yoda

Yup, this is what I'm thinking Wiz is doing right now re chasing

Good disco from Marsh at SPC in the day 4-8 range Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central US ridge will once again build westward in response to the development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this transition. At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west, bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is 102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the 50Fs. Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality low-level moisture is able to return sooner. That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday. This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing, magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added. As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days. ..Marsh.. 07/13/2026

No, I do not want the bolded from this mornings LWX AFD - the 100s that is KEY MESSAGE 2...Forecast confidence decreases substantially late this week into the upcoming weekend, but the potential is there for both extreme heat and severe thunderstorms. Model guidance is in reasonably good agreement that the longwave pattern across the CONUS late this week into the upcoming weekend will feature troughing across the Pacific NW, ridging over the center of the country, and then troughing downstream across New England. Such a pattern will place us in NW`ly flow aloft. However, there`s considerable disagreement regarding the placement of individual shortwaves and their associated sfc fronts throughout that period. As a result, there`s a highly atypical amount of forecast spread for this time of year during that time window. Ensemble guidance has members showing highs anywhere from the upper 70s to the mid 100s each day Fri through Sun, with above average spread on Thu as well (mid 80s to mid 100s). So depending on which solution verifies, we could have anywhere from well below normal temps to record highs each day. Dry conditions are expected on Thu, but chances for storms start to increase for Fri, Sat, and Sun. Depending on how the pattern evolves, and which side of the frontal boundary we end up on, there could be a potential threat for severe thunderstorms. The forecast temp spread illustrates the unseasonable amount of baroclinicity that will be present, which should translate into unseasonably strong wind fields aloft as well. If we end up on the warm, unstable side of the boundary, the threat would likely be there for severe thunderstorms, with MCSs possible in NW`ly flow aloft. SPC currently has much of the forecast area highlighted in a 15 percent contour for severe thunderstorms on Fri, and WxNext2 AI guidance highlights additional threats for severe thunderstorms on both Sat and Sun. We`ll need to monitor trends over the course of the week, since this is a very conditional threat at the moment, given the atypically high amount of forecast uncertainty.

Looks like it threw out an OFB

I figured... just looks weird lol

Weird looking radar... Radarscope has light showers flying east/southeast but heavy showers moving NE that just popped up in DC metro

The 18z NAM image is for 22z tomorrow?

Watch up until 10pm

Watch up until 10pm

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 213 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Howard County in central Maryland... Central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until 245 PM EDT. * At 213 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Linganore-Bartonsville to near Point Of Rocks to 6 miles north of Poolesville to near Leesburg to Purcellville, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Leesburg, Olney, Damascus, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Poolesville, Ashburn, Montgomery Village, North Potomac, Redland, Countryside, Purcellville, Round Hill, Boyds, Green Valley, Clarksburg, and Darnestown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Looks like a slight bow near Lucketts

Does Radarscope overdo the hail stuff? Says hail 2.75" on the warned storm... is that like max possible hail?

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0652&yr=2026 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0652 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1215 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2026 Areas affected...Central Appalachians through the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 091613Z - 092200Z Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will rapidly increase in coverage this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr are likely at times, leading to 2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible. Discussion...The GOES-E Experimental Day-Cloud Phase RGB this morning features rapidly expanding coverage of Cu/TCu reflected by glaciation development within deeper cloud structures. This is occurring primarily within cloud breaks in the visible satellite imagery, and is leading to a quick uptick of elevated reflectivity with showers and thunderstorms spreading from eastern KY through southern PA. Forcing for ascent is steadily intensifying across the Mid-Atlantic, leading to a concurrent increase in the flash flood risk. A shortwave noted in WV imagery is lifting E/NE out of KY, working in tandem with the RRQ of a modest jet streak aloft to produce synoptic ascent. At the same time, modest 850mb inflow of 10-15 kts (locally accelerated in the vicinity of the northeast advancing shortwave) is isentropically ascending a stationary front to produce additional lift. Together, this overlapped ascent is acting upon robust thermodynamics reflected by PWs measured via the 12Z soundings that are above previous daily records (2.17" at IAD) and a ribbon of MLCAPE already reaching 1000+ J/kg (2000 J/kg within clearing sky conditions). Despite convection being fresh, MRMS hourly rainfall has been above 1 inch in some areas, indicative of the impressive environment in place. Convection should continue to rapidly expand and intensify during the next few hours as the shortwave lifts northeast. The high-res CAMs, although a bit slow to develop the ongoing activity, are in good agreement that thunderstorms will develop along any boundaries (terrain, differential heating, outflows) and become numerous with at least modest organization into clusters likely through bulk shear of 25-35 kts. This will intensify rain rates even further, and both the HREF and REFS depict a 30-40% chance of at least 2"/hr rates this aftn, with short-term rates of 3-4"/hr possible as reflected by the sub-hourly HRRR. The regional soundings and forecast 0-6km mean winds suggest storms will generally move steadily E/NE, but short-term training is likely as Corfidi vectors align parallel to the mean flow and storms repeatedly develop back into the higher instability. This region is naturally vulnerable to intense rain rates both due to sensitive terrain as well as urban areas. Additionally, 7-day rainfall that has been 400% of normal has led to 0-10cm RSM of 60-70% according to NASA SPoRT. This suggests the region has become even more compromised, so any repeating of these intense rain rates could cause flash flood impacts through the aftn. Weiss ATTN...WFO...AKQ...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PBZ...PHI...RLX... RNK... ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC... LAT...LON 41047622 41027511 40827395 40157384 39237458 38517578 38137745 38007867 38058006 38488095 39088145 39828135 40408045 40867806

Is this what @weatherwiz is salivating over? Lol Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period. ..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

Hmmm... its way out there... but interesting... Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis, which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic. Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could change sometime in later outlook updates for this period. ..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

SLGT risk added from about i66 south to VA/NC border on 1300z OTLK from SPC for today

You should be getting some good stuff this morning, no?

Was it baseball?

I only see the golf ball sized hail in the LSR 717 NWUS51 KBOX 050005 LSRBOX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 805 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0740 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 2 W Burlington 41.75N 73.00W 07/04/2026 M56 MPH Hartford CT Public 0749 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Burlington 41.77N 72.97W 07/04/2026 Hartford CT Fire Dept/Rescue In Burlington, CT, trees and wires down on Route 4. Relayed via Amateur Radio. 0755 PM Hail Bristol 41.68N 72.94W 07/04/2026 M1.75 Inch Hartford CT Trained Spotter In Bristol, golf ball sized hail fell. 0759 PM Hail 1 W Plainville 41.67N 72.91W 07/04/2026 M1.25 Inch Hartford CT Public In Plainville, Half Dollar sized hail fell.

Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 642 PM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0623 PM Marine Tstm Wind 2 WSW Tompkinsville 38.31N 76.93W 07/04/2026 M75 mph Charles MD Mesonet Wind gusts of up to 65 knots (75 MPH) were measured by the Cuckold Creek WeatherFlow sensor (XCCK) between 6:23 and 6:33 PM.

@WxUSAF BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 627 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Howard County in central Maryland... Central Montgomery County in central Maryland... * Until 715 PM EDT. * At 627 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Montgomery Village, or over Gaithersburg, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Columbia, Germantown, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Olney, Damascus, Historic Ellicott City, Ellicott City, Aspen Hill, Montgomery Village, Redland, Clarksburg, Derwood, Highland, Washington Grove, Laytonsville, Brookeville, Clarksville, West Friendship, and Ashton.

Augusta County has numerous trees down and numerous road closures due to damage

Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 553 PM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0540 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Charles Town 39.29N 77.86W 07/04/2026 Jefferson WV 911 Call Center Multiple reports of trees down across Jefferson County. Several towns with damage.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 615 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 645 PM EDT. * At 614 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Clover Hill, or near Thurmont, moving northeast at 20 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY MARYLAND AND NORTHERN FREDERICK COUNTY MARYLAND. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Thurmont, Emmitsburg, Walkersville, Boonsboro, Smithsburg, Mount Aetna, Mount Lena, San Mar, Wolfsville, Myersville, Cavetown, Sabillasville, Fort Ritchie, Ringgold, Harney, Utica, Pleasant Walk, Rocky Ridge, Highfield, and Graceham. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread wind damage across eastern Washington County Maryland and northern Frederick County Maryland. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 612 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 MDC013-021-042245- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-260704T2245Z/ Carroll MD-Frederick MD- 612 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND NORTHWESTERN FREDERICK COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... At 612 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Clover Hill, or near Frederick, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Frederick, Thurmont, Emmitsburg, Taneytown, Walkersville, Clover Hill, Myersville, Woodsboro, Sabillasville, Harney, Bloomfield, New Midway, Ladiesburg, Utica, Rocky Ridge, Detour, Keysville, Keymar, Graceham, and Lewistown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.