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  1. yoda
  2. yoda
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch up until 11pm URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 588 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Central Pennsylvania Virginia Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple organized clusters of storms will likely cross the mountains and generally persist east-southeastward into the region, as the downstream air mass near/east of the mountains destabilizes in the wake of early morning storms and cloud cover. Damaging winds are the most common severe hazard expected, but some tornado potential may exist as well, particularly near an effective warm front. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Altoona PA to 50 miles south southwest of Staunton VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
  3. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 435 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Garrett County in western Maryland... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 434 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 8 miles east of Point Marion to 11 miles east of Brookhaven to Newburg to 7 miles east of Grafton, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Bayard, Bittinger, Grantsville, Loch Lynn Heights, Friendsville, Deer Park, Accident, Redhouse, Hutton, Gorman, Jennings, Keysers Ridge, Mineral Spring, Crellin, Deep Creek Lake State Park, Swallow Falls State Park, McHenry, and Selbysport. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. If on or near Deep Creek Lake, get away from the water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now. && LAT...LON 3972 7911 3930 7930 3930 7933 3928 7935 3927 7937 3924 7942 3922 7943 3920 7947 3920 7949 3972 7948 TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 284DEG 36KT 3975 7974 3965 7968 3940 7982 3938 7989 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
  4. yoda
    Updated afternoon AFD from LWX DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe weather and flash flooding are possible through tonight. Very active weather is expected over the next 12 hours, with the threat for flash flooding, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. As of 330 PM, regional radar shows two developing MCSs across western Pennsylvania and West Virginia, both with a history of producing damaging winds. These MCSs are expected to continue eastward into our area over the next few hours. Skies have cleared out ahead of the storms, so strong daytime heating is underway and conditions are destabilizing. MLCAPE values are forecast to increase to around 1500-2000 J/kg ahead of the line, with effective bulk shear increasing to around 30-35 knots. This parameter space should allow these storms to continue across much of the forecast area, leading to a threat for primarily damaging winds. With around 30 knots of 0-3 km shear oriented roughly perpendicular to the lines, a brief QLCS tornado also can`t be ruled out. This threat could be locally maximized as the line encounters a warm front oriented from north to south extending from near Frederick to Fredericksburg. The storms should tend to weaken later tonight as they move east of this boundary into a lower instability airmass. Storms are right on the doorstep of the Alleghenies at the moment, and should press eastward toward the I-95 corridor by around 8-10 PM. Additional storms are also in the process of developing across central Indiana to north central Ohio. Some recent CAM runs hint that those storms may develop into a secondary line that would move through a couple hours after the first round. There are also some hints of backbuilding, especially in the DC Metro area between those rounds as low- level flow picks up behind the first MCS, equaling or exceeding winds higher up in the atmosphere. This results in Corfidi upshear vectors near zero, suggesting that backbuilding and localized training could be possible in the vicinity of the warm front. Thermodynamically, the environment is extremely favorable for heavy rainfall production, with precipitable water values well in excess of 2 inches, and forecast to potentially near 2.5 inches this evening. That coupled with MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg and deep warm cloud layers will make any storms capable of producing very heavy instantaneous rainfall rates. That coupled with the potential for multiple rounds of storms, and/or training/backbuilding raises concerns for flash flooding this evening. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Garrett County, which had a flood event a few nights ago. Another Flood Watch may be considered for the DC Metro shortly, given the above conditions. Storms are expected to clear the area by around 2 or 3 AM, with dry conditions later tonight. Additional thunderstorms may be possible tomorrow afternoon, but coverage of storms is expected to be much lower, and the threat for both severe thunderstorms and flash flooding is expected to be much lower, if not zero.
