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yoda

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  1. yoda
    TWs starting to fly from PBZ
  2. yoda
    Mesoscale Discussion 2221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 032219Z - 040015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing Mesoscale Convective Systems will continue to move southeast this evening. The airmass ahead of these storms remains very hot and unstable. A wind damage threat is expected to persist into the greater Washington D.C. area later this evening. As such, a new watch will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Multiple southeast moving mesoscale convective systems (MCS) are ongoing across portions of northern/eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania. The leading MCS is currently located across the greater Pittsburgh area, with the trailing MCS across moving across northern Ohio and southern Lake Erie. Effective layer shear across these linear MCSs is characterized by 30-40 knots, which is more than sufficient to support ongoing organization as the clusters move southeast. Additionally, the airmass ahead of these storms remains very hot and humid, with surface temperatures in the 90Fs and dewpoints in the low-to-mid 70Fs. The result is steep low-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg ahead of these storms, all the way into the greater Washington D.C. area. As evening progresses and the boundary layer cools, low-level lapse rates will weaken. However, the degree of thunderstorm organization and the very unstable environment ahead of the MCSs will maintain a threat for damaging wind well into the evening hours. A new watch will likely be needed to the southeast of ongoing watches across Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia. ..Marsh/Smith.. 09/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 40907856 40647769 39867645 39817644 39007592 38017562 37607609 37527666 37797754 38477871 38967941 39727985 40487948 40907856 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
  3. yoda
    @Eskimo Joe @high risk @Kmlwx Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming soon for the region
  4. yoda
    Doubt they will be as strong if they reach here... but... this is headed into Pittsburgh metro shortly Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 531 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 OHC029-PAC003-007-019-125-WVC029-032200- /O.CON.KPBZ.SV.W.0335.000000T0000Z-260903T2200Z/ Columbiana OH-Allegheny PA-Beaver PA-Butler PA-Washington PA- Hancock WV- 531 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIANA, NORTHWESTERN ALLEGHENY, NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON, SOUTHERN BUTLER, BEAVER AND HANCOCK COUNTIES... At 531 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from 6 miles northeast of Zelienople to near Midland, or along a line from 10 miles west of Butler to 7 miles southeast of East Liverpool, moving southeast at 20 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR BEAVER, MONACA, CONWAY, ALIQUIPPA. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. Locations impacted include... Ross Township, McCandless Township, Cranberry, Moon Township, Butler, Franklin Park, East Liverpool, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Monaca, Hampton Township, Robinson Township, Economy, Bellevue, Kennedy Township, Ambridge, Wexford, Homeacre-Lyndora, West View and Stowe Township. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Seek shelter now inside an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built structure. These storms are capable of producing widespread destructive winds and large hail. && LAT...LON 4062 8062 4079 8053 4085 8025 4085 8016 4087 8016 4088 8013 4094 8007 4082 7971 4056 7999 4031 8028 4053 8062 4056 8065 TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 294DEG 18KT 4091 8023 4077 8041 4063 8061 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH
  5. yoda
    LWX AFD did mention a boundary in the area
  6. yoda
    Although they seem more piecemeal, 19z and 20z HRRR are speeding up the "threat"... now it arrives around 11pm to midnight. Earlier HRRR runs were after midnight to 3am
  7. yoda
    I see golf ball sized hail and winds to 70mph in the warnings ETA - LSRs coming out with numerous trees, power lines, and power poles downed
  8. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0650.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 650 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Maryland Western and Central Pennsylvania Eastern West Virginia * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 435 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of severe storm clusters are expected to move into the region from the northwest and impact the region this evening, with wind damage as the most common hazard.
  9. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2218.html Mesoscale Discussion 2218 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania...western Maryland...and far northern West Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649... Valid 032016Z - 032215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649 continues. SUMMARY...Supercells across eastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania will likely grow upscale and pose a more substantial wind threat downstream into central Pennsylvania through the evening. Downstream watch issuance is expected soon. DISCUSSION...Discrete to semi-discrete supercells are evident in regional radar imagery across northeast OH and northwest PA with a few instances of severe hail noted over the past hour. Regional VWPs continue to sample elongated hodographs favorable for splitting supercells with an attendant threat for large hail for the next hour or so. Given the propensity for splitting cells and tight clustering of convection, upscale growth into one or more organized lines appears probable over the coming hours. As this occurs, the potential for severe wind should increase as convection moves into central PA where air mass recovery has been ongoing through the afternoon (MLCAPE has increased to 1000-1500 J/kg per recent mesoanalysis estimates). ..Moore.. 09/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41068148 41388079 41698017 41397732 41157698 40807689 39967720 39607747 39487796 39527869 40278123 40498158 40728172 40888169 41068148 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
  10. yoda
    Watch needed soon for PA into parts of W and N MD per MCD
  11. yoda
    @high risk when looking at future radar, should i be looking more at composite or 1km AGL? Or neither lol
  12. yoda
    Granted its 1km AGL reflectivity and composite reflectivity, but I don't hate what the 18z RRFS is showing between 02z and 06z for the region
  13. yoda
    Fwiw, both 16z and 17z HRRR have an MCS/line/complex come rolling through the region between midnight and 3am. 17z HRRR encompasses more of the region than the 16z run did. Not saying its severe, just something to think about overnight as we watch it develop out to our NW ETA - 18z HRRR same idea... but an hour or so faster
  14. yoda
