yoda

12z NAM h5 45

Lulz https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd 20:1 SLRs in banding Saturday night with hours of 1"+ snow rates

I know someone posted the disco earlier... but the images are tasty

Oh okay (only through 7am Sunday... so more snow to come after!)

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 148 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 MDZ021>023-VAZ048-060>062-064-068-069-075-509>513-515-517-519-521- 221500- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.260124T1800Z-260126T1800Z/ Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland- Goochland-Caroline-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Western Louisa- Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)- Western King William-Western King and Queen-Western Essex- 148 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Confidence is increasing in widespread snow, sleet, and freezing rain. This may result in major impacts in infrastructure and transportation. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Maryland and central, east central, and north central Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. The combination of significant snow and ice accumulation on power lines and tree limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting power outages.

Watches up from Wakefield URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 148 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 MDZ021>023-VAZ048-060>062-064-068-069-075-509>513-515-517-519-521- 221500- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.260124T1800Z-260126T1800Z/ Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland- Goochland-Caroline-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Western Louisa- Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)- Western King William-Western King and Queen-Western Essex- 148 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Confidence is increasing in widespread snow, sleet, and freezing rain. This may result in major impacts in infrastructure and transportation. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Maryland and central, east central, and north central Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. The combination of significant snow and ice accumulation on power lines and tree limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting power outages.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 148 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 MDZ024-025-NCZ012-013-030-VAZ065>067-076>090-092-093-099-514-516-518- 520-522-523-221500- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.260124T1800Z-260126T1800Z/ Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-Northampton-Hertford-Bertie- Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster- Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George (including Hopewell and Petersburg)-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews- Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight- Accomack-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Eastern Henrico-Eastern King William-Eastern King and Queen-Eastern Essex- York- 148 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Confidence is increasing in widespread snow, sleet, and freezing rain. This may result in major impacts in infrastructure and transportation. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Maryland, northeast North Carolina, and central, east central, eastern, south central, and southeast Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. The combination of significant snow and ice accumulation on power lines and tree limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting power outages.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 148 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 NCZ014-031-VAZ095>098-100-524-525-221500- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.260124T1800Z-260126T1800Z/ Gates-Chowan-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach- Northampton-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson- 148 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Confidence is increasing in widespread snow, sleet, and freezing rain. This may result in moderate to major impacts in infrastructure and transportation. * WHERE...Portions of northeast North Carolina and eastern and southeast Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, may become slick and hazardous. Ice accumulation on power lines and tree limbs may result in power outages.

930pm evening AFD update snippet One thing to note regarding this evening`s guidance is that there has been a northern and western push which favors wintry mix across southern MD and central VA. The uncertainty remains in how far north this mix line evolves given the track of system whether it`s further to west or south of the region. The ECMWF, ICON, GFS, GEM, GEFS, and EPS illustrate this in different variations with a the highest probabilities of ice (i.e., sleet/some freezing rain) in the aformentioned areas above. Each of these solutions do have a variation of sleet mixing with snow and making it as far north as the I-95 corridor as the system kicks out Sunday afternoon. The probability of 0.01" of ice remains between 10 to 20 percent along I-66/US-50 and into I-95 north and east of DC. These values jump up to 25 to 35 percent across southern MD and central VA where slightly warmer air aloft/dry slotting may win out. The probabilities for significant/impactful snow have not changed a whole lot with the entire area seeing 65 to 85 percent probs of 6 to 8 inches snow. These probabilities drop down to 35 to 60 percent for a foot of snow, especially in the climo favored zones along and west of I-95 as well as down into northern Shenandoah Valley/Allegheny Mountains. This signal has trended upward in the last few runs, especially on the ECMWF/ECS as well as GEPS compared to the GEFS which focus this axis a bit further south. Of course these numbers will go up or down based upon any mixing that may occur. Snow to liquid ratios look to start around 15:1 with this system for the entirety of the area, while then trending down toward 10:1 and perhaps slightly lower Sunday morning into the afternoon as some mixing occurs. The pending dry slot could also play into this as well. Snow should be fluffy in nature, particularly within the initial warm advection conveyor belt. Expect some crustiness of this snowpack given any mixing that may occur as the system kicks out during the second half of Sunday. Now is the time for the public to make preparations for the storm. This includes getting any necessary groceries or medicines that you may not be able to access this weekend into early next week due to any potential closure. Have an emergency kit in the car including extra batteries, a flashlight, and blanket just in case you get stranded. Make sure to refuel your car before the storm hits. Check on elederly friends/neighbors and don`t forget about your pets during this prolonged cold period.

I'm gathering this was posted already... but LWX says SLRs to start at 15:1 for the entire region in their AFD

Before

Let's say 85% of that is snow at DCA... woof

00z CMC total qpf near DCA was 2" lol

ITS OVER 9000!!!!

Composite vs 1km Above Ground Level radars

You guys didnt know that Zulu time didnt stop at 23:59? It goes to 100z!

Good, never heard of them, okay (the bands)

hr 84

SN at DCA around 03z Sunday

78 18z NAM

72 18z NAM

60 18z NAM

Okay 13z NBM... I see you

RNK went ahead and issued... thats about 60 hours for them URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1244 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059- WVZ042>044-507-508-220400- /O.NEW.KRNK.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T1800Z/ Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes- Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery- Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt- Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania- Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers- Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- Including the cities of Danbury, Pulaski, Marion, Wytheville, Hot Springs, Hinton, Covington, Blacksburg, Rainelle, Duo, Quinwood, Floyd, Amherst, New Castle, Lexington, Union, Lewisburg, Alderson, Whitetop, Stuart, Roanoke, Yadkinville, Yanceyville, Appomattox, Volney, Troutdale, Bluefield, Fincastle, Sparta, Rocky Mount, Hix, Independence, Salem, Buena Vista, Danville, Clifton Forge, Eden, Galax, Lynchburg, Boone, Radford, Flat Top, Bedford, Tazewell, Dobson, Martinsville, Keysville, Bland, Wilkesboro, South Boston, West Jefferson, White Sulphur Springs, and Pearisburg 1244 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 8 and 14 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest North Carolina, central, south central, southwest, and west central Virginia, and southeast West Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.