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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Radarscope from LWX is picking up 65dbz from the tornadic WV cell... dang
  2. yoda
    I know this MCD is more to our east... but note the disco... bolded mine Mesoscale Discussion 1697 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Areas affected...eastern Virginia into the DelMarVa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509... Valid 212043Z - 212215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509 continues. SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will continue through the afternoon and into the evening. DISCUSSION...Storms across Virginia and into the DelMarVa have mostly lacked structure thus far with only occasional stronger multi-cell storms. As height falls overspread the area this evening, expect more robust convection with a greater damaging wind threat and an eventual line of storms along or ahead of the cold front, advances east. In addition, strengthening mid-level and low-level flow will assist in storm organization, further supporting the threat. ..Bentley.. 07/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 36648039 37457909 38317774 38907701 39477640 39497553 39107487 38507479 37967507 37297548 36677596 36648039 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
  3. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 444 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... Northwestern Calvert County in southern Maryland... East central Prince Georges County in central Maryland... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 444 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Upper Marlboro, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Bowie, Severn, Annapolis, Crofton, Mayo, Shady Side, Deale, Naval Academy, Upper Marlboro, Severn River, South River, Sillery Bay, Rhode River, Magothy River, Dobbins Island, Glen Burnie, Severna Park, Odenton, Pasadena, and Arnold. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3900 7638 3896 7645 3880 7649 3879 7649 3878 7651 3869 7670 3880 7682 3917 7665 3907 7642 3906 7642 3901 7637 TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 219DEG 39KT 3885 7671 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
  4. yoda
    Garrett County severe warned with tornado possible tag
  5. yoda
    Storm entering Garrett County in about 30 minutes just got TWd... big rotation SW of Morgantown
  6. yoda
    I'm assuming we are also watching the storms in SE OH entering WV?
  7. yoda
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 509 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland Far Northwest North Carolina Virginia The Eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the region today and tonight, beginning with the ongoing storms across central Virginia. Environmental conditions support robust updrafts, with all severe hazards possible, including damaging gusts and isolated hail. A low-probability tornado risk exists with any afternoon development as well. Another round of storms is possible along a cold front later tonight, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. A low-probability, line-embedded tornado risk exists with these more linear storms as well.
  8. yoda
    First TW up in RLX CWA... STW up down near CHO
  9. yoda
    \ Mesoscale Discussion 1688 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Areas affected...northeast Kentucky...northern West Virginia...and southern Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 211615Z - 211815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase this afternoon across southern Ohio and northern Kentucky into West Virginia. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms in southeast Ohio will likely continue east-southeast into a more unstable airmass along a differential heating zone developing across northern West Virginia. Damaging winds will likely be the primary threat with this cluster. Additional storms are expected to strengthen farther southwest through the afternoon with sufficient shear for some supercell structures. Damaging winds will likely be the main threat with this activity with some large hail potential. In addition, a tornado or two is also possible, especially as the low-level jet strengthens this afternoon/evening. A watch will likely be needed within the next 1 to 2 hours to address the threat from the ongoing activity and any additional storms which develop. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 07/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
  10. yoda
    Watchi coming soon for KY/OH/WV per MCD just issued... LWX mentioned in WFO list
  11. yoda
    85/75 S 15 HX 93 at DCA at noon
  12. yoda
    Getting sunny here through the high clouds
  13. yoda
    12z NAM throwing out some nasty hodographs and STP numbers between 21z and 00z KFDK at 00z DCA at 00z
  14. yoda
    Looks like 12z HRRR has some discrete convection from 18z to 20z across the region before QLCS (?) comes through around 22z-23z
  15. yoda
    1300z SPC OTLK has moved the ENH southern line south to RIC... was near EZF on 06z outlook
  16. yoda
    Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States today into tonight. Swaths of damaging wind gusts are expected to be the most common impact, but some tornadoes are possible as well. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... A broad area of 40-50-kt mid-level west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as a large-scale trough amplifies and shifts across the northeastern CONUS. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of an eastward-moving cold front across the Ohio Valley and along a pre-frontal trough over the Mid-Atlantic. In the base of the trough, a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moving from the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic may also serve as a focus for convective development. Severe thunderstorm potential could increase relatively early today across parts of Ohio into Pennsylvania and western New York. Diurnal heating within cloud breaks, combined with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints, will support at least moderate surface-based instability across the broad pre-frontal warm sector. The most favorable overlap of this instability and 40-50 kt of effective shear is expected from the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, where a mix of organized clusters and supercells should evolve and spread eastward through the day. Swaths of damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe hazard, though severe hail will also be possible with any initial/sustained supercells. Additionally, a gradually strengthening and expanding 30-kt low-level jet will contribute to clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, and a few tornadoes may occur. This supercell related-tornado potential may focus along the warm front into parts of the Northeast, and with semi-discrete development later today focusing along the lee trough/edge of higher terrain, although low-level shear/SRH will be moderate in most of the open warm sector as well.
  17. yoda
    I don't think we see pure blue skies and sun today... I think as the sat image you posted shows we will have sun and clouds. Should be enough as long as its like 3 to 5 hours of it
  18. yoda
