yoda

Hurricane Otis report out from NHC. Looks like they accepted the 205mph wind gust

No thanks. Time for some sun and 60s/70s

Too bad no real instability

Oh (9:41am LWX AFD morning update) NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Light rain east of the Blue Ridge continues through the morning, with pockets of heavier showers and a few thunderstorms moving through the Alleghenies, Potomac Highlands, and northern MD. The leading edge of heavier showers/storms has started to move into Garrett County, and will push south/east through the afternoon. High temperatures today reach the mid to upper 60s to perhaps 70 degrees. Winds also increase out of the south/southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts 25-35 mph this morning into midday. The heaviest precipitation looks arrive later this afternoon and into this evening (3-8pm) as the main cold front crosses the region. While instability is expected to be low, generally around 200-400 J/kg of MLCAPE, the forcing aloft from an approaching upper trough and strong kinematics will likely result in at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. A line of moderate to heavy showers, with embedded thunderstorms, crosses the area this afternoon to early evening. The strongest storms today are likely to produce gusts of 45-55mph, and some could possibly gust up to 60mph. There is a non-zero threat for a tornado or two given the strong shear, with current RAP analysis indicating 35-50KT of 0-1km shear, and around 50-60KT of bulk shear. Instability is going to be the main limiting factor, though it won`t take much to get some storms going given the strong forcing/shear. SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms to most of the CWA through this evening.

Also, from yesterday afternoon AFD from LWX Warmer air arrives on Tuesday with a warm front feature knocking on the Mid-Atlantic`s doorstep. Precipitation chances increase Tuesday through Thursday with Tuesday likely being the least impactful locally. A trailing low pressure system center across the northern Great Plains will begin moving further east throughout the middle portion of the week. Some signals in the ensembles and machine- learning guidance hints at the potential for some severe weather in the form of damaging winds for the mid-week system. Locally, the best chances would be if the trough becomes negatively tilted as it approaches the Mid-Atlantic. There is still considerable uncertainty with this system with respect to potential impacts. We will continue to monitor this. In other news, high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will mainly be in the 60s for most areas with even 70 degrees being possible in some areas on Wednesday. Winds will also be gusty Tuesday to Thursday with southeasterly winds gusting 15 to 25 knots at times, especially in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Hmmm Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to show a powerful mid- to upper-level trough ejecting into the central U.S. by late Tuesday into Wednesday. A deep cyclone is currently progged by most ensemble members to move from the central Great Plains into the Great Lakes vicinity. Preceding this upper trough, an antecedent re-charging of steep lapse rates associated with an elevated mixed layer over the southern High Plains is forecast. A few days of airmass modification, both in terms of ambient temperature and moistening over the Gulf Basin, will occur in wake of frontal passage on Saturday. Northward moisture return beneath the aforementioned EML will probably result in a substantial warm sector by late afternoon Tuesday and into Wednesday farther east. Model run-to-run continuity is such that there is increased confidence in the introduction of 15-percent severe-risk highlights with the expected eastward progression of the trough. Will defer the possibility of an additional area farther east on Thursday until confidence in details related to earlier days becomes more focused. ..Smith.. 02/22/2024

Anyway, hoping for 1-2" of snow here

Thats what wusa9.com is reporting fwiw

Sources say they are all accounted for and will be alright

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 949 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track across southern Virginia tonight. High pressure will build across the central and eastern U.S. through the first half of next week. Another frontal system and area of low pressure may approach late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Snow has begun across far western areas based on sfc obs at 2G4. In addition, the snowfall rate satellite produdct from a MetOp-C pass at 0155Z indicated that snow was falling aloft across northern MD and VA west of US-29 at that time, but was still not reaching the ground yet per sfc obs. The wetbulb zero height on the 00Z IAD sounding was only 740 feet indicating the p-type should be snow here once precip makes it to the ground. While the fcst remains generally on track, there are some p-type issues across the southern half and southeastern portions of the CWA where sfc obs and model fields show a pressure trough/wind shift from NE to SE. This sfc trough/wind shift line currently lies along US-29. While the winds should shift overnight around as low pressure passes to the south, there air is still mild in those areas with temps in the mid to upper 40s. Low level temps and thicknesses in those areas support more rain than snow especially across southern MD, Charlottesville, and Fredericksburg. Believe snow totals in those areas are more than likely to be on the lower end of the range or even less with more rain than snow. As previous fcstr mentioned, there could be multiple snow bands that develop across the region overnight. Latest model output continue to suggest this with one band setting up across southern Pennsylvania and another one setting up across northern VA into central MD with a minima in QPF across northern MD east of Cumberland and across the eastern WV panhandle. The snow should end no later than 12Z Saturday everywhere.

Mesoscale Discussion 0148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...The Upper Ohio River Valley into the central Appalachians Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 170040Z - 170445Z SUMMARY...A swath of moderate to heavy snow is expected to spread east across the upper Ohio River Valley into the central Appalachians through the evening hours. DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours, a semi-persistent band of moderate to heavy snow has shifted east across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley. Surface observations and web cams under this band have shown visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile at times, indicative of moderate to heavy snowfall rates. Snowfall reports over the past 1-3 hours support this idea with multiple reports of 3-5 inch snowfall totals since early afternoon. Recent upper-air analyses continue to show favorable overlap of broad synoptic ascent ahead of the approaching low-amplitude upper wave with a more focused zone of mesoscale ascent driven by a plume of warm advection and frontogenesis within the 925-850 mb layer. Favorable phasing of these mechanisms is expected to persist for the next several as the synoptic system shifts east towards the Mid-Atlantic. Consequently, organized snow bands capable of heavy snowfall rates upwards of 1-2 inch/hour will remain possible across the upper OH River Valley into the central Appalachian region for the next several hours. Locations downstream that are currently not below freezing may see a slightly delayed onset of snowfall as low-level saturation promotes temperature reductions below freezing. Furthermore, orographic ascent within the Appalachians may augment lift over eastern WV/western VA and increase the potential for 2+ inch/hour snowfall rates during the 04-06 UTC period. ..Moore.. 02/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... LMK...

Zoomed in close up

@Deck Pic slightly drier 00z Euro QPF looks like? Noise I assume

00z UKIE FWIW

Pivotal 10:1 says Wes wins

We definitely love the GFS tonight

The new thread will be the obs thread

Great, now all I can think is Pirates of the Carribean... Hoist the colours!

I do like the bolded though Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 907 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508-VAZ025>031- 036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-508-526-527-WVZ051>053- 161100- District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Cumberland, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Wintergreen, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 907 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT... Snow will overspread the area from west to east Friday evening and exit Saturday morning. Generally one to three inches of snow is expected at this time. Localized totals upwards of four to six inches are possible wherever the bands of snow set up. Snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour are possible in these bands. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact travel Friday night into Saturday morning.

Is that 0.50 QPF in DC metro? I'm trying to differentiate the colors

They replaced it with another SPS

18z Euro is just about at its money frame...

Probably going WWA shortly

The erh map is the best ever