yoda

LWX doesn't seem to be buying it

Wednesday afternoon up in the air per morning AFD from LWX A strong area of low pressure moves through the Northeast on Wednesday, with a cold front extending down the East Coast that will bring widespread rain and thunderstorm chances to the Mid-Atlantic in the afternoon/evening. While the center low will be well north of us, the timing of the front aligning with the diurnal cycle and the high temperatures seen at the start of the week could still contribute towards some thunderstorm development in the region. Potential severity at this time still ranges widely--NCAR`s AI NWP Convective Hazards Forecast currently has our region outlined in its 45%-60% probability for severe weather to occur, while CSU`s medium- range probabilities ranks the severe threat much lower. Regardless, this front will likely result in widespread showers at a minimum as well as a sharp drop in temperatures seen later in the week. Highs on Thursday will range in the upper 60s and low 70s, a marked shift from the mid-90s expected earlier in the week. Lingering rain showers may still be moving out of the area by Thursday morning, while a meandering front to the south could bring a few additional rain showers on Friday.

MRGL up out to the NW of the i95 corridor

And then in a few months when its 90 degrees at 10am we will be complaining for this type of weather

Looks like Wednesday, maybe Thursday for a chance of some severe? Nothing huge of course... just the risk for it

I'm still mourning the loss of the DGEX... a real OG

So now what do we say when the RRFS crushes us with wind?

Does this include the 3k NAM or just the parent NAM?

Getting lucky i guess... Light rain here at work

Wizards have the #1 pick in the draft

Good call in a sense... MRGL risk added for parts of the area

Blowing dust? BLOWING DUST ADVISORY NWS CHICAGO IL 259 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026 ILZ019>021-023-032-033-039-107-108-INZ001-002-010-011-019-042300- /O.NEW.KLOT.DU.Y.0001.260504T1600Z-260504T2300Z/ 1100 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026 La Salle IL-Kendall IL-Grundy IL-Kankakee IL-Livingston IL-Iroquois IL-Ford IL-Southern Will IL-Eastern Will IL-Lake IN-Porter IN-Newton IN-Jasper IN-Benton IN- ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Visibility as low as a quarter mile in blowing dust, particularly in open agricultural areas. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central, and northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana. * WHEN...From 11 AM CDT this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced visibility. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility could vary rapidly over short distances, slow down and exercise caution driving in open areas this afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Persons with respiratory problems should make preparations to stay indoors until the storm passes. Be ready for a sudden drop in visibility to near zero. If you encounter blowing dust or blowing sand on the roadway or see it approaching, pull off the road as far as possible and put your vehicle in park. Turn the lights all the way off and keep foot off the brake pedal. Remember, 'Pull Aside, Stay Alive'.

Didn't realize the forecasted high temperature for Tuesday is now the mid 80s

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 MDZ003>006-507-VAZ028>031-036>040-050-051-501-505-WVZ051>053-030015- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0004.260503T0600Z-260503T1300Z/ Washington-Frederick-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford- Frederick-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison- Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 to 36 degrees will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northern Maryland, central, northern, and northwest Virginia, and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 MDZ502-VAZ025>027-507-508-WVZ050-055-502-504-030015- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0005.260503T0600Z-260503T1300Z/ Central and Eastern Allegany-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Eastern Mineral- 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 degrees expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Central and Eastern Allegany County. In Virginia, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Shenandoah, Augusta, and Rockingham Counties. In West Virginia, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Hampshire, and Hardy Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 MDZ501-509-510-VAZ503-504-WVZ501-503-505-506-030015- /O.UPG.KLWX.FZ.A.0004.260503T0600Z-260503T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0005.260503T0600Z-260503T1300Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Western Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 degrees expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Eastern Garrett, Extreme Western Allegany, and Western Garrett Counties. In Virginia, Eastern Highland and Western Highland Counties. In West Virginia, Eastern Pendleton, Western Grant, Western Mineral, and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

Interesting.... morning day 2 from SPC ..Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic... Given the spread among the latest model output concerning the initial surface frontal low migrating through the Ohio Valley, and the developing surface troughing/warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge, substantial uncertainty remains concerning the convective potential for this period. Remnant convective cloud cover and rain overspreading the region early in the day may also impede destabilization. However, with at least weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization, strengthening wind fields and forcing for ascent associated with an approaching mid-level jet could become conducive to organized severe storm development. This may initiate west of the Allegheny Mountains, and include potential for evolving supercell structures, before developing to the east of the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening.

Hmmmm... afternoon AFD from LWX about Wednesday. Granted we will likely fail... but only chance for a while The better chance for showers and some thunderstorms would be on Wednesday as a brunt of the upper trough moves toward the Eastern Seaboard. A remnant MCV will likely be wrapped up in this larger scale trough, the timing and amplitude of which will dictate the extent of any strong to severe weather in the Mid- Atlantic. As is typical with these features, their finer scale details (as well as leftover upstream convective debris) cast uncertainty into the extent of heating/instability. Conditionally speaking, increasing winds throughout the lower/mid troposphere on Wednesday as this wave approaches. Large scale ascent also increases. The most likely area for appreciable instability to develop would be southwest of a line from roughly Elkins WV to Ocean City MD. This area is closer to the source of low-level moisture return, and may see some better heating southeast of more abundant clouds and in the vicinity of a developing warm frontal feature. Resultant thunderstorm activity may tend to track along the warm front later in the day, again contingent upon the extent of available instability. Some risk for gusty to damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two may develop, with an even more conditional risk of hail should stronger more discrete cells develop.

Surprised that its been 15 years since the April 27 2011 event... popped up on my FB memories

Cell east of FDK looks interesting in Maryland

Winner?

A few rumbles and some rain here

I hope not

Bye Caps

Would be a shame if the Capitals lost today in regulation to the Penguins and the Flyers beat the Jets