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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Afternoon AFD from LWX mentioned it DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening, along with a local flash flood risk. MCV over central PA and cold front approaching from NW PA (and general height falls within the upper trough) will serve as forcing to continue the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Shear will be sufficient for supercells, but cluster and bowing segments may eventually dominate, presenting a risk of damaging winds. Discrete storms will have potential for hail as well. A tornado threat may evolve later this afternoon/early evening as a low level jet pivots into the area and the trough takes on a negative tilt. The axis of storms will likely be closer to the I-95 corridor by this time, where winds could also be backed a little more closer to the bay. At the moment, this threat appears a little more isolated and uncertain, but discussion was had with SPC that some areas could be upgraded to a Tornado Watch should discrete storm modes dominate. The forcing features listed above could also lead to some upscale growth or training as the storms get closer to the bay. This might lead to a few instances of flash flooding, especially from Baltimore to the northeast, as precipitable water values approach 2 inches. A Flood Watch remains in effect for this area. Thunderstorms will likely clear off to the east by 10 PM, although there may be a few lingering showers, especially along the Alleghenies.
  2. yoda
    50/10 tor probs
  3. yoda
  4. yoda
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 529 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 420 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Eastern Maryland Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Northeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 420 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms tracking eastward across southeast Pennsylvania and northern Virginia will move through the watch area this afternoon. Damaging winds remain the primary threat. However, supercell storms may result in a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles south of Patuxent River MD to 25 miles north northeast of Philadelphia PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
  5. yoda
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch REPLACED with Tornado Watch for BR east
  6. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 416 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... West central Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 500 PM EDT. * At 416 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Shepherdstown, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. * Locations impacted include... Shepherdstown, Brunswick, Ranson, Shenandoah Junction, Rosemont, Rohrersville, Burkittsville, Gapland, Brownsville, Antietam, Arnoldtown, Moler Crossroads, Knoxville, Petersville, Pleasantville, and Bakerton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! && LAT...LON 3935 7790 3942 7787 3945 7760 3932 7761 TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 266DEG 15KT 3938 7780 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$
  7. yoda
    90/71 at DCA ar 3pm... as @pazzo83 mentioned in the obs thread, thats warmer than forecast (looks like mid 80s was forecast)
  8. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 310 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Highland County in western Virginia... * Until 345 PM EDT. * At 310 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Burnsville, or 12 miles southwest of Monterey, moving southeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Highland County, including the following locations... Williamsville and Bolar. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3831 7972 3820 7949 3819 7949 3818 7952 3820 7957 3822 7971 3825 7977 TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 315DEG 25KT 3825 7970 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN
  9. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 302 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 VAC015-091-282000- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0315.000000T0000Z-260728T2000Z/ Augusta VA-Highland VA- 302 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN AUGUSTA AND SOUTHERN HIGHLAND COUNTIES... At 302 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles north of Burnsville, or 9 miles southwest of Monterey, moving southeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Craigsville, Augusta Springs, Deerfield, Williamsville, Clover Creek, Mustoe, Vanderpool, Bolar, Mill Gap, and Liberty. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3831 7981 3833 7977 3836 7976 3836 7973 3838 7973 3842 7970 3817 7922 3798 7930 3809 7949 3817 7944 3817 7948 3815 7953 3818 7951 3820 7957 3822 7971 3827 7980 3828 7979 TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 308DEG 29KT 3830 7968 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
  10. yoda
    Im gathering we will get "our" MCD soon as another one was just issued by SPC... but for SW VA into C NC https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1781.html
  11. yoda
    2% tor was pushed back into the i81 corridor on 1630z OTLK.
