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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Afternoon AFD from LWX KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity returns for Thursday, along with chances for severe thunderstorms. A potent shortwave on the southern periphery of a much broader upper low over Canada will track through the Great Lakes on Wednesday night. This will force a highly anomalous area of low pressure to track across the eastern Great Lakes. In fact, this low could potentially break all-time minimum sea level pressure records for the month of June across portions of Wisconsin and Michigan as it tracks through later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Most solutions have this low tracking across southern Ontario and Quebec at around 985-990 hPa on Thursday. An unseasonably strong wind field aloft will accompany the highly anomalous low, as 850 hPa winds climb to around 30-50 knots and 500 hPa winds increase to in excess of 50 knots. Low-level south to southwesterly flow will also draw a hot and humid airmass north into the area. Temperatures are forecast to soar into the upper 80s and 90s across the bulk of the forecast area, while dewpoints increase into the mid to upper 60s. This overlap of a very hot and humid airmass with highly anomalous winds aloft raises concerns for severe thunderstorms locally on Thursday. It`s still to early to get into the finer scale details, but soundings show an environment that is very favorable for the production of damaging winds. SPC currently has the entire area outlooked with a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. We`ll continue to monitor this threat for severe thunderstorms over the coming days. Even outside of thunderstorms, winds should be breezy, potentially gusting in excess of 30 mph even in clear air. The combination of heat and background winds will be something that we don`t experience often here in the Mid-Atlantic.
  2. yoda
    This is what LWX had in their AFD this morning re Thursday Beginning Thursday, a strong surface low will push east past the Great Lakes with a stemming cold front that will push across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This cold front could result in multiple showers and thunderstorms throughout the region, with some becoming severe. There is already a 30%-45% severe probability noted in NCAR`s AI model, and a 15%-30% severe probability noted in CSU`s ML model. Timing and exact hazards are still the primary uncertainties being 5 days out, but early markers are definitely showing an early widespread severe risk with this system.
  3. yoda
    EZF storm went severe quick
  4. yoda
    Came out 15 minutes ago
  5. yoda
    TOG near Sykesville PA Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 445 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 PAC065-142100- /O.CON.KPBZ.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-260614T2100Z/ Jefferson PA- 445 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 ...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON PA COUNTY... At 445 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Reynoldsville, or 7 miles north of Punxsutawney, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Reynoldsville, Sykesville and Anita. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built building away from windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4106 7902 4113 7880 4099 7880 4099 7898 TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 259DEG 25KT 4103 7899 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...<1.00 IN
  6. yoda
    Per LWX, on the 12z KIAD sounding, PWAT was 1.05. On the 18z, it was 1.52
  7. yoda
    Confirmed TOG by spotters BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Cleveland OH 425 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Crawford County in northwestern Pennsylvania... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 425 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Cambridge Springs, or 9 miles north of Meadville, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * The tornado will be near... Meadville and Cambridge Springs around 430 PM EDT. Guys Mills around 435 PM EDT. Lincolnville, Canadohta Lake, and Riceville around 440 PM EDT. Titusville around 450 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Venango, Townville, Woodcock, Blooming Valley, Saegertown, and Hydetown.
