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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 755 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Garrett County in western Maryland... Northwestern Pendleton County in eastern West Virginia... Central Grant County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 830 AM EDT. * At 755 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Bayard to 6 miles southeast of Hendricks to near Elkins, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Streby, Seneca Rocks, Onego, Hopeville, Beechwood, Riverton, and Wilsonia.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 737 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Garrett County in western Maryland... Northwestern Grant County in eastern West Virginia... Southwestern Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 800 AM EDT. * At 737 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of Bayard, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Bayard, Loch Lynn Heights, Deer Park, Redhouse, Hutton, Gorman, Crellin, Beechwood, Wilson, Gormania, and Wilsonia. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3942 7948 3944 7920 3921 7932 3921 7936 3919 7949 TIME...MOT...LOC 1137Z 273DEG 51KT 3931 7949 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

20/5 tor probs, 50/10 wind

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up until noon for SW portion of the LWX CWA https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0350.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 350 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 710 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Virginia Eastern West Virginia * Effective this Thursday morning from 710 AM until NOON EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving organized linear system with a history of wind damage/some tornadoes overnight will continue east-southeastward this morning. Wind damage will remain possible if not likely, even if the linear system begins to weaken across the mountains. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of White Sulphur Springs WV to 35 miles northeast of Lynchburg VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

Mesoscale Discussion 1165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern/central Missouri...western Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 171803Z - 172000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development likely by the afternoon with potential for all hazards including damaging wind, large hail, and strong tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Morning convection has moved into central/eastern Illinois, with trailing outflow and a zone of differential heating extending across northern Missouri into south-central Illinois. This zone will be the focus of redevelopment of thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Strong daytime heating is ongoing across central/northern Missouri into far western Illinois in the cloud free zone south of the outflow. SPC Mesoanalysis indicates that MLCIN is eroding in this region, with temperatures climbing into the mid 80s F. This is further confirmed by visible satellite trends with the cumulus near the vicinity of the outflow also becoming increasingly agitated. Strong deep layer shear around 50-55 kts is analyzed across this region, with STP around 2-3 across northern Missouri into far western Illinois. This in combination with strong to moderate instability edging northward will likely support initial supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes (perhaps strong). A 40-50 kt low level jet axis extends from the southern/central Plains into Missouri/western Illinois. This is progged to shift north and eastward through the afternoon, which may shift the higher STP and more favorable tornado potential into portions of western/central Illinois. One or more watches will likely be needed to cover this potential this afternoon. ..Thornton/Hart.. 06/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 38788965 39578844 40158794 40518805 40738844 40788904 40599090 40469164 40309251 40129360 40049405 39629469 39309489 38959516 38169511 37979368 38499057 38619015 38788965 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 The center of the low pressure area is very near the Middle Texas coast, and offshore buoy observations indicate that maximum winds remain 25 kt. A line of deep convection has formed over the northwestern Gulf waters since the last advisory, but due to strong westerly shear, this activity is located more than 120 n mi to the east/southeast of the low-level center. As a result, the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB is Too Weak To Classify, meaning the system does not have the convective organization necessary to be designated as a tropical cyclone. The current motion is northeastward, or 045/5 kt. The system is embedded in strengthening low- to mid-level southwesterly flow, and with another trough approaching from the northwest, it is expected to accelerate northeastward today. The track guidance has shifted slightly westward on this cycle, and the center of the low is therefore likely to straddle the Texas coast for much of the day, before moving farther inland over eastern Texas or Louisiana tonight. The NHC official track has been nudged westward, close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. The prospects for this system to become a tropical cyclone may be decreasing. With the low-level center unlikely to fully emerge over the Gulf waters for an appreciable amount of time, and 