  5. yoda
    Interesting... Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 410 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 MDZ509-510-162130- Eastern Garrett-Western Garrett- 410 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 ...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING GARRETT COUNTY... At 405 PM EDT, radar indicated severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Jefferson Boro to near Cassville to Monongah to near Enterprise. Movement was east at 50 mph. Locations impacted include... Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Bayard, Bittinger, Grantsville, Loch Lynn Heights, Friendsville, Deer Park, Accident, Redhouse, Hutton, Gorman, Jennings, Crellin, Deep Creek Lake State Park, Swallow Falls State Park, McHenry, Big Run State Park, Piney Grove, and McComas Beach. This includes Interstate 68 in Maryland between mile markers 1 and 30. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this line of storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. If you are on or near Deep Creek Lake, be preapred to take swift action to get out of the water and move indoors or inside a vehicle as storms approach. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
  6. yoda
    Mesoscale Discussion 2000 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Areas affected...south-central Pennsylvania...the Maryland and West Virginia Panhandles...and northern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161928Z - 162130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts is expected to increase late this afternoon into evening. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely. DISCUSSION...In the wake of an MCV moving from south-central into southeast PA, clouds are gradually clearing, allowing for increased diabatic heating this afternoon. When coupled with a moist boundary layer characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F, latest objective analysis indicates MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg with decreasing convective inhibition. Additional air mass destabilization is expected through the remainder of the afternoon, allowing ongoing QLCSs to spread east into the discussion area. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard with the most intense storms, especially in the vicinity of any embedded bowing structures that may persist. A brief tornado or two is possible in areas that can maintain more of a southerly wind component, where low-level shear is locally enhanced. ..Mead/Guyer.. 08/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ... LAT...LON 38357955 38947931 39407927 40267895 40477848 40397801 39307761 38237782 37877812 37537857 37497918 37897993 38357955 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
  7. yoda
    Watch coming shortly... looks like for i95 corridor westward https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2000.html
  8. yoda
    1630z OTLK from SPC disco for our area While storms have weakened, showers/cloud cover remain prevalent near/east of the Appalachians at midday across the Mid-Atlantic region. This will tend to limit/delay destabilization in many areas (especially with north-northeastward extent). That said, air mass recovery/advection is expected from the west, with ample upstream clearing per visible satellite imagery across the Cumberland Plateau into parts of the Allegheny Plateau. Pending the timing/location of destabilization, some terrain/lee trough-related development may diurnally occur, although the most prevalent/more certain scenario may be for potentially severe storms to spread into the region this evening. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard regionally, although a tornado could occur, attributable to MCV-enhanced flow and/or with any storms interacting with the effective warm front across the Mid-Atlantic region.
  9. yoda
    Any idea why 1630z OTLK from SPC is late? I'm checking kamala and SPC... I don't see it
  10. yoda
    I thought KH3 was okay tbh
  11. yoda
    Finally... https://comicbook.com/gaming/news/kingdom-hearts-4-release-window-and-first-new-world-confirmed-in-new-trailer/
  12. yoda
    I am just on Facebook mostly now. I have an account on X, but barely use it
  13. yoda
    Understood, but seems LWX disagrees in their morning AFD? Or am I misreading? In addition to any heavy rain threat is the potential for bands of strong to severe thunderstorms. Increased flow down into the low levels would be favorable for organized line segments capable of mixing down damaging wind gusts in any organizing cold pools. The saturated profiles could result in water loading downdrafts, though the lack of mid-level dry air may keep DCAPE low putting a ceiling on just how high damaging wind gusts can get (most likely in the 50-65 mph range). The increased low- level flow and SRH coupled with moist profiles could lend to the threat of a few tornadoes as well. Although the prospect of early morning clouds and precip may at first glance seem to preclude a higher potential for heating and severe weather later in the day, the high low-level moisture content coupled with steady height falls aloft means that heating will not need to be as robust to result in sufficient CAPE for strong to severe convection, especially given the shear that will be present. Some severe weather or flood threat may persist into the night given the above listed factors.
