yoda

DCA 86 and IAD 82

Wouldn't mind that 00z NAM sim radar at 00z/03z Tues... that looks nice Rather would take the 00z HRRR though lol

Pretty good looking sim radar on the 18z NAM at 00z/03z Tuesday 12z and 18z NAM NEST sim radars looked decent too

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to intensify as it moves northeastward from the Lower Great Lakes into southeast Canada through the day Monday morning in tandem with a leading shortwave trough. A trailing cold front is expected to push east/southeast into the upper OH River Valley and lower MS Valley/Southeast early Monday morning as a second low-amplitude wave traverses the eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along this front as it continues to push into New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and into the southeast states through the late afternoon and evening hours. ...Central Gulf States... Strong to severe thunderstorms may be ongoing by 12z Monday as a squall line forced along the cold front continues to push southeast across MS and AL. A combination of rich low-level moisture ahead of the line, diurnal heating, strong low to mid-level flow, and broad scale ascent ahead of the secondary upper wave should help maintain convective intensity into the afternoon hours. A corridor of damaging/severe winds, and potentially embedded tornadoes, appears probable from central MS into AL and western GA. ...Central Appalachians... Thunderstorm development along the front is expected by early to mid-afternoon from the upper OH Valley southward into the Mid-Atlantic region. Returning moisture through the Carolinas northward into eastern PA/western NY, combined with mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, should support sufficient buoyancy for deep convection, though buoyancy values should diminish with northward extent across the central Appalachians. Moderate flow within the lowest few kilometers should support a damaging wind threat as convection matures along the front across the upper OH Valley. Further south, stronger ascent ahead of the secondary upper wave should promote better storm organization, including the potential for semi-discrete cells and/or organized linear segments. Medium-range guidance suggests low-level winds will strengthen across the Mid-Atlantic region as a weak secondary low deepens through late afternoon in the lee of the Appalachians, which may support an enlargement of the 0-3 km hodograph and a locally higher tornado threat across the Carolinas into VA. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025

@high risk @George BM @Eskimo Joe @Kmlwx LWX talking up Monday severe threat in this morning's AFD: By Monday, the conglomerate upper trough will approach and then cross the Mid-Atlantic. The surface cold front is rather potent. There is some spread in the guidance as to the depth, speed, and amplitude of the upper trough especially by Monday night, with some suggesting a negative tilt. The more amplified guidance develops a stronger wave of low pressure nearby or overhead Monday evening, which would result in more widespread showers and thunderstorms with perhaps multiple rounds. This may also cause the surface front to slow a bit, which would mean more (beneficial) rain. Regardless of the exact trough evolution, guidance is in good agreement on (1) modest surface heating through broken clouds ahead of the trough resulting in 500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and (2) strong SW flow of 40-50 knots in the 850-700 hPa layer. These factors would lend to a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. All severe modes (i.e. damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes) would be possible, but hail and tornadoes would be more likely if storms were to remain more discrete and/or surface winds were to become more backed (this is most likely in the more amplified scenario, as is a more organized line or lines of convection which would heighten the damaging wind risk).

I see its apparently from down near the CHO area https://fire.airnow.gov/#8/38.292/-77.684 Also, I thought smoke was FU... its K? Area Forecast Matrices National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 236 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025 DCZ001-292000- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 236 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Date Sat 03/29/25 Sun 03/30/25 Mon 03/31/25 EDT 3hrly 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 UTC 3hrly 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 Max/Min 84 63 78 63 79 Temp 57 57 68 80 84 75 69 66 64 63 73 77 77 71 67 65 64 64 71 75 77 71 Dewpt 45 46 48 45 46 51 53 53 53 54 55 55 56 57 55 57 58 59 61 60 61 61 RH 64 67 49 29 27 43 57 63 67 72 53 47 48 61 65 75 81 84 71 60 58 71 Wind dir SW SW SW SW SW S SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S S S S S SW Wind spd 8 6 8 11 10 6 6 6 6 8 10 12 11 9 9 10 10 10 13 14 13 10 Wind gust 18 20 23 21 26 27 26 20 Clouds B1 B2 B2 B1 B2 B1 B2 B2 B2 B1 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 PoP 12hr 10 10 20 30 80 QPF 12hr 0 0 0.01 0.03 0.16 Rain shwrs S S S S C C S S D D L Tstms S C C C Obvis K PF PF

Where is the smoke coming from? Its in the majority of the zones for this morning DCZ001-291000- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 234 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025 .OVERNIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Patchy smoke in the morning. Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Hmmm... sounds tasty for early April - from this afternoon LWX AFD LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Model guidance is in reasonably good agreement that a potent shortwave and associated surface low will track northeastward from the Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley on Monday. A trailing cold front will extend southwestward from the low, and will approach the area from the Ohio Valley over the course of the day. Large scale ascent downstream of an approaching broader longwave trough will lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms across the area Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Prior to the storms, it should be a very warm day, with highs climbing into the mid 70s to lower 80s. When combined with dewpoints climbing into the upper 50s to near 60 and cooling temperatures aloft, this will result in the development of surface based instability, with many model solutions showing around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Winds aloft will also be rather impressive, with a low-level jet of around 50 knots at 850 hPa, and continued strong winds up through the tropopause. Such a combination of instability and ample deep layer shear may lead to the development of severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday evening. SPC currently has all of the forecast area outlooked in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday.

True. 12z NAM soundings were intriguing though, granted it's at the end of its run at 81 and 84 hours

Oh

Maybe something in the Sunday into Tuesday timeframe of next week? Large 15% day 7 from Michigan south to the GoM... day 8 has a mention of us but no outlooked area

Lol USA finishes 4th in the Concacaf Nations League

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 60 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Southwest Kentucky Missouri Bootheel Northern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon over eastern Arkansas and spread eastward across the watch area through the evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern with these storms. However, sufficient low level shear will pose some risk of a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west southwest of Memphis TN to 45 miles southeast of Clarksville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

12z Euro has upper 80s and low 90s in its super long range

https://wtop.com/local-sports/2025/03/smu-hires-maryland-ad-damon-evans-for-the-same-role-with-the-acc-school-in-dallas/ @Maestrobjwa I believe you were the one wondering about this

Orioles sign Gibson https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/03/orioles-sign-kyle-gibson.html

I hate the wind

Lol https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/44336896/usmnt-pochettino-wearing-shirt-not-enough Panama beat the US to tonight 1-0

FWIW https://247sports.com/college/maryland/article/kevin-willard-blasts-damon-evans-reveals-why-he-hasnt-signed-a-new-contract-as-maryland-basketball-coach-247348879/

That escalated quickly in DC metro

Radar looks a lot better now for us than 30 minutes ago

Ripping at work

Yes they are now

TVS sig near Madison