25-30 kt of westerly shear expected to continue for the next 12 hours, it will be difficult for the system to gain the convective organization necessary to become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland tonight. Even if the system doesn't become a tropical cyclone, there could still be some strengthening of the wind field well east of the center during the day, and the NHC official forecast will continue to show a peak of 35 kt in 12 hours. After that, all of the global models now show the system opening up into a trough over Louisiana by tonight. The official forecast shows the system as a remnant low at 24 hours, but it's entirely possible it will have dissipated by then. The global models show the remnant low-level vorticity continuing eastward across the Southeast U.S. on Thursday and Friday, and the ECMWF, Canadian, and UKMET models indicate that a low pressure system could redevelop, especially once the system moves offshore over the western Atlantic. The exact nature of this low is unclear at this time, but we will monitor model trends for the possibility of tropical cyclone formation over the western Atlantic late this week or this weekend. Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards with this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding are likely through Thursday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, with possible flooding near the Upper Texas coast. Ongoing heavy rainfall could prolong the flood threat into the weekend. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Louisiana coast today from Sabine Pass to Morgan City where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 28.0N 96.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/1800Z 29.1N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 18/0600Z 31.1N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 The disturbance (AL90) that we have been tracking for several days across the southern Gulf of America into northeastern Mexico has moved into southern Texas. While the system is producing plentiful convection, it still lacks a well-defined center. However, most of the guidance suggest that it will move offshore tonight, and winds will increase to tropical-storm-force on Wednesday. Thus, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards with this system. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, based on surface and radar data. The system is moving slowly northeastward this morning. We expect the low to continue moving in that general direction with some increase in forward speed due to it encountering faster flow associated with a flat mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. Model guidance hugs the Texas coast but generally keeps it offshore for about a day on Wednesday before moving back onshore late Wednesday or early Thursday. The NHC forecast is between the latest dynamical model consensus and the corrected-model consensus HCCA. The upper-level environment is not particularly conducive for much intensification with a fair bit of shear and close proximity to land. However, there is enough upper-level support from a jet to the north to cause large-scale deepening, along with convective support from warm Gulf waters, so some intensification is anticipated through Wednesday. This forecast is similar to the model consensus IVCN. It should be noted that this system will likely never have a pure tropical appearance on satellite due to the upper trough and shear, with a highly asymmetric appearance with the rainfall and winds favoring the eastern semicircle. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is possible across the Texas coast eastward into central Mississippi through Thursday. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the weekend. Widespread small stream and minor river flooding is expected along the Texas coast into southwest Louisiana, with isolated areas of significant river flooding possible across the Texas Coast and Louisiana. 2. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast through Wednesday. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 27.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/0000Z 27.4N 97.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 17/1200Z 28.2N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 18/0000Z 29.6N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 31.6N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE.... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 98.0W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northwestern Gulf Coast from Sargent, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Sargent to Morgan City A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 98.0 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of days. The disturbance should move offshore the Texas coast tonight or early Wednesday, move roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast later on Wednesday and move back inland in extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm early on Wednesday. Weakening is anticipated on Thursday after the system moves back on land. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches through Thursday from the Mid to Upper Texas Coast through much of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and the far western portion of the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning early Wednesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents TORNADO: A tornado or two is possible through tonight from the Upper Texas coast across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