    I work overnight (Sunday to Wednesday) so I have time to post lol Disco says we should get some breaks soon as the WF goes by... we shall see as you said
  19. yoda
    Morning discussion from LWX on the threat today DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today, with some thunderstorm risk lingering into Wednesday. Higher dew points have been advecting into the area with moisture and instability increasing in S/SW flow. So far shower activity has been isolated and short lived. However, a subtle shortwave is approaching, and some of the convection currently across WV and SW VA could persist or redevelop across the area through the early morning hours. Areas of stratus are also forming. Both of these features could inhibit surface heating this morning, although it does appear we should have some partial sun by midday as the warm front continues to lift to the north. This should be enough to allow temperatures to rise into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Combined with dew points in the 70s, at least moderate surface based instability should develop, highest east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. A seasonably strong trough will be approaching from the west, providing forcing and anywhere between 30 and 50 kt of flow in the cloud bearing layer. This will provide a favorable environment for severe thunderstorms, with supercells and clusters both possible. One initiation region will likely be along the prefrontal/lee trough near or just east of the Blue Ridge. These storms will likely affect the I-95 corridor between mid afternoon and early evening. While these storms will certainly carry severe potential, it is interesting to note on average the 850-700 mb wind fields will be greater to our south and west until late afternoon or early evening. Other details remain unresolved, especially the effects of upstream convection that moved through the upper Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley. This could have some impact on how thunderstorms develop across the Ohio Valley this afternoon and what subsequently moves into western areas. If stronger/more widespread convection does not move in from the Ohio Valley, there is some potential there is a relative minimum in coverage between the Blue Ridge and Alleghenies. The coverage of afternoon storms and upstream effects will determine what happens this evening as the strongest forcing overspread the area along with increasing low level wind fields. A second round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible for some areas, though increasing low level stability may limit the severe weather threat. It appears the evening/overnight coverage could gradually shift to southern parts of the forecast area, or even mostly to our south, potentially focusing on outflow from earlier activity. Damaging winds will be the primary severe hazard, although large hail and a tornado or two are possible if supercells develop. Some localized swaths of more considerable wind damage are possible. Relatively speaking, the tornado threat is higher to the north (and north of the CWA) closer to the warm front and possibly closer to the Chesapeake Bay where low level winds could be backed. With that said, forecast hodographs vary quite a bit between models and also throughout time, so any relatively higher threat will depend on the mesoscale details. With precipitable water values increasing (over 2 inches east of the Blue Ridge), any storm mergers and training along mesoscale boundaries could result in localized flash flooding. Overall storm motions will be progressive though, so this threat appears too localized for a Flood Watch at the moment and will continue to be evaluated. Additional areas to monitor will be the Ohio Valley low level jet potentially leading to training (looks to be mostly west of the area), and the evening low level jet leading to backbuilding along any residual outflow/convergence feature (best QPF signal is currently mostly south of the forecast area).
  20. yoda
    Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. ...Synopsis... High amplitude ridging will build across the western US with continued progressive troughing across the east on Tuesday. Multiple short-wave impulses will rotate through the eastern US trough, with a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow traversing the Midwest into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will shift south and east through the period, with a surface low across southern Ontario/Quebec. A pre-frontal surface trough will also be in place across western/central NY into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected through the period. ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase along the pre-frontal trough from western/central New York into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic late Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Though there may be potential for early morning cloud cover, it does appear that sufficient heating/moistening will occur for at least moderate instability to develop across the region through the afternoon. Mid-level flow will increase through the day along with forcing for ascent. It appears widely scattered thunderstorm activity with several clusters/embedded supercells will be ongoing by the afternoon. Highest confidence in transient embedded supercell modes would be closer to the surface low and near the front across western NY into eastern PA. Here, there may be potential for both damaging wind, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Guidance suggests the best signal for damaging wind will be across the Mid-Atlantic, where several damaging clusters could occur. As such, the Enhanced was expanded eastward into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley... Evolution of overnight convection will play a large role in development/maintenance of thunderstorm activity across the Ohio Valley Tuesday. It appears that remnant convection will be ongoing at the start of the period near/just ahead of the surface front across northern Kentucky/southern Indiana/Ohio. This will likely re-intensify and continue to expand south and east during the morning as daytime heating begins. Strong daytime heating and moist profiles should support moderate to strong instability developing though the afternoon. Storm mode appears to be generally linear, with the greatest threat being for damaging wind given more linear forcing/initially boundary parallel shear along residual southward moving outflow. As such, the primary hazard will be damaging wind. Additional thunderstorm development is likely along and ahead of the front through the afternoon with increasing forcing for ascent with approaching shortwaves. Strong deep layer shear may become more boundary perpendicular supporting a supercell or two as the front sags south, with potential for large hail and perhaps a tornado. Confidence in this scenario is on the lower end and the primary hazard is expected to be a secondary wave of damaging wind potential. Should storms be able to cluster and establish a more organized cold pool, potential for some corridor of significant wind may be possible. Overall, no significant wind areas were included given low confidence in exact morning storm evolution and concerns over generally poor lapse rates. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2026
  21. yoda
  22. yoda
    Day 2 ENH up
  23. yoda

