yoda

Afternoon AFD from LWX KEY MESSAGE 2...A potent winter storm with multiple hazards is likely to impact the region Friday into the weekend. A potent upper trough and Arctic cold front are set to track across the region Friday into the weekend. Ahead of the front, a leading shortwave trough quickly traverses our area during the day Friday, which could bring a burst of snow east of the Alleghenies. Accumulating snow along/east of I-81 will have to contend with more marginal temperatures in the low to mid 30s. However, the strong cold air advection and substantial lift in the DGZ could possibly overcome any marginal temps at the surface. Stay tuned to the forecast in the coming days for any possible impacts from snow on Friday. For the mountains, a steady period of moderate to possibly heavy snow is possible, with several inches of accumulating snow being noted in much of the model guidance. Additionally, the increasing winds will lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility issues. Snow squalls are possible Friday evening into Friday night as the base of the upper trough slams into the Alleghenies. This is a very favorable synoptic setup for upslope snow, though it is going to be short-lived as forcing quickly departs, and moisture is more limited due to abundant ice cover on Lake Erie and Lake Huron. As the upper trough digs right over our area Friday night, it is likely to induce a sudden onset of windy conditions, especially in the wind-favored climo areas (mountains & along/north of I-66). The 500mb height fields in the ECMWF and GFS show intense ripples within a very sharp gradient over the Appalachians - a signal that usually leads to mixing of stronger winds aloft with northwesterly downslope winds. Most of the guidance has wind gusts of 35-45 mph across the area, with 45-55 mph in the mountains. Higher gusts are noted in the ensemble guidance, thus Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings may eventually be needed for parts of the area. Frigid temperatures return to the area for this weekend, with highs in the teens to 20s each day (maybe getting to around freezing in parts of central VA). Lows Saturday morning drop to the teens, then likely see single digits to low teens areawide for Sunday morning. Wind chills are going to be in the low single digits to -5F or lower each night, with -10F to -20F in the mountains. Interestingly, the GFS has a progressive clipper passing through on Sunday that could bring additional light snow, but confidence in that is very low given model uncertainty. Otherwise, dry and cold conditions prevail this weekend into the start of next week.

Not 67?

Idea is there on the 12z GFS for something mid-month as many have mentioned

Unfortunate on the 12z GFS on the 15th for most of us... Eastern Shore cleans up. Idea is there tbh as others have mentioned

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1014 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-504-VAZ053>056-501-502-506-526-527-040100- District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun- Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Warrenton, Turnbull, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 1014 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 ...POTENTIAL WINTER COMMUTING HAZARD FOR THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING... There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the Wednesday morning commute. A period of snow is POSSIBLE (a 30 percent chance) Wednesday morning across the Washington metro areas with up to an inch possible on area roads. If this threat does materialize during the Wednesday morning rush-hour, many roads could quickly turn icy. This could lead to dangerous traveling conditions, multiple accidents, and extensive delays. If commuting Wednesday morning, be aware of the POSSIBILITY of significant travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework options. Stay tuned for updates on this potential winter weather episode.

Interesting... 12z HRRR

Im taking the HRRR as gospel

I'll take a nice inch refresher

@CAPE https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/47781378/ravens-hire-bears-declan-doyle-oc-sources-say

Good luck all down there. While I am disappointed... I hope you all get decent snows

Thank you for that knowledge

126

Fwiw, 108 h5 on 12z AIGFS

Hmmmm... 13z NBM

Look at 12z lol

12z ICON 132 h5 138 h5

12z ICON h5 at 120

18z euro to us thinking the next weekend threat may be dead

18z euro said hold up

Yeah, I'm on my way

@WxUSAF @MN Transplant @Terpeast @Eskimo Joe I assume this is more for the mountains or for us too? Updated morning AFD mentioned this KEY MESSAGE 3...Light accumulating snow possible midweek. A quick moving clipper system will cross the region during the late Wed night/early Thu time period. While models only predict trace to 0.02 inches water equivalent with this clipper system, this amount falling with temperatures in the low teens and single digits may cause result in SLRs as high as 40 to 1 assuming the snow is able to reach the ground in such a dry air mass. At the very least, a special commuting hazard statement looks likely and in the worst case a Winter Wx Advisory may be required. &&

Anyone know last time the three major airports went below zero actual temperature? Thinking we have a few nights upcoming where we will do so.

BWI and IAD report +PL for official obs at 10am

Monday night is going to be ridiculous cold... already seeing forecasts of below zero actual temps i95 corridor and west