Jump to content

yoda

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    63,250

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by yoda

  1. yoda
    Sun is out here
  2. yoda
    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0258&yr=2026 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0258 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 920 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026 Areas affected...Maryland, District of Columbia Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 271319Z - 271519Z Summary...Isolated flash flood potential will exist as a cluster of storms over western Maryland moves through the region this morning. Discussion...A persistent cluster of thunderstorms was noted via radar mosaic imagery near Frederick. These cells have shown modest signs of intensification in the last few minutes. They are being supported by weak mid-level waves moving through zonal flow over northern VA and near 70F dewpoints that were fostering 1.75-2 inch PW values and ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Despite current rain rates of 0.5-0.75 inch/hr, moisture values increase with downstream extent toward the Chesapeake Bay. Though appreciable steering flow was supporting fairly quick movement of individual cells (around 35-40 knots), increasing downstream moisture profiles and urban ground surfaces/lower FFGs nearer to I-95 (0.75 in/hr) may support isolated instances of flash flooding this morning. This potential should be brief (perhaps extending through 15Z/11a). More upstream convection is possible later today and will be monitored for any flash flood potential beyond 15Z. Cook ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI... ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC... LAT...LON 39727661 39527578 38907572 38667657 39187757 39657737
  3. yoda
    51 degrees and rain on May 22nd... unbelievable
  4. yoda
    Oh... ok Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Charleston WV 506 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 WVC015-039-087-202130- /O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-260520T2130Z/ Kanawha WV-Roane WV-Clay WV- 506 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN KANAWHA...SOUTH CENTRAL ROANE AND WEST CENTRAL CLAY COUNTIES... At 505 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Clendenin, or 15 miles west of Clay, moving east at 30 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR Clendenin. HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. Locations impacted include... Clendenin, Elkview, Amma, Glen, Pinch, and Left Hand. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, if one is spotted act quickly and move to a place of safety inside a sturdy structure, such as a basement or small interior room. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3842 8153 3855 8158 3862 8124 3836 8119 TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 249DEG 26KT 3850 8136 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
  5. yoda
    Random TW from RLX near Charleston, WV
  6. yoda
    Storm popped right in top of @EastCoast NPZ
  7. yoda
    Greencastle storm looks interesting
  8. yoda
    It has begun Severe Thunderstorm Warning MDC001-043-WVC065-201815- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0052.260520T1737Z-260520T1815Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 137 PM EDT Wed May 20 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Washington County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Allegany County in western Maryland... Northeastern Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 215 PM EDT. * At 137 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Barnes Gap, or 10 miles west of Hancock, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Hancock, Berkeley Springs, Pecktonville, Big Pool, Little Orleans, Cherry Run, Lineburg, Spohrs Crossroads, Spruce Pine Hollow, Forest Park, Bellegrove, Sleepy Creek, and Shady Grove. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3972 7829 3972 7801 3962 7802 3962 7803 3961 7804 3964 7843 3971 7842 TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 267DEG 21KT 3967 7837 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
  9. yoda
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC001-003-005-013-015-021-023-025-027-031-033-043-510-210000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0234.260520T1640Z-260521T0000Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CECIL FREDERICK GARRETT HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY $$ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC013-043-047-059-061-069-079-107-113-139-153-157-165-171-187- 510-600-610-660-683-685-840-210000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0234.260520T1640Z-260521T0000Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARLINGTON CLARKE CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FREDERICK GREENE LOUDOUN MADISON PAGE PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH WARREN VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDRIA FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH HARRISONBURG MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK WINCHESTER $$ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS WVC003-023-027-031-037-057-065-071-210000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0234.260520T1640Z-260521T0000Z/ WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKELEY GRANT HAMPSHIRE HARDY JEFFERSON MINERAL MORGAN PENDLETON $$
  10. yoda
    That was fast... watch up until 8pm
  11. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0801.html Mesoscale Discussion 0801 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 201623Z - 201800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail this afternoon and evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations depict a cold front extending from central New York southwestward through north-central and western Pennsylvania into southeast Ohio. Ahead of this cold front, temperatures are warming into the 90s across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, with surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F. Continued heating of this air mass is supporting 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with further destabilization anticipated through the afternoon hours. Recent satellite/radar imagery has shown increasing convective coverage ahead of the aforementioned cold front as remaining inhibition is eroded. With stronger mid/upper-level flow remaining displaced to the northwest, only modest effective shear is analyzed across the region (generally 20-30+ kts per latest mesoanalysis). This will be sufficient to support updraft organization with multicells, and perhaps marginal supercells, likely. Steep low-level lapse rates, well-mixed boundary layer profiles, and surface dewpoint depressions exceeding 20-25 F will promote the potential for damaging wind gusts, particularly with any more organized clusters that develop. Isolated instances of large hail may also accompany any more robust updrafts despite weak mid-level lapse rates (as sampled by the 12z PIT/IAD observed soundings). A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon. ..Chalmers/Hart.. 05/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 40687798 40987676 40987614 40907587 40747568 40397553 39967560 39437589 39147621 38927665 38687793 38597862 38587907 38767959 39117993 39388003 39737992 40107959 40247926 40687798 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
  12. yoda
    STW coming soon for majority of LWX CWA
  13. yoda
    81 DCA 83 IAD 87 BWI 10am obs
  14. yoda
    Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF WEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe/damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible with thunderstorms from the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe gusts may also occur today across parts of west/south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... On the southern fringe of upper troughing over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes, a weak/convectively augmented mid-level shortwave trough will progress northeastward across the OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Robust daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s) ahead of a surface cold front will aid in the development of moderate instability by early afternoon. Ongoing convection across OH/KY this morning may eventually strengthen as it encounters this destabilizing airmass, and additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along/near the cold front by mid afternoon from the central Appalachians into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Stronger flow aloft will tend to lag/remain north of the cold front, but modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly mid-level flow along/near the front should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear. This will be sufficient for some updraft organization with mainly multicells expected, although marginal supercell structures may occur. Low-level lapse rates are expected to become quite steep through the day, evidenced by a general lack of clouds on recent visible satellite imagery from central/eastern WV into the Mid-Atlantic. This will likely aid efficient downward momentum transfer in convective downdrafts, with scattered severe/damaging winds possible as multiple clusters spread east-northeastward through the afternoon/evening. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores. A Slight Risk for severe/damaging winds has been introduced from parts of WV to southern New England given increased confidence in multiple clusters traversing a narrow zone along/ahead of the front.
  15. yoda
    Good call
  16. yoda
    LWX seems to think we get a STWatch today. They mentioned it in their AFD... haven't seen them do that much before
  17. yoda
    BWI 97
  18. yoda
    1pm obs 92 DCA 93 IAD 95 BWI West winds reported at IAD and BWI, south winds at DCA
  19. yoda
    Add today to the list?
  20. yoda
    LWX doesn't seem to be buying it
  21. yoda
    Wednesday afternoon up in the air per morning AFD from LWX A strong area of low pressure moves through the Northeast on Wednesday, with a cold front extending down the East Coast that will bring widespread rain and thunderstorm chances to the Mid-Atlantic in the afternoon/evening. While the center low will be well north of us, the timing of the front aligning with the diurnal cycle and the high temperatures seen at the start of the week could still contribute towards some thunderstorm development in the region. Potential severity at this time still ranges widely--NCAR`s AI NWP Convective Hazards Forecast currently has our region outlined in its 45%-60% probability for severe weather to occur, while CSU`s medium- range probabilities ranks the severe threat much lower. Regardless, this front will likely result in widespread showers at a minimum as well as a sharp drop in temperatures seen later in the week. Highs on Thursday will range in the upper 60s and low 70s, a marked shift from the mid-90s expected earlier in the week. Lingering rain showers may still be moving out of the area by Thursday morning, while a meandering front to the south could bring a few additional rain showers on Friday.
  22. yoda
    MRGL up out to the NW of the i95 corridor
  23. yoda
    And then in a few months when its 90 degrees at 10am we will be complaining for this type of weather
  24. yoda
    Looks like Wednesday, maybe Thursday for a chance of some severe? Nothing huge of course... just the risk for it
  25. yoda
    I'm still mourning the loss of the DGEX... a real OG
×
×
  • Create New...