yoda

1300z SPC OTLK update Mid-Atlantic states into Carolinas... A less focused and more conditional severe risk seems evident for the Carolinas later this afternoon and northward into the Mid-Atlantic states this evening as the upper trough encroaches on the general region. A broad warm-air advection regime north of the FL/GA early-day MCS will slowly destabilize today, aided in part by lower 60 deg F dewpoints north, mid to upper 60s south. Long hodographs will favor storm organization with any robust updrafts. Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of a threat for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible, mainly over parts of western VA, with lower coverage expected farther east over the coastal plain/Delmarva.

Morning AFD from LWX on the threat The upper trough will take on a negative tilt as it moves overhead tonight. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it tracks into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to form within the zone of strong forcing for ascent ahead of the negatively tilted trough across OH/WV/SW VA late this afternoon into early this evening. These storms should initially reach far southwestern portions of the forecast area during the late evening, before progressing northeastward across the remainder of the forecast area between 10 PM and 4 AM. Instability will increase through the evening as a low level mass response occurs ahead of the approaching trough. CAPE values are expected to increase to around 300-600 J/kg across much of the area. When coupled with an impressive low- level jet and ample deep layer shear present, some of the storms this evening into the overnight may be on the strong to severe side. Damaging winds should be the primary threat, but a brief tornado can`t be ruled out given the strong low-level jet, 0-1 km SRH values increasing to around 200-300 m2/s2, and STP values climbing above 1. Weak stabilization evident on forecast soundings right near the surface may potentially serve as a limiting factor for both the damaging wind and tornado potential. SPC currently has locations to the west of the Blue Ridge outlooked in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, while locations to the east of the Blue Ridge are in a Marginal Risk.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians this afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into northern Florida, mainly this morning through early afternoon. ...Synopsis... 04 UTC surface observations depict a diffuse surface low over the lower MS River Valley. This low is forecast to deepen over the next 24 hours as it lifts northward into the OH Valley/Great Lakes region in tandem with the phasing of an amplified upper-level trough over the MS Valley with an approaching upstream perturbation. A surface cold front currently draped across southeast LA will surge to the east/northeast as the low deepens, and should act to focus thunderstorm development through the late morning and afternoon hours across both the upper OH Valley and Southeast. ...Upper OH River Valley... Recent 925/850 mb analyses and surface observations show a consolidating warm frontal zone draped from the surface low over the lower MS Valley into the upper OH River Valley. The surface low will deepen along this corridor amid a combination of strong height falls and ascent within the left-exit region of a mid-level jet. A plume of low to mid-60s dewpoints will advect northward with the deepening low, establishing a focused warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front by early afternoon across parts of KY, OH, and WV. The current expectation is for sufficient destabilization within the warm sector to support surface-based convection by the 18-21 UTC time frame. A combination of strong synoptic-scale ascent and 40-50 knot deep-layer shear vectors off the cold front should promote a mix of discrete cells and semi-discrete clusters - including the potential for a few supercells. Increasing southeasterly winds through the lowest 1-2 km should yield effective SRH values between 150-300 m2/s2, which will support a tornado threat with the more robust/organized cells as well as a wind threat with more organized clusters. This threat appears greatest across southeast OH into western WV where latest guidance continues to show a focused convective signal. Further to the east into parts of northwest VA, a somewhat weaker convective signal is noted in most CAM guidance, but 50-knot flow in the lowest 2 km will likely pose a substantial wind threat with any storms that can mature. Risk probabilities have been expanded into this region to account for this potential. That said, this scenario appears to be conditional on achieving sufficient low-level warming within the warm sector. While an extensive dry slot is noted in water-vapor imagery across the Mid-South into central IN, the low/mid-level warm advection regime is maintaining mid-level stratus across the region with most ASOS stations reporting overcast skies and ceilings near 6 kft. It is unclear how much clearing will occur through early afternoon given persistent ascent, and a 10 F spread in afternoon high temperatures is noted across OH/WV in recent ensemble guidance. Based on forecast soundings, surface temperatures in the upper 60s may be required to realize 500+ J/kg SBCAPE with minimal inhibition. The median of the temperature distribution appears to reside in the upper 60s, but SBCAPE may still only reach 500-1000 J/kg per ensemble distributions.

