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Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026 A recent ASCAT pass showed that the system NHC has been monitoring southwest of the Azores (AL99) has a well-defined circulation and peak wind vectors were around 26 kt. The stucture of the cyclone still has the bulk of the convection on the northern side, and that area of convection has persisted for more than 12 hours. However, the cyclone appears to lie along the northern edge of a zone of strong westerly shear. In addition the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, which has persisted since the last forecast cycle. Based on the given data, this system has been started as Tropical Depression Six with an initial intensity of 30 kt. Tropical Depression Six is currently meandering, however it should start to increase in speed and move generally to the northeast for the next 36 h as a trough to the north weakens the ridge to the northeast. Around 48 h, the ridge is expected to build back, which will force the cyclone to move towards the southwest. The system is expected to remain on this heading for the rest of the forecast period. The current NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA and GDMI. The depression is expected to move into a slightly more favorable environment, between two areas of intense shear. This could allow for some slight intensification to occur for the next day or so. After 36 h, the system is expected to move into an area of higher shear as the previously mentioned trough starts to negatively impact the cyclone, thus resulting in gradual weakening. The system is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and then dissipate around 120 h. However, the guidance from the GFS and ECMWF show significant differences in when dissipation occurs. The GFS has the cyclone dissipating much sooner around 72 h, while the ECMWF has dissipation occuring around 120 h. The current NHC intensity forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is slightly under HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 32.6N 33.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 33.0N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 33.6N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 33.8N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 33.4N 32.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 32.4N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 31.0N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 28.9N 37.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Berg

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 33.6W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 33.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). This system is expected to generally move to the northeast for the next 24 to 36 hours, before turning toward the southwest in a couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, however after that gradual weakening is expected to occur. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Katz/Berg

It will be TD 6 at 11

Nothing at 5pm

I'm kind of fine with punting December. We haven't really had much cold and snow the past few years anyway in that month. Granted, I don't want 70s... but it seems as many knowledgeable posters have stated across the numerous threads... December is gone

I vaguely remember seeing that somewhere too

It has @EastCoast NPZ in the heavy rain totals... so we have to toss it

I understand that... what i meant is do I keep my spotter ID forever and not have to take another class or does NWS recycle them

Anybody know if you need a refresher? Like I still have my spotter ID and such... but last class I took was about 8 years ago I think?

We should have won the game. Very disappointed

Decent rainbow outside right now after a quick burst of moderate rain

I see the Commanders offense is garbage so far

For a few days before the 60s DP return

Looks like rain in DC metro by 8 to 9pm looking south on radar

I dunno... I remember concerns about it. I think it was ERC and something else that weakened it

Before it weakened... wasn't Isabel a big concern for that kind of track?

@EastCoast NPZ everything okay? The desert got hit again

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up until 9pm URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 653 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Eastern Kentucky Western Maryland Southeast Ohio Virginia West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Relatively widespread clusters of storms will continue to become increasingly common this afternoon, with the potential for storms to organize over time as they progress generally southeastward. Wind damage will be the most common hazard.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2232.html Mesoscale Discussion 2232 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026 Areas affected...southeast Ohio...much of West Virginia...western Maryland and northern and western Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 041731Z - 041930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms may produce areas of damaging gusts and marginally severe hail through the afternoon from southeast Ohio into Virginia. DISCUSSION...Cells have intensified from central into southeast OH, south of the synoptic wind shift and within the instability axis. Precipitable water is high, with moderate instability developing. Midlevel northwesterlies of 30-40 kt are also supporting cellular and mixed storm modes including small bows. Given the destabilizing air mass downstream of the existing storms, gradual upscale growth may occur as outflow production/storm coverage increases. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 38978248 39418172 39698096 39767982 39577793 39077719 38627744 37967822 37507916 37218080 37368163 37828223 38138248 38978248 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Sounds like severe thunderstorm watch coming soon for areas west of i95 corridor per MCD

Radarscope had rotation in the Garrett County cell which just got svr warned

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1052 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No wholesale changes to the forecast this morning. Monitoring convection upstream over Ohio (again) as that is on pace to affect the region with a damaging/severe wind threat later this afternoon into this evening.

Though morning AFD from LWX suggests otherwise DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot temperatures, high humidity, and severe thunderstorm chances again today into Saturday. Additional showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe, are anticipated again this afternoon/evening. Timing is a bit uncertain given the subtle waves aloft, but increasing low-level convergence paired with another upper impulse may very well result in another round or two of storms with a damaging wind risk. The latest guidance has nudged the threat a bit further north due to slower progression of the cold front, encompassing areas as far north as I- 70 or the Mason-Dixon line . While storms can develop over the region and congeal before moving southeast, areas in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia will need to be monitored to see if anything grows upscale in those areas in linear segments and dives southeast. Highs today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s with dew points in the lower to middle 70s resulting in heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s. This will be just shy of heat headline criteria (except in Charlottesville and surrounding Albemarle/Nelson Counties). The potential for early day clouds to offset heating precludes enough confidence to issue any further heat headlines at this time, though it will be unusually hot and humid for early September regardless.

So today's final severe weather threat should be more SW of DC metro?