Jump to content

yoda

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    63,557

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by yoda

  1. yoda
    Oh okay then SPC... @high risk @Kmlwx @wxmeddler @Eskimo Joe Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-6/Wed-Thu -- Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough is forecast to deepen over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intensifying 500 mb jet streak will develop across the central Plains and increase to 80-100 kt as it moves into the Mid-MS Valley Wednesday night, and spreads eastward across the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern/central Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. As this occurs, increasing southerly low-level flow will quickly transport rich Gulf moisture northward into the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley by Wednesday afternoon as the surface low moves across IA and a trailing cold front moves eastward in tandem with the low across portions of the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley. Strong to extreme instability is forecast across the strongly sheared warm sector. An all-hazards severe thunderstorm event appears likely. An intense southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening. This could support upscale growth into an MCS moving across portions of the Midwest Wednesday night, posing a risk for swaths of damaging winds. This system will spread east on Thursday across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A continued risk for all severe hazards, and possible MCS with damaging winds, will persist as the mid/upper jet streak is forecast to remain quite strong as it overspreads a seasonally moist airmass. While some timing differences of aforementioned features is evident in various NWP guidance, overall medium range consensus and mean calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests a multi-day severe episode is likely as this system overspreads portions of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, though the 15 percent risk areas may shift in the coming days as details become better resolved, and higher probabilities are possible in subsequent outlooks. The southern extent of severe potential is more uncertain across parts of the Plains toward the TN Valley as these areas will remain further removed from stronger flow aloft. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2026
  2. yoda
    2/5/30 on morning day 2 SPC OTLk. 30 wind is from BR eastward to Eastern Shore Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area. ...Mid-Atlantic Region... An upper trough will be oriented over the Upper Great Lakes Sunday morning. A shortwave embedded within the large-scale troughing will pivot east across the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this main shortwave trough, most guidance suggests a lead impulse will overspread the Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the afternoon. Low to midlevel west/southwesterly flow will increase to around 30-40 kt in association with these features. This enhanced flow will aid in organized thunderstorms in multiple bands during the afternoon and evening. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be in place to the lee of the Blue Ridge across the NC/VA Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay vicinity into southeast PA/southern NJ. Northward extent of moisture return remains a bit uncertain, but at least low 60s F dewpoints should filter into much of PA and NY ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Strong heating will support a corridor of moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range across eastern VA/NC and vicinity. Instability is expected to be more muted with northward extent where boundary layer moisture will be somewhat less and midlevel lapse rates rather poor. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop within lee troughing near the Blue Ridge and spread east across the Chesapeake/DelMarVa/southeast PA/southern NJ vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern with these storms, though isolated hail or a tornado also will be possible. If current model trends continue, higher coverage probabilities/upgrade to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) could be needed in subsequent outlooks. For now, wind probabilities have been increased to 30 percent across the DelMarVa into southeast PA/southern NJ. Additional bands/clusters of storms are likely to develop during the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front from the Upper Ohio Valley into PA/NY. While instability will be lower across this area, deep-layer flow will be stronger. Linear bands and clusters will pose a risk for isolated severe/damaging wind gusts through the evening.
  3. yoda
    18z NAM soundings would seem to suggest potential for an isolated tornado threat Sunday into Sunday night... DCA 21z Sunday DCA 03z Monday
  4. yoda
    653pm M67 IAD
  5. yoda
    Numerous trees downed along rt 50
  6. yoda
    Incoming DC metro BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 648 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... The City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... Northwestern Arlington County in northern Virginia... The western City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... Central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The northeastern City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... North central Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 730 PM EDT. * At 647 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over South Riding, moving southeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Centreville, Reston, Annandale, South Riding, Herndon, Fairfax, Vienna, Falls Church, Broadlands, Brambleton, Mantua, Pimmit Hills, Dulles International Airport, Mclean, Ashburn, Burke, Oakton, Sterling, Chantilly, and Tysons Corner. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3882 7758 3897 7744 3899 7751 3903 7750 3893 7715 3872 7727 TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 293DEG 25KT 3891 7752 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
  7. yoda
    Rotation marker in the EZF severe warned storm
  8. yoda
    Is that your spotter report that just appeared?
  9. yoda
    601 NWUS51 KLWX 121554 LSRLWX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1152 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0823 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 SE Aspen Hill 39.08N 77.06W 06/11/2026 Montgomery MD Emergency Mngr *** 1 Fatal *** Tree fell onto a person along the Matthew Henson Trail resulting in a fatality. && Event Number LWX2606642
  10. yoda
    883 NWUS51 KLWX 121642 LSRLWX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1242 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0830 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NNW Marlton 38.77N 76.79W 06/11/2026 E70 mph Prince Georges MD Broadcast Media *** 1 Fatal *** A tree fell onto a person on North Marlton Avenue resulting in a fatality. A wind gust was estimated to be around 70 mph based on the report of 74 mph at Andrew Air Force Base about five miles to the southeast as well as analysis of the Terminal Doppler Radar from Andrews Air Force Base which showed about 70 mph 375 feet Above Ground Level. && Event Number LWX2606643
  11. yoda
    083 NWUS51 KLWX 121825 LSRLWX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 225 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0726 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 SW Woolsey 38.84N 77.66W 06/11/2026 Prince William VA Emergency Mngr *** 1 Inj *** Thunderstorm wind gust blew person in inflatable kayak out into Silver Lake. They were rescued in critical condition. && Event Number LWX2606644
  12. yoda
    By the way, at least 2 deaths and 1 critical injury due to yesterday's storms per LWX
  13. yoda
    For Sunday... hmmm Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley vicinity through much of the northern Mid Atlantic Sunday. ...Discussion... Downstream of initially amplified mid-level ridging offshore of the Pacific coast, models indicate that flow will continue to trend cyclonic east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, to the south of a broadening vortex centered near southern Hudson Bay. Within this regime, it appears that notable short wave troughing will pivot east of the Upper Midwest through the southeastern Canadian provinces and Northeast by late Sunday night, accompanied by cyclogenesis across the lower Great Lakes through St. Lawrence Valley vicinity. It appears that this may be preceded by the remnants of an initially fairly notable mesoscale convective vortex, within strengthening westerly flow across the Allegheny/Cumberland Plateau through the northern Mid Atlantic by early Sunday evening. ...Northeast... There remains considerable spread within the latest model output concerning the extent of convective potential for this period. Mostly this appears related pre-frontal low-level moisture return and destabilization across the upper Ohio Valley into the lee of the lower Great Lakes, which could be slowed or impeded by the influence of preceding convective outflow. However, guidance generally suggests that destabilization prior to the arrival of the MCV and belt of enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields (30-40+ kt) will be sufficient to support potential for organized severe convection east of the Allegheny Mountains through the northern Mid Atlantic by late Sunday afternoon. More substantive strengthening of mid-level wind fields and forcing for ascent appear likely to overspread the pre-frontal environment across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the lee of the lower Great Lakes region, where it appears increasing model output is now suggesting that the evolving warm sector may become sufficiently unstable to support a risk for organized severe storm development. Damaging wind gusts accompanying organizing lines and/or clusters appear the primary severe hazard, but there also appears at least some potential for a few tornadoes. It is still possible that severe weather probabilities will need to be increased further in later outlook updates for this period. ..Kerr.. 06/12/2026
  14. yoda
    Lots of SVR warnings going up in VA... also watching E WV west of OKV
  15. yoda
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 321 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Virginia Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will form in Virginia and Maryland this afternoon, and will spread eastward from West Virginia. The storm environment will favor damaging downbursts with winds up to 60-70 mph, while the strongest storms could produce isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter.
