yoda

Well LWX AFD this afternoon likes it LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure that builds over the region Sunday is forecast to slowly shift off the eastern seaboard through Tuesday. An increasing south to southeasterly flow will lead to the return of above normal temperatures on Tuesday with highs generally in the mid to upper 50s to lower 60s along with mostly dry conditions. A strong frontal system is forecast to impact the region late Tuesday through early Thursday morning. Ahead of the main cold front, a warm front will lift north of the region by late Tuesday evening. Showers may start affecting the region as early as late Tuesday evening, but are most likely on Wednesday. A strong upper level trough going nearly negative combined with strong jet support in both the upper and lower parts of the atmosphere will lead to an increased threat for severe weather on Wednesday. Increasing CAPE due to temperatures forecast to rise into the mid to upper 60s and a favorable shear environment suggests the primary severe threats at this time is damaging wind gusts. Based on recent model guidance, it seems the main threat window for severe weather will be Wednesday into early Wednesday evening when peak heating is maximized and the front is forecast pass through the region. SPC continues to highlight areas along and east of the I-81 in slight risk for severe weather. The cold front is forecast to pass through our region sometime late Wednesday evening. Behind the frontal passage, rising pressures will lead to threat for widespread strong to damaging wind gusts Thursday into early Friday. Wind advisories may be needed Thursday into early Friday. West to northwest winds along with an upper level trough passing overhead will lead to threat for upslope snow showers along the Allgheny front on Thursday. Gradient winds are forecast to slowly weaken on Friday leading to a return of drier and cooler conditions.

I forget, during our severe weather threats, was there a global model that stood out as being "better" than the others?

Morning AFD from LWX LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will progress offshore on Tuesday, allowing low-level flow to become southerly. Those southerly winds will start to advect warmer air back into the area, with temperatures climbing into the 50s beneath mostly cloudy skies. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, attention will turn to a dynamic storm system approaching the area from the west. Model guidance is in good agreement that a potent shortwave will eject from the Desert Southwest onto the Central/Southern Plains during the day Tuesday. Strong cyclogenesis will ensue in response, with the resultant surface low tracking northeastward from KS/OK toward the Great Lakes by Wednesday. This system will have a very strong and broad wind field, with southerly winds in advance of the system drawing moisture northward across much of the eastern half of the CONUS. This increase in low-level moisture will result in the development of surface based instability, which when combined with a very strong wind field aloft, raises concerns about severe thunderstorms. Yesterday morning, SPC placed much of the forecast area in a very rare day 6 Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. While the finer scale details are still yet to be worked out, this is a synoptically evident setup for cool season severe thunderstorms during the day Wednesday. Along with the potential for thunderstorms, we`ll also receive some appreciable rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday. At the moment, most guidance is showing in the neighborhood of a half of an inch to an inch of rain. Given ongoing drought across much of the area, and dry conditions over the last week, this appears as though it will be a largely beneficial rain. Synoptic scale winds (background winds outside of thunderstorms) could also approach Wind Advisory criteria, both in advance of, and behind the system. Winds will be out of the south ahead of the system on Wednesday, and then west to northwesterly behind the system`s cold front Thursday into Thursday night. Forecast spread begins to increase a bit by Friday, but it`s possible that the strong northwesterly winds could linger a bit into Friday morning.

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/GarrettZoneSplit Garrett county MD is being split in two

Mention of severe thunderstorms in this afternoon's HWO for Wednesday

Yes I have

Thanks all... appreciate it

Heading to England for the first time (first time overseas actually) last week of March. Going to be in the London area... besides the usual touristy attractions, anything interesting to see or do?

