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yoda

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Everything posted by yoda

  1. 12z NAM throwing out some nasty hodographs and STP numbers between 21z and 00z KFDK at 00z DCA at 00z
  2. Looks like 12z HRRR has some discrete convection from 18z to 20z across the region before QLCS (?) comes through around 22z-23z
  3. 1300z SPC OTLK has moved the ENH southern line south to RIC... was near EZF on 06z outlook
  4. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States today into tonight. Swaths of damaging wind gusts are expected to be the most common impact, but some tornadoes are possible as well. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... A broad area of 40-50-kt mid-level west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as a large-scale trough amplifies and shifts across the northeastern CONUS. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of an eastward-moving cold front across the Ohio Valley and along a pre-frontal trough over the Mid-Atlantic. In the base of the trough, a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moving from the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic may also serve as a focus for convective development. Severe thunderstorm potential could increase relatively early today across parts of Ohio into Pennsylvania and western New York. Diurnal heating within cloud breaks, combined with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints, will support at least moderate surface-based instability across the broad pre-frontal warm sector. The most favorable overlap of this instability and 40-50 kt of effective shear is expected from the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, where a mix of organized clusters and supercells should evolve and spread eastward through the day. Swaths of damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe hazard, though severe hail will also be possible with any initial/sustained supercells. Additionally, a gradually strengthening and expanding 30-kt low-level jet will contribute to clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, and a few tornadoes may occur. This supercell related-tornado potential may focus along the warm front into parts of the Northeast, and with semi-discrete development later today focusing along the lee trough/edge of higher terrain, although low-level shear/SRH will be moderate in most of the open warm sector as well.
  5. I don't think we see pure blue skies and sun today... I think as the sat image you posted shows we will have sun and clouds. Should be enough as long as its like 3 to 5 hours of it
  6. I work overnight (Sunday to Wednesday) so I have time to post lol Disco says we should get some breaks soon as the WF goes by... we shall see as you said
  7. Morning discussion from LWX on the threat today DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today, with some thunderstorm risk lingering into Wednesday. Higher dew points have been advecting into the area with moisture and instability increasing in S/SW flow. So far shower activity has been isolated and short lived. However, a subtle shortwave is approaching, and some of the convection currently across WV and SW VA could persist or redevelop across the area through the early morning hours. Areas of stratus are also forming. Both of these features could inhibit surface heating this morning, although it does appear we should have some partial sun by midday as the warm front continues to lift to the north. This should be enough to allow temperatures to rise into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Combined with dew points in the 70s, at least moderate surface based instability should develop, highest east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. A seasonably strong trough will be approaching from the west, providing forcing and anywhere between 30 and 50 kt of flow in the cloud bearing layer. This will provide a favorable environment for severe thunderstorms, with supercells and clusters both possible. One initiation region will likely be along the prefrontal/lee trough near or just east of the Blue Ridge. These storms will likely affect the I-95 corridor between mid afternoon and early evening. While these storms will certainly carry severe potential, it is interesting to note on average the 850-700 mb wind fields will be greater to our south and west until late afternoon or early evening. Other details remain unresolved, especially the effects of upstream convection that moved through the upper Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley. This could have some impact on how thunderstorms develop across the Ohio Valley this afternoon and what subsequently moves into western areas. If stronger/more widespread convection does not move in from the Ohio Valley, there is some potential there is a relative minimum in coverage between the Blue Ridge and Alleghenies. The coverage of afternoon storms and upstream effects will determine what happens this evening as the strongest forcing overspread the area along with increasing low level wind fields. A second round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible for some areas, though increasing low level stability may limit the severe weather threat. It appears the evening/overnight coverage could gradually shift to southern parts of the forecast area, or even mostly to our south, potentially focusing on outflow from earlier activity. Damaging winds will be the primary severe hazard, although large hail and a tornado or two are possible if supercells develop. Some localized swaths of more considerable wind damage are possible. Relatively speaking, the tornado threat is higher to the north (and north of the CWA) closer to the warm front and possibly closer to the Chesapeake Bay where low level winds could be backed. With that said, forecast hodographs vary quite a bit between models and also throughout time, so any relatively higher threat will depend on the mesoscale details. With precipitable water values increasing (over 2 inches east of the Blue Ridge), any storm mergers and training along mesoscale boundaries could result in localized flash flooding. Overall storm motions will be progressive though, so this threat appears too localized for a Flood Watch at the moment and will continue to be evaluated. Additional areas to monitor will be the Ohio Valley low level jet potentially leading to training (looks to be mostly west of the area), and the evening low level jet leading to backbuilding along any residual outflow/convergence feature (best QPF signal is currently mostly south of the forecast area).
  8. Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. ...Synopsis... High amplitude ridging will build across the western US with continued progressive troughing across the east on Tuesday. Multiple short-wave impulses will rotate through the eastern US trough, with a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow traversing the Midwest into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will shift south and east through the period, with a surface low across southern Ontario/Quebec. A pre-frontal surface trough will also be in place across western/central NY into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected through the period. ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase along the pre-frontal trough from western/central New York into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic late Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Though there may be potential for early morning cloud cover, it does appear that sufficient heating/moistening will occur for at least moderate instability to develop across the region through the afternoon. Mid-level flow will increase through the day along with forcing for ascent. It appears widely scattered thunderstorm activity with several clusters/embedded supercells will be ongoing by the afternoon. Highest confidence in transient embedded supercell modes would be closer to the surface low and near the front across western NY into eastern PA. Here, there may be potential for both damaging wind, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Guidance suggests the best signal for damaging wind will be across the Mid-Atlantic, where several damaging clusters could occur. As such, the Enhanced was expanded eastward into portions of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley... Evolution of overnight convection will play a large role in development/maintenance of thunderstorm activity across the Ohio Valley Tuesday. It appears that remnant convection will be ongoing at the start of the period near/just ahead of the surface front across northern Kentucky/southern Indiana/Ohio. This will likely re-intensify and continue to expand south and east during the morning as daytime heating begins. Strong daytime heating and moist profiles should support moderate to strong instability developing though the afternoon. Storm mode appears to be generally linear, with the greatest threat being for damaging wind given more linear forcing/initially boundary parallel shear along residual southward moving outflow. As such, the primary hazard will be damaging wind. Additional thunderstorm development is likely along and ahead of the front through the afternoon with increasing forcing for ascent with approaching shortwaves. Strong deep layer shear may become more boundary perpendicular supporting a supercell or two as the front sags south, with potential for large hail and perhaps a tornado. Confidence in this scenario is on the lower end and the primary hazard is expected to be a secondary wave of damaging wind potential. Should storms be able to cluster and establish a more organized cold pool, potential for some corridor of significant wind may be possible. Overall, no significant wind areas were included given low confidence in exact morning storm evolution and concerns over generally poor lapse rates. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2026
  9. Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 The area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring in the northeastern Gulf of America during the past few days has now developed a well-defined low-level circulation. The convective activity remains patchy, likely due to intrusions of dry air from its northeast, but there is enough persistent convection near the center and in bands on its northeast and southwest sides to justify this system as a tropical depression. The circulation is sprawling and still weak, however. Based on surface observations and earlier ASCAT data, the initial intensity is set at 25 kt and the minimum pressure is 1011 mb. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system later today, and their data will be helpful to better assess the system’s initial structure. The initial motion of the system is difficult to know since it has only recently become well defined, but our best guess is north-northwestward at 3 kt. The system is currently caught in weak steering currents between a ridge over the western Atlantic, another ridge over the south-central and southwestern U.S., and a trough over the northeast U.S. This pattern should take the cyclone slowly northwestward through Monday night, and the system will likely be close enough to the Florida Panhandle to bring the potential for tropical storm conditions there. After that time, a turn to the west or west-northwest seems to be the most likely scenario as the ridge over the southern U.S. builds eastward, taking the system near or across the Gulf coast during the middle and latter portions of the week. The NHC track forecast lies a touch to the south of middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the usually best-performing aids HCCA, TVCN, and GDMI. The sprawling nature of the system, nearby dry air, and some northeasterly vertical wind shear suggest that any strengthening should be slow to occur, especially in the short term. Nonetheless, the system is expected to become a tropical storm as it approaches the Florida Panhandle during the next day or two. There seems to be a better opportunity for the system to strengthen once it turns westward, however, the amount of strengthening will be dependent on how far offshore the circulation is. The NHC track forecast lies toward the upper end of the model guidance, however, there is a low amount of confidence given the uncertainty of how much land interaction will take place. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. 2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be required for portions of that area over the next day or two. 3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 28.0N 85.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 28.2N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 28.5N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 28.8N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 29.1N 86.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 29.4N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 29.7N 88.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 29.5N 91.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 29.7N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