  16. yoda
    Watch coming soon per MCD sounds like Mesoscale Discussion 1107 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Areas affected...much of Virginia...parts of West Virginia...Maryland...northern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 121757Z - 121900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected to develop through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...A surface trough is gradually deepening across MD/VA/NC with strong heating resulting in very steep low-level lapse rates. Modest northwest flow aloft exists into the area, which may aid in steering storms in a southeastward direction. Visible imagery shows a moist air mass across the entire area and extending west across the higher terrain as well, suggesting minimal drying/downslope effects. In the next couple hours, storms may form in the agitated CU area currently seen over northern into northwest VA. Several models depict a possible cluster of storms moving southeastward later today, with a corridor of damaging winds possible. Other storms are likely to develop over WV and southward across the Appalachians. Given the weak northwest winds aloft, any such activity may move into the lower terrain late in the day. Several models suggest any such convection and/or outflows may instigate new development during the later afternoon into much of central VA and perhaps northern NC. ..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 37258177 37808116 38787980 38987924 39137802 39027702 38927678 38377634 37847641 37517710 36987785 36397880 36018174 36018182 36368227 36798229 37258177 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
  17. yoda
    I guess so... just getting a lot of internal service errors no matter where I go on the NWS website past 15 minutes
  18. yoda
    Did LWX lose power? Not getting any updates from them and getting internal server errors on their webpage
  19. yoda
    Power flickering here
  20. yoda
    Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 745 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... South central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... The western City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... West central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The northern City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... The north central City of Manassas in northern Virginia... * Until 800 PM EDT. * At 745 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Centreville, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Centreville, South Riding, Fairfax, Vienna, Oakton, Chantilly, Bull Run, Haymarket, Manassas, Sudley, Manassas Park, Fairfax Station, Gainesville, Clifton, and Catharpin. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3880 7763 3892 7763 3891 7727 3876 7737 TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 266DEG 43KT 3883 7742 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
  21. yoda
    Well with LSRs showing numerous trees downed... its justified
  22. yoda
    Mesoscale Discussion 1101 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Areas affected...Southwest Lower Michigan...central and northern Indiana...far western Ohio and eastern Illinois. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon Valid 112338Z - 120115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch will be issued within the hour east of tornado watch 313. DISCUSSION...Instability continues to increase across northern Indiana and into southern Michigan as the outflow boundary from earlier convection continues to modify/lift northward. South of this boundary, an environment similar to the 21Z ILX RAOB is present with near 4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Along and north of the boundary instability is more limited, but shear is very strong with 250 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH and strong low-level clockwise curvature per an 22Z RAOB launched by the Valparaiso University Meteorological Department in Valparaiso, Indiana. Along and south of this boundary, widespread damaging winds are likely along a squall line this evening. In addition, embedded QLCS tornadoes and occasional embedded supercell tornadoes will be possible through the evening given the presence of strong low-level shear. The last few runs of the HRRR hint at some pre-frontal convection ahead of the line across central/northern Indiana later this evening, likely in response to the strengthening low-level jet. It is uncertain whether this will occur, or have sufficient time to mature before being caught by the main squall line, but these storms could pose an additional supercell tornado threat later this evening. ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... LAT...LON 39568995 40378866 40948771 41958718 42708671 43028575 43028496 42878447 42168429 41088455 40078471 39638548 39258687 39568995 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
  23. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 718 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Eastern Washington County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Howard County in central Maryland... Western Montgomery County in central Maryland... Frederick County in north central Maryland... Western Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Stafford County in northern Virginia... Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northeastern Orange County in central Virginia... Northwestern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia... Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Culpeper County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... Prince William County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas in northern Virginia... East central Madison County in northwestern Virginia... The western City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... Eastern Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... Southeastern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 800 PM EDT. * At 716 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 8 miles west of Culpeper to near Delaplane to near Boonsboro to Greencastle, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Emergency Management has reported many instances of trees down with this line of storms. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Centreville, Frederick, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Reston, Leesburg, Hagerstown, South Riding, Herndon, Fairfax, Culpeper, Vienna, Damascus, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Warrenton, and Thurmont.
  24. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1097.html Mesoscale Discussion 1097 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0513 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Areas affected...portions of central into northeast Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 313... Valid 112213Z - 112315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 313 continues. SUMMARY...A strong tornado is likely ongoing across Woodford County, Illinois. The strong tornado threat from this storm is expected to continue for several more hours as it moves northeast. DISCUSSION...A debris ball has developed within a low-reflectivity hook west of Washburn, Illinois at 2205Z. This supercell is in a very favorable environment near the modifying outflow boundary across north-central Illinois. The KILX 21Z RAOB showed a very favorable environment with 0-500m SRH of 151 m2/s2. Recent VWP trends from ILX suggest this las likely increased within the past hour also. Given the continued northward movement of the outflow boundary and the discrete nature of this storm, expect an EF3+ tornado threat to continue for several more hours this evening as it moves east/northeast. ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 40968956 41468879 41548810 41438778 41228773 40968813 40858889 40828939 40968956 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
  25. yoda
    Watch coming shortly for Eastern Shore https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1096.html
×
×
  • Create New...