yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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Tosses out 3 straight days of all time record highs
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Um, can we not have what the 00z Euro tossed out in the super extended range (days 10-15)? Definitely do not want. Yes it will change at 12z... but no, do not want
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I'm more watching the N IL complex
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Some bright sun and blue skies here and off to the west. I think as long as we can get a good 4 to 6 hours of good heating it will be up to the boundaries and chance as you have stated
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 555 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Northern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread southeastward across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. Hot and humid conditions will combine with favorable winds aloft for a risk of damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west southwest of Martinsburg WV to 40 miles east northeast of Baltimore MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
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Watch up till 9pm for entire LWX CWA except St. Mary's
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Or now... watch coming soon https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1896.png Mesoscale Discussion 1896 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Areas affected...the Maryland and West Virginia Panhandles into the Delmarva Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 101659Z - 101900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging winds is expected to increase this afternoon, likely requiring a severe thunderstorm watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s has contributed to a moderately unstable air mass as of early afternoon with steepening low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Upstream convection over southwest PA is gradually developing a tighter leading-edge reflectivity gradient and more robust trailing stratiform region, suggestive of an organizing cold pool. Current thinking is that the evolving convective system will further intensify as it continues east-southeast and encounters an increasingly unstable environment across the discussion area. The current KPBZ VWP is sampling strengthening west-northwest flow above 2 km AGL, which will likely aid in further cold pool organization. These factors will lead to an increasing threat for damaging wind gusts across the area this afternoon, likely requiring the issuance of a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Mead/Hart.. 08/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 39117919 39457922 39687831 39607644 39657577 39167542 38627575 38367675 38547793 38717879 38877919 39117919 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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I'm guessing a MCD for us by 230pm
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And 2% tor
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So are the storms currently in Ohio the ones we should be watching for this afternoon?
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Looks like a lot of svr wind reports and a waterspout report in NE MD
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I think we will have to wait a few hours... looking back in WV
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Looks pretty decent for C MD
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Could you explain more what you mean by the bolded?
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Its kinda funny to see you over an inch of rain and NPZ at not a drop apparently
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I hope so. I dont mind the humidity now.... but i hate like mid 90s and blazing sun and mid 70s DP
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Not liking seeing mid 90s and humidity return next week
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SPC mentions the Mid-Atlantic in its Day 4-8 disco for Thursday and the weekend. Doesn't sound like anything huge... but the threat is there Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thursday... Broad troughing is forecast from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes with a series of disturbances moving through that airflow pattern. Elsewhere, an elongated vorticity ribbon will progress from the central and southern Appalachians into the Northeast. At the surface, a front initially from the southern Great Lakes into the southern Plains is forecast to weaken. Over the eastern CONUS, southerly winds will maintain a broad corridor of 70+ F dewpoints along and east of the Appalachians, which will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Aided by the approach of the disturbance aloft, thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon with some severe weather possible. Generally weak vertical shear and the absence of a coherent front in the region lead to uncertainty in where the greatest threat may materialize. An isolated severe threat may also develop along the front from the Ozark Plateau into the southern High Plains, and in AZ during the afternoon and evening. ...Day 5/Friday... An intense mid/upper-level low is expected to evolve over central Canada with upper highs situated over the Great Basin and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Between those features, corridors of stronger mid-level flow are forecast from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, and to a lesser extent over the Northeast. Some severe weather threat may again materialize from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England in the vicinity of a surface trough. However, the strongest vertical shear is forecast to be displaced to the north of the stronger instability, leading to uncertainty in the extent of the severe weather threat. Isolated severe storms also appear possible along a front moving into the upper MS Valley. ...Days 6-8/Saturday through Monday... The various 00Z ensemble means indicate an upper low initially over Hudson Bay shifting east into northern QC with persistent ridging over the southern CONUS. Between those features, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow is forecast across the northern tier of states with some signal for continued troughing through Sunday over the Great Lakes into the OH Valley. At the surface, there is ensemble member clustering in surface low positions over the northern Plains along a front extending into the upper Great Lakes. There is a model signal for the front to continue into the Great Lakes and Midwest, where some severe weather threat appears possible. A separate severe weather risk may also persist from the Mid-Atlantic into New England. ..Mead.. 08/03/2026
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Pouring rain here right now
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Looks like its already going to be wrong looking down south
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Isn't it retiring soon for the RRFS?
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From SPC day 4 to 8 outlook this morning Days 5 and 6/ Thursday and Friday... A slight eastward shift of the mean trough position is forecast on Thursday with some model signal for an embedded short-wave trough to move through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is some suggestion that a weak front or wind shift will move into the northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon with the trailing extension of that boundary stretching through the mid MS Valley into the southern High Plains. Ahead of that boundary, widespread 70+ F dewpoints are expected from New England into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas, leading to moderate to potentially strong instability. The greatest potential for a few severe storms appears to be across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon where the moderate instability will coincide with a belt of 30-40 kt mid-level flow. Some severe weather threat may also develop in the Ozark Plateau and AZ Thursday afternoon and evening. On Friday, the above-mentioned Great Lakes short-wave trough is expected to shear northeast across southern ON with 30-40 kt of mid-level flow prevailing over the Northeast. The surface pattern is somewhat disorganized with some semblance of a trough from southern New England through the Mid-Atlantic coastal region. Moderate to strong instability may again develop ahead of that feature, supporting the potential for some severe weather threat during the afternoon and early evening hours. However, the strongest vertical shear is forecast to remain to the north of the stronger instability, leading to uncertainty in the magnitude of the severe threat. ...Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday... The various 00Z ensemble mean solutions indicate a slight eastward shift of an upper low near Hudson Bay with low-amplitude troughing and strengthening mid-level flow moving into the Northeast. Southerly low-level winds within the western periphery of a surface high positioned off the Atlantic Coast will maintain a moist and unstable air mass beneath the strengthening winds aloft. As such, some severe weather threat is expected to persist from the Mid-Atlantic into New England this period. Elsewhere, there is some model signal for a surface front to move into the Midwest, where some severe weather potential may exist.
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