SLGT risk moved into most of N VA and C MD on new Day 1 for 15 wind and 5 tornado

Still MRGL on 1730z SPC OTLK... but a small ENH risk was added in E Ohio into West Virginia with 10% tor probs added

Might get a slight risk upgrade at 1730z

Updated morning AFD from LWX now mentions tornado threat SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Rain chances increase further Thursday morning as a frontal system inches closer to the region, but the bulk of precipitation likely arrives Thursday afternoon. Strong southerly winds are expected to develop ahead of the approaching cold front, which could reach 25 to 35 mph or so. The upper trough that is currently digging into the MS River Valley will lift northeastward towards the Great Lakes, becoming negatively-tilted into Thursday evening/night. Given the amount of pre-frontal showers and clouds, instability looks to be hard to come by, especially with the timing looking to be later in the evening into Thursday night. However, given height falls aloft and anomalous low-level moisture, 200-400 J/kg ML/SBCAPE still looks achievable. This, combined with increasing low-level flow to 50+ kts at a few thousand feet AGL (especially late at night Thursday into early Friday morning) could be enough for low-topped convection capable of bringing down damaging wind gusts or spinning up a brief tornado or two. The greatest potential for any severe weather appears to be Thursday night.

SPC AC 100551 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are likely across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity, mainly during Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into central Florida, from Thursday morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone will track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clustering into short-line segments appears likely to develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. MLCAPE should reach 500-1000 J/kg amid a meridional supercell wind profile, before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance supports the potential for a few supercells, with some upscale growth into a line segment as convection consolidates northeastward. This may be relatively short-lived as convection outpaces the weak buoyancy plume and likely weakens after dusk. A mesoscale corridor of greater severe probabilities, seemingly in the form of damaging wind, may be warranted in later outlooks. ...Southeast GA to central FL... Extensive deep convection should be ongoing from north FL into GA at 12Z Thursday. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat during the late morning into about mid-afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across the FL Peninsula. Large-scale ascent will subside with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. ...Carolinas and VA... Overall severe threat appears rather conditional during the daytime hours given extensive convection across at least north FL and GA on Thursday morning. Diabatic surface heating should be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/weak convection north of the deeper convection during the day. Consensus of guidance largely attempts to destabilize on the backside of early-day convection within a plume of at least mid 60s surface dew points. Overall threat will probably consist of sporadic damaging winds and up to a few brief tornadoes within lower-topped convection, mainly from midday through Thursday evening. With the expectation for lesser severe weather coverage relative to areas farther northwest and south, have opted to highlight much of this region with a cat 1-MRGL this cycle. ..Grams.. 04/10/2024

Morning day 2 OTLK from SPC (no hail probs so skipped that image)

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000mawq/executive?utm_medium=email&utm_source=ENS&utm_campaign=realtime

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across parts of the Southeast and the Upper Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough should be centered near the MS Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A steadily deepening surface cyclone should track northeast from the Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. ...Southeast... A convective swath should be ongoing from parts of the FL Panhandle into GA on Thursday morning. The southern portion of this activity will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat from late morning into the early afternoon as stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across FL. Large-scale ascent will weaken with southern extent through the day given the northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. Farther north, fast 850-700 mb winds should be coincident with a plume of mid to upper 60s advecting north into the Carolinas. However, diabatic surface heating may be quite limited by abundant downstream cloudiness/stratiform rain north of the deeper convection in FL. Mid-level lapse rates will also be weak and overall instability may remain meager. Still, the high-shear/low-CAPE setup with at least low-topped convection likely persisting until it progresses off the coast will foster some threat for sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes, mainly midday through early evening. How far north and how long the severe threat persists into Thursday night is unclear, but low probabilities appear warranted through at least the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Upper OH Valley... A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized clusters should develop east of the gradually deepening surface cyclone track. This region should have a period where an overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating cycle, before early afternoon convection develops within the left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast and southern Appalachians. While MLCAPE will remain weak, a meridional supercell wind profile should be present before low-level flow becomes veered from the southwest. A couple tornadoes, isolated to scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible. ..Grams.. 04/09/2024

LWX AFD from this afternoon mentions the severe threat LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Potent low pressure in the southern stream will begin to phase with northern stream energy as it tracks through the Midwest into the Great Lakes Thursday, before moving into Canada Thursday night into Friday. A strong cold front associated with this system will approach the area Thursday before most likely passing through late Thursday through Thursday night. A strong southerly flow ahead of the system will allow for plenty of moisture to advect into the area, causing widespread showers to develop. There will be some instability, bringing the chance for thunderstorms especially later Thursday into Thursday night (ahead of the cold front). There is still low confidence regarding how unstable it will get since clouds and rain will thwart diabatic heating, but plenty of warm and moist air will cause at least some instability. A line of heavier showers and thunderstorms may develop late Thursday into Thursday night, bringing the threat for damaging wind gusts. This will be dependent on how much instability can develop an whether or not it will be rooted within the boundary layer. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to isolated instances of flooding during this time as well.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern should persist through mid-week before diminishing towards next weekend. Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave trough near the Southwest/Mexico border area at 12Z Tuesday. Non-GFS/GEFS guidance suggest this wave should eject east and amplify as it approaches the Lower MS Valley, before pivoting northeast ahead of a northern-stream shortwave trough digging towards the Upper Midwest. As this likely occurs, extensive convection is expected across the Gulf Coast region. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and fast mid-level flow will support a broad severe weather area for D4/Tuesday across much of central/east TX and LA. Although mid-level lapse rates should be weaker on D5/Wednesday, the amplifying trough and resultant deepening of the surface cyclone, in conjunction with rich boundary-layer moisture, will support a continued severe threat area focused on the Sabine and Lower MS Valleys. D6/Thursday is the lower confidence forecast of the three days, given probable weak mid-level lapse rates with east/north extent. Still, there is enough signal in appreciable boundary-layer heating in the Southeast to warrant a severe area highlight within a highly sheared/weak CAPE environment. Flow fields throughout the troposphere will become quite strong across an even broader area farther north both east and west of the Appalachians. 00Z ECMWF ensemble data indicates a decent amount spread in timing/amplitude of the surface cyclone in the OH Valley/Midwest by Thursday, within a probable low CAPE environment. An area-of-interest for a future severe area highlight is evident in this region and into parts of the Northeast late Thursday or D7 Friday. ..Grams.. 04/06/2024

Good luck! My mom and sister are going up to Amherst in W NY (right by Buffalo). I have to stay here for work stuff

Well the 40s does. The clouds and rain return Wednesday

Big game tonight... let's go Penguins!

Orange peels blocking the sun?

Mesoscale Discussion 0368 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northern NC into VA...MD...and DE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031520Z - 031715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, a few tornadoes and perhaps some hail should gradually increase over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance will probably be needed. DISCUSSION...15Z surface observations show a front draped southwest to northeast across VA into MD/DE, with a surface low centered over southwest VA. This low is forecast to slowly deepen as it develops northeastward along the front towards central VA/MD by late this afternoon. Although clouds remain widespread across much of the Mid-Atlantic, a moist and gradually destabilizing airmass is present along/south of the front into NC. A lobe of ascent associated with the left exit region of a strong upper-level jet and a mid-level vorticity maximum over the central Appalachians will likely encourage additional convective development in the next 1-2 hours across western into central VA. This activity will likely become organized, with the potential for a mix of small bowing clusters and supercells possible given the presence of very strong deep-layer shear. Instability may tend to remain fairly muted given the widespread cloud cover. Still, MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg should eventually develop with continued low-level warming/moistening, and given steepened mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z RNK sounding. Damaging winds will be possible with any robust cluster that can develop and track northeastward. A tornado threat should exist with any supercell, as 0-1 km shear of 35-40 kt and ample effective SRH should encourage low-level updraft rotation. Isolated hail may also occur with any convection that can remain semi-discrete. Given expectations for a gradually increasing severe threat in the next 1-2 hours, watch issuance will probably be needed. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

Sounds like a Tornado Watch coming soon per MCD

It's snow time! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1113 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 MDZ001-VAZ503-WVZ501-505-032315- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0014.240404T1200Z-240405T0400Z/ Garrett-Western Highland-Western Grant-Western Pendleton- 1113 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations ranging from 4 to 6 inches above 3,500 feet, 2 to 4 inches between 2,500 and 3,500 feet, and a coating to an inch or two below 2,500 feet. Additional snow accumulation is expected overnight Thursday through Friday. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From 8 AM Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact morning and evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for rapidly changing conditions with bursts of heavier snow showers and snow squalls. Visibility will rapidly drop below one-quarter mile at times with roads changing from wet to snow covered at times. The most impacts will be above 2,500 feet in elevation. Interstate 68 will be impacted by this. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

