yoda

Okay 13z NBM... I see you

RNK went ahead and issued... thats about 60 hours for them URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1244 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059- WVZ042>044-507-508-220400- /O.NEW.KRNK.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T1800Z/ Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes- Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery- Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt- Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania- Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers- Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- Including the cities of Danbury, Pulaski, Marion, Wytheville, Hot Springs, Hinton, Covington, Blacksburg, Rainelle, Duo, Quinwood, Floyd, Amherst, New Castle, Lexington, Union, Lewisburg, Alderson, Whitetop, Stuart, Roanoke, Yadkinville, Yanceyville, Appomattox, Volney, Troutdale, Bluefield, Fincastle, Sparta, Rocky Mount, Hix, Independence, Salem, Buena Vista, Danville, Clifton Forge, Eden, Galax, Lynchburg, Boone, Radford, Flat Top, Bedford, Tazewell, Dobson, Martinsville, Keysville, Bland, Wilkesboro, South Boston, West Jefferson, White Sulphur Springs, and Pearisburg 1244 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 8 and 14 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest North Carolina, central, south central, southwest, and west central Virginia, and southeast West Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

You mean tomorrow PM?

RNK will probably have watches up in the next 6-12 hours

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Charleston WV 1228 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 WVZ523-526-220130- /O.NEW.KRLX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T1200Z/ /O.CON.KRLX.WW.Y.0005.260121T2100Z-260122T1500Z/ Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Randolph- Including the cities of Harman and Snowshoe 1228 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory today and tonight, mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations around a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. For the Winter Storm Watch this weekend, heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 15 inches possible. Locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Northwest Pocahontas and Southeast Randolph Counties. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Saturday morning through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening and Thursday morning commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

RLX has issued WSWatches

12z UKIE close up snow maps 10:1 KUCHERA

Now its time for our fab friend, the GooFuS

Gimme - 12z ICON at 96

I see... 1016am HWO... its in all 3 sections/areas https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=HWO This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday There is a high threat of a high impact winter storm Saturday night through early Monday morning. Potential impacts include significant travel delays, closures, and threats to life and property. Plan ahead to minimize impact to you and your family. Dangerously cold wind chills are also possible at times from Friday night and through early next week.

12z RGEM h5 and precipitation at 84

12z RGEM h5 at 60

72 h5 12z NAM 78 h5 6z NAM

12z NAM h5 54

Since we all have nothing better to look at right now... 12z NAM at 45 h5

So... we love you too?

Alright. I will see what I can do tomorrow. My Friday is tonight at work (9pm to 7am) so as long as i don't fall asleep i should be able to make it for a bit

Do you have a location for that?

Oh

Do we still want to do a meet-up on Friday afternoon/evening?

Morning discussion from LWX... note the bold and underlined... DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Confidence of a significant winter storm across the region remains high Saturday into Sunday, but confidence in exact amounts of snow versus ice is lower especially south and east. Ingredients are coming together to produce a significant winter storm across the region this weekend. Based on the latest guidance, wintry precipitation (snow) may arrive as early as Saturday morning for west-central VA before spreading east and northeast slowly through the day. Snow then continues Saturday night into Sunday morning, then could mix with sleet and freezing rain for some areas Sunday into Sunday night. While deterministic guidance continue to show some run-to-run variability, the overall trend has been bringing the higher QPF amounts toward central Virginia, with a potential for mix wintry precipitation Sunday afternoon and night. In a multi- day sense, global ensemble probabilities remain very high for seeing 6+ inches of snow. This comes with the presumed snow- to-liquid ratio of 10:1 which this system will not be given the Arctic nature of the air mass. Ratios could be considerably higher yielding a fluffier snow. With the parent features still across the more barren high latitudes, models may take another day or two to resolve such features with better precision (note: recon flights are expected to take place near the Southwest CONUS later today - that`s where models have been most sensitive to changes, so hopefully this additional data will help hone in on details). The details will be important in determining any precipitation type transitions. However, given the very cold air locked in at and near the surface with strong Arctic high pressure anchored firmly to our north, plain rain is highly unlikely anywhere in the region. It will therefore come down to snow versus ice, both of which could be significant and highly impactful across a widespread area. On the synoptic pattern side of things, many ingredients are in place to produce the mentioned winter storm. On Saturday, Arctic high pressure (1045-1050 mb) across the Midwest eventually reaches New England by the evening as a still robust 1040 mb anticyclone. This yields the familiar cold air damming wedge setup which stretches down into the southeastern U.S. Looking aloft, a split jet structure is evident with deep cyclonic flow in the northern stream and a progressive feature ejecting out of the Four Corners (this is the feature that introduces the most uncertainty/model variability). The downstream confluent flow will aid in ample forcing in the form of overrunning across vast portions of the central/eastern U.S. While the main surface low sweeps across the Gulf Coast states, a broad area of isentropically driven precipitation spreads over the frigid air mass to the north. Based on the latest guidance and trends, precipitation type issues could arise Sunday/Sunday night. An energy transfer eventually unfolds Sunday afternoon/evening which focuses to deepening low pressure off the Outer Banks of NC. Eventually, this features pulls away from the coast late Sunday night which gradually brings the brunt of the precipitation to an end, though some light precipitation (perhaps freezing drizzle east/upslope snow showers west) could linger into Monday morning. With the system not arriving until Saturday evening sometime, now is the time to prepare for this winter storm. Check back at the office website (weather.gov/lwx) as well as the winter page as the system moves into the Day 1-3 period (weather.gov/lwx/winter).

Zoomed in 10:1 Kuchera