yoda

Kind of surprised we are almost at 1pm and no MCD. There has been initiation out in WV for a bit

That would be high end around here tbh IMO

I thought they had fixed the obs at Baltimore Inner Harbor a year ago or so? Or was it they replaced it? I remember LWX doing something with it 11am obs there is 91 while BWI is 87

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1137 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ053-054-192345- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0017.250619T1900Z-250620T0100Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- 1137 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Washington DC, portions of Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore, and portions of northern Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria and Fairfax. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and thunderstorms may produce rainfall rates around 1 inch per hour, with localized totals of 2 to 3 inches possible in areas that receive multiple thunderstorms. This may result in rapid rises on small streams and creeks, and in urban and poor drainage areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information.

Confirmed https://x.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/1935725076726329567

What is considered decent? 6.0 to 6.5?

DC to Baltimore metro regions get pummeled on 12z NAM Nest around 20z/21z

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/legacy/ Choose our region, HRRR as your model, and then time back to 12z. You'll see a cell go into MD by DC around hour 6. Then slowly move forward to hrs 7 and 8 and you should see it

Updated morning AFD says slightly steeper MLLR on 12z KIAD RAOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 941 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Heat and humidity continue today ahead of a potent cold front that looks to cross the region. The front will bring a widespread risk of severe weather to the area later this afternoon and evening with damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall as the primary concerns. Drier and less humid Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds into the region. A prolonged period of excessive heat is expected Sunday into the middle part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of mid morning, satellite and observations revealed a clear sky east of the Appalachians. Steady heating is taking place, eroding CINH. Given abundant low-level moisture in place, moderate to strong instability will build quickly by midday despite modest mid-level lapse rates (though the 12Z KIAD RAOB did reveal an area of steeper lapse rates in the 850-700 hPa layer). Wind observations indicate gusts of 30 to 40 mph over the higher terrain, indicative of an enhanced wind field. Shaping up to be an active afternoon and evening ahead as a potent cold front and upper-level trough swing across the region. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained areas east of US-15 in an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) for severe weather today. Locations further west remain in a Slight Risk (Level 2 out 5). Regardless of the severe risk zones, all hazards will be on the table with t-storms today. SEVERE THREAT: Storms look to initiate over the mountains between 16-19z/12-3pm ahead of the incoming front. Areas further east will likely see storms develop between 2-4pm/18-20z with a prefrontal shortwave trough pushing through. Convection overall will be scattered mainly along and west of I-81 with conglomeration of supercells and organized line segments/clusters working east toward the Baltimore/DC metro areas between 19-23z/3-7pm. Storms will fuel off of high temperatures in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s with dewpoint factors in the upper 60s and low 70s. Heat indices will climb toward 100 degrees in the metros/east of the Blue Ridge as a result of the increased humidity. SBCAPE values look to surge into the 1500-3000 J/kg during the peak heating period with steepening low-level lapse rates (7+ C/KM). 0-6 km bulk effective shear values will run between 40-50 kts with 0-1 km SRH values around 100 m2/s2. This will amplify the damaging wind threat as well as the potential for an isolated tornado or two across the region, though low-level flow may be somewhat veered to W/SW. Updraft helicity tracks from the HREF illustrate the potential tornado/rotating updraft threat especially east of I-95 and down across southern MD/the northern neck of VA where slight better environmental spin resides (with a potential bay breeze/outflow interaction).

Early morning AFD from LWX on the threats... all hazards possible NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Shaping up to be an active afternoon and evening ahead as a potent cold front and upper level trough swing across the region. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded areas east of US-15 to an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) for severe weather today. Locations further west remain in a Slight Risk (Level 2 out 5). Regardless of the severe risk zones, all hazards will be on the table with t-storms today. SEVERE THREAT: Storms look to initiate over the mountains between 16- 19z/12-3pm ahead of the incoming front. Areas further east will likely see storms develop between 2-4pm/18-20z with a prefrontal shortwave trough pushing through. Convection overall will be scattered mainly along and west of I-81 with conglomeration of supercells and organized line segments/clusters working east toward the Baltimore/DC metro areas between 19-23z/3-7pm. Storms will fuel off of high temperatures in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s with dewpoint factors in the upper 60s and low 70s. Heat indices will climb toward 100 degrees in the metros/east of the Blue Ridge as A result of the increased humidity. SBCAPE values look to surge into the 1500-2500 j/kg during the peak heating period with steep low level lapse rates (7+ C/KM). 0-6 km bulk effective shear values will run between 40-60 kts with 0-1 km SRH values around 100-200 m2/s2. This will amplify the damaging wind threat as well as the potential for an isolated tornado or two across the region. Updraft helicity tracks illustrate the potential tornado threat especially east of I-95 and down across southern MD/the northern neck of VA where slight better spin resides (with a potential bay breeze/outflow interaction). FLASH FLOOD THREAT: Outside of the severe threat, instances of flash flooding will remain an issue mainly in the metros/over the terrain. This is largely due in part to some hypersensitivity given the recent rainfall yesterday and really over the last week. FFG guidance for much of the area in the 1, 3, and 6 hr time windows remains less than 1" with PWATS ahead of the front approaching 2". Rain rates of 1-2"+/hr are possible with storms as they pass through. The good news is that storms will be progressive given the amplified shear across the region.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 433 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Eastern Maryland Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will spread eastward across the watch area through the afternoon. The strongest cells will be capable of localized damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Philadelphia PA to 55 miles southeast of Washington DC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1201 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016-503>508-VAZ053-054-505-506-526-527- 190000- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0016.250618T1700Z-250619T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 1201 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Including the following , District of Columbia, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford and Southern Baltimore, in Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Northwest Prince William and Western Loudoun. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon through early this evening. Some thunderstorms will produce heavy rainfall with amounts around 1 to 2 inches within an hour. Localized amounts up to 3 inches are possible in the strongest storms. The heavy amounts of rain in a short period of time may lead to rapid rises of creeks and streams out of their banks as well as potential flash flooding in urban areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. &&