Morning AFD from LWX talking it up LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper troughing will depart off to the east, and high pressure will build overhead at the surface on Monday. Sunny skies, light winds, and below normal temperatures are expected, with highs in the mid 40s for most (30s mountains). High pressure will progress offshore on Tuesday, causing winds to become southerly. This will lead to a warming trend in temperatures, despite an increase in mid-high level clouds. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s for most. A potent storm system will take shape over the center of the country during the day Tuesday, before tracking northeastward into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Nearly all guidance shows a highly dynamic upper trough ejecting from the Four Corners region toward the Southern Plains Tuesday. As this upper trough closes off, rapid cyclogenesis will ensue over the Plains in response, with low pressure deepening rapidly as it tracks from near KS/OK Tuesday morning to near Chicago by Wednesday morning. A very strong wind field will accompany this storm system, with strong southerly low-level flow drawing moisture northward across much of the eastern half of the CONUS. This increase in low-level moisture is expected to lead to the development of surface based instability. The combination of strong winds aloft combined with surface based instability raises concerns for severe thunderstorms locally during the day Wednesday. Yesterday morning, SPC issued a very rare day 7 outlook for severe thunderstorms that clipped far southern portions of our forecast area. While there`s always a fair amount of uncertainty associated with the forecast this far out, this system checks a lot of boxes synoptically for cool season severe weather, and certainly bears watching over the upcoming week. While we`ll also receive a fair amount of rain Tuesday night into Wednesday, flooding doesn`t appear to be a major concern with this system. The strongest synoptic scale ascent with this system will pass to our northwest into the Great Lakes, and most ensemble members show around a half of an inch to an inch of rain. Even the highest end members show around an inch and a half, which shouldn`t cause major issues, given the ongoing drought, and continued stretch of dry weather we`ve had over the past week. Aside from the severe weather threat, synoptic scale winds may also be a concern. Most guidance shows a 60-80 knot low-level jet at 850 hPa moving through during the day Wednesday, suggesting that there`s some potential for gusts to near Wind Advisory criteria in southerly flow, even outside of any thunderstorms. A strong cold front will move through the area Wednesday night as the system tracks northeastward into the St. Lawrence Valley. Strong cold advection and gusty winds will ensue in post frontal west to northwesterly flow Wednesday night into Thursday. Dry conditions are forecast to the east of the mountains on Wednesday night into Thursday, but upslope rain showers will change over to snow in the Alleghenies as colder air filters in. It will be windy for all on Thursday, with northwesterly gusts potentially nearing Wind Advisory levels.

@Kmlwx

Also talk in this mornings AFD from LWX .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A large surface ridge over the OH Valley moves across the Mid- Atlantic, then out to sea Sunday into the start of next week. Cold and brisk conditions Sunday as highs struggle to reach the upper 30s to low 40s, and northwest winds gust around 25-35 mph. Dry conditions likely through Tuesday. Very cold Sunday night as lows drop to the upper teens to low 20s, with wind chills in the single digits to teens. Temperatures gradually warm through mid week, going from 40s on Monday to 60s on Wednesday. The next chance for widespread precipitation looks to be Wednesday into Thursday when a potent upper trough and strong cold front approach the area. There are still timing differences between the global models, though all show a strong weather system impacting the region. If these trends continue and given the strong kinematic environment in the model guidance, it is possible our area is affected by strong winds, heavy rainfall, and strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. There is still too much uncertainty to speak with much confidence given this is a week away, but it is worth monitoring as we head into next week.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley... A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D5/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains. Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level moisture advection continues. By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including strong tornadoes. ...D7/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast... The ECMWF/ECS, which has been several days ahead of other extended guidance on with this upcoming pattern, has trended toward greater moisture penetration into the Southeast US and east of the Appalachians. Low to mid 60s dewpoints in the presence of a very strong wind field will support a large area of severe weather threat from the Southeast to the Carolinas and perhaps into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Storm mode and specific hazards will be impacted by prior day convection and the overall evolution of the deepening surface low and associated cold front, but a great enough threat exists for 15% severe weather probabilities for D7/Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 02/27/2025

SE portion of the LWX CWA outlooked on the Day 7 from SPC

Until the playoffs

At least Ovechkin didn't score

Let us know lol

Can I come?

We also had a poster on here have it narrowly missing his place... think a few streets over?

Where Bob Chill now lives

50 to 60 percent chance of one inch or more in DC metro lol

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 VAZ038-050-056-507-190315- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1500Z-250220T0300Z/ Greene-Orange-Spotsylvania-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Greene, Orange, and Spotsylvania Counties, and Northern Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From 10 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening commute.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 VAZ036-037-190315- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0009.250219T1200Z-250220T1200Z/ /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1200Z-250220T0000Z/ Nelson-Albemarle- 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Albemarle and Nelson Counties. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 VAZ057-190315- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1800Z-250220T0600Z/ King George- 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 3 inches. * WHERE...King George County. * WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This snowfall will fall during a portion of the Wednesday evening commute, with temperatures well below freezing, which could cause roads to become very slick during a period of high traffic volume.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 VAZ025-504-508-190315- /O.EXT.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1200Z-250220T0000Z/ Augusta-Eastern Highland-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Central Virginia Blue Ridge, and Augusta and Eastern Highland Counties. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 MDZ017-190315- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0009.250219T1500Z-250220T1500Z/ /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.250219T1800Z-250220T0600Z/ St. Marys- 210 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...St. Marys County. * WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes.