yoda

That line should be in DC metro around 8pm... Tornado warned portion is on path for the metro

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 550 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southern Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia... Central Rockingham County in western Virginia... Southwestern Warren County in northwestern Virginia... Northern Page County in northwestern Virginia... West central Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia... * Until 630 PM EDT. * At 549 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Mount Jackson, or 16 miles southwest of Woodstock, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Luray and Mount Jackson around 555 PM EDT. Sperryville around 615 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Kimball, Kings Crossing, Compton, Shenandoah Caverns, Leaksville, Hamburg, Fourway, Quicksburg, Fairview, and Bentonville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3861 7874 3872 7878 3885 7829 3865 7820 TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 256DEG 36KT 3867 7867 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

Tornado Warning near Mount Jackson

Looks like some hookage starting in western Spotsylvania county

TOR POSSIBLE tag on the severe warned EZF cell And also on the severe warned line in the i81 corridor

Maybe a lil something SW of EZF?

40/20 tor probs

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 350 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland Central and Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Northern and Eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon from 455 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop late this afternoon and continue through the evening as storms progress from west to east across the Watch. A few supercells are forecast with an attendant risk for a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts, and isolated large hail. Additional thunderstorm bands may also pose a risk for damaging gusts before all of this activity moves east of the coast. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east of South Hill VA to 30 miles northwest of Philadelphia PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

Tornado Watch until midnight for BR eastward to Delmarva

One of the best written AFD from LWX 26 27 28 032 FXUS61 KLWX 302011 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 411 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track through the area this evening, before departing off to our northeast tomorrow. High pressure will build into the area on Sunday, and remain in control over the area through much of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Synoptic overview: Current water vapor imagery shows a vigorous upper low centered off to our west over OH/WV. Moisture continues to stream northward into the area at in advance of this disturbance. Further to the west, a prominent mid-level dry slot is wrapping into the system from the southwest, extending from the Tennessee Valley into West Virginia. A broken, disorganized zone of showers is ongoing within the moist advection regime at low to mid levels, and currently extends from the central Virginia Piedmont northwestward to western Maryland. While some intensification of this activity can`t be ruled out, the expectation is for it to remain just showers. Further west, a more intense band of showers and thunderstorms has developed within the mid-level dry slot, and extends northward from southwest Virginia into central West Virginia. This area of storms is expected to intensify further as it tracks eastward into our area later this afternoon into this evening. As we move forward in time, the entire system will continue to gradually translate eastward. In any given location, on and off showers will be possible for a few hours, before a more focused zone of showers and thunderstorms passes through during a 1-2 hour window. Those stronger storms will reach far western portions of the forecast area over the next 1-2 hours, the Blue Ridge by around 5-7 PM, and then the I-95 corridor around 7-10 PM. These storms will produce the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms, and may also result in some isolated instances of flash flooding. Later tonight a surface low associated with the system will start to deepen overhead as it tracks along a frontal boundary which will extend east-northeastward across northern MD and southern PA. As this occurs, a secondary deformation driven area of precipitation will develop on the backside of the low. This may lead to an additional 2-4 hour period of rain later tonight, with embedded moderate to heavy rain. This activity should be strongest in the vicinity of the front across northern Maryland. An overview of various weather hazards follows... Flash Flooding: There has a been a pronounced northwestward trend in the track of the surface low and the resultant axis of anticipated heaviest rainfall over the past 12-24 hours. While there is still a non-zero chance for flooding, the magnitude of the threat for flooding locally appears to be shifting northward and trending downward in magnitude. All locations should experience a brief period of heavy rainfall in association with the thunderstorms in the north- south oriented band currently over West Virginia. Given recent heavy rainfall, it won`t take much to cause flooding issues. 1 hour Flash Flood guidance is actually below one inch across much of the area, and under 1.5 inches over the vast majority of the forecast area. While the trend has been downward in expected rainfall totals, even brief periods of heavy rainfall may lead to isolated instances of flooding as the storms move through. Any supercells could locally enhance rainfall rates beyond what one might expect with PWATs around 1.5 inches. The second round of rainfall later tonight should be most intense across northern Maryland, where the overall threat for flooding will be maximized. Overall, totals are expected to be around 1-3 inches to north of I-70, with localized higher totals in excess of 3 inches. Further south, totals may average less than one inch, but localized higher totals that could cause flash flooding issues may still be possible. A Flood Watch for flash flooding remains in effect for the entire area through tonight. Severe Thunderstorms: Model soundings show an environment characterized by deep moisture, with nearly saturated profiles. MLCAPE is expected to increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg across much of the area over the next few hours. Deep layer shear in also increasing from the south and west, with effective bulk shear anticipated to increase to around 40-60 knots. Low-level shear on the other hand is much weaker, with only around 10-20 knots of southerly flow at 850 hPa. Strong deep layer shear should result in the development of supercells. In terms of individual threats, damaging wind potential may be a bit lower than one might expect with supercells around. DCAPE is very low (around 200-400 J/kg), suggesting that downburst potential is low. Low-level lapse rates aren`t overly impressive either (around 7.5 C/km), and the background low-level wind field is on the weaker side. While a few isolated instances of damaging winds may be possible, it doesn`t appear to be an overly impressive setup for damaging winds. It`s also worth noting that with saturated soils, it likely won`t take much to bring down trees. With supercells around, a few large hail reports can`t be ruled out, but the environment doesn`t appear to be the most favorable for large hail either. Profiles are saturated, a large portion of the CAPE is located below the freezing level, and mid-level lapse rates are poor, each of which work against efficient hail production. The presence of supercells and the strong updrafts they produce would be a favorable aspect for hail production. The tornado threat is a bit more interesting. Moist profiles with low LCLs, a supercellular mode, and ample 0-3 km CAPE (which will lead to efficient stretching and tilting of environmental vorticity) are factors that would favor the development of tornadoes. On the other hand, low level shear and resultant SRH are both on the weaker side, which limits the amount of environmental vorticity present to stretched into the vertical. A few tornadoes appear possible, but at the same time it also doesn`t look like an environment conducive for the development of stronger tornadoes. A Tornado Watch is currently in effect for western portions of the forecast area, and much of the rest of the area remains in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms from SPC. Another potential threat worth mentioning is increasing synoptic winds within northwesterly flow on the backside of the low later tonight. Model soundings show around 40-50 knots of flow developing just above the surface. While most of this wind likely won`t make it down to the surface, gusts of 20-30 knots may be possible later tonight, and some localized higher gusts can`t be ruled out.

I think our line we are watching is in WV right now for this evening

Tornado Watch up for i81 corridor for now

16z HRRR looks to bring in a line of supercells through the i95 corridor between 6pm and 9pm... then rotates in a complex of heavy rain after midnight for N VA/DC/MD

Tornado Watch coming soon for western part of the CWA

Tornado Warnings starting from RLX in S WV

Looks like we should reach into the lower 80s for temps

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with 55-70 mph gusts capable of wind damage extending from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Southeast. The potential for a few tornadoes exists from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over the OH-TN Valleys with this feature forecast to move into the Mid-Atlantic states/Carolinas by late evening. In response to this shortwave trough, a deepening surface cyclone will move from the KY/WV border east-northeastward along a quasi-stationary front into southeast PA/NJ by evening. A trailing cold front will move across parts of the Southeast, Carolinas, and Virginia. Wind profiles across the warm sector of the deepening cyclone will be seasonably strong, but instability is expected to be tempered by weak midlevel lapse rates and substantial cloud cover. As large-scale ascent with the approaching shortwave trough develops across the warm sector, thunderstorms are expected to develop along and near the cold front. A mix of cells and linear bands will gradually evolve into broken band convective structures with time as storms move east. Strengthening 700-mb flow (40-50 kt) amidst diurnally steepened 0-2 km lapse rates will favor strong to severe gusts. Damaging winds (55-70 mph) are expected to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado threat will exist primarily with bowing segments. Farther north, the northern extent of a destabilizing warm sector immediately ahead of the deepening surface low, will favor an increasing severe risk this afternoon. Scattered storm development is initially forecast near the higher terrain with additional cellular development expected (consistent signal in recent HRRR runs) in the northern VA to southeast PA corridor late this afternoon and especially into the evening. Given the moist low levels and favorably shaped hodographs in proximity to the surface low, have enlarged 5-percent tornado probabilities for a supercell-tornado risk. Some consideration for higher tornado probabilities was given, but confidence was too low at this time. Damaging gusts and large hail are also possible with the stronger storms.

10% tor probs were considered... woah @Kmlwx @high risk

Probably not, but LWX did mention the threat in its AFD oking at tonight, as the low slowly pulls away, some showers likely linger on the back side of the low as well. One thing of concern is the 850mb wind field on the back side of the low during the pre-dawn hours Saturday morning. Will have to watch for some sneaky strong wind gusts if there is a heavy enough shower to bring that wind down to the surface. The hi-res guidance has a concerning amount of agreement on some high-end wind gusts around 40 to 50 mph potentially reaching the surface, so it is something I am growing increasingly concerned about. This is something to keep an eye on, given that this would occur during a very sensitive time period, being during the overnight. Should this trend continue, a short-duration Wind Advisory may need to be considered. Perhaps if things are still convective in nature, they could be handled with short-fused convective warnings as well.

I don't see that on their Twitter page or main school page

Yup Farther north across VA/MD/DE, confidence regarding storm mode is lower, with some guidance suggesting the potential for discrete/semi-discrete supercells ahead of the front. These storms would have the potential for severe wind/hail, and potentially pose a tornado risk with stronger/more sustained storms. If confidence increases regarding the expected coverage of severe storms in this area, then higher severe probabilities may be warranted with the 1630z Convective Outlook.

@Ellinwood - on board and good for tornado potential

Was it supposed to be mostly sunny and mostly blue skies this morning?

Also, zones now say sunny and hot with highs around 90 for next Wednesday and Thursday