    Excellent afternoon AFD from LWX for tonight into tomorrow .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms today and Friday. Clouds have readily thinned in the wake of morning shower and thunderstorm activity. This is allowing for temperatures to rise quickly through the 80s to near 90. This heating will play an important role in the potential for severe weather through the evening hours. As of 2:30 PM, a few discrete (transient supercell) thunderstorms had developed over the Shenandoah Valley, and had a history of producing large hail and wind damage. These storms are developing in an area that has been clear since daybreak, and in an area of enhanced low-level convergence due to residual outflow from morning convection to the north, a washed out front, and terrain circulations. Anticipate this activity to continue into the late afternoon hours with a risk of localized damaging wind gusts and large hail. Meanwhile, upstream over the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, a large reservoir of MLCAPE 3000-4000+ J/kg exists. The north end of this CAPE pool lies along the southern edge of the westerlies, with a 100+ kt 300 hPa jet streak and mid-level shortwave impulse located just to the north. This setup is favorable for the development of a Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCS), which is an organized line of thunderstorms that persists for several hours. Locally, mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km (per latest mesoanalysis and the KIAD 12Z RAOB) atop a very moist boundary layer with surface dew points well into the 70s F will lead to increasing CAPE despite the late start at surface heating. The question then becomes just how organized upstream storms become, and how stable the boundary layer is heading further into the evening. A more organized and potent line of storms a bit earlier in the evening would result in a notably higher risk for more numerous damaging wind gusts, especially focused along the residual baroclinic zone/theta-e gradient which should lie near the Potomac River/US-50/I-66 this evening. A somewhat slower and/or more disorganized line would result in a lower risk for severe surface gusts, though some isolated damaging winds would still be possible given high CAPE/DCAPE and the shallow nature of the stable layer near the surface. Areas of western Maryland and perhaps into the eastern West Virginia panhandle are most likely to see the storms prior to the onset of appreciable nocturnal boundary layer stability. The area remains in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather from SPC as of the midday outlook update, driven mostly by the threat of damaging wind gusts. There is a threat for large hail in stronger cores, though mid-level lapse rates will gradually become less steep tonight. A linear storm mode would tend to be less favorable for large hail production (as opposed to discrete/individual cells), as well. A few discrete cells are possible this evening in weak low-level WAA, however, independent of any linear system that may affect the region. These storms would be most likely to develop over northern and central Virginia into central Maryland along a weak surface trough and the aforementioned moisture/instability gradient. Additional showers and thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, are anticipated again on Friday. Timing is a bit uncertain given the subtle waves aloft, but increasing low-level convergence paired with another upper impulse may very well result in another round or two of storms with a damaging wind risk. The latest guidance has nudged the threat a bit further north, encompassing areas as far north as I-70 or the Mason-Dixon line (as opposed to I-66/US-50). This will depend on any residual early day clouds or convection, of course.
  15. yoda
    SVR warned for hail to ping pong ball size and winds to 60mph
  16. yoda
    Radarscope claims rotation with the storm out in W VA (near Broadway)
  17. yoda
    ENH risk introduced in PA/OH on 1630z OTLK from SPC
  18. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0646.html
  19. yoda
    And a Severe Thunderstorm Watch just issued S and SE of there to the Mason Dixon line until midnight
  20. yoda
    Enhanced Risk was added on 1630z OTLK up in PA/NY
  21. yoda
  22. yoda
    Watch up until 5pm URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 643 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Northern Virginia The Eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1140 AM until 500 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A well-organized thunderstorm cluster should continue to pose some threat for scattered damaging winds as it moves quickly southeastward this afternoon. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores.
  23. yoda
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for Central and Southern PA until 2pm
  24. yoda
    LWX AFD from this morning does also state severe storms are possible well into the night KEY MESSAGE 1...Daily severe weather threat through the end of the week. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms, some likely severe with damaging winds, are likely today through Friday as upper level disturbances move from the Great Lks into the Mid Atlantic states. Already seen a small cluster of thunderstorms over south central Pennsylvania that will move through the area later this morning. Two additional rounds of thunderstorms seem likely today, one this afternoon, and a second one late this evening into the overnight hours tonight into Thursday. Thunderstorms will ride southeast along and north of a backdoor front currently pushing south through northern VA and southern MD as seen on TDWRs and wind shifts to the NE at IAD and DCA a couple of hours ago. The severe threat will not be necessarily tied to the afternoon and evening hours as record warm nighttime temperatures and high humidity yield strong instability and keep thunderstorms going strong well into the overnight hours. By Friday, cold front should have cleared much of the forecast area causing a stabilizing effect limiting the risk of severe weather, but showers and thunderstorms will still be possible north of the sfc front.
  25. yoda
    1300z SPC OTLK disco says the morning convection is causing question marks for later Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur. Scattered severe gusts and more sporadic occurrences of large hail appear possible from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains today into night. ...Northeast States... A complex but potentially active convective day is in store for parts of the northeast US today. A fast-moving MCS and associated mid-level shortwave trough is over Lake Michigan. This system is forecast to track rapidly eastward across Lower MI and southwest ON this morning before emerging into western NY/PA this afternoon. A consensus of overnight CAM solutions indicate this will be the focus for strong-severe thunderstorms that track east-southeastward during the afternoon and evening toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Ample low-level moisture is present in this corridor. This along with daytime heating well into the 80s and steep low-level lapse rates will favor damaging wind gust potential in the strongest storms. A north-south surface boundary is expected to lie from central NY into east-central PA this afternoon, where low-level shear will be locally enhanced to pose some risk of a few tornadoes. The primary uncertainty for a more widespread severe event today is the presence of considerable morning convection currently over northwest PA and western NY. These storms are well-ahead of the main forcing feature, and decrease confidence in significant destabilization over the primary risk area this afternoon. These early storms may pose a damaging wind and hail risk through the day, especially after a few hours of heating.
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