yoda

Afternoon AFD from LWX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 217 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 ... .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Very brief high pressure quickly traverses the area on Friday, bringing dry conditions for the daytime hours. Highs expected to reach the 30s in the Alleghenies, and 40s to low 50s elsewhere. A fast moving clipper system is forecast to track along or near the I-64 corridor in the southern 1/3rd of the CWA Friday tonight into Saturday morning. This system is going to bring widespread snow to most of the forecast area, with rain likely in areas south of the low`s track. The 12Z guidance continues to trend upwards with QPF and forecast snow amounts, with favorable dynamics for banding and high snow rates. Temps aloft are expected to be cold to support snow throughout the event. The highest snow amounts are likely in the Alleghenies and where any banding features develop (which at this point is difficult to pin down). In the Alleghenies, forecast snow amounts of 4-6" with isolated higher amounts up to 8" possible. Elsewhere, forecast snow amounts of 1-3" with isolated higher amounts of 4-5" possible. The Blue Ridge could see 2-5" of snow. Again, those higher end amounts are going to depend on where snow bands set up. The Winter Weather Watches remain for the Alleghenies and parts of the Potomac Highlands where confidence is high for 4-6" of snow. Winter Weather Advisories will likely be issued for most of the rest of the area tonight, as that will be around 24 hours before snow falls late Friday night. Stay tuned to the latest updates at weather.gov/lwx/winter. Precipitation ends from west to east Saturday morning, with any lingering light snow east of I-95 ending by late morning. Mountain snow showers continue through the afternoon. High pressure builds in Saturday afternoon as dry conditions prevail. Temperatures quickly rebound to the 30s to low 40s outside of the mountains, which should allow a good/most of the snow on the ground to melt. Temperatures Saturday night drop to 20s, with 10s for the mountains.

2pm update

It's showing blue... so...

I don't see the reason for it... but it's @Deck Pic thread then

Above quoted is hr 42 at DCA sounding. Below is hr 48 sounding at DCA

I mean that's DCA at 06z. Sounding is firmly below freezing at every level and 32 at surface... so I have no idea why rain is considered the best guess precip type. It has freezing rain at 48 hours as it's best guess precip type too. Very odd

Yes but what's with the best guess precip type of rain?

Huh?

I edited it in just before you posted

Very odd 12z UKIE run... I think we can safely toss

Borrowing this from @RIC Airport

Beer blows. I hate carbonation, well, more the way it tastes, so I don't drink any soda or beer whatsoever. If I'm having an alcoholic drink, it better be something like on the rocks espresso martini or some Grey goose

I feel for the Orioles fans this morning https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/orioles-kyle-bradish-ucl-sprain-elbow-injured-list.html

I don't drink beer at all

Tastes like iced caramel macchiatto with extra caramel

42 looks tasty

I see Wes

Equates to a bit less snowfall though compared to the 06z run

12z ICON has the two banding idea... one across M/D line other across i66 corridor... can see this on the qpf map

LWX in their updated morning AFD disagrees (10am update) SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Brief high pressure builds in early Friday behind the exiting clipper before a second clipper system approaches and passes to the south and brings snow to the region. Most of the guidance has the surface low tracking near the I-64 corridor toward the lower Chesapeake Bay, though there is still some ensemble members that take a more northern track. The latest 06Z guidance, and the early 12Z guidance is indicating an uptick of QPF, particularly from Pendleton/Highland east toward the Blue Ridge. Even though surface temps will be marginal, around 29F-32F during the peak of the event, snow rates will be high and there is a good signal for banding somewhere in the area. As a result, have increased snow totals this morning to 4-6" in the Alleghenies, 3-5" in the Shenandoah Valley from Rockingham County northward, 2-4" north of I-66 and east of Blue Ridge, and 1-2"south of I-66 and east of Blue Ridge. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the Alleghenies and portions of the Potomac Highlands. Additional Watches, Warnings, and Advisories are likely to be issued later this afternoon. Stay tuned for additional updates on snow totals as the latest guidance comes in.

DC metro jackpot though of 3"

12z RGEM seems slower then the 12z NAM twins