yoda
-
Posts
63,536 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by yoda
-
Storm east of CHO pretty decent
-
Looks like a storm going up in PW that has its eyes on DC metro over next 60-90 minutes
-
Also dumping hail
-
Westminister is listed as 104 at 4pm Also at 4pm: BWI 102, DCA 101, SBY 101, EZF 100, Warrenton 101... Baltimore Inner Harbor 103, College Park 102, Ft. Belvior 101, Manassas 100... Andrew's AFB 103
-
Looks like it yes. I see a 102... but will have to wait to see if official
-
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 323 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Madison County in northwestern Virginia... * Until 430 PM EDT. * At 323 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Madison, and is nearly stationary. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Brightwood, Aroda, Shelby, Oakpark, Twymans Mill, Leon, Pratts, Rochelle, and Locust Dale. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3830 7834 3845 7814 3838 7811 3836 7812 3834 7810 3834 7809 3833 7809 3824 7822 TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 212DEG 2KT 3830 7825 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
-
70/30 wind... 20/10 hail in the probs URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 457 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Virginia Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms will develop and spread across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening, in and hot and humid air mass. Damaging wind gusts are likely with the strongest storm clusters. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Martinsburg WV to 55 miles south southeast of Roanoke VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
-
Watch up until 10pm for entire LWX CWA
-
2pm DCA 100 BWI 101 IAD 97 RIC 99 CHO 101 SBY 100
-
1pm temps DCA 100 BWI 101 IAD 96 RIC 97 CHO 99 SBY 99
-
-
Updated 1730z SPC OTLK for Day 2 (tomorrow, Sunday) has added 5 hail and 30 wind Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms also are possible across Montana and western North Dakota, and portions of the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic... A weak surface low is forecast to move west to east along a sagging cold front/baroclinic zone draped across PA into northern NJ/southeast NY on Sunday/Sunday evening. Meanwhile, lee troughing will develop across VA. A hot and very moist airmass will reside near and south of these boundaries, which will serve as a focus for severe storm development during the afternoon and into evening. Southwesterly flow aloft will weaken through the day as an upper shortwave impulse lifts northeast of the region, but around 20-30 kt mid/upper-level flow will persist. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected and thunderstorm clusters are expected by early to mid-afternoon. Sufficient clustering could occur along the southward-sagging cold front and one or more forward propagating clusters will be possible from northern VA into southeast PA until storms move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast during the evening. Sufficient consistency among deterministic/CAMs and AI/ML guidance exists regarding storm coverage to warrant an upgrade to 30 percent wind probabilities for portions of the region.
-
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 37548059 38018032 39057934 39427883 39597832 39647744 39547686 39357649 38907637 38057671 37237763 36667909 36688013 37028055 37548059 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1491.html
-
I would assume we would
-
3 days in a row... impressive
-
Geez... from the 1125am LWX updated discussion Unlike previous days which were free of convection, a collapsing ridge will lift the subsidence that has persisted the last few days. This subsidence is evident in two levels in the 12Z KIAD RAOB - 900-800 mb, and 575-525 mb (the latter of which is more stout than forecast most forecast soundings have). Although mid/upper heights remain anomalously high, forcing from an approaching shortwave will aid in more widespread showers and thunderstorms. One unique aspect to the thermodynamic environment is an elevated mixed layer (EML) which has shown up in the last 5 IAD sounding profiles (9.3 C/km this morning 780-570 mb). This is unusually steep for this area. This is contributing to some impressively large amounts of instability, generally 2,000 to 4,000 J/kg MUCAPE as of 12Z objective mesoanalysis. Within the deeply mixed boundary layer, substantial downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) is evident with values around 1,300 to 1,700 J/kg. Although vertical shear is only around 20 to 25 knots, any storms able to tap into the robust instability will be capable of damaging winds. Some of this could be locally considerable with gusts up to 70 mph. With all of the above in mind, and ample high-resolution model support, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded areas east of the Blue Ridge to an Enhanced Risk today. This upgrade would support a more widespread footprint of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Looking a bit more closely at today`s setup, convective initiation likely will be more mesoscale in nature. This would include the climatological lee-side trough, bay and river breezes, as well as any remnant outflows from earlier convection. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible given so much instability in the troposphere. The primary signal east of the Blue Ridge is in the 3-9 PM timeframe, slightly earlier to the west. Damaging winds are the main threat, with even a small chance for large hail given steep lapse rates and large CAPE (though high freezing levels and modest shear will offset this risk). Although the convective signal is strongest during the afternoon to early evening hours, residual storms could easily impact those with outdoor plans for fireworks this evening. Continue to check back at weather.gov/lwx or follow the National Weather Service - Baltimore/Washington social media accounts for the latest.
