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Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Melissa is still trying to get organized. While the central pressure has fallen to 993 mb, the tail Doppler radar data from the NOAA aircraft shows that the 500-mb center is displaced about 20-25 n mi east-southeast of the surface center. The tilt is also present at the aircraft flight levels, with dropsondes released at the flight-level center missing the surface center and reporting 25-35 kt surface winds. In addition, the aircraft radar data and land-based radar data from Jamaica show that the cyclone has not yet been able to develop a persistent eyewall. Based mainly on the central pressure and satellite intensity estimates the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. Although the initial motion is a bit uncertain, Melissa now appears to be moving slowly northwest with the initial motion 325/3 kt. A turn toward the west or west-northwest and a continued slow forward speed are expected in 12-24 h as low- to mid-level ridging builds to the north of the cyclone. This motion should continue through about 72 h. After that time, a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving into the southeastern United States and the southwestern Atlantic will break the ridge to the north, with Melissa expected to turn northward and eventually northeastward as it recurves into the westerlies. There remains a substantial spread in the guidance with respect to where the center of Melissa may pass in relation to Jamaica, with solutions ranging from the GFS passing near the eastern end of the island to the Canadian passing west of the island. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and shows the center passing over Jamaica just after 72 h. However, any motion north of the current forecast track could bring the center near or over Jamaica at almost any time between 24-72 h. After passing Jamaica, Melissa is likely to move near or over eastern Cuba, but which portion of eastern Cuba may be most affected remains uncertain at this time. While the westerly shear that has been affecting Melissa will not completely stop during the next 2-3 days, it is forecast to decrease to about 10-15 kt in 24 h or less. This should allow rapid development as the storm is located in a moist environment over very warm sea surface temperatures. The one short-term restraining factor is that Melissa's structure is not quite good enough yet to allow rapid intensification (RI), and thus it could be another 6-12 h before RI begins in earnest. The latest round of intensity guidance shows somewhat lower peak intensities than the previous advisory, mainly due to the models moving Melissa near or over Jamaica. However, the current forecast track keeps the center offshore for 72 h or more, and based on this the new intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance with a peak intensity of 135 kt. Despite the weaker guidance, there is still a possibility that Melissa could become a category 5 hurricane during the forecast period. After passing near or over Jamaica, the cyclone is forecast to weaken due to possible interaction with Cuba and increasing southwesterly shear as Melissa encounters the mid-latitude westerlies. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning late Saturday or Sunday, likely causing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge early next week. All preparations should be complete by late Saturday. 2. Haiti: Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation of communities. Immediate preparations to protect life and property are urged. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula. 3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern regions. 4. Eastern Cuba, Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides is increasing. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 16.1N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 16.5N 75.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.7N 75.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 16.8N 76.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 16.8N 76.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 16.9N 77.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 17.4N 77.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 19.3N 76.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 23.2N 73.7W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1219 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-VAZ053-054-057-250030- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0013.251025T0600Z-251025T1300Z/ District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-King George- 1219 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central, northeast, northern, and southern Maryland, and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Biggest impacts will be outside of city centers, as well as areas further inland from the shores of the Chesapeake Bay and Potomac River.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1219 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 MDZ004>006-503-505-507-VAZ055-056-505-506-526-527-250030- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0006.251025T0600Z-251025T1300Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Stafford-Spotsylvania-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 1219 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, and northern Maryland and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

