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yoda

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  1. yoda
    NAM failure
  2. yoda
    Pouring rain here right now
  3. yoda
    Looks like its already going to be wrong looking down south
  4. yoda
    Isn't it retiring soon for the RRFS?
  5. yoda
    From SPC day 4 to 8 outlook this morning Days 5 and 6/ Thursday and Friday... A slight eastward shift of the mean trough position is forecast on Thursday with some model signal for an embedded short-wave trough to move through the Great Lakes. At the surface, there is some suggestion that a weak front or wind shift will move into the northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon with the trailing extension of that boundary stretching through the mid MS Valley into the southern High Plains. Ahead of that boundary, widespread 70+ F dewpoints are expected from New England into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas, leading to moderate to potentially strong instability. The greatest potential for a few severe storms appears to be across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon where the moderate instability will coincide with a belt of 30-40 kt mid-level flow. Some severe weather threat may also develop in the Ozark Plateau and AZ Thursday afternoon and evening. On Friday, the above-mentioned Great Lakes short-wave trough is expected to shear northeast across southern ON with 30-40 kt of mid-level flow prevailing over the Northeast. The surface pattern is somewhat disorganized with some semblance of a trough from southern New England through the Mid-Atlantic coastal region. Moderate to strong instability may again develop ahead of that feature, supporting the potential for some severe weather threat during the afternoon and early evening hours. However, the strongest vertical shear is forecast to remain to the north of the stronger instability, leading to uncertainty in the magnitude of the severe threat. ...Days 7 and 8/Saturday and Sunday... The various 00Z ensemble mean solutions indicate a slight eastward shift of an upper low near Hudson Bay with low-amplitude troughing and strengthening mid-level flow moving into the Northeast. Southerly low-level winds within the western periphery of a surface high positioned off the Atlantic Coast will maintain a moist and unstable air mass beneath the strengthening winds aloft. As such, some severe weather threat is expected to persist from the Mid-Atlantic into New England this period. Elsewhere, there is some model signal for a surface front to move into the Midwest, where some severe weather potential may exist.
  6. yoda
    Looks like @WxUSAF got a sneaky pop up shower
  7. yoda
    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday... A broader-scale trough is forecast over central Canada into the north-central U.S. with a series of subtle disturbances moving through the base of that feature. At the surface, a front is expected to move through the upper Great Lakes with the western extension of the boundary settling slowly south through the central High Plains. A severe weather threat may materialize from the mid MO Valley into the central High Plains along the front and in the post-frontal upslope, where an overlap of moderate instability and stronger vertical shear is expected to reside. Elsewhere, a more widespread area of moderate instability developing across southern AZ could support a locally greater risk of severe storms. The extent of the severe weather threat in both areas is currently too uncertain to delineate an area. ...Day 5/Wednesday... The broad, cyclonic flow regime will continue over the north-central CONUS with a belt of slightly enhanced mid-level winds extending from the northern Rockies through the northern and central Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, the previously mentioned front will continue through the Great Lakes with the boundary extending southwest through the mid MS Valley into the central or southern High Plains. Similar to Day 4/Tuesday, some severe weather appears possible along the boundary over the lower MO into mid MS Valleys, as well as within the post-frontal upslope across the central High Plains. The subtle nature of the forcing for ascent leads to uncertainty in severe storm coverage, so no area will be included. ...Days 6-8/Thursday through Saturday... The 00Z ensemble means are in reasonably good agreement in depicting the continuation of an upper high over the southwestern U.S. with lower-amplitude troughing over the Great Lakes into the Northeast. At the surface, there is considerable model spread in the location of relevant boundaries that might focus severe storms. That being said, much of the available AI guidance suggests an increasing severe weather threat in the Mid-Atlantic during this time frame. Model trends will continue to be monitored for the possible inclusion of an area in subsequent outlooks. ..Mead.. 08/01/2026
  8. yoda
    Apparently Sunday is a isolated threat?