  8. yoda
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 335 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 415 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Western and Central Maryland Central and Northern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 415 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon and evening within the warm, moist, and unstable environment in place across the region. Recent 18Z sounding at IAD sampled 42 kt of 0-6 km shear, which is more than sufficient for updraft organization. General expectation is for multiple rounds of occasionally severe storms, with damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard. Isolated instances of large hail could occur as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northeast of Martinsburg WV to 40 miles southeast of Lynchburg VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
  9. yoda
  10. yoda
    There it is... 80%... watch needed soon https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1141.html Mesoscale Discussion 1141 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Areas affected...portions of Virginia...far southern Pennsylvania...eastern Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 141917Z - 142115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters will move eastward with damaging wind potential into the afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity across the Shenandoah Valley and Blue Ridge Mountains will increase in coverage and intensity as they shift eastward into the more favorable air mass across central/eastern Virginia this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development is likely downstream of the ongoing activity, with several areas of deepening cumulus noted in visible satellite. Mostly sunny skies through the morning has allowed for strong daytime heating and warming, with temperatures warming into the mid 90s. Higher theta-e air is advecting northward, with around 1000-2000 J/kg across southern Virginia. Steep low-level lapse rates are noted in SPC Mesoanalysis (7-8 C/km) and in the 18z RAOB from IAD. Though deep layer shear is marginal (around 20-30 kts), very warm and unstable conditions amid steep low to mid level lapse rates will support potential for water laden downdrafts and severe winds. A watch will likely be needed to cover this potential this afternoon. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 37138079 38198017 39397896 40127747 39997643 39767636 38557680 37327783 36827815 36537946 36688084 36838089 37138079 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
  11. yoda
    MCD should be coming soon
  12. yoda
    Re Sunday severe threat from SPC -- 30 wind was backed westward to i81 corridor... 2% tor also moved slightly NWward compared to the morning Day 2 OTLK Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area. ... Synopsis ... Broad troughing will exist across the eastern US on Sunday with several smaller-scale troughs moving through a longer-wave trough. At the start of the forecast period, one shortwave trough will be moving across the Northeast and a secondary low-amplitude trough will approach the eastern US later in the day. As this happens, low-mid-level southwesterly flow will increase to around 40 knots, providing effective-layer shear sufficient for thunderstorm organization. Surface dewpoints will increase into the low 60Fs perhaps as far north as central/southern New York ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass should result in MLCAPE perhaps as high as 1500-2500 J/kg across the southern Mid-Atlantic, to perhaps 1000 J/kg across portions of New York. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the surface front during the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern with these storms, although an isolated tornado will also be possible. Strong consideration was given to increasing wind probabilities to 45% (Level 3/Enhanced) across the central/northern Mid-Atlantic region, but opted to defer any upgrade to later outlooks after collaboration with local offices. Additional bands/clusters of storms are likely to develop during the afternoon across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley into PA/NY. While instability will be lower across this area, deep-layer flow will be stronger. Linear bands and clusters will pose a risk for isolated severe/damaging wind gusts through the evening.
  13. yoda
    Morning AFD from LWX for Sunday DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions today, severe thunderstorms return Sunday. Quiescent wx returns today with mostly sunny skies and lower humidity. Temps will still be 5-8 degrees above average for highs (upper 80s to around 90), but it will feel cooler and less humid as dewpoints drop into upper 50s and low 60s. Sun features the next chance for severe wx. SPC has maintained a Level 2 out of 5 (Slight Risk) for the area, however they have increased the wind probs to 30%. Could see upgrade to Level 3 out of 5 (Enhanced Risk) depending on model trends over the next 24 hours. Stay tuned for the latest... In terms of the meteorology, a sw will rotate around the base of an UL trof Sun. Ahead of the wave, southerly flow will usher in anomalous moisture with PWs nearing 2" and dewpoints near 70F. The sw will bring height falls aloft near peak heating resulting in notable instability. The above will overlap with increasing wind shear. The combination of increasing instability, shear, and large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the shortwave and an approaching cold front will lead to the development of widespread thunderstorms during the afternoon, some of which could be severe. Model soundings indicate steep low level lapse rates (especially for the Mid-Atlantic) which will result in higher DCAPE values and therefore stronger wind gusts. There`s still a fair amount of spread in guidance with respect to the timing and exact placement of the storms, but as of now the threat looks to be greatest to the east of the Blue Ridge. Some guidance has discrete supercells ahead of the front, followed by linear segments which make sense given unidirectional shear. The main threats with storms will damaging winds, large hail, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. WPC has a Level 1 out of 5 (Marginal ERO) for the metros, but progressive nature and prevailing drought look to limit the overall flood threat. The system`s cold front will move through Sunday night, advecting cooler and drier air into the region, which will bring the threat for severe thunderstorms to an end.