  14. yoda
    LWX seems to be hitting the threat a bit harder in this afternoon AFD DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe thunderstorms and some instances of flash flooding are possible on Sunday. Some residual convective activity may be ongoing on Sunday morning. This remains to be seen and will be guided by the degree of overnight instability and boundary placement. How the atmosphere recovers through the day should ultimately dictate the degree of severe thunderstorm threat during the core diurnal heating hours. The ingredients are certainly present for a more impactful event if meteorological parameters all come together. Looking a bit more closely at this event, a broad mid/upper ridge persist across the Four Corners eastward to the southwestern Atlantic. Amplified flow north of this expansive anticyclone will continue to be a conduit to active convection, many in the form of mesoscale convective systems (MCS). As mentioned above, a remnant MCS might still be ongoing early Sunday across the region. While above average heights persist, expect some non-zero height falls to cross the area in response to an approaching shortwave. Within this northwesterly flow aloft, vertical shear is ample for the time of year, generally around 30 to 35 knots. Depending on model choice, mixed-layer CAPE values approach 1,500 to 2,500 J/kg. The combination of these two will easily support a risk of severe weather. While damaging wind gusts are the most likely threat, other severe types loom if storms can remain discrete in nature. Additionally, a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall continues along much of the Alleghenies eastward along/north of I-66/U.S. 50. Precipitable water values rise markedly, possibly into the 2 to 2.25 inch range. While a single thunderstorm will be capable of torrential downpours, the bigger threat would be for repeat and/or training convection. The latter potential exists which supports the flash flood risk. Although drought continues over much of the region, many areas have seen a one category improvement over the past week. Convection will likely be ongoing into Sunday night with the cold front not passing through until early Monday.
  15. yoda
    Oh ok 499 NWUS51 KLWX 142303 LSRLWX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 703 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0541 PM Hail 2 E Charlottesville 38.04N 78.44W 08/14/2026 M2.50 inch Albemarle VA Local Official Also reports of hail damage to vehicles at the same location. && Event Number LWX2608205
  16. yoda
    BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lala Advisory Number 9 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Fri Aug 14 2026 ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNING ISSUED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 149.5W ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch for Maui County has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Oahu and Kauai Counties. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Hawaii County A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Oahu * Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
  17. yoda
    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=PNS
  18. yoda
    91mph wind gust reported by spotter 2 E Mokena IL 96mph wind gust reported by private weather station 2 NNW Shorewood IL
  19. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 INC089-127-111645- /O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0075.000000T0000Z-260811T1645Z/ Porter IN-Lake IN- 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT FOR PORTER AND EAST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTIES... At 1107 AM CDT, a severe squall line capable of producing both tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage was racing toward Porter County at over 75 mph. HAZARD...Tornadoes and wind gusts in excess of 100 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. These dangerous storms will be near... Valparaiso around 1115 AM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 4122 8697 4127 8706 4129 8712 4127 8719 4124 8722 4162 8723 4163 8716 4165 8715 4165 8710 4171 8693 4124 8693 TIME...MOT...LOC 1607Z 275DEG 59KT 4145 8727 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
  20. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 INC089-127-111645- /O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0075.000000T0000Z-260811T1645Z/ Porter IN-Lake IN- 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT FOR PORTER AND EAST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTIES... At 1107 AM CDT, a severe squall line capable of producing both tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage was racing toward Porter County at over 75 mph. HAZARD...Tornadoes and wind gusts in excess of 100 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. These dangerous storms will be near... Valparaiso around 1115 AM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 4122 8697 4127 8706 4129 8712 4127 8719 4124 8722 4162 8723 4163 8716 4165 8715 4165 8710 4171 8693 4124 8693 TIME...MOT...LOC 1607Z 275DEG 59KT 4145 8727 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
  21. yoda
    Oh ok Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 INC089-127-111645- /O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0075.000000T0000Z-260811T1645Z/ Porter IN-Lake IN- 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT FOR PORTER AND EAST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTIES... At 1107 AM CDT, a severe squall line capable of producing both tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage was racing toward Porter County at over 75 mph. HAZARD...Tornadoes and wind gusts in excess of 100 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. These dangerous storms will be near... Valparaiso around 1115 AM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 4122 8697 4127 8706 4129 8712 4127 8719 4124 8722 4162 8723 4163 8716 4165 8715 4165 8710 4171 8693 4124 8693 TIME...MOT...LOC 1607Z 275DEG 59KT 4145 8727 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
  22. yoda
    Warned for gusts to 100 mph now
  23. yoda
    Tosses out 3 straight days of all time record highs
  24. yoda
    Um, can we not have what the 00z Euro tossed out in the super extended range (days 10-15)? Definitely do not want. Yes it will change at 12z... but no, do not want
  25. yoda
    I'm more watching the N IL complex
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