yoda

I know we have to go where the facts and science take us... but i admit I would be disappointed if Fay was a hurricane for a brief moment if we don't have an actual one for the rest of the season

I'm willing to bet DCA makes a run at 90 tomorrow

Looking like first frost/freeze potential next week west of BR

Looks like another real taste of fall next week... LWX has highs near 60 on Tuesday in DC metro with lows in the mid 40s... looks like lows in the upper 30s possible Monday night out towards i81 corridor and west

I could see a sneaky 90 around on Thursday or Friday

Been raining here for a few hours... getting breezy too

Breezy and some light rain here now

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 PM MST Fri Sep 25 2026 A NOAA research aircraft has found that Polo remains a very powerful category 5 hurricane. The highest flight level winds measured by the aircraft were 165 kt in the northeast quadrant, and since that measurement the central pressure has decreased a couple millibars, to 913. An UAS launched from the plane measured a peak wind just above 200 kt at an altitude just below 500 m, which corresponds to a 10 m wind of 150-155 kt based on an experimental wind reduction model. Taken all together, this data supports an initial intensity of 155 kt. The NOAA aircraft reported that there may be signs of an eyewall replacement cycle beginning. Although this does not appear to be having an impact on the hurricane yet, it does highlight that fluctuations in the intensity of Polo are likely over the next 24 h while it remains over warm waters. After that, some weakening is expected as Polo begins to move into a region with lower ocean heat content and the vertical wind shear increases slightly. However, it is expected to remain a powerful major hurricane through the weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is still near the upper-end of the intensity guidance and is very similar to the previous advisory. Only small adjustments were made to the official track forecast, with the biggest change being that the anticipated forward motion for Polo is slightly faster in this advisory. Polo is still expected to turn gradually northwestward, then northward this weekend as it moves around the western side of a ridge centered over northern Mexico. Then early next week an upper-level trough approaching from the northwest will likely cause the hurricane to turn northeastward toward Baja California Sur and west-central Mexico. The AI models, notably GDM and the experimental WeatherNext3, generally show a slightly faster motion than most of the dynamical guidance, and the model spread has increased at 72 h and beyond. The forecast confidence is correspondingly lower with this advisory. The NHC forecast is a blend of the consensus and continuity with the previous advisory. Based on the forecast track, watches could be required for portions of Baja California Sur as soon as tonight. Distant moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. Key Messages: 1. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. Watches could be required as early as tonight for portions of the area. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 17.2N 109.2W 155 KT 180 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 17.4N 110.6W 150 KT 175 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 18.2N 112.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 19.6N 113.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 21.5N 113.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 23.4N 113.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 25.1N 112.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 28.5N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/1800Z 32.0N 105.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 800 AM MST Fri Sep 25 2026 After regaining Category 5 status overnight, the remarkable satellite presentation of Polo indicates the hurricane has continued to intensify. The eye has contracted and warmed over the past several hours, with temperatures above 20 deg C measured inside the eye. A thick, solid ring of deep convection surrounds the center, with cloud tops as cold as -80 to -85 deg C. There were no indications of a concentric eyewall structure in 0905 UTC AMSR3 passive microwave imagery. The latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimates and a T7.5 Dvorak classification from TAFB support an initial intensity of 155 kt. A NOAA research aircraft mission is scheduled to investigate Polo later today. Polo continues moving westward (270/10 kt) along the south side of a mid-level ridge that extends across northern Mexico. This weekend, a deep-layer trough approaching from the west is expected to erode the steering ridge. This will cause Polo to turn northwestward and northward as it moves around the western side of the ridge. By Monday, the increasing influence of the upper trough should turn Polo northeastward toward Baja California Sur and west-central Mexico. The global models and AI-based guidance are generally in good agreement on this track evolution. The updated NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one, and is also a bit slower to come into better agreement with the latest multi-model consensus. Overall, the NHC forecast remains on the faster and right side of the envelope, closer to HCCA and GDMI. Based on this prediction, watches could be required for portions of the Baja California Peninsula as early as Saturday. Based on the aforementioned AMSR3 data, an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) does not appear imminent. Thus, further slight strengthening cannot be ruled out while Polo remains over very warm waters in a weaker shear environment. The vertical wind shear is expected to increase over the weekend, and because of this as well as the possibility of a future ERC, the NHC intensity forecast shows a weakening trend beginning on Saturday and continuing into next week. Regardless, Polo is predicted to approach Baja California Sur as a strong hurricane early next week, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. The NHC forecast remains on the higher side of the intensity guidance, generally following HCCA. Once land interaction occurs with the Baja California Peninsula and mainland Mexico, more rapid weakening is anticipated. Distant moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. Key Messages: 1. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. Watches could be required as early as Saturday for portions of the area. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 17.1N 108.5W 155 KT 180 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 17.2N 109.8W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 17.8N 111.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 18.9N 112.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 20.4N 113.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 22.0N 113.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 23.8N 113.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 26.9N 110.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 30.4N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Reinhart

BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 800 AM MST Fri Sep 25 2026 ...POLO IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 108.5W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...900 MB...26.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be required for a portion of the area as early as Saturday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 108.5 West. Polo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today. A gradual turn to the northwest and north is forecast on Saturday and Sunday, followed by a northeastward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach Baja California Sur early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible today, but some weakening is expected over the weekend. Polo is forecast to approach Baja California Sur as a strong hurricane early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 900 mb (26.58 inches).

Wait, in the desert?

Good thing hockey season starts soon

Welp....guess the Commanders are done. Bad way to end the half and Daniels got injured

Got close... but the ASCAT denied the upgrade Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 The convective organization of the depression has increased somewhat since the last advisory, with multiple convective bands in the northern semicircle. This increase is reflected in the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates now suggesting the cyclone has reached tropical storm strength. However, an ASCAT-C overpass showed maximum winds near 30 kt. Based mainly on that the initial intensity will remain 30 kt. Cirrus cloud motion indicate that an upper-level cyclonic shear axis is located near or just south of the center, with very strong upper-level westerly flow over the southern part of the low-level circulation. The initial motion is 020/4 kt. The depression is in an area of weak steering currents between a low- to mid-level ridge to the east and a deep-layer mid-latitude trough to the northwest. During the next couple of days, the southern portion of this trough is expected to weaken, with a low- to mid-level ridge developing to the west and northwest of the tropical cyclone. This should result in the cyclone stopping its north-northeastward motion and turning toward the southwest. A general southwestward motion is then likely until the system dissipates. The track guidance has shifted a bit westward after 36 h, and the new forecast track is also nudged a bit west of the previous track. The dynamical models are forecasting a small upper-level low to develop along the cyclonic shear axis near or south of the tropical depression during the next 12 h or so. This is likely create a less hostile shear environment around the depression that should allow some intensification. After 24 h, the models are in good agreement that strong upper-level northerly or northwesterly winds will move over the cyclone, creating strong shear and causing weakening. While the models forecast the shear to diminish after 48-60 h, the cyclone or its remnants will be in an area of dry air and subsidence that cause cause the convection to dissipate. The new intensity forecast shows the depression becoming a tropical storm for a day or so, followed by weakening to a remnant low between 60-72 h. Based on the dynamical models, the remnant low is forecast to weaken to a trough between 96-120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 33.3N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 33.8N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 34.0N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 33.6N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 32.7N 32.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 30.4N 35.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0000Z 29.0N 39.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Not yet Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026 A new burst of convection has formed over the depression, that mostly covers the center of the system. However, the bulk of the convection is still on the northern side of the cyclone at this time, implying that some wind shear is still affecting it. The most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, which is the same as the previous cycle. Therefore, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt for this advisory. Tropical Depression Six is still moving slowly, but has started to show a bit more motion towards the north-northeast. The cyclone should move more northeastward for roughly the next 36 h as a trough to the north weakens a low- to mid-level ridge to the northeast. Following this, at around 48 h, the ridge should build back towards the west, which in turn will force the cyclone to move southwestward for the rest of the forecast period. The current NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous forecast track with small adjustments to the track and speed, and remains in good agreement with HCCA and GDMI. The cyclone should move into a slightly more favorable environment, between two areas of intense shear, and so there a good chance for intensification to occur for the next day or so. After 36 h, the system should move into an area of higher shear as the previously mentioned trough moves closer. This should lead to a gradual weakening of the system. The depression is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and then dissipate around 120 h. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast of when the cyclone will become post-tropical and then dissipate, as both could possibly occur sooner than what is currently forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is still in the middle of the guidance envelope, and is closely align with HCCA and just under GDMI for peak intensity. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 32.9N 33.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 33.3N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 33.8N 32.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 33.7N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 32.9N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 31.7N 33.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 30.5N 34.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1800Z 28.6N 38.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Berg

