yoda

Sounds like LWX radar will be down for a bit... going to have to use IAD close in or DOX NOUS61 KLWX 062156 FTMLWX MESSAGE DATE: SEP 6 2025 21:55 UTC LWX WSR-88D IS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO A PEDESTAL ISSUE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED. $$ KR

Trying again near Nokesville/Bristow area?

Intrigued near Warrenton

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 607 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Delaware Massachusetts Northeast Maryland Western and Central Maine Southern New Hampshire New Jersey Southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Rhode Island Southeast Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a boundary from central Maryland northeastward into parts of New York/Vermont. These storms will intensify through the afternoon, with locally severe storms expected. Damaging winds will be the main risk with the stronger cells, although a few could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Wilmington DE to 25 miles east of Bangor ME. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

One of the largest watches I've seen before from SPC... from MD to ME

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1963980757417799798

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1963994545768608055

Afternoon day 3 update from SPC mentions potential upgrade to SLGT risk depending on destabilization - currently MRGL risk

Getting lucky today here... looks like some training ongoing

Decent storm south of FDK

What's this weird liquid falling from the sky and wetting the ground?

Well isn't that your name sir?

Any reason I'm hearing jets repeatedly fly over my house past 10 minutes?

DCA: +0.3 NYC: -0.3 BOS: -0.6 ORD: +0.4 ATL: +0.9 IAH: +1.0 DEN: +1.3 PHX: +1.4 SEA: +2.7

Guess I will need the jacket for a morning walk... on a August morning...

I see its raining there

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0925&yr=2025 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0925 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1025 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 131425Z - 132025Z SUMMARY...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms with locally extreme rainfall rates will tend to expand in coverage over the next several hours. Scattered areas of flash flooding will gradually become likely, and especially later this afternoon closer to the I-95 corridor of the Mid-Atlantic where an urban flash flood threat is expected to evolve. DISCUSSION...The latest satellite and radar imagery shows a band of heavy showers and thunderstorms moving into northern WV, and the latest trends show cooling cloud tops associated with this activity. This convection is associated with the southwest flank of mid-level vort energy going into the central Appalachians which is embedded within a very moist and moderately unstable environment. MLCAPE values across northern WV and western MD, and areas east of the Blue Ridge over the Mid-Atlantic, are locally on the order of 1000+ J/kg. However, the PWs are quite high and locally over 2 standard deviations above normal. In fact, the 12Z RAOB soundings from KPIT and KIAD showed PWs of 1.86 and 2.22 inches respectively with tall skinny CAPE profiles and elevated WBZ/freezing levels. This is strongly suggestive of a very efficient and tropical environment that will promote highly efficient processes for locally extreme rainfall rates that may reach well into the 2 to 3+ inch/hour range. Convection should tend to generally build in coverage over the next several hours as this vort energy advances off to the east across the central Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic region. This will support heavy showers and thunderstorms advancing east through central and northern WV, western MD and southwest PA in the near-term. However, as instability and convergent low-level flow becomes better established this afternoon east of the Blue Ridge and into the Chesapeake Bay region, there will likely be the development and expansion of very heavy showers and thunderstorms across much of northern VA, central to northeast MD and southern PA, including areas along the I-95 corridor from Washington D.C. to Philadelphia. The latest hires model guidance may be underplaying the rainfall potential given the level of moisture that is in place, and there will the influence of diurnal heating and orographics that will also support an uptick in coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Slow cell-motions and localized cell-training concerns coupled with locally extreme rainfall rates may support some localized rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches. Areas of scattered flash flooding will become likely in time, and this will include an increasing urban flash flood threat near the I-95 corridor by later this afternoon. Orrison ATTN...WFO...AKQ...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...RNK... ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

Yeah I didn't miss the humidity last week

Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 18 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Fri Aug 08 2025 Henriette has failed to produce deep convection for about 12 hours now. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 25 kt from JTWC and too weak to classify from SAB and PHFO. Recent objective intensity estimates range from 25 to 40 kt. An earlier ASCAT pass from 0535 UTC showed a large area of 30-33 kt vectors on the north side of Henriette. Henriette will be maintained as a 35-kt tropical storm for this advisory, but it could degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low at any time today. The cyclone is moving just north of due west at 280/15 kt. A turn to the west-northwest is expected soon as the cyclone tracks along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to its northeast. A turn toward the northwest is forecast late this weekend into early next week as Henriette becomes steered between an amplifying longwave trough northwest of Hawaii and the subtropical ridge to its northeast. The NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and is in good agreement with the tightly clustered consensus aids. Confidence remains high that Henriette will remain far to the north of Hawaii. Henriette is over 24C sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and is embedded within a dry airmass. These cold SSTs are expected to persist along the cyclone's track for another 12 to 24 h. If Henriette doesn't generate organized convection soon, it could degenerate to a remnant low today, and this is explicitly shown in the NHC forecast Beyond 24 h, Henriette (or its remnants) will encounter progressively warmer water temperatures over the weekend, peaking around 26-27C in about 3 days. Upper-level temperatures are also expected to decrease in a couple of days as the aforementioned trough approaches Henriette, which would increase instability. These factors, along with relatively low shear, will likely allow Henriette to restrengthen later this weekend into early next week, as depicted by most of the models. The NHC intensity forecast is at the low end of the guidance envelope through 36 h, and at the high end of the guidance at 72-96 h. Beyond day 4, wind shear from the longwave trough and cooling SSTs should lead to steady weakening as Henriette moves farther into the mid-latitudes. Even if Henriette becomes post-tropical today, given the high likelihood of regeneration back into a tropical cyclone and subsequent restrengthening, NHC plans on maintaining advisories during the post-tropical phase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 19.7N 141.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 20.3N 143.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 09/1200Z 21.3N 146.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/0000Z 22.6N 148.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 10/1200Z 24.1N 150.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 25.9N 153.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 27.9N 155.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 32.3N 160.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 37.1N 165.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen

Interesting @Kmlwx https://x.com/Gio_wx/status/1953625408219271370

I'll try this this month if that's okay Roger DCA: +1.4 NYC: +1.1 BOS: +0.9 ORD: +0.7 ATL: +0.9 IAH: +1.3 DEN: +1.1 PHX: +1.6 SEA: +1.8

Re the humidity

Feels sooooooo much better outside after taking our dog for a long walk