PTC 1 at 11am per NHC @WxWatcher007

Updated morning AFD from LWX KEY MESSAGE 2...A warm front lifting through the region brings showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight. High pressure will keep cool and dry conditions in the region this morning. High temperatures this afternoon rise into the upper 70s to low 80s for most with highest elevations in the Alleghenies staying in the 60s. A warm front lifting through the region combined with shortwave energy aloft, bring an increased risk of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms in southern MD. To accommodate this risk, SPC has much of the Chesapeake Bay and portions of Southern MD in a marginal risk for severe weather overnight. Any convection will be elevated in nature, but adequate shear and lift may lead to gusty winds and hail within stronger storms.

FWIW, MRGL added on 1300z OTLK from SPC for just east of i95 corridor and the Delmarva for tonight... 0/5/5 .Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic... Some strong/locally severe thunderstorms could occur tonight as convection develop near/north of a near-coastal/offshore surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Storms will tend to be elevated inland, but modest buoyancy and strong unidirectional shear through the cloud-bearing layer could yield some hail and/or gusty winds.

Afternoon AFD from LWX KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity returns for Thursday, along with chances for severe thunderstorms. A potent shortwave on the southern periphery of a much broader upper low over Canada will track through the Great Lakes on Wednesday night. This will force a highly anomalous area of low pressure to track across the eastern Great Lakes. In fact, this low could potentially break all-time minimum sea level pressure records for the month of June across portions of Wisconsin and Michigan as it tracks through later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Most solutions have this low tracking across southern Ontario and Quebec at around 985-990 hPa on Thursday. An unseasonably strong wind field aloft will accompany the highly anomalous low, as 850 hPa winds climb to around 30-50 knots and 500 hPa winds increase to in excess of 50 knots. Low-level south to southwesterly flow will also draw a hot and humid airmass north into the area. Temperatures are forecast to soar into the upper 80s and 90s across the bulk of the forecast area, while dewpoints increase into the mid to upper 60s. This overlap of a very hot and humid airmass with highly anomalous winds aloft raises concerns for severe thunderstorms locally on Thursday. It`s still to early to get into the finer scale details, but soundings show an environment that is very favorable for the production of damaging winds. SPC currently has the entire area outlooked with a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. We`ll continue to monitor this threat for severe thunderstorms over the coming days. Even outside of thunderstorms, winds should be breezy, potentially gusting in excess of 30 mph even in clear air. The combination of heat and background winds will be something that we don`t experience often here in the Mid-Atlantic.

This is what LWX had in their AFD this morning re Thursday Beginning Thursday, a strong surface low will push east past the Great Lakes with a stemming cold front that will push across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This cold front could result in multiple showers and thunderstorms throughout the region, with some becoming severe. There is already a 30%-45% severe probability noted in NCAR`s AI model, and a 15%-30% severe probability noted in CSU`s ML model. Timing and exact hazards are still the primary uncertainties being 5 days out, but early markers are definitely showing an early widespread severe risk with this system.

EZF storm went severe quick

Came out 15 minutes ago

TOG near Sykesville PA Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 445 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 PAC065-142100- /O.CON.KPBZ.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-260614T2100Z/ Jefferson PA- 445 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 ...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON PA COUNTY... At 445 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Reynoldsville, or 7 miles north of Punxsutawney, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Reynoldsville, Sykesville and Anita. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built building away from windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4106 7902 4113 7880 4099 7880 4099 7898 TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 259DEG 25KT 4103 7899 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...<1.00 IN

Per LWX, on the 12z KIAD sounding, PWAT was 1.05. On the 18z, it was 1.52

Confirmed TOG by spotters BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Cleveland OH 425 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Crawford County in northwestern Pennsylvania... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 425 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Cambridge Springs, or 9 miles north of Meadville, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * The tornado will be near... Meadville and Cambridge Springs around 430 PM EDT. Guys Mills around 435 PM EDT. Lincolnville, Canadohta Lake, and Riceville around 440 PM EDT. Titusville around 450 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Venango, Townville, Woodcock, Blooming Valley, Saegertown, and Hydetown.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 335 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 415 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Western and Central Maryland Central and Northern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 415 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon and evening within the warm, moist, and unstable environment in place across the region. Recent 18Z sounding at IAD sampled 42 kt of 0-6 km shear, which is more than sufficient for updraft organization. General expectation is for multiple rounds of occasionally severe storms, with damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard. Isolated instances of large hail could occur as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northeast of Martinsburg WV to 40 miles southeast of Lynchburg VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

There it is... 80%... watch needed soon https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1141.html Mesoscale Discussion 1141 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Areas affected...portions of Virginia...far southern Pennsylvania...eastern Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 141917Z - 142115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters will move eastward with damaging wind potential into the afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity across the Shenandoah Valley and Blue Ridge Mountains will increase in coverage and intensity as they shift eastward into the more favorable air mass across central/eastern Virginia this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development is likely downstream of the ongoing activity, with several areas of deepening cumulus noted in visible satellite. Mostly sunny skies through the morning has allowed for strong daytime heating and warming, with temperatures warming into the mid 90s. Higher theta-e air is advecting northward, with around 1000-2000 J/kg across southern Virginia. Steep low-level lapse rates are noted in SPC Mesoanalysis (7-8 C/km) and in the 18z RAOB from IAD. Though deep layer shear is marginal (around 20-30 kts), very warm and unstable conditions amid steep low to mid level lapse rates will support potential for water laden downdrafts and severe winds. A watch will likely be needed to cover this potential this afternoon. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 37138079 38198017 39397896 40127747 39997643 39767636 38557680 37327783 36827815 36537946 36688084 36838089 37138079 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

MCD should be coming soon

Re Sunday severe threat from SPC -- 30 wind was backed westward to i81 corridor... 2% tor also moved slightly NWward compared to the morning Day 2 OTLK Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area. ... Synopsis ... Broad troughing will exist across the eastern US on Sunday with several smaller-scale troughs moving through a longer-wave trough. At the start of the forecast period, one shortwave trough will be moving across the Northeast and a secondary low-amplitude trough will approach the eastern US later in the day. As this happens, low-mid-level southwesterly flow will increase to around 40 knots, providing effective-layer shear sufficient for thunderstorm organization. Surface dewpoints will increase into the low 60Fs perhaps as far north as central/southern New York ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass should result in MLCAPE perhaps as high as 1500-2500 J/kg across the southern Mid-Atlantic, to perhaps 1000 J/kg across portions of New York. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the surface front during the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern with these storms, although an isolated tornado will also be possible. Strong consideration was given to increasing wind probabilities to 45% (Level 3/Enhanced) across the central/northern Mid-Atlantic region, but opted to defer any upgrade to later outlooks after collaboration with local offices. Additional bands/clusters of storms are likely to develop during the afternoon across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley into PA/NY. While instability will be lower across this area, deep-layer flow will be stronger. Linear bands and clusters will pose a risk for isolated severe/damaging wind gusts through the evening.

Morning AFD from LWX for Sunday DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions today, severe thunderstorms return Sunday. Quiescent wx returns today with mostly sunny skies and lower humidity. Temps will still be 5-8 degrees above average for highs (upper 80s to around 90), but it will feel cooler and less humid as dewpoints drop into upper 50s and low 60s. Sun features the next chance for severe wx. SPC has maintained a Level 2 out of 5 (Slight Risk) for the area, however they have increased the wind probs to 30%. Could see upgrade to Level 3 out of 5 (Enhanced Risk) depending on model trends over the next 24 hours. Stay tuned for the latest... In terms of the meteorology, a sw will rotate around the base of an UL trof Sun. Ahead of the wave, southerly flow will usher in anomalous moisture with PWs nearing 2" and dewpoints near 70F. The sw will bring height falls aloft near peak heating resulting in notable instability. The above will overlap with increasing wind shear. The combination of increasing instability, shear, and large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the shortwave and an approaching cold front will lead to the development of widespread thunderstorms during the afternoon, some of which could be severe. Model soundings indicate steep low level lapse rates (especially for the Mid-Atlantic) which will result in higher DCAPE values and therefore stronger wind gusts. There`s still a fair amount of spread in guidance with respect to the timing and exact placement of the storms, but as of now the threat looks to be greatest to the east of the Blue Ridge. Some guidance has discrete supercells ahead of the front, followed by linear segments which make sense given unidirectional shear. The main threats with storms will damaging winds, large hail, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. WPC has a Level 1 out of 5 (Marginal ERO) for the metros, but progressive nature and prevailing drought look to limit the overall flood threat. The system`s cold front will move through Sunday night, advecting cooler and drier air into the region, which will bring the threat for severe thunderstorms to an end.

Oh okay then SPC... @high risk @Kmlwx @wxmeddler @Eskimo Joe Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-6/Wed-Thu -- Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough is forecast to deepen over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intensifying 500 mb jet streak will develop across the central Plains and increase to 80-100 kt as it moves into the Mid-MS Valley Wednesday night, and spreads eastward across the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern/central Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. As this occurs, increasing southerly low-level flow will quickly transport rich Gulf moisture northward into the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley by Wednesday afternoon as the surface low moves across IA and a trailing cold front moves eastward in tandem with the low across portions of the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley. Strong to extreme instability is forecast across the strongly sheared warm sector. An all-hazards severe thunderstorm event appears likely. An intense southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening. This could support upscale growth into an MCS moving across portions of the Midwest Wednesday night, posing a risk for swaths of damaging winds. This system will spread east on Thursday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A continued risk for all severe hazards, and possible MCS with damaging winds, will persist as the mid/upper jet streak is forecast to remain quite strong as it overspreads a seasonally moist airmass. While some timing differences of aforementioned features is evident in various NWP guidance, overall medium range consensus and mean calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests a multi-day severe episode is likely as this system overspreads portions of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, though the 15 percent risk areas may shift in the coming days as details become better resolved, and higher probabilities are possible in subsequent outlooks. The southern extent of severe potential is more uncertain across parts of the Plains toward the TN Valley as these areas will remain further removed from stronger flow aloft. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2026