  10. Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 85.3W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Florida from Ochlockonee River to the Alabama border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48 hours. Additional watches will likely be required over the next day or two. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 85.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and a slow northwestward or north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Monday. The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
  11. Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... A vigorous upper trough will spread across the region on Tuesday. A broad area of strong deep-layer flow, especially by July standards, will overlap a very moist airmass ahead of an eastward progressing surface cold front. Widespread dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected. While some uncertainty exists regarding potential morning convection in the form of a remnant MCS from the Day 2/Monday period across parts of MI/IN/OH, pockets of stronger heating should occur, and given rich moisture/continuous warm advection ahead of the surface front, strong destabilization is forecast. While boundary layer moisture will begin the day somewhat muted across parts of the Northeast, strong warm advection and increasing southerly low-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast will also result in northward transport of richer boundary layer moisture through evening. While instability may be somewhat less further east into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, strong deep-layer flow will envelop this region as well. Supercell wind profiles are evident across the broad warm sector, with 40+ kt westerly flow common above 850 mb. Where supercells can develop and be maintained, all severe hazards will be possible. However, given the strong flow field, and the progressive trough and surface front, one or more bowing segments will quickly develop and spread eastward. Swaths of damaging winds will be the primary concern during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 07/19/2026
  12. Its at the end of the NAM range... but those weren't very friendly soundings Tuesday night across the region Yes, I know things will change, but still... DCA at 81 (03z Wednesday) IAD at 84 (06z Wednesday)
  13. Pretty active day per the LSR https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=LSR
  14. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 257 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 MDC013-021-181915- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0265.000000T0000Z-260718T1915Z/ Carroll MD-Frederick MD- 257 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND NORTH CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... At 257 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Taneytown, or 8 miles southeast of Emmitsburg, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Taneytown, Keysville, and Harney. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for north central Maryland. Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
  15. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 300 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Western Carroll County in north central Maryland... Western Howard County in central Maryland... Northern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 400 PM EDT. * At 259 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Mount Lena to near Poolesville, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Columbia, Germantown, Frederick, Gaithersburg, Leesburg, Hagerstown, Olney, Damascus, Thurmont, Poolesville, Emmitsburg, Harry Grove Stadium, Montgomery Village, Eldersburg, Ballenger Creek, Redland, Mount Airy, Robinwood, Taneytown, and Brunswick. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside should move immediately to shelter inside a strong building. Stay away from windows. Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for central and north central Maryland. && LAT...LON 3918 7686 3910 7753 3961 7771 3972 7748 3972 7712 TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 246DEG 26KT 3957 7762 3914 7746 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH $$
  16. I believe it was @high risk who said there was rotation aloft today... but that it was weak in the low levels
  17. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 234 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 234 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Thurmont, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Westminster, Thurmont, Emmitsburg, Taneytown, Union Bridge, Harney, Rocky Ridge, Detour, Uniontown, Keysville, Keymar, and Graceham. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
  18. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 233 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... North central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 300 PM EDT. * At 233 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Ballenger Creek, or near Harry Grove Stadium, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Damascus and Green Valley around 240 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Park Mills, Monrovia, Buckeystown, and Clarksburg. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3936 7717 3935 7717 3934 7719 3930 7715 3929 7715 3923 7721 3930 7744 3935 7742 TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 268DEG 21KT 3932 7738 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
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