@EastCoast NPZ getting good rains

Like the term squeegee line lol... also since when did NWS utilize Nadocast? Afternoon disco from LWX SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A potent trough of low pressure will move into the northern/eastern Great Lakes Sunday morning while it`s associated cold front pushes east from the Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile, high pressure will reside off the southeast U.S coast leading to increased southerly flow across the region. With the tightened pressure gradient between the departing high and incoming front/trough of low pressure expect a windy end to the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are expected for most of the day as moisture steadily increases across the region. Mid and high level clouds will spread west to east from the Alleghenies Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Some filter breaks of sun will be observed early east of the I-81 corridor with any rain activity likely holding off until after sunset. 06Z/12Z CAMS have slowed a bit from previous model solutions. As it stands now, shower activity looks to develop west of the Alleghenies/I-81 corridor late Sunday afternoon before spreading east toward the metros late Sunday evening into Sunday night. Most guidance illustrates a frontal passage within the 2z-8z/10pm-4am window for areas east of I-81 and toward the I-95 metros. This is the time of greatest moisture surge and perhaps some subtle instability as the trough axis takes on a negative tilt. CAPE values look to remain less than 300 j/kg with bulk effective shear values running between 40-50 kts+. Forcing will be strong especially along the front. This will allow for both strong background winds and a strong wind field aloft to mix down to surface with any convective elements that form along the front. 06z/12z guidance continues to develop a line of gusty moderate to heavy showers that push from west to east across the area late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as well, especially west of I-95 where slightly better instability noted. SPC has expanded it`s Day 2 Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) to encompass the entire area Sunday afternoon. The main threat is damaging wind gusts although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given low level SRH 0-1km values around 100-200 m2/s2 and potential meso-low overhead. Both CSU, CIPS, and NSSL probabilities focus 5 to 15 percent probs for damaging winds as a squeegee line of gusty showers push through late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Nadocast has 2 percent probs over northern and central MD mainly covering the pre-dawn hours of Monday morning. Additional showers are possible through Monday morning behind the cold front as the negatively tilted upper-level trough passes through. This activity will likely be short-lived with dry air working back in as high pressure builds from the south Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

Fwiw NOUS41 KLWX 171207 PNSLWX MDZ501-502-509-510-VAZ025>027-503-504-WVZ050-055-501>506-180015- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 807 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED FOR ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY... Based on freezing temperatures last night into this morning, the growing season has been declared over for the following counties: In Maryland: Garrett and Allegany In Virginia: Highland, Rockingham, Augusta, and Shenandoah In West Virginia: Pendleton, Grant, Mineral, Hardy, and Hampshire As a result, no Frost/Freeze headlines will be issued for these areas until Spring 2026. $$ BELAK

SPC is monitoring Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... A large-scale mid-level trough and an associated cold front are forecast to move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley at the start of the period. This convection should have a negative impact on instability across the much of the moist sector during the day. In areas that are not impacted, weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the front from Georgia and the Carolinas into the central Appalachians. The instability combined with strong large-scale ascent and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will likely result in a severe threat. A potential for wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible. At this time, uncertainty is substantial as to exactly where the greatest severe potential will occur. As new runs come in, an upgrade to Slight may be needed. A mid-level low is forecast to move across the Northeast on Monday, as the associated trough moves into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in parts of southern New England during the late morning and early afternoon before the front moves offshore.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 942 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 MDZ003-501-502-509-510-VAZ025>031-503-504-WVZ050>053-055-501>506- 152145- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0004.251017T0600Z-251017T1300Z/ Washington-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah- Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 942 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 to 32 degrees are possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, northwest and western Virginia, and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The coolest temperatures are likely in the valleys. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

That's a weird looking radar

Dallas loses to Carolina... Philly lost Thursday night... big big game for Commanders tomorrow night

Franklin fired https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/46573030/penn-state-fires-head-coach-james-franklin-sources-say

@WxUSAF Franklin fired https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/46573030/penn-state-fires-head-coach-james-franklin-sources-say

Allar done for the year https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/penn-state-becomes-first-fbs-team-in-last-30-years-to-lose-consecutive-games-as-at-least-a-20-point-favorite/ https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25259508-drew-allar-out-season-after-suffering-leg-injury-psus-loss-northwestern

Nice pictures. You might be out by my family's large farm out there if you are near Luray

