yoda

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 244 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 MDZ502-WVZ050-051-055-502-504-220245- /O.NEW.KLWX.HT.Y.0001.250622T1600Z-250623T0000Z/ Central and Eastern Allegany-Hampshire-Morgan-Hardy-Eastern Grant- Eastern Mineral- 244 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heat index values up to 102 expected in the valleys. * WHERE...In Maryland, Central and Eastern Allegany County. In West Virginia, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Hampshire, Hardy, and Morgan Counties. * WHEN...From noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 244 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016-503>508-VAZ053>055-502-505-506- 526-527-220245- /O.NEW.KLWX.XH.A.0001.250623T1500Z-250624T0100Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford- Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 244 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 ...EXTREME HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 110 possible. * WHERE...Washington DC, and portions of central and northern Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From late Monday morning through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses increase significantly during extreme heat and high humidity events. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

I can definitely see low 100s in the favored areas Monday and Tuesday... maybe Wednesday too

Power is out here. I assume @mattie g power is out too

Same here

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 351 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The District of Columbia... Southeastern Howard County in central Maryland... Southern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Central Prince Georges County in central Maryland... West central Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... East central Prince William County in northern Virginia... The northeastern City of Manassas in northern Virginia... The City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... Arlington County in northern Virginia... The City of Alexandria in northern Virginia... * Until 445 PM EDT. * At 351 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Broadlands to 7 miles west of Dale City, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Arlington, Alexandria, Columbia, Centreville, Dale City, Rockville, Bethesda, Gaithersburg, Reston, Bowie, Annandale, Clinton, Olney, Springfield, College Park, South Riding, Fort Washington, Herndon, Greenbelt, and Fairfax. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! Damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3926 7679 3877 7674 3864 7746 3905 7751 TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 242DEG 41KT 3900 7750 3864 7749 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

66mph gust at Hume 64mph at Culpeper airport

Ouch time BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 337 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... North central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 400 PM EDT. * At 336 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Middleburg, or 9 miles southwest of Brambleton, moving east at 50 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR ALDIE, ARCOLA, DULLES INTERNATONAL AIRPORT, STERLING.... HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Reston, South Riding, Herndon, Broadlands, Brambleton, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Sterling, Chantilly, Countryside, Arcola, Aldie, Halfway, and Sterling Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. Damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3887 7776 3894 7778 3906 7742 3891 7734 TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 255DEG 42KT 3892 7768 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

Headed toward DC metro within the hour

vere Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 322 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 VAC047-059-061-107-153-179-683-685-192000- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-250619T2000Z/ Loudoun VA-Stafford VA-Fairfax VA-Fauquier VA-Culpeper VA- City of Manassas Park VA-Prince William VA-City of Manassas VA- 322 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOUDOUN...NORTHWESTERN STAFFORD...WESTERN FAIRFAX... EASTERN FAUQUIER...CENTRAL CULPEPER...AND PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES... THE CITY OF MANASSAS PARK AND THE CITY OF MANASSAS... At 321 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bealeton, or 8 miles southwest of Warrenton, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Emergency management reports a history of downed trees with this line of storms. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Centreville, Dale City, South Riding, Broadlands, Brambleton, Warrenton, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Linton Hall, Sterling, Chantilly, Montclair, Bull Run, Triangle, Dumfries, Bealeton, Haymarket, Arcola, The Plains, and Manassas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3840 7801 3859 7782 3889 7786 3903 7743 3853 7731 TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 259DEG 40KT 3862 7789 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A strong ridge of high pressure will stay in place Sunday through Wednesday. Heat and high humidity will be the main story through these four days. High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 90s with one or two days reaching the lower 100s in some places, especially near the metros and eastern zones. Heat indices will reach the 100 to 105 degree range in many places with a few places reaching near or at 110 degrees. Afternoon AFD from LWX... now mentioning temperatures above 100 degrees next week

Hmmmm Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 224 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Heat and humidity continue ahead of a potent cold front that looks to cross the region. The front will bring a widespread risk of severe weather to the area with damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall as the primary concerns. Drier and less humid Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds into the region. A prolonged period of excessive heat is expected Sunday into the middle part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 18Z/2 PM EDT, a solid line of thunderstorms was developing rapidly along a prefrontal trough. This line, fueled by convergence along the trough and height falls ahead of an approaching short wave, will strengthen as it moves east into an increasingly unstable airmass. Shear is modest at 30-35 kts but these speeds extend through nearly the entire troposphere, and when coupled with high PWs and steepening low-level lapse rates is very favorable for numerous damaging wind gusts. Transient supercell structures are possible embedded within this line, but more so heading into the late afternoon and evening with any secondary development along the synoptic cold front as it approaches. Shear aloft will increase during this time. Be aware that there may be more than one round of strong storms through this evening.

Lot of trees being blown down per LSRs

Numerous trees down in Shenandoah per LSR

Brief TVS sig NE of Winchester on Radarscope

I'm guessing the severe warned storms back in W WV are with the actual cold front itself?

Correct 10% probs on two or more tornadoes... 20/10 on hail probs

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 442 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland Northern North Carolina New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Central and Eastern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will move off the mountains of western Virginia and southern Pennsylvania, spreading eastward across the watch through the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail are possible in the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Allentown PA to 20 miles east of Danville VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

Mentions isolated significant gusts to 75mph

Watch up until 9pm

It begins BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 135 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... North central Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia... Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... The City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia... Northeastern Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Southwestern Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Southeastern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 215 PM EDT. * At 134 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wardensville, or 16 miles east of Moorefield, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Winchester, Millwood Pike, Wardensville, Star Tannery, Capon Bridge, Yellow Spring, High View, Cedar Grove, Stephenson, Delray, Cross Junction, Baker, Gore, Albin, Capon Springs, Mccauley, Gravel Springs, Greenwood, Gainesboro, and High View Manor. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 441 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Western and Central Massachusetts Northern New Jersey Eastern New York Northeast Pennsylvania Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon in a very moist and unstable air mass. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of Newport VT to 60 miles southeast of Wilkesbarre PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

Watch up Weak watch at that lol

Head west @weatherwiz Mesoscale Discussion 1363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of the Northeast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 191644Z - 191815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows deepening towering cumulus across central and eastern New York amid moderate instability in an uncapped environment. As storms deepen, some organization/updraft rotation is expected given moderate shear (50 knots at 3km per ENX VWP). Damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threat from this activity. Storm coverage may be somewhat isolated early this afternoon as the upper-level trough and surface front remain across the eastern Great Lakes/southern Ontario. Additional storms may arrive this evening as those features move east, but instability will likely be weaker by this time, and the severe threat remains questionable by later this evening. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF... CTP... LAT...LON 41727697 43137600 45007485 45087370 45077361 45037202 44287197 42447221 41197276 40967327 40887370 40797446 40827510 40927587 41117637 41727697 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN