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Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026 Satellite images indicate that Rachel is struggling to maintain deep convection, with only limited and shallow convection remaining near the center of circulation. A scatterometer pass received shortly after the previous advisory indicated peak winds of around 43 kt. Satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 31 to 44 kt, while the TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate is T2.5/35 kt. Given the scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. The storm is moving northeastward at an estimated 055/4 kt. A deepening mid-to upper-level trough moving into the eastern Pacific toward the western United States is expected to steer Rachel northeastward to north-northeastward with an increasing forward speed throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move inland over northern Baja California late Saturday or early Sunday before continuing northeastward into the southwestern United States on Sunday. There has been a northward shift in the latest track guidance, with the global and hurricane regional models now bringing the center near the U.S./Mexico border or into extreme southern California. The latest NHC track forecast has been nudged northward and lies between the global and regional hurricane models to the left, and the HCCA and GDMI slightly to the right. Given this track forecast, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of northern Baja California and southern California. There will be a sharp gradient in the wind field, with the strongest winds anticipated to remain primarily in the eastern and southern semicircles of the circulation. Rachel remains embedded within a very dry air mass, with mid-level relative humidity values in the lower 30 percent range. Sea surface temperatures of around 24-25C will also limit convective organization. However, interaction with the aforementioned deepening trough is expected to increase mid-level moisture and improve upper-level divergence, allowing Rachel to produce intermittent bursts of deep convection and maintain tropical cyclone status. Furthermore, there are anomalously warm waters just offshore of northern Baja California for this time of year, running roughly 6-7C above normal. There has been a notable upward trend in the intensity guidance from the global and regional models this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. As the system approaches the coast, increasing vertical wind shear is expected to displace the remaining convection downshear toward the northeastern portion of the circulation. Rachel is forecast to remain a strong tropical storm as it makes landfall. Once inland, rapid weakening is expected, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical over the southwestern United States. The latest NHC intensity forecast lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope, reflecting the complex interactions between Rachel and the approaching trough, as well as the inherent uncertainty in how models handle these processes. Key Messages: 1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of the northern Baja California Peninsula and southern California at tropical storm strength Saturday night, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect from San Jose de Las Palomas, Mexico northward into southern California to the San Diego/Orange County Line. 2. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are expected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, Saturday night and Sunday. 3. Rachel and the moisture associated with the system will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential of flash and urban flooding. 4. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as moderate to isolated major coastal flooding, through early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 22.8N 124.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 23.4N 123.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 25.1N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 28.5N 118.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 33.3N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0000Z 38.1N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 124.6W ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 820 MI...1325 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southern California coast from the U.S/Mexico Border northward to the San Diego/Orange County Line. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Baja California, from San Jose de Las Palomas northward to the U.S./Mexico Border and, the east coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to Puerto Penasco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern California coast from the U.S/Mexico Border northward to the San Diego/Orange County Line * West coast of Baja California, from San Jose de Las Palomas northward to the U.S./Mexico Border * East coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to Puerto Penasco A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in northern Baja California, northern Gulf of California, and Southern California should continue to monitor the progress of Rachel.