Borrowed from @WxWatcher007

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1344.html Mesoscale Discussion 1344 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic States Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181536Z - 181730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds should increase this afternoon as isolated to scattered thunderstorms form off parts of the Blue Ridge towards coastal New Jersey and Delaware. Area is being monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch with uncertainty on overall coverage/intensity for severe gusts. An upgrade to Slight Risk is likely with the 1630Z Day 1 Outlook. DISCUSSION...Initial low-topped convection has been slowly bubbling across far northern VA and the eastern WV Panhandle. Airmass immediately downstream appears uncapped per mesoanalysis and modified 12Z soundings, where surface temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s. 12Z guidance is consistent in suggesting isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing within a region of enhanced 700-500 mb west-southwesterlies. This should provide sufficient speed shear for a few transient cells with mid-level rotation. With poor mid-level lapse rates, hail magnitudes should remain small. But if stratus across the northern Chesapeake/Delaware Bays vicinity can break up this afternoon, a greater than isolated damaging wind threat may be realized. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39067797 39677750 40097619 40037514 39707417 39247463 38967537 38627599 38577660 38597727 38767779 39067797 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

From this mornings HWO from LWX about the upcoming heat An extended period of excessively hot and humid conditions is expected Sunday through at least the middle of next week. Daily heat indices in the afternoon and evening of 100 to 110 are expected, and up to 115 degrees is possible.

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 908 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 MDZ003-501-502-509-510-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-053-501>508-526- 527-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-172115- /O.EXT.KLWX.FA.A.0015.250617T1800Z-250618T0200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Washington-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah- Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison- Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Fairfax-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral- Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 908 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of Maryland, including the following areas, Central and Eastern Allegany, Eastern Garrett, Extreme Western Allegany, Washington and Western Garrett, Virginia, including the following areas, Albemarle, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Clarke, Culpeper, Eastern Highland, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Frederick VA, Greene, Madison, Nelson, Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Northwest Prince William, Orange, Page, Rappahannock, Rockingham, Shenandoah, Southern Fauquier, Warren, Western Highland and Western Loudoun, and West Virginia, including the following areas, Berkeley, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Eastern Pendleton, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson, Morgan, Western Grant, Western Mineral and Western Pendleton. * WHEN...From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers are likely with scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms will contain heavy rainfall, with rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches in an hour or two. Storms may also train over the same areas causing the possibility of locally higher amounts around 3 to 5 inches. Heavy rain in a short period of time may cause rapid rises in creeks and streams as well as potential flash flooding in urban areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 908 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 DCZ001-MDZ004-013-503-504-VAZ054-172115- /O.EXB.KLWX.FA.A.0015.250617T2100Z-250618T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Prince Georges-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- 908 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, the following in Maryland, Montgomery, Frederick MD, and Prince Georges, and the following in northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria. * WHEN...From 5 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers are likely with scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms will contain heavy rainfall, with rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches in an hour or two. Storms may also train over the same areas causing the possibility of locally higher amounts around 3 to 5 inches. Heavy rain in a short period of time may cause rapid rises in creeks and streams as well as potential flash flooding in urban areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

2% tor added on 1300z SPC OTLK for today

On Monday of next week we will be asking for these days back lol

MRGL/MRGL/SLGT the next 3 days. BTW, what do you consider us as? Northern MA or southern MA? Reading the Day 3 morning disco, they were kind of splitting up the areas for best chance of all hazards severe on Thursday. They said Northern Mid-Atlantic had the better chance for all hazards while southern was more a damaging winds threat

Wiz is headed to SE VT on Thursday afternoon on the 12z NAM

It will be at the very end of its range, but I'm curious to see what the 12z NAM comes up with Thursday afternoon into the evening

Day 5 outlooked from SPC

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1007 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 VAC137-177-150245- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-250615T0245Z/ Orange VA-Spotsylvania VA- 1007 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM EDT FOR EASTERN ORANGE AND NORTH CENTRAL SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTIES... At 1007 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 12 miles northwest of Spotsylvania, or 14 miles west of Fredericksburg, moving southeast at 10 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Lake Of The Woods, Chancellorsville, Cookstown, Parker, and Flat Run. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1011 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled frontal boundary will continue to oscillate over the region through the weekend bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity will be tied to the afternoon and evening hours with flash flooding and locally damaging winds as the primary threats. The front lifts north as a warm front Tuesday into Wednesday with a strong cold front expected to cross late next week. Temperatures will remain at or above average through the period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A stationary front is currently positioned over the northern DC metro. This boundary will become the focus for the development of heavy showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and into this evening. Based on morning HiRes guidance, we have expanded the Flood Watch for flash flooding to the NE to include parts of the Baltimore metro along with parts of northern MD and eastern panhandle of WV. The environment this afternoon and into afternoon will be favorable for efficient rainfall with PW`s approaching 2 inches this afternoon and saturated through much atmospheric column. This environment will be favorable for hourly rain rates between 2 to 4 inches being possible with instantaneous rain rates approaching 6 inches per hour possible.