Winter Storm Warning up for Snowshoe... 4 to 6 inches expected

Surprising the sun has appeared here

SLGT still up on 1300z SPC OTLK Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states to Florida. Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for a tornado or two are the primary hazards. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the coastal Carolinas and GA/FL... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a deep-layer cyclone centered over southern Lake Michigan and this feature will slowly migrate east into OH during the period. Occluded low over southern Great Lakes will slowly fill as a secondary cyclone deepens as it moves from NC/VA this morning to south/east of Long Island late tonight. A cold front will sweep east across the Southeast and through much of the FL Peninsula. Strong to severe thunderstorm activity this morning concentrated over the FL Panhandle and southern GA will continue to progress east to the immediate southeast of an intense mid-level speed max over the southern Appalachians. The airmass south and east of the front in north FL and southern GA will slowly heat/destabilize today despite relatively poor 850-500 mb lapse rates (reference 10z Cape Canaveral and 12z Tampa and Jacksonville raobs). Strengthening and gradually veering flow with height will support organized line segments and occasional supercell structures embedded within the convective band. A tornado or two and damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger activity through midday. As this activity pushes southeastward over north FL into the central part of the Peninsula this afternoon, wind damage will likely become the primary severe hazard of concern. Farther north, strong mid-level height falls and the aforementioned deepening of the low will invoke a strong mass response across the Mid-Atlantic states. Relatively rich low-level moisture over NC this morning (low to mid 60s surface dewpoints) will advance northward in tandem with a warm front as the low develops northeast during the day. Model guidance indicates a band of scattered thunderstorms will develop over central VA by early afternoon and move east towards the coast. A few of the stronger storms will potentially evolve into supercells and/or organized line segments with damaging gusts/tornado as the main threats. Farther south over central NC into northeast SC, some stabilizing influence from early morning convection (reference the 12z Charleston raob) and large-scale ascent focusing farther north lends uncertainty on coverage/magnitude of the severe risk near/south of VA/NC border. Have lowered severe probabilities in parts of NC/SC to account for this observational trend and forecast scenario.

SLGT risk of severe today from the BR and east... MRGL from just east of the i81 corridor to BR 2/15/15... but 5 tor probs for S MD Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible on today from the Mid-Atlantic to Florida. Primary hazard is damaging gusts, but isolated hail and a tornado or two is also possible. Isolated hail and a strong gust or two are also possible from southeast Oregon into central Idaho. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to deepen/mature as it moves slowly eastward on today. Strong upper/mid-level flow will accompany this cyclone, with 120 kt of 500 mb flow extending throughout its eastern periphery from the Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic States during the afternoon and evening. Occluded surface low associated with this system currently over southern Lake Michigan will drift slowly eastward beneath the upper cyclone. A secondary triple point low is currently developing to the southeast of the occluded low, and this low will likely be over the southwest VA vicinity later this morning. Expectation is for this low to progress northeastward throughout the day, while the cold front that extends southward from this low sweeps eastward. Farther west, a deepening upper trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early Thursday morning. Enhanced southwesterly flow preceding this trough will spread gradually eastward across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. ...Mid-Atlantic southeastward to Florida... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front mentioned in the synopsis, from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the eastern FL Panhandle. Air mass preceding this front will be characterized by ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s), but poor lapse rates and relatively modest buoyancy. In contrast, robust wind fields will support strong vertical shear, with 0-6 km bulk shear likely around 60 to 70 kt. Consequently, even with limited buoyancy, a few stronger storms embedded within the broader convective line are possible. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk, but isolated marginal hail and/or a brief tornado are also possible. The land area ahead of the front will be limited across GA and the Carolinas where the outflow-augmented front will likely push offshore by the early afternoon. Farther north in the Mid-Atlantic, additional storm development is possible near the surface low during the afternoon as moist southerly low-level flow facilitates air mass destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. Kinematic fields will remain very strong, and these storms will likely pose a severe risk as they move rapidly northeastward. Damaging gusts are the primary risk, but a tornado or two is possible as well.