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating Isaias measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 120 kt within the eastern eyewall a few hours ago, prompting an upgrade of the hurricane to major hurricane status with estimated surface winds of 105 kt. Based on the last several dropsondes released in the eye, the central pressure appears to have leveled off around 959 mb. On the last pass through the eastern eyewall, just about a half hour ago, the plane measured a flight-level wind of 111 kt, suggesting that the peak winds may have also leveled off. The eye itself has become cloud filled in visible satellite imagery, but it is now moving into range of several WSR-88D radars along the northern Gulf coast. Strong deep-layer shear has definitely increased as forecast, with various analyses now showing 30-40 kt out of the southwest. However, the shear vector is nearly aligned with the storm's motion, which limits its adverse effects, and upper-level divergence is also increasing over the hurricane. This setup has likely allowed the hurricane to intensify this morning, and the hurricane regional models (HAFS-A, HAFS-B, and HWRF), as well as the statistical-dynamical models (SHIPS and LGEM), all suggest that Isaias could maintain major hurricane intensity up until its landfall this evening. Therefore, the NHC official forecast depicts Isaias with 100-kt winds just offshore the western Florida Panhandle this evening. Weakening will occur after landfall, but sustained hurricane-force winds will likely occur near and along Isaias's track up to 100 miles inland from the coast into southern Alabama, and gusts to hurricane force could extend even farther north into central Alabama. Isaias is likely to lose its tropical characteristics by 36 hours when it is over northern Alabama. Aircraft fixes indicate that Isaias has drifted a bit east of the previous forecast track. NHC's track forecast leans on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, closest to the latest HCCA and GDMI guidance, and implies a potential landfall along the extreme western Florida Panhandle coast this evening. After moving inland, the center of Isaias is expected to continue northward through Alabama, before turning northeastward over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys (as a post-tropical remnant low) on Sunday. Now that the eye has become visible in WSR-88D coastal radars, hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued beginning at 11 AM CDT (1600 UTC). Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida. Residents under evacuation orders should leave immediately and follow advice from local officials. 2. Extremely dangerous and damaging hurricane force-winds are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should have a safe room to ride out the storm and prepare for long-duration power outages. 3. Damaging wind gusts are likely over a large portion of the southeastern United States from western and northern Georgia westward over much of central and northern Alabama, southern middle Tennessee, and Mississippi, especially in areas of higher terrain. Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid driving high-profile vehicles, prepare for power outages, and be aware of the potential for falling trees. 4. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast through the weekend. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and significant river flooding, are possible. 5. The tornado potential will increase this afternoon and continue through tonight. The greatest risk will be east of the center, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. This risk will continue spreading north-northeast across parts of the Southeast on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 27.7N 87.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 29.7N 86.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 32.1N 87.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0000Z 34.2N 87.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 11/1200Z 36.5N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 12/0000Z 39.1N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...CENTER OF ISAIAS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST THIS EVENING... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DEVASTATING WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA COASTS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 87.3W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

18z NAM suggest 1-3 inches region wide on Sunday

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 The eye of Isaias has become apparent on visible and infrared satellite imagery. Interestingly, this is the first eye noted on satellite pictures in the Atlantic basin during the 2026 Hurricane Season. The cloud tops have mostly warmed in the system, but the latest subjective Dvorak classification value from TAFB has increased to T4.5 or 77 kt. NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations do not indicate a drop in central pressure so far and the peak 700-mb flight-level winds have not increased. However, Tail Doppler Radar wind velocities from the aircraft measured just above the surface support increasing the intensity to 85 kt for this advisory. Satellite and aircraft center fixes indicate that the hurricane appears to have made its expected turn toward the northeast and the initial motion is now 050/10 kt. Isaias is expected to turn northward tomorrow and move between a mid-level ridge extending westward from the Bahamas to the Florida peninsula and a trough near the northwest Gulf Coast. On the forecast track, the center will move inland along the northern Gulf coast within the next 36 hours, and then pass over portions of the southeastern U.S. during the next few days. The official forecast is nudged slightly eastward and follows the latest corrected consensus model guidance. The intensity forecast remains somewhat problematic. The hurricane will be passing over Gulf waters of high oceanic heat content during the next day or so. In fact, the projected track of Isais shows it passing near a warm eddy overnight. However, the vertical wind shear, which is already significant, is expected to increase substantially during the next 36 hours. The current thinking is that the shear will not offset the conducive oceanic conditions until 12-24 hours, so further strengthening is anticipated overnight. The official intensity forecast is at the high end of the model guidance, but in consideration of the expected stronger wind shear in 24-36 hours, some decrease in intensity is indicated as Isaias approaches the coast. Regardless, Isaias is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall, and strong gusty winds are expected well inland after the center crosses the coast. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida. Residents in the warning area should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so. 2. Damaging hurricane force-winds are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages. 3. Damaging wind gusts are possible over much of central and northern Alabama, extreme eastern Mississippi, and portions of western and northern Georgia, especially in areas of higher terrain. Additional Tropical Storm and High Wind Watches and Warnings may be required for portions of that area later tonight. Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid driving high-profile vehicles, and prepare for power outages. 4. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast Friday into the weekend. Considerable flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding, will be possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 24.4N 89.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 25.7N 88.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 28.2N 87.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 31.0N 87.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/1800Z 33.2N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 11/0600Z 35.0N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/1800Z 37.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ISAIAS NOW HAS 100 MPH WINDS... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 89.3W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES

Complain?

BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 ...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 89.8W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES

Does anyone know who has more Stanley Cups or playoff victories? Asking for a friend And yes, tell the friend the Capitals won tonight

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026 Satellite and aircraft data show that Isaias continues to strengthen. GOES-19 imagery indicates that a central dense overcast has formed, and the system has become more symmetric than this morning. The peak NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft 700-mb winds were 61 kt, with the pressure dropping to 994 mb. The initial intensity is set to 55 kt as a reflection of this data. Isaias is basically on track, moving east-northeast at 7 kt. There is no change to the synoptic reasoning as a deepening trough along the northwestern Gulf Coast and a strengthening Atlantic subtropical ridge should cause the system to move faster to the northeast tomorrow and northward on Friday. As long as the cyclone remains intact, it makes physical sense that the system will move on the faster and eastward side of the guidance due to the stronger shear Isaias should encounter near landfall. Thus, the new forecast is adjusted slightly to the east, closer to the AI-based and corrected-consensus models. NOAA radar data (P3-TDR) show that the system is experiencing some southwesterly shear, with tilt analyses displaying the mid-level circulation displaced 5-10 n mi to the northeast of the low-level center. This structure seems sufficient for further intensification given a continuation of similar low or moderate shear and very warm SSTs in a very humid environment. Models are fairly consistent about the shear increasing on Friday, but almost all guidance still shows a category 1 or 2 hurricane at landfall. While the regional hurricane models have generally come down on the peak intensity this cycle, it is unknown whether this is the start of a real trend, and we would prefer to see more than one guidance cycle before making any adjustments. The new forecast is close to the previous one, near the high side of the model suite. Key Messages: 1. Isaias is expected to strengthen and be a strong hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, and a Storm Surge Watch is in effect from The Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, Florida. Residents in the watch area should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 2. The risk of damaging hurricane-force winds is increasing over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida. Residents in these areas should prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages. 3. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. 4. Isaias could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portion of the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 22.7N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 23.1N 91.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 24.1N 90.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 25.8N 88.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 28.1N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 31.0N 87.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/1800Z 34.0N 87.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/1800Z 37.5N 84.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026 ...ISAIAS QUICKLY INTENSIFYING, FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 92.9W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line to west of Bay St. Louis * East of Indian Pass to Aucilla River

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026 Isaias has gotten better organized during the past several hours with a large area of deep convection near and northeast of the center. Recent Air Force Hurricane Hunter data indicate that the center is re-forming a bit to the north of the previous advisory nearer to the mid-level center, with an estimated pressure of 1000 mb derived from dropsonde data. The initial wind speed is set to 40 kt in consideration of increase in satellite organization and the 4-mb dropsonde pressure fall, close to the UW-CIMSS SATCON values and many of the other objective estimates. The storm is moving east-northeast at 7 kt. The motion should gradually bend northward and increase during the next few days as a trough along the northwestern Gulf coast amplifies and the subtropical ridge east of Florida builds westward. This pattern should cause a fast-moving Isaias to approach the northern Gulf coast by Friday afternoon. Model guidance continues to be somewhat split, with the AI-based models generally on the right side of the model envelope, and the physics based models on the left side. The new NHC forecast is nudged a bit eastward, but isn't as far east as the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) or Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). It is worth noting that many of the stronger solutions tend to be on the eastern half of the guidance and faster, which necessitates a variety of watches at this time. With the center re-formation, the low- and mid-level centers appear to be coming into better alignment. This structural change could facilitate rapid intensification during the next day or two given light-to-moderate shear along the forecast track, near-record SSTs for this time of the year and a very moist environment. Near landfall, increasing shear could cause some weakening, but it isn't certain how fast the winds will diminish. Regardless, Isaias should be growing in size as it approaches the northern Gulf coast due to a trough interaction. The latest guidance is very close to the last NHC intensity forecast, so little changes were made, and the NHC prediction is just below the corrected-consensus HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Isaias is expected to strengthen into a strong hurricane before approaching the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the northern Gulf coast, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued from The Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown Florida. Residents in the watch area should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 2. The risk of damaging hurricane force-winds is increasing over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and Mississippi. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida. Residents in these areas should prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages. 3. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. 4. Isaias could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portion of the Yucatan Peninsula over the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 22.4N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 22.7N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 23.4N 90.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 26.6N 88.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 29.2N 87.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 32.2N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/1200Z 38.0N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026 ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR STRENGTHENING ISAIAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 93.6W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Mississippi River eastward to Yankeetown, Florida. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi to Indian Pass, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast from the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line, Louisiana to west of Bay St. Louis, and from east of Indian Pass to Aucilla River, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line to west of Bay St. Louis * East of Indian Pass to Aucilla River

5pm TD 9

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of America has recently developed a closed circulation, though it might still be elongated. Associated showers and thunderstorms have also become better organized, and this system now meets the criteria to be a tropical depression, the ninth one of the season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB. The depression has barely moved over the past 6 to 12 hours, with the initial motion estimated to be 120/1 kt. The cyclone is expected to track slowly eastward or east-northeastward during the next couple of days while it moves in the flow near the base of a broad deep-layer trough, and could bring gusty winds and heavy rains to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. By Friday, a sharp turn to the northeast is expected when a shortwave trough forms over Texas and a ridge strengthens over the western Atlantic. This pattern change should cause the system to accelerate toward the northern Gulf Coast on Friday and into early Saturday. The NHC track forecast lies near the fast side of the guidance, in best agreement with the GDMI and ECAI aids. It should be noted that there is significant uncertainty in where the system makes the northeast turn and how fast it moves toward the coast. It appears that the stronger the system gets, the faster it will move toward the coast given the strength of the deep-layer flow. The NOAA G-IV jet is currently sampling the environment and special upper-air soundings are being deployed over the south-central U.S. The assimilation of these data into the dynamical models should improve their representation of the current environmental conditions, ideally yielding more reliable track and intensity guidance. The environmental conditions appear generally conducive for strengthening over the next few days, and given that the storm appears compact, it will likely steadily strengthen during that time. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm by early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday. Based on the environmental conditions and the model guidance, the cyclone will likely peak in strength before reaching the coast. Although not seen in the forecast, some weakening seems likely when the storm nears the Gulf Coast due to an increase in vertical wind shear, but it is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes landfall. This forecast is in fair agreement with the consensus aids, but it should be noted that there are skillful models that are higher than the current forecast. Although the storm is expected to be compact for the next few days, it will likely grow significantly in size, particularly on the eastern side, when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Therefore, based on the forecast uncertainty and expected larger size, users are urged not to focus on the forecast points and stay tuned to updates. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of dangerous wind and storm surge impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, and watches could be required on Wednesday. Residents from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 2. The system will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. 3. Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico: The depression is expected to strengthen and could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portion of the Yucatan Peninsula in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 22.1N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 22.1N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 22.6N 93.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 23.1N 91.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 24.2N 90.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 25.9N 88.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 28.5N 88.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 34.0N 88.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 11/1800Z 38.9N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

@CAPE https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/50116449/sources-ravens-qb-lamar-jackson-dealing-ankle-sprain

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of America. Continued development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is anticipated to form over the next day or so while it drifts eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. It is still too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this system. The NOAA Gulfstream is scheduled to sample the environment over the Gulf later today and an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

I'm expecting both teams to make the playoffs this year

I only see three down? KMOB, KTLH, and KEVX

We basically get some showers... maybe half inch from it

Win one more round and lose in the 2nd round to the Penguins again? Sure