  14. yoda
    Oh okay then SPC... @high risk @Kmlwx @wxmeddler @Eskimo Joe Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-6/Wed-Thu -- Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough is forecast to deepen over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intensifying 500 mb jet streak will develop across the central Plains and increase to 80-100 kt as it moves into the Mid-MS Valley Wednesday night, and spreads eastward across the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern/central Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. As this occurs, increasing southerly low-level flow will quickly transport rich Gulf moisture northward into the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley by Wednesday afternoon as the surface low moves across IA and a trailing cold front moves eastward in tandem with the low across portions of the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley. Strong to extreme instability is forecast across the strongly sheared warm sector. An all-hazards severe thunderstorm event appears likely. An intense southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening. This could support upscale growth into an MCS moving across portions of the Midwest Wednesday night, posing a risk for swaths of damaging winds. This system will spread east on Thursday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A continued risk for all severe hazards, and possible MCS with damaging winds, will persist as the mid/upper jet streak is forecast to remain quite strong as it overspreads a seasonally moist airmass. While some timing differences of aforementioned features is evident in various NWP guidance, overall medium range consensus and mean calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests a multi-day severe episode is likely as this system overspreads portions of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, though the 15 percent risk areas may shift in the coming days as details become better resolved, and higher probabilities are possible in subsequent outlooks. The southern extent of severe potential is more uncertain across parts of the Plains toward the TN Valley as these areas will remain further removed from stronger flow aloft. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2026
  15. yoda
    2/5/30 on morning day 2 SPC OTLk. 30 wind is from BR eastward to Eastern Shore Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area. ...Mid-Atlantic Region... An upper trough will be oriented over the Upper Great Lakes Sunday morning. A shortwave embedded within the large-scale troughing will pivot east across the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this main shortwave trough, most guidance suggests a lead impulse will overspread the Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the afternoon. Low to midlevel west/southwesterly flow will increase to around 30-40 kt in association with these features. This enhanced flow will aid in organized thunderstorms in multiple bands during the afternoon and evening. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be in place to the lee of the Blue Ridge across the NC/VA Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay vicinity into southeast PA/southern NJ. Northward extent of moisture return remains a bit uncertain, but at least low 60s F dewpoints should filter into much of PA and NY ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Strong heating will support a corridor of moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range across eastern VA/NC and vicinity. Instability is expected to be more muted with northward extent where boundary layer moisture will be somewhat less and midlevel lapse rates rather poor. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop within lee troughing near the Blue Ridge and spread east across the Chesapeake/DelMarVa/southeast PA/southern NJ vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern with these storms, though isolated hail or a tornado also will be possible. If current model trends continue, higher coverage probabilities/upgrade to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) could be needed in subsequent outlooks. For now, wind probabilities have been increased to 30 percent across the DelMarVa into southeast PA/southern NJ. Additional bands/clusters of storms are likely to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front from the Upper Ohio Valley into PA/NY. While instability will be lower across this area, deep-layer flow will be stronger. Linear bands and clusters will pose a risk for isolated severe/damaging wind gusts through the evening.
  16. yoda
    18z NAM soundings would seem to suggest potential for an isolated tornado threat Sunday into Sunday night... DCA 21z Sunday DCA 03z Monday
  17. yoda
    653pm M67 IAD
  18. yoda
    Numerous trees downed along rt 50
  19. yoda
    Incoming DC metro BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 648 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... The City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... Northwestern Arlington County in northern Virginia... The western City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... Central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The northeastern City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... North central Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 730 PM EDT. * At 647 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over South Riding, moving southeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Centreville, Reston, Annandale, South Riding, Herndon, Fairfax, Vienna, Falls Church, Broadlands, Brambleton, Mantua, Pimmit Hills, Dulles International Airport, Mclean, Ashburn, Burke, Oakton, Sterling, Chantilly, and Tysons Corner. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3882 7758 3897 7744 3899 7751 3903 7750 3893 7715 3872 7727 TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 293DEG 25KT 3891 7752 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
  20. yoda
    Rotation marker in the EZF severe warned storm
  21. yoda
    Is that your spotter report that just appeared?
  22. yoda
    601 NWUS51 KLWX 121554 LSRLWX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1152 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0823 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 SE Aspen Hill 39.08N 77.06W 06/11/2026 Montgomery MD Emergency Mngr *** 1 Fatal *** Tree fell onto a person along the Matthew Henson Trail resulting in a fatality. && Event Number LWX2606642
  23. yoda
    883 NWUS51 KLWX 121642 LSRLWX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1242 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0830 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NNW Marlton 38.77N 76.79W 06/11/2026 E70 mph Prince Georges MD Broadcast Media *** 1 Fatal *** A tree fell onto a person on North Marlton Avenue resulting in a fatality. A wind gust was estimated to be around 70 mph based on the report of 74 mph at Andrew Air Force Base about five miles to the southeast as well as analysis of the Terminal Doppler Radar from Andrews Air Force Base which showed about 70 mph 375 feet Above Ground Level. && Event Number LWX2606643
  24. yoda
    083 NWUS51 KLWX 121825 LSRLWX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 225 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0726 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 SW Woolsey 38.84N 77.66W 06/11/2026 Prince William VA Emergency Mngr *** 1 Inj *** Thunderstorm wind gust blew person in inflatable kayak out into Silver Lake. They were rescued in critical condition. && Event Number LWX2606644
  25. yoda
    By the way, at least 2 deaths and 1 critical injury due to yesterday's storms per LWX
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