  12. yoda
    Probably... but to me thats "good news" for our severe prospects IMO. Granted we could still whiff, but 80% chance of a watch box to our north suggests to me that we are definitely in the game this afternoon for severe
  13. yoda
    14z HRRR smacks DC metro and south
  14. yoda
    I can see the sun breaking out through the clouds at times here
  15. yoda
    30 wind nudged NEward on 1300z OTLK from SPC... includes i95 corridor and DC metro and Baltimore metro
  16. yoda
    It looks like its leaving a gap in the middle
  17. yoda
    I see sun and some blue sky leaving work
  18. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 122 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026 ILC091-INC089-271930- /O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0205.000000T0000Z-260727T1930Z/ Kankakee IL-Lake IN- 122 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN KANKAKEE AND LAKE COUNTIES... At 122 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near St. John, or near Cedar Lake, moving southeast at 40 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR CROWN POINT, WINFIELD, LOWELL, AND SCHNEIDER. HAZARD...100 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Expect considerable damage to homes and businesses. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Merrillville, Schererville, Hobart, Crown Point, Cedar Lake, Lowell, Dyer, St. John, Lakes of the Four Seasons, Winfield, Lake Dalecarlia, Grant Park, Shelby, and Schneider. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 4124 8722 4122 8729 4119 8732 4118 8737 4116 8739 4118 8745 4117 8746 4116 8762 4130 8765 4130 8753 4148 8752 4147 8722 TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 304DEG 35KT 4140 8755 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...100 MPH
  19. yoda
    @weatherwiz Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 122 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026 ILC091-INC089-271930- /O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0205.000000T0000Z-260727T1930Z/ Kankakee IL-Lake IN- 122 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN KANKAKEE AND LAKE COUNTIES... At 122 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near St. John, or near Cedar Lake, moving southeast at 40 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR CROWN POINT, WINFIELD, LOWELL, AND SCHNEIDER. HAZARD...100 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Expect considerable damage to homes and businesses. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Merrillville, Schererville, Hobart, Crown Point, Cedar Lake, Lowell, Dyer, St. John, Lakes of the Four Seasons, Winfield, Lake Dalecarlia, Grant Park, Shelby, and Schneider. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 4124 8722 4122 8729 4119 8732 4118 8737 4116 8739 4118 8745 4117 8746 4116 8762 4130 8765 4130 8753 4148 8752 4147 8722 TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 304DEG 35KT 4140 8755 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...100 MPH
  20. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 122 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026 ILC091-INC089-271930- /O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0205.000000T0000Z-260727T1930Z/ Kankakee IL-Lake IN- 122 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN KANKAKEE AND LAKE COUNTIES... At 122 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near St. John, or near Cedar Lake, moving southeast at 40 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR CROWN POINT, WINFIELD, LOWELL, AND SCHNEIDER. HAZARD...100 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Expect considerable damage to homes and businesses. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Merrillville, Schererville, Hobart, Crown Point, Cedar Lake, Lowell, Dyer, St. John, Lakes of the Four Seasons, Winfield, Lake Dalecarlia, Grant Park, Shelby, and Schneider. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 4124 8722 4122 8729 4119 8732 4118 8737 4116 8739 4118 8745 4117 8746 4116 8762 4130 8765 4130 8753 4148 8752 4147 8722 TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 304DEG 35KT 4140 8755 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...100 MPH
  21. yoda
    Damage videos coming out of SE WI/NE IL look really bad
  22. yoda
    There were quite a lot of hail cores and "large hail" last night... I saw numerous statements and warnings for ping pong to baseball sized hail
  23. yoda
    Morning day 3 discussion from SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging winds appear possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough initially over the lower Great Lakes Tuesday morning is forecast to evolve into a closed low over the Mid-Atlantic. Within the base of that feature, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will spread from the OH Valley into VA and NC by afternoon. At the surface, an area of low pressure over southwest ON Tuesday morning is expected to reform in the Delmarva by afternoon with a lee trough extending southwest along the Piedmont. Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southeast through the central and southern Appalachians, the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. ...Mid-Atlantic into Southern Appalachians... Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the short-wave trough. Various 00Z model data indicate deep convection lingering into afternoon from the central Appalachians into the Delmarva and points north, leading to uncertainty in the degree of air mass destabilization in those areas. Where stronger heating can occur, the presence of a moist air mass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon within a kinematic environment featuring anywhere from 30 to 45 kt of deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon preferentially along the cold front and lee trough where sufficient destabilization has occurred. Organized storm modes appear possible, including supercells and bowing structures, with the primary hazards being damaging wind gusts. Some tornado threat could materialize Tuesday afternoon in the Delmarva near the surface low. That threat is conditional on sufficient air mass destabilization and the presence of a supercell mode.
  24. yoda
    https://partnerservices.nws.noaa.gov/products/cache/205-2026/PNSLWX/c88b4b76421e8f7e48bd910a1aa7a19e Didnt see this posted yet
  25. yoda
    Morning AFD from LWX mentions "ridge rollers" KEY MESSAGE 2...Returning to a summer-like pattern next week. Coming off of the weekend, an upper-level trough begins to dig into the northeastern U.S. This will usher in the potential for organized convection early to mid week. In spite of multiple frontal passages during the period, next week could carry a return to summer-like conditions with heat indices in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. The key players will be a longstanding upper ridge across the southwestern U.S. into the southern/central Great Plains, a deep upper low near Hudson Bay, and longwave trough over the eastern U.S. While ensemble solutions do not show a more formidable shortwave tracking across the area, the setup certainly lends itself to a more active pattern. A series of "ridge rollers" are likely to cross the northern tier of the country before crossing the Great Lakes and northeastern states. At this juncture, the machine-learning algorithms favor an uptick in convection on Monday into Tuesday. This would present the most likely opportunity for any severe thunderstorms. A progressive pattern aloft will bring a cold front through the region on Tuesday evening/night, with a secondary boundary on its heels. While temperatures remain seasonable in this mid/late week pattern shift, dew points slowly come down to finish out the month of July.
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