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A coastal low pressure system will take shape off of the Southeast U.S. Coast tonight through midday Saturday, before moving north along the Eastern Seaboard Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. An occasional shower or sprinkles could evolve Saturday into Saturday evening from southeast to northwest across the region. A light to moderate steadier rainfall could arrive in several bands overnight Saturday through Sunday night as the coastal low gets closer to the mid- Atlantic region and nearly stalls. Rain amounts could average 1 to 2 inches along and east of a line from Hagerstown to Warrenton to Fredericksburg. To the west of this line, one-half to three-quarters of an inch. The heaviest rainfall could reach the 3 to 3.5 inch amounts in places. The interaction between the departing area of high pressure off the New England Coast and the coastal low pressure system will result in stronger northeast winds to develop and persist through much of the weekend. An elongated trough of low pressure, accompanied by a few mid-level disturbances, will help to tighten the pressure gradient Saturday through Sunday to result in stronger northeasterly winds. Northeast winds will increase late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon with sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph gusting 25 to 30 mph. Winds could gust 35 to 40 mph over land within a several miles of the Chesapeake Bay shoreline. A big uncertainty remains in the track and intensity of coastal low, simultaneously, as it moves up the coast. Also, to make matters even less certain, is the interaction or phasing of the mid- level disturbances with the coastal low and the exact location of that occurrence. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Breezy and wet conditions likely continue into Monday, and perhaps even into the first half of Tuesday, as the coastal low meanders off the Delmarva Peninsula before eventually pulling further offshore on Tuesday. There seems to be a decent amount of agreement that precipitation should taper off by Tuesday afternoon as the low shift further to the east. However, it remain close enough that winds may still remain elevated for a couple days thereafter.

12z CMC very rainy too... retrograde back toward us on Monday

This is the new CMC precip maps... the old ones no longer work https://eccc-msc.github.io/msc-animet/?layers=GDPS.ETA_PN;0.75;0;1;0;1,GDPS.DIAG_NW_PT3H;0.75;0;1;0;1&extent=-11358064,1081878,-7522829,7804193&overlays=Boundaries&range=80,26,l,PT3H Pretty cool you can zoom way in too on the new precip maps as well

Piggybacking on this... the precip maps have changed for CMC https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html This doesn't exist anymore. Got an upgrade looks like... New link is there at the old one

Fwiw, 12z UKIE is a swing and a miss

I see a 30kt barb at DCA... looks like storm force winds on the Bay

12z GFS is quite rainy. Looks pretty windy as well on the Bay and Potomac

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025 The system we have been monitoring (Invest 95L) over the tropical central Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized thunderstorm activity and a low-level center to be considered a tropical cyclone. This system is far from land, roughly 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. An ASCAT pass from around 12Z showed peak winds between 35 and 40 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Jerry. Convective bands are increasing around the center, and the strongest winds are on the storm's east side. Jerry is moving quickly westward at about 21 kt on the south-southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge. A turn to the west-northwest with a gradual reduction in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days as Jerry nears the southwestern edge of the ridge. This should bring the core near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. Around that time, the models show a deep-layer trough amplifying over the western Atlantic, which should erode the ridge. In response to the pattern change, Jerry is forecast to turn northward over the west-central Atlantic this weekend. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the model consensus through 72 hours and in best agreement with HCCA and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean, which have been performing quite well so far this year. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor Jerry as there is uncertainty on how close the core of the system will get to the islands later this week. The environmental conditions appear favorable for the system to strengthen during the next couple of days with the upper-level winds appearing light, waters quite warm, and abundant surrounding moisture. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a hurricane in a day or two before its closest approach to the northern Leeward Islands. After the system passes by the islands, the models diverge significantly with some solutions showing Jerry moving into stronger shear while others keep it in a favorable upper-level wind pattern. For now, the official forecast shows no change in strength from days 3 to 5, but confidence is low for that portion of the intensity forecast. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is forecast to pass near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday. Interests there should monitor the progress of the storm as there is a risk of wind, surf, and rainfall impacts. Watches may be required for a portion of that area later today or tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 11.5N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 12.3N 47.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 13.5N 51.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 14.9N 54.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 16.5N 57.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 18.1N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 19.8N 61.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 24.4N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 29.4N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi