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Commanders

Also TOG over Fayetteville Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1204 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026 NCC051-111615- /O.COR.KRAH.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-261011T1615Z/ Cumberland NC- 1204 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY... At 1203 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Fayetteville, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornado will be near... Fayetteville around 1210 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Bonnie Doone. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

That better?

Atmosphere must slowly be saturating as it has been sprinkling here... car has rain drops on it

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 300 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026 .Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected as the remnants of Isaias track across the region starting early Sunday morning. Storms should be highly efficient rainfall producers given the tropical nature of the air mass. In particular, the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge have the potential to see the most rainfall given the continued easterly upslope winds. A further eastward expansion of these watches may be needed. VAZ036>040-050-051-501-502-507-508-110300- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0018.261011T0900Z-261012T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Airlie, Greenfield, Madison Run, Nasons, Orange, Fordsville, Washington, Rapidan, Charlottesville, Twymans Mill, Stevensburg, Cardova, Montebello, Bethel, Madison Mills, Hackleys Crossroads, Overton, Culpeper, Five Forks, Rock Mills, Unionville, Catalpa, Warrenton, Chester Gap, Reva, Everona, Burr Hill, Flint Hill, Lahore, Turnbull, Winston, Castleton, Skyland, and Shady Grove 300 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and northwest Virginia, including the following areas, in central Virginia, Albemarle, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Greene, Nelson and Orange. In northern Virginia, Culpeper, Northern Fauquier and Southern Fauquier. In northwest Virginia, Madison, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Rappahannock. * WHEN...From late tonight through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - The remnants of Isaias will bring a tropical air mass much into the Mid-Atlantic region late tonight into Sunday. Storms should be highly efficient in this environment and capable of producing several inches of rain throughout the duration of the event. Storm total rainfall is expected to be around 2 to 3 inches, with pockets of 3 to 5 inches along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/50147669/sources-ravens-held-cam-jurgens-physical-trade-eagles Expected to play next week, not this Sunday

Morning AFD from LWX DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remnants of Hurricane Isaias to bring rain, breezy to windy conditions, and the threat of tornadoes Sunday. Hurricane Isaias is forecast to move north toward the TN Valley today as it weakens and eventually loses all of its tropical characteristics. The mid-level circulation strengthens and becomes a large cutoff low later tonight. To the east, surface high pressure over the Northeast today moves offshore off southern New England tonight. The interaction of Isaias` remnants to the west and surface high to the east will create a large area of convergence / broad frontal zone over the Mid-Atlantic. There is good model agreement that rain steadily moves from south to north this evening into tonight as forcing for ascent increases with some mid-level height falls in response to the approaching cutoff low. It`ll take a bit of time for the surface to truly saturate, so any rain late afternoon to this evening in Central Virginia is going to be light. Eventually, tropical moisture with PWATs at or above 2" surges in after midnight. It is worth mentioning again that conditions are favorable for a widespread soaking rain, and 00Z models have responded with more QPF across the region. Forcing for ascent increases tonight, and especially Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon as mid-level heights fall with the approach of the cutoff low. Enhanced low-level convergence and moisture transport will peak Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. Strengthening easterly flow into the Blue Ridge could also produce enhanced rain amounts due to orographic effects. As a result, forecast rain amounts have increased to 1.5- 2.5", with locally higher amounts of 3-4" possible. No Flood Watch issued with this forecast update as the heaviest rain is forecast to occur in areas that can handle it, but will continue to monitor the latest guidance today. Another noticeable trend in the 00Z guidance is the higher probabilities for severe weather Sunday afternoon. The main synoptically forced rain moves north of the area early Sunday afternoon. Rapid height-falls and increasing low-level winds provide a few hour window where some breaks in the clouds area possible, leading to pockets of instability. A surface wave of low pressure moves right through our area Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate large, swooping hodographs, with ample shear in place to support organized severe convection. Clusters of thunderstorms develop along the leading edge of the surface low pressure, with tornadoes and damaging wind gusts as the main threats (looks mostly to be east of the Blue Ridge). The NAM12, RRFS, and 06Z HRRR all show this scenario. The big question still remains how much instability actually develops. SPC has introduced a Slight Risk for Sunday just to our south, with a Marginal Risk north to the MD/PA border. The strong mid-level circulation is going to bring windy conditions to the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge, starting late tonight into Sunday morning. Wind Advisories have been issued for downsloping easterly winds in the Alleghenies (western Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton Counties), and the Blue Ridge. The current forecast for peak wind gusts is 40-50 mph in the Alleghenies/Blue Ridge and 20-30 mph elsewhere. The remnants of Isaias push offshore Monday, bringing an end to any lingering showers. While conditions return humid and warm Monday, there likely won`t be much in the way of shower activity due to subsidence behind the departing trough.

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 Deep-layer shear from the southwest has increased to 30-40 kt, and the hurricane's structure is responding accordingly. WSR-88D radar data shows that the structure is becoming increasingly asymmetric, with very intense convection mainly confined to the northern eyewall. Tail Doppler radar data from the NOAA P-3 has also shown that the circulation is becoming tilted with height. That said, some impressive winds were measured at flight-level--136 kt by the Air Force Reserve at 10,000 feet and 126 kt by NOAA at 8,000 ft. While these winds themselves would normally support a higher intensity, several dropsondes released in the eyewall showed that there is a sharp drop-off of winds at the ocean surface, with layer-averaging suggesting a surface intensity of 90-95 kt. In addition, recent Doppler radar data from Mobile show winds of 100-110 kt at about 10,000 feet in the northern eyewall. Combining all this data together, the maximum surface winds appear to be around 100 kt, although it's very likely that Isaias will be a gustier-than-normal hurricane when it makes landfall. Isaias has turned northward and is accelerating with a current motion of 010/15 kt. The track guidance has honed in on a landfall over the western Florida Panhandle near the Pensacola area sometime this evening. A northward motion is expected to continue through Saturday, bringing Isaias's center through Alabama, followed by a northeastward trajectory across the Tennessee and the central Appalachians on Sunday. The circulation is expected to dissipate by hour 60. The high-resolution hurricane regional models (HAFS-A, HAFS-B, and HWRF), as well as the statistical-dynamical models (SHIPS and LGEM) indicate that Isaias is likely to be at or near major hurricane strength at landfall this evening. After landfall, fast weakening is expected, with some caveats. As mentioned previously, Isaias is likely to be a gusty hurricane, and its fast motion could bring strong hurricane-force gusts well inland. Simulated satellite imagery from global model guidance indicates that Isaias is likely to transition to a post-tropical cyclone over Alabama by Saturday afternoon, although it could still be producing tropical-storm-force gusts, especially in areas of higher terrain. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida. Residents under evacuation orders should leave immediately and follow advice from local officials. 2. Extremely dangerous and damaging hurricane force-winds are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should have a safe room to ride out the storm and prepare for long-duration power outages. 3. Damaging wind gusts are likely over a large portion of the southeastern United States from western and northern Georgia and the southern Appalachians, westward over much of central and northern Alabama, southern middle Tennessee, and Mississippi, especially in areas of higher terrain. Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid driving high-profile vehicles, prepare for power outages, and be aware of the potential for falling trees. 4. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast through the weekend. Considerable flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding, will be possible. Landslides are also possible across the Southern Appalachians. 5. The tornado potential will continue through tonight. The greatest risk will be east of the center, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. This risk will continue spreading north-northeast across parts of the Southeast on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 29.2N 87.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 31.2N 86.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1800Z 33.4N 87.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 11/0600Z 35.6N 86.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 11/1800Z 38.1N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING QUICKLY WITHIN THE STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS... ...RESIDENTS SHOULD BE SEEKING SAFE SHELTER... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 87.0W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 125 MI...195 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

Tropical Storm Warning issued to the US/MX border for Rachel... TS watch still remains at 5pm for S CA BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 124.0W ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Baja California, from San Jose de Las Palomas northward to the U.S./Mexico Border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California, from San Jose de Las Palomas northward to the U.S./Mexico Border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern California coast from the U.S/Mexico Border northward to the San Diego/Orange County Line * East coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to Puerto Penasco A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in northern Baja California, northern Gulf of California, and Southern California should continue to monitor the progress of Rachel.

Afternoon AFD from LWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 245 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added a mention of possible gale conditions over the lower Chesapeake Bay on Sunday as a result of passing remnants of Hurricane Isaias. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Remnants of Hurricane Isaias to bring rain, breezy conditions Sunday into Sunday night. - 2) No hazardous weather expected next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remnants of Hurricane Isaias to bring rain, breezy conditions Sunday into Sunday night. The pattern remains quiet through the first half of the weekend as surface high pressure strengthens over the northeastern U.S. However, this lengthy period of tranquil weather will come to an end as this ridge retreats northward ahead of Isaias. Until then, a thick area of high cirrus should continue to track poleward. Daily highs will be in the low/mid 70s, with 60s across mountain locations. The main weather impact to the region over the next week is going to be from the remnants of what is now Hurricane Isaias (Cat 3 strength). Model guidance is in generally good agreement that Hurricane Isaias` surface low weakens and broadens as the system moves into the TN Valley Saturday night into Sunday. The mid- level circulation amplifies and becomes a strong cutoff low over KY/TN that moves slowly east across the Mid- Atlantic Sunday into Monday. Periods of rain are likely across the area at times Saturday evening through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are expected across the area. Higher rain totals are certainly possible, but will depend on a few other smaller scale features. Tropical moisture surges north into our area Saturday night into Sunday, with the highest PWAT values at or above 2" (most likely east of the Blue Ridge). While the main cutoff low associated with the remnants of Isaias remain west of the Appalachians on Saturday, expect light rain to move in from south to north in the evening. Forcing for ascent increases Saturday night, and especially Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon as mid-level heights fall with the approach of the cutoff low. There is going to be enhanced low-level convergence somewhere over the region as the surface high to the east and cutoff low to the west interact. Easterly flow into the Blue Ridge could also produce enhanced rain amounts due to orographic effects. Additionally, an inverted trough or wave of low pressure tries to develop in lee of the Appalachians Sunday as it crosses Virginia to the Delmarva. Uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution and timing of these features, which will ultimately determine where / if any locally heavy rain occurs. Continue to monitor the forecast over the next couple of days. No Flood Watches are planned at this time as we are still over 48 hours from the main slug of rain. Additionally, there is a non-zero risk of isolated tornadoes on Sunday. These post-tropical environments can be tricky as low- level spin ups do occur. For now, the Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Day 3 Marginal Risk area. It is going to be noticeably breezy, especially in the mountains where winds begin to pick up Saturday evening. The strongest winds are most likely on Sunday. The current forecast for peak wind gusts is 30-40 mph in the Alleghenies and 20-30 mph elsewhere. Conditions dry out Monday morning into Monday afternoon as the remnants of Isaias push offshore. Looking at mostly mild temperatures for most of next week. A series of cold fronts cross the region during the middle to late part of next week as the synoptic pattern becomes more active. Aside from mountain rain showers, most of the area looks to remain dry. The strongest cold front arrives late next week, possibly bringing rain and colder air behind it.

Huntley in, Lamar out https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/50141743/ravens-qb-lamar-jackson-huntley-start-snf-vs-falcons

Flood Watch National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-049-050-052-053-059-062>065- 501>510-SCZ101>104-100300- /O.NEW.KGSP.FA.A.0003.261010T1200Z-261011T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Yancey-Mitchell- Haywood-Buncombe-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell- Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell- Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Greater Oconee- Including the cities of East Flat Rock, Celo, Ruckersville, Cove Creek, Cullowhee, Black Mountain, Marion, Fletcher, Cornelia, Walhalla, Glassy Mountain, Micaville, Dysartsville, Patterson, Newland, Canon, Cashiers, Boydville, Royston, Sylva, Little River, Canton, Fortsonia, Chimney Rock State Park, Sugar Hill, Hollywood, Ashford, Gumlog, Glenwood, Oakway, Hartwell, Hendersonville, Sawmills, Waynesville, Cedar Mountain, Swiss, Elberton, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Forest City, Demorest, Valdese, Jonas Ridge, Ingalls, Lenoir, Tuxedo, Rocky Bottom, Busick, Brevard, Asheville, Etowah, Pleasant Grove, Old Fort, Nuberg, Banner Elk, Woodlawn, Nebo, Seneca, Toccoa, Poplar, Baldwin, Mountain Rest, Westminster, Kings Creek, Ramseytown, Columbus, Clarkesville, Dana, Cruso, Granite Falls, Waterville, Fero, Saluda, Burnsville, Reed Creek, Morganton, Rutherfordton, Mountain City, Middleton, Tuckasegee, Pine Mountain, Clayton, Franklin Springs, Candler, Lavonia, Tryon, Rainbow Springs, Mill Spring, Franklin, Spruce Pine, Spindale, and Kyle 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of northeast Georgia, including the following counties, Elbert, Franklin, Habersham, Hart, Rabun and Stephens; portions of western North Carolina, including the following counties, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, Macon, McDowell, Mitchell, Polk, Rutherford, Transylvania and Yancey; portions of Upstate South Carolina, including Oconee County, and mountainous northern portions of Pickens and Greenville Counties. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - As Isaias weakens and moves northward through the Mid-South early Saturday, rain will become increasingly likely across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Periods of rain may begin over the watch area prior to dawn Saturday, though rainfall rates will initially be light. Rainfall rates will increase during the day, and heavy rain is most likely Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning, particularly along the south and east facing Blue Ridge Escarpment, that is, near the southern border of North Carolina west of I-26, and in the sharp terrain from near Saluda to Grandfather Mountain in North Carolina. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch for flash flooding means there is a potential for rapid onset flooding based on current forecasts. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation and may impact areas that do not typically flood. Please monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared to take action quickly should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Rainfall of more than five inches in similar storms has been associated with an increased risk of landslides and rockslides. If you live on a mountainside or in a cove at the base of a mountain, especially near a stream, be ready to leave in advance of the storm or as quickly as possible should rising water, moving earth, or rocks threaten. Consider postponing travel along mountain roads during periods of heavy rainfall.

Wind gust forecast starting to rise across the region for Sunday... now 30 to 35 mph.

BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 100 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DEVASTATING WINDS SHOULD BE COMPLETED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 87.2W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

Flood Watch National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 143 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ015>017-032-101000- /O.NEW.KRNK.FA.A.0009.261010T1500Z-261012T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd- Patrick- Including the cities of Whitetop, Dobson, Galax, Troutdale, Stuart, West Jefferson, Boone, Floyd, Wilkesboro, Sparta, Independence, and Volney 143 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of North Carolina, including the following areas, Alleghany NC, Ashe, Surry, Watauga and Wilkes and southwest Virginia, including the following areas, Carroll, Floyd, Grayson and Patrick. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Upslope rainfall from a rather strong southeasterly Low level jet from the remnants of Isaias will bring increased precipitation along the crest of the southern Blue Ridge from Floyd county extending southwestward towards Watauga county. Widespread rainfall totals of 2-4 inches with locally higher totals in the 5-6 range will be possible, especially for areas like Meadows of Dan, Boone, and Blowing Rock. These higher totals may lead to isolated instances of landslides along slopes that have been modified by humans like embankments or cut slopes. These areas may also see increased rises on local streamflows that may lead to flooding across low-water crossings. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Rachel Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 50 National Weather Service San Diego CA EP182026 759 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 CAZ050-092300- /O.NEW.KSGX.TR.A.2018.261009T1459Z-000000T0000Z/ San Diego County Valleys- 759 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Escondido - El Cajon - Lakeside - Poway * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 10-15 mph with gusts to 30 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted, especially in coastal and valley locations that don`t typically experience strong winds. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: around 1 inch - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Heavy rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues, especially in and below recently burned areas. - Rivers may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, arroyos, and ditches overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds may still occur. - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest tornado situation. - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - sdcountyemergency.com

Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026 Satellite images indicate that Rachel is struggling to maintain deep convection, with only limited and shallow convection remaining near the center of circulation. A scatterometer pass received shortly after the previous advisory indicated peak winds of around 43 kt. Satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 31 to 44 kt, while the TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate is T2.5/35 kt. Given the scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. The storm is moving northeastward at an estimated 055/4 kt. A deepening mid-to upper-level trough moving into the eastern Pacific toward the western United States is expected to steer Rachel northeastward to north-northeastward with an increasing forward speed throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move inland over northern Baja California late Saturday or early Sunday before continuing northeastward into the southwestern United States on Sunday. There has been a northward shift in the latest track guidance, with the global and hurricane regional models now bringing the center near the U.S./Mexico border or into extreme southern California. The latest NHC track forecast has been nudged northward and lies between the global and regional hurricane models to the left, and the HCCA and GDMI slightly to the right. Given this track forecast, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of northern Baja California and southern California. There will be a sharp gradient in the wind field, with the strongest winds anticipated to remain primarily in the eastern and southern semicircles of the circulation. Rachel remains embedded within a very dry air mass, with mid-level relative humidity values in the lower 30 percent range. Sea surface temperatures of around 24-25C will also limit convective organization. However, interaction with the aforementioned deepening trough is expected to increase mid-level moisture and improve upper-level divergence, allowing Rachel to produce intermittent bursts of deep convection and maintain tropical cyclone status. Furthermore, there are anomalously warm waters just offshore of northern Baja California for this time of year, running roughly 6-7C above normal. There has been a notable upward trend in the intensity guidance from the global and regional models this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. As the system approaches the coast, increasing vertical wind shear is expected to displace the remaining convection downshear toward the northeastern portion of the circulation. Rachel is forecast to remain a strong tropical storm as it makes landfall. Once inland, rapid weakening is expected, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical over the southwestern United States. The latest NHC intensity forecast lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope, reflecting the complex interactions between Rachel and the approaching trough, as well as the inherent uncertainty in how models handle these processes. Key Messages: 1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of the northern Baja California Peninsula and southern California at tropical storm strength Saturday night, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect from San Jose de Las Palomas, Mexico northward into southern California to the San Diego/Orange County Line. 2. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are expected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, Saturday night and Sunday. 3. Rachel and the moisture associated with the system will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential of flash and urban flooding. 4. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as moderate to isolated major coastal flooding, through early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 22.8N 124.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 23.4N 123.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 25.1N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 28.5N 118.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 33.3N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0000Z 38.1N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 124.6W ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 820 MI...1325 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southern California coast from the U.S/Mexico Border northward to the San Diego/Orange County Line. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Baja California, from San Jose de Las Palomas northward to the U.S./Mexico Border and, the east coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to Puerto Penasco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern California coast from the U.S/Mexico Border northward to the San Diego/Orange County Line * West coast of Baja California, from San Jose de Las Palomas northward to the U.S./Mexico Border * East coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to Puerto Penasco A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in northern Baja California, northern Gulf of California, and Southern California should continue to monitor the progress of Rachel.

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating Isaias measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 120 kt within the eastern eyewall a few hours ago, prompting an upgrade of the hurricane to major hurricane status with estimated surface winds of 105 kt. Based on the last several dropsondes released in the eye, the central pressure appears to have leveled off around 959 mb. On the last pass through the eastern eyewall, just about a half hour ago, the plane measured a flight-level wind of 111 kt, suggesting that the peak winds may have also leveled off. The eye itself has become cloud filled in visible satellite imagery, but it is now moving into range of several WSR-88D radars along the northern Gulf coast. Strong deep-layer shear has definitely increased as forecast, with various analyses now showing 30-40 kt out of the southwest. However, the shear vector is nearly aligned with the storm's motion, which limits its adverse effects, and upper-level divergence is also increasing over the hurricane. This setup has likely allowed the hurricane to intensify this morning, and the hurricane regional models (HAFS-A, HAFS-B, and HWRF), as well as the statistical-dynamical models (SHIPS and LGEM), all suggest that Isaias could maintain major hurricane intensity up until its landfall this evening. Therefore, the NHC official forecast depicts Isaias with 100-kt winds just offshore the western Florida Panhandle this evening. Weakening will occur after landfall, but sustained hurricane-force winds will likely occur near and along Isaias's track up to 100 miles inland from the coast into southern Alabama, and gusts to hurricane force could extend even farther north into central Alabama. Isaias is likely to lose its tropical characteristics by 36 hours when it is over northern Alabama. Aircraft fixes indicate that Isaias has drifted a bit east of the previous forecast track. NHC's track forecast leans on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, closest to the latest HCCA and GDMI guidance, and implies a potential landfall along the extreme western Florida Panhandle coast this evening. After moving inland, the center of Isaias is expected to continue northward through Alabama, before turning northeastward over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys (as a post-tropical remnant low) on Sunday. Now that the eye has become visible in WSR-88D coastal radars, hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued beginning at 11 AM CDT (1600 UTC). Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida. Residents under evacuation orders should leave immediately and follow advice from local officials. 2. Extremely dangerous and damaging hurricane force-winds are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should have a safe room to ride out the storm and prepare for long-duration power outages. 3. Damaging wind gusts are likely over a large portion of the southeastern United States from western and northern Georgia westward over much of central and northern Alabama, southern middle Tennessee, and Mississippi, especially in areas of higher terrain. Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid driving high-profile vehicles, prepare for power outages, and be aware of the potential for falling trees. 4. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast through the weekend. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and significant river flooding, are possible. 5. The tornado potential will increase this afternoon and continue through tonight. The greatest risk will be east of the center, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. This risk will continue spreading north-northeast across parts of the Southeast on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 27.7N 87.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 29.7N 86.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 32.1N 87.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0000Z 34.2N 87.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 11/1200Z 36.5N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 12/0000Z 39.1N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...CENTER OF ISAIAS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST THIS EVENING... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DEVASTATING WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA COASTS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 87.3W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

18z NAM suggest 1-3 inches region wide on Sunday