    TS Bertha

    yoda replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters

  24. yoda

    TS Bertha

    yoda replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters

    Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 The area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring in the northeastern Gulf of America during the past few days has now developed a well-defined low-level circulation. The convective activity remains patchy, likely due to intrusions of dry air from its northeast, but there is enough persistent convection near the center and in bands on its northeast and southwest sides to justify this system as a tropical depression. The circulation is sprawling and still weak, however. Based on surface observations and earlier ASCAT data, the initial intensity is set at 25 kt and the minimum pressure is 1011 mb. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system later today, and their data will be helpful to better assess the system’s initial structure. The initial motion of the system is difficult to know since it has only recently become well defined, but our best guess is north-northwestward at 3 kt. The system is currently caught in weak steering currents between a ridge over the western Atlantic, another ridge over the south-central and southwestern U.S., and a trough over the northeast U.S. This pattern should take the cyclone slowly northwestward through Monday night, and the system will likely be close enough to the Florida Panhandle to bring the potential for tropical storm conditions there. After that time, a turn to the west or west-northwest seems to be the most likely scenario as the ridge over the southern U.S. builds eastward, taking the system near or across the Gulf coast during the middle and latter portions of the week. The NHC track forecast lies a touch to the south of middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the usually best-performing aids HCCA, TVCN, and GDMI. The sprawling nature of the system, nearby dry air, and some northeasterly vertical wind shear suggest that any strengthening should be slow to occur, especially in the short term. Nonetheless, the system is expected to become a tropical storm as it approaches the Florida Panhandle during the next day or two. There seems to be a better opportunity for the system to strengthen once it turns westward, however, the amount of strengthening will be dependent on how far offshore the circulation is. The NHC track forecast lies toward the upper end of the model guidance, however, there is a low amount of confidence given the uncertainty of how much land interaction will take place. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. 2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be required for portions of that area over the next day or two. 3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 28.0N 85.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 28.2N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 28.5N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 28.8N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 29.1N 86.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 29.4N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 29.7N 88.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 29.5N 91.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 29.7N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
  25. yoda

    TS Bertha

    yoda replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters

    Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 85.3W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Florida from Ochlockonee River to the Alabama border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48 hours. Additional watches will likely be required over the next day or two. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 85.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and a slow northwestward or north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Monday. The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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