Albernaz back for 2027 per Elias... Mancini to retire https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/49982125/orioles-activate-ex-closer-felix-bautista-trey-mancini-retires Mike Elias, Baltimore's president of baseball operations, said Saturday that Albernaz would return in 2027. The Orioles are 75-79 in Albernaz's first season and began the day three games out of an American League wild-card spot. "It's a great vote of confidence," Albernaz said. "Obviously, this season hasn't gone the way I wanted it by any stretch, by how the players wanted the season to go, how the front office, how the fanbase. ... That's something I wear pretty heavily because of the seat I'm in and I don't take that lightly." In addition, Trey Mancini signed a one-day contract to retire with the Orioles, the franchise he played for during the bulk of his eight-year career in the majors.

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026 A recent ASCAT pass showed that the system NHC has been monitoring southwest of the Azores (AL99) has a well-defined circulation and peak wind vectors were around 26 kt. The stucture of the cyclone still has the bulk of the convection on the northern side, and that area of convection has persisted for more than 12 hours. However, the cyclone appears to lie along the northern edge of a zone of strong westerly shear. In addition the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, which has persisted since the last forecast cycle. Based on the given data, this system has been started as Tropical Depression Six with an initial intensity of 30 kt. Tropical Depression Six is currently meandering, however it should start to increase in speed and move generally to the northeast for the next 36 h as a trough to the north weakens the ridge to the northeast. Around 48 h, the ridge is expected to build back, which will force the cyclone to move towards the southwest. The system is expected to remain on this heading for the rest of the forecast period. The current NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA and GDMI. The depression is expected to move into a slightly more favorable environment, between two areas of intense shear. This could allow for some slight intensification to occur for the next day or so. After 36 h, the system is expected to move into an area of higher shear as the previously mentioned trough starts to negatively impact the cyclone, thus resulting in gradual weakening. The system is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and then dissipate around 120 h. However, the guidance from the GFS and ECMWF show significant differences in when dissipation occurs. The GFS has the cyclone dissipating much sooner around 72 h, while the ECMWF has dissipation occuring around 120 h. The current NHC intensity forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is slightly under HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 32.6N 33.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 33.0N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 33.6N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 33.8N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 33.4N 32.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 32.4N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 31.0N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z 28.9N 37.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Berg

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 33.6W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 33.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). This system is expected to generally move to the northeast for the next 24 to 36 hours, before turning toward the southwest in a couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, however after that gradual weakening is expected to occur. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Katz/Berg

It will be TD 6 at 11

Nothing at 5pm

I'm kind of fine with punting December. We haven't really had much cold and snow the past few years anyway in that month. Granted, I don't want 70s... but it seems as many knowledgeable posters have stated across the numerous threads... December is gone

I vaguely remember seeing that somewhere too

It has @EastCoast NPZ in the heavy rain totals... so we have to toss it

I understand that... what i meant is do I keep my spotter ID forever and not have to take another class or does NWS recycle them

Anybody know if you need a refresher? Like I still have my spotter ID and such... but last class I took was about 8 years ago I think?