- 995 replies
-
- 1
-
-
- severe
- thunderstorms
- (and 7 more)
-
Yes CIG1 for wind introduced along i95 corridor from DC metro into PHL
-
5% hail introduced on 1630z OTLK from Roanoke VA to DC metro
-
https://www.capitalweather.com/100-degree-days-in-washington-d-c/ 1930 had 11 2012 had 8
-
I could see a CIG1 appear in the 1300z SPC OTLK or the 1630z one
-
Probably good thing we dont have shear near 40 kts .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A highly impactful Independence Day lies ahead today with extreme heat and an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms. Anomalous heat and humidity remain a fixture across the area. Based on the latest 07Z/3 AM observational data, temperatures generally range from the mid 70s to mid 80s. This is accompanied by dew points in the 70s which is yielding overnight heat indices between 85 to 95 degrees. Skies remain mostly clear although there is still residual convective debris drifting southward from central Pennsylvania. Before convection enters the picture, it will be another day of record warmth across the Mid-Atlantic region. Using 850-mb temperatures as a proxy, forecast readings should be around 22-23C which dry adiabatic mixing favors another 100 degree day. Adding continued tropical moisture in place will support heat indices pushing into the 105 to 110 degree range. Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect from 10 AM until 9 PM for areas east of the Blue Ridge. Given an uptick in forecast heat indices, have upgraded to warnings over north-central Maryland down across the eastern West Virginia Panhandle into portions of the Shenandoah Valley. Otherwise, outside of mountain locations, Heat Advisories will be in effect until 8 PM this evening. Unlike previous days which were free of convection, a collapsing ridge will lift the subsidence that has persisted the last few days. Although mid/upper heights remain anomalous in nature, forcing from an approaching shortwave will aid in more widespread showers and thunderstorms. One unique aspect to the thermodynamic environment is an elevated mixed layer (EML) which has shown up in the last 4 IAD sounding profiles. Within this layer around 750-600 mb, lapse rates continue to run between 8-9 C/km which is unusually steep for this area. This is contributing to some impressively large amounts of instability, generally in the 3,000 to 4,000 J/kg. Within the deeply mixed boundary layer, substantial downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) is evident with values around 1,300 to 1,700 J/kg. Although vertical shear is only around 20 to 25 knots, any storms able to tap into the robust instability will be capable of damaging winds. Some of this could be locally destructive with gusts up to 60 to 75 mph. With all of the above in mind, and ample high-resolution model support, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded areas east of the Blue Ridge to an Enhanced Risk today. This upgrade would support a more widespread footprint of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Looking a bit more closely at today`s setup, convective initiation likely will be more mesoscale in nature. This would include the climatological lee-side trough, bay and river breezes, as well as any remnant outflows from earlier convection. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible given so much instability in the troposphere. The primary signal east of the Blue Ridge is in the 3-9 PM timeframe, slightly earlier to the west. Damaging to locally destructive winds are the main threat, with any chance for large hail being minimal given the summertime freezing levels. Although the convective signal is strongest during the afternoon to early evening hours, residual storms could easily impact those with outdoor plans for fireworks this evening. Continue to check back at weather.gov/lwx or follow the National Weather Service - Baltimore/Washington social media accounts for the latest.
-
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, with potential for widespread damaging wind. Additional thunderstorms are expected across the Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail is also possible across the Great Plains. ...Synopsis... Height rises will continue across the western US, with more zonal flow across the central US and upper-level troughing across the Northeast and Quebec/Ontario. A modest belt of westerly flow around 30-40 kts will move through the trough in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A compact shortwave trough with enhanced westerly flow will move through the flow across the Central Plains. ...Eastern Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... Activity will likely be ongoing across some portion of northern PA into northern NJ this morning. This will likely contribute to lingering cloud cover and more muted daytime heating/recovery with northern extent. South of the morning precipitation, strong daytime heating and warming is expected, with temperatures climbing into the 90s to 100s F. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is already in place across the region from WV into VA/MD/NJ. With daytime heating, low-level lapse rates are expected to increase with moderate to strong instability by the afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles will be generally weak, with better shear to the north. Nonetheless, several thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop across the Blue Ridge Mountains/Shenandoah Valley moving north and eastward though the afternoon. These will have the potential to produce widespread damaging wind, especially if clusters can grow upscale and develop strong cold pools. Additional clusters are likely in the wake of morning convection further north. Instability will be less, but sufficient deep layer shear may support one or more clusters capable of damaging wind.
-
88/74/96 at 3am at DCA... toasty
-
Bit of a surprise... ENH and 45 wind up on early morning Day 1
-
Heat index is 104 lol... I mean its almost midnight
