yoda

40/20 on both hail and wind probs... 20 on 2 or more tornadoes probs

Watch up until midnight

Watch up until midnight URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 228 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Southern Pennsylvania Northern and Eastern Virginia Eastern Panhandle West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday night from 600 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered linear clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop and move northward into the Watch area this evening. A few of the stronger cellular storms will pose a risk for large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter). A transient supercell or two is possible in addition to a couple of line segments. Strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with these storms, but a brief tornado is possible mainly early this evening with this activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Hagerstown MD to 25 miles southwest of Patuxent River MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

Watch potentially coming soon Mesoscale Discussion 0701 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0429 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 052129Z - 052330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving north out of southeast Virginia will migrate into a buoyant air mass in place across the DelMarVa region. Re-intensification is expected and may result in an uptick in the severe hail/wind threat. Watch issuance is being considered to address this potential. DISCUSSION...A mix of semi-discrete thunderstorms and weakly organized linear segments continues to migrate north out of southeast VA. While a few stronger cores persist, much of the convection currently appears weak/disorganized based on GOES IR imagery and MRMS vertical ice/echo top data. However, these storms are moving into an environment characterized by better buoyancy (MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg) that is in place across the DelMarVa region. Consequently, some uptick in intensity is anticipated within the next 1-2 hours. Deep-layer wind shear sampled by regional VWPs is fairly modest - around 20-25 knots of 0-6 km BWD. However, this should be sufficient for a few organized cells and linear segments capable of producing damaging winds and 1.0 to 1.5 inch hail. ..Moore/Smith.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 37687760 38617858 39057882 39307881 39677865 39997827 40077798 40057760 39837722 39257636 38867603 38407592 38117592 37777606 37557624 37357656 37357685 37467726 37687760 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

Watch potentially coming soon

Tucker released https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/45011729/ravens-make-tough-decision-release-kicker-justin-tucker

Hmmm Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 254 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slowly progress eastward across the region through Tuesday, then pull offshore Tuesday night. High pressure will follow briefly for Wednesday. A potent cold front is expected to move southeast from the eastern Great Lakes to and across the Mid-Atlantic late in the week. High pressure will likely follow through the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Isolated severe t-storms will be possible over the next couple of hours with current scattered activity across the area. However, it appears the main severe wx potential over the next 12 hours will be tied to the line of convection forming near Raleigh NC. Shortwave-trough lifting from southwest VA into western VA and low-level convergence are expected to encourage more widespread convection early this evening. Latest HREF fields suggest a broken to solid line of thunderstorms forming from near Frederick MD south to Fredericksburg. Given cooling aloft and some rotation already seen on radar, a tornado and hail threat exist, especially given that shear profiles are expected to strengthen. The main window for severe wx potential looks to be between 21Z-02Z. Convection is expected to weaken or lift north into Pennsylvania after 02Z.

STW up for most of AKQ CWA

Sorry bud

TOR tag on the Charles Town/Antietam cell

@EastCoast NPZ had some good rains earlier

Been mostly sunny and humid down here for the past few hours

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 223 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 VAZ025>027-029-280230- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0003.250428T0600Z-250428T1200Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page- 223 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures in the mid 30s will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Page, Shenandoah, Augusta, and Rockingham Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Pretty decent storm... a bit of thunder and lightning but more gusty winds and torrential downpours

Token 5% MCD from SPC just now

Oh... okay then

I believe @pazzo83 went there? Congratulations btw

Numerous roads closed in the Thurmont to Emmitsburg area in MD due to dozens of trees down

71mph gust at Carroll County Regional Airport AWOS

Looks it threw out an OFB? Radarscope has it to the SW all the way back towards N VA

I'm guessing the Berryville WV spotter report is west of you?

Lots of damage reports coming out on Radarscope of numerous trees down and wind gusts of 60 to 80mph Trained spotter reports numerous trees downed in Hagerstown (at least a dozen)

Camp David AWOS 81 mph gust

Rear inflow jet ftw tonight