  9. yoda
    Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 644 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 MDC003-005-510-290015- /O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-260729T0015Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Anne Arundel MD-Baltimore MD-Baltimore City MD- 644 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 ...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL ANNE ARUNDEL AND SOUTHEASTERN BALTIMORE COUNTIES AND BALTIMORE CITY... At 644 PM EDT, emergency management reports multiple roads closed due to flooding in Baltimore City. Between 2 and 3.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Emergency management reported. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Baltimore... Pikesville... Middle River... Riviera Beach... Sparrows Point... Back River... North Point State Park... Fort Smallwood State Park... Millers Island... Glen Burnie... Dundalk... Towson... Catonsville... Essex... Woodlawn... Parkville... Carney... Perry Hall... Lochearn... Pasadena... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. && LAT...LON 3914 7661 3925 7671 3929 7672 3941 7673 3940 7639 3924 7640 3918 7645 3918 7646 3921 7652 3917 7646 3914 7648 FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
  10. yoda
    For @CAPE and our Eastern Shore/DE crew Mesoscale Discussion 1790 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0527 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Maryland into Delaware Concerning...Tornado Watch 529... Valid 282227Z - 282330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 529 continues. SUMMARY...A locally higher tornado threat may materialize in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have matured ahead of an approaching MCS. These supercells are intensifying within a very moist low-level environment, where 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE is present, and where the DOX VAD shows a modestly sized/curved low-level hodograph and over 200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH. In addition to showing a modest increase in low-level rotation within the supercells, the absorption of these supercells into the MCS may promote conditionally favorable storm interactions which may briefly heighten the tornado threat. The best chance for a tornado will likely be within the next 2 hours. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 38387643 38987602 39267570 39317549 39197530 38907522 38607538 38437559 38247591 38387643 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
  11. yoda
    Looks like a fair bit of damage in Gaithersburg per LSRs
  12. yoda
    for @MN Transplant BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 617 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The District of Columbia... Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northwestern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... Arlington County in northern Virginia... The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... Northeastern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until 645 PM EDT. * At 617 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over American University, or near Howard University, moving southeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Arlington, Bethesda, Annandale, College Park, Greenbelt, Langley Park, Vienna, Falls Church, Coral Hills, Bladensburg, Pimmit Hills, Mclean, University of Maryland, Nationals Park, Fedex Field, Howard University, Gallaudet University, American Legion Bridge, Fort Totten, and Rosslyn.
  13. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 610 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northern Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... * Until 645 PM EDT. * At 610 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Odenton, or near Severn, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Severn, Riviera Beach, Glen Burnie, Severna Park, Odenton, Pasadena, Arnold, Lake Shore, Millersville, and South Gate around 615 PM EDT. Sillery Bay, Pinehurst, Fort Smallwood State Park, and Dobbins Island around 620 PM EDT. Gibson Island, Magothy River, and Bodkin Point around 625 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Herald Harbor, Belvedere Heights, Gambrills, Chelsea Beach, and Cape St. Claire.
  14. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 532 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 MDC015-025-282200- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-260728T2200Z/ Harford MD-Cecil MD- 532 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN HARFORD AND NORTHWESTERN CECIL COUNTIES... At 532 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes were located along a line extending from near Delta to Bel Air North, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. These dangerous storms will be near... Aberdeen, Havre De Grace, Bel Air South, Perryman, Richardsmere, Octoraro, Rock Springs, and Conowingo around 540 PM EDT. Aberdeen Proving Ground, Rising Sun, West Nottingham, Farmington, and Woodlawn around 545 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by these tornadic storms include Perryville, Cardiff, Churchville, Darlington, Carsins, Pylesville, Scarboro, Forest Hill, Bynum, and Port Deposit. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
  15. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 528 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Harford County in northern Maryland... Northwestern Cecil County in northeastern Maryland... * Until 600 PM EDT. * At 528 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing a tornado were located along a line extending from near Delta to Bel Air North, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * These dangerous storms will be near... Aberdeen, Bel Air South, Bel Air North, Octoraro, Rock Springs, and Conowingo around 535 PM EDT. Havre De Grace, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Perryman, and Richardsmere around 540 PM EDT. Rising Sun, West Nottingham, Farmington, and Woodlawn around 545 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by these tornadic storms include Perryville, Cardiff, Churchville, Darlington, Carsins, Pylesville, Scarboro, Forest Hill, Bynum, and Port Deposit.
