yoda

Afternoon AFD from LWX DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front pushes across the forecast area Monday, bringing gusty winds and potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing significant damaging winds and tornadoes. Surface high pressure shifts eastward over New England a CAD wedge bringing cooler conditions and cloudy skies to those east of the Blue Ridge. Southerly flow increases moisture in the atmosphere, with light rain showers observed on KLWX radar as of 3PM. Precipitation chances continue increasing as a potent low pressure system traverses across the Great Lakes into Canada, pushing the associated fronts across the Mid- Atlantic. The associated warm front lifts through the area overnight. A band of showers accompanies this warm frontal passage tonight. This comes with low clouds and continued breezy southeasterly winds. Depending on how quickly this boundary can lift north of the area, some residual stratus may linger across the Mid- Atlantic region on Monday morning. These should gradually scour out though ahead of the powerful cold front off to the west. Once this occurs, a more robust pre- frontal southerly wind overspreads the region. Outside of any thunderstorms, expect southerly gusts to around 25 to 35 mph, locally nearing 45 to 50 mph in the mountains. Gradient winds ahead of the front increase with a Wind Advisory in effect for the higher elevations on Monday. Wind gusts up to 55 mph are possible along the ridges. As an upper low gradually closes off near Lake Michigan, a shortwave begins to sharpen over the Mid-South midday Monday. As this trough pivots toward the East Coast, it begins to attain a negative tilt which will be conducive to further strengthening of the frontal system. Based on the forecast parameter spaces, the resultant severe weather aspect has a rather high ceiling in terms of impacts. Consequently, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded to a quite rare Day 2 Moderate Risk area, mainly along and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. This is largely driven by the potential of widespread damaging winds, some of which could be significant in nature, as well as a tornado risk. Once any earlier low stratus are scoured out, expect ample diurnal heating as temperatures rise into the upper 60s to low 70s. Prolonged south to southeasterly flow should also raise dew points into the upper 50s to low 60s. The seasonably warm/moist low-levels coupled by strong forcing aloft and cyclonic turning of the winds with height will make for a very active convective day. While the degree of vertical shear is impressive on its own (0-6 km values around 55 to 65 knots), this comes with more than sufficient buoyancy levels as surface-based CAPE values push into the 500 to 750 J/kg range. The shear/instability combination will be conducive to supercell development, particularly for any discrete cells that form ahead of a likely squall line. Additionally, the degree of deep-layer shear should make this more of a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) which will be capable of tornadogenesis. Aside from any tornado risk, the strong cloud-bearing level winds should easily mix down in convective downdrafts. With 850-700 mb winds around 60-70 knots, any of this higher momentum air being transferred to the surface could yield surface wind gusts into the 65 to 75 mph range. Thus, SPC has a broad area of significant damaging wind potential (45-74%) advertised from I-81 eastward in their latest outlook. With high-resolution models showing 3 to 6 hour differences in convective timing, there is still some uncertainty in how this all plays out. Most of the uncertainty is in regards to specific timing and instability potential. However, expect to be on alert for active weather from early Monday afternoon through much of the evening. All related activity races off to the east, some of which may be comprised of storm elements tracking eastward on the order of 45 to 50 mph. While not everyone sees a severe thunderstorm, the overall spatial coverage should be higher than normal. By Monday night, a post-frontal air mass pushes across the region with a rapid cool down in temperatures. This will lead to some upslope aided snow showers along/west of the Allegheny Front. Depending on how much moisture can be advected off the unfrozen portions of the Great Lakes, around 1 to 3 inches are possible through early Tuesday. Some global models show these spilling off the mountains toward the urban corridors. As such, will maintain light snow accumulations for locations east of the Allegheny Front.

High risk

https://x.com/JBuchinskyWX/status/2033233276844773694

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND WASHINGTON D.C... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe storms are anticipated on Monday across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Tornadoes, some strong, and particularly damaging winds are most likely from parts of South Carolina to Maryland during the afternoon. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper trough from WI to the Ark-La-Tex will further amplify as the basal portion pivots rapidly northeastward towards the Appalachians. A deep surface cyclone over Lower MI will progress into QC, with an occluded front arcing southward to a minor low over western to central NY by Monday afternoon. A sharp cold front will extend south of this low across the Southeast into the northeast Gulf, sweeping east across the entire Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z Tuesday. ...East... No change has been made to the ongoing level 4-MDT risk, with some expansion of the 3-ENH in GA, as well as expansions of 1-2/MRGL-SLGT across NY and FL. The highly meridional deep-layer flow regime suggests that surface-based instability appears more likely to develop into NY on Monday afternoon. This type of flow regime, along with substantial early-day convection south, both render some uncertainty on intensity amplitudes for wind/tornado across much of the ENH-MDT risk areas. A broken band of pre-frontal convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday from the lee of the southern Appalachians to the FL Panhandle. The downstream environment will already be favorable for supercells including strong tornado potential. With mid to upper 60s surface dew points and initially modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, a plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg should diurnally expand from north FL through at least SC. Any semi-discrete supercells in this environment will have the potential to produce a strong tornado and large hail through early afternoon before large-scale outflow likely shifts offshore of the GA/north FL coast. Destabilization farther north from NC to the DE Valley appears more uncertain, with potential for near-coastal convection within the low-level warm conveyor limiting more expansive/robust boundary-layer heating. A plume of weak MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg should still develop across the Piedmont into parts of the coastal plain. Although flow fields will be highly meridional, they will be quite strong with an intense 700-mb jet strengthening across the Southeast behind the surface cold front. This will yield enlarged low-level hodograph curvature across much of the pre-frontal warm-moist sector. Even weak boundary-layer heating will be sufficient for intensification of an extensive QLCS from western to central portions of NY/PA southward through VA/NC towards midday/early afternoon. Embedded supercell structures should be most pronounced south, where breaks in the QLCS are more probable. Some of these could be long-track with sporadic strong tornadoes, in addition to the background widespread damaging winds anticipated with the QLCS. This activity will eventually interact with cool trajectories near the coastal Atlantic and should result in waning of severe potential in the Northeast near sunset. ..Grams.. 03/15/2026