  16. yoda
    Spotter reported golf ball sized hail in Clarke County at 418pm
  17. yoda
    He means like when there are 10 counties in the warning
  18. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 440 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 VAC107-282115- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0320.000000T0000Z-260728T2115Z/ Loudoun VA- 440 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN LOUDOUN COUNTY... At 440 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Boonsboro to near Harpers Ferry to near Bluemont, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Purcellville, Round Hill, Bluemont, Lovettsville, Hamilton, Hillsboro, Paeonian Springs, Waterford, Neersville, Philomont, Lincoln, Hughesville, and Taylorstown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3930 7762 3930 7757 3926 7753 3904 7767 3908 7786 3924 7777 3926 7777 3926 7776 3929 7775 3932 7772 3932 7767 TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 270DEG 18KT 3945 7764 3929 7771 3919 7784 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
  19. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 436 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Carroll County in north central Maryland... Howard County in central Maryland... Montgomery County in central Maryland... Frederick County in north central Maryland... Western Baltimore County in northern Maryland... Northern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 436 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Littlestown to Harry Grove Stadium to near Purcellville, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Columbia, Germantown, Frederick, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Leesburg, Olney, Pikesville, Cockeysville, Westminster, Damascus, Lansdowne, Thurmont, Poolesville, Emmitsburg, Harry Grove Stadium, Historic Ellicott City, Ellicott City, Aspen Hill, and Potomac. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for northern, central and north central Maryland. && LAT...LON 3972 7658 3922 7677 3903 7724 3906 7732 3913 7783 3932 7772 3933 7768 3948 7762 3972 7730 TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 290DEG 30KT 3969 7710 3940 7740 3917 7770 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
  20. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 429 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Warren County in northwestern Virginia... Northeastern Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia... West central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... * Until 500 PM EDT. * At 429 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Front Royal, moving southeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Hume around 435 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Karo, Glen Echo, Huntly, Arco, Riverton, Hackleys Crossroads, Flint Hill, Cresthill, Chester Gap, and Orlean. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
  21. yoda
    Afternoon AFD from LWX mentioned it DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening, along with a local flash flood risk. MCV over central PA and cold front approaching from NW PA (and general height falls within the upper trough) will serve as forcing to continue the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Shear will be sufficient for supercells, but cluster and bowing segments may eventually dominate, presenting a risk of damaging winds. Discrete storms will have potential for hail as well. A tornado threat may evolve later this afternoon/early evening as a low level jet pivots into the area and the trough takes on a negative tilt. The axis of storms will likely be closer to the I-95 corridor by this time, where winds could also be backed a little more closer to the bay. At the moment, this threat appears a little more isolated and uncertain, but discussion was had with SPC that some areas could be upgraded to a Tornado Watch should discrete storm modes dominate. The forcing features listed above could also lead to some upscale growth or training as the storms get closer to the bay. This might lead to a few instances of flash flooding, especially from Baltimore to the northeast, as precipitable water values approach 2 inches. A Flood Watch remains in effect for this area. Thunderstorms will likely clear off to the east by 10 PM, although there may be a few lingering showers, especially along the Alleghenies.
  22. yoda
    50/10 tor probs
  23. yoda
  24. yoda
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 529 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 420 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Eastern Maryland Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Northeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 420 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms tracking eastward across southeast Pennsylvania and northern Virginia will move through the watch area this afternoon. Damaging winds remain the primary threat. However, supercell storms may result in a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles south of Patuxent River MD to 25 miles north northeast of Philadelphia PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
  25. yoda
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch REPLACED with Tornado Watch for BR east
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