And now it's time for pressing the refresh button for the 1730z SPC OTLK lol

I nominate @high risk to replace Ellinwood

Eskimo Joe has been in... so I think we are at the top rung lol

Well i guess we have a new weenie record in WI It's also on here for now - https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=mpx

Made it on here for now too lol https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=mpx

Alright, who decided to do a funny?

Cross posting in here for @Mrs.J

Updraft Helicity Index

Cross posting in here

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe storms are forecast on Monday for parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Tornadoes, potentially strong, and particularly damaging winds are most likely from South Carolina into Maryland during the afternoon. Significant severe storm potential overall will extend from eastern Georgia/Florida Panhandle into Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A large and deepening upper trough will pivot northeastward out of the OH/TN Valleys, across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic on Monday, while a surface low deepens into southern Quebec. A sharp pre-frontal trough will extend southward across NY, PA, and into the Carolinas/GA by late afternoon, with a corridor of significant pressure falls timed with the diurnal heating maximum. A cold front will push rapidly east across GA and the FL Panhandle during the day with a bit slower progress across the Piedmont and into PA. Gusty south winds ahead of the cold front will maintain 60s F dewpoints across the entire region, and as far north as southern PA, just after warm front passage by late afternoon. Just above the surface, southerly 850 mb winds will increase from 50 to 75 kt, resulting in extreme shear profiles over a large area. Large-scale ascent and shear will increase coincident with the peak heating hours, resulting in a potentially widespread severe weather event during the afternoon. ...From Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Early day storms may be ongoing from the southern Appalachians toward the FL Panhandle Monday morning, and the environment will already be favorable for supercells including tornado potential. Forecast soundings indicate substantial instability with mid to perhaps upper 60s F along with ample shear. These storms may also produce hail, as midlevel lapse rates approach 7 C/km. ...Carolinas into MD/PA and vicinity... Areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual destabilization over the entire area. As the surface trough deepens, low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day. Supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold front from SC into NC and southern VA. Models vary with degree of instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective SRH of at least 300-400 m2/s2. Fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest a long tracked tornado will be possible. Meanwhile, a robust line of storms will develop as the cold front pushes east, stretching from the Carolinas to southern NY. With a moist air mass and large-scale support, this line is expected to produce particularly damaging winds, along with QLCS tornadoes across the remainder of SC/NC, VA, MD, and much of southern PA. This will likely peak during the late afternoon hours. The activity may eventually interact with cool trajectories off the Atlantic during the evening. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2026

Oh

Which using the new tables, means CIG 1 60 or CIG 2 45

I'd think so as well, but wouldn't be surprised if they go mod for wind in the morning update.

Question is will it be the morning or the afternoon day 2 lol

You beat me to my edit lol. I only went by the main page which showed mdt https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/

There was a high risk that day in NC... mod risk was south of the LWX CWA looks like https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20110416

Up close look (h/t @canderson)

Oh my Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SC TO SOUTHERN PA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to widespread severe storms are likely on Monday for parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. The greatest potential for strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds appears centered on parts of South Carolina to Maryland during the late morning to afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic and Southeast... Primary changes this outlook are to add a 45 total severe probability along with minor northeast and southeast expansion to the categorical risk areas. Portions of the region, centered on SC to MD, may warrant an upgrade to a level 4/Moderate Risk in later outlooks. A large and deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward out of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with an expansive area of strong to intense wind fields aloft. A deep cyclone will move from Lower MI into QC, with an occluding cold front arcing southeast across the northern Appalachians, then south-southwest into the northern Gulf. This front will clear all but the FL Peninsula by Monday evening. Ahead of the front, seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized by 60s surface dew points will spread northward from the eastern Gulf/western Atlantic. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Monday, low-topped along the Upper OH Valley to central Appalachian portion of the front to deep convection in the lee of the southern Appalachians to eastern FL Panhandle. A diurnal uptick in storm intensity, including potential for semi-discrete supercells ahead of the front, should occur from north FL to the Carolina Piedmont. Further intensification is anticipated midday into the afternoon as a confined corridor of moderate buoyancy likely develops just ahead of morning storms. Enlarged low-level hodograph curvature, in conjunction with favorable elongation of the mid/upper hodograph, should foster a mix of broken supercells south with line-embedded supercells in the reinvigorated QLCS north. With such intense 700-mb flow aptly timed with the diurnal heating cycle overlying rich low-level moisture, setup could yield an expansive severe weather day, including strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds. The degree of boundary-layer heating, as well as timing of convection that may outpace the front late D2 into early D3, will play key roles in how intense severe magnitudes may become. At present, the most likely corridor for significant/widespread severe appears centered on the eastern Piedmont to coastal plain from SC to MD around midday into the afternoon. ..Grams.. 03/14/2026

Oh snap @Kmlwx @wxmeddler @high risk @Eskimo Joe

Afternoon day 3 from SPC