yoda

Who does the in person interview?

Afternoon AFD from LWX... I thought Blizzard Watches didn't exist anymore? DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Near-Blizzard conditions expected in the Alleghenies late Friday morning through Saturday morning. Given the high confidence in the intense bursts of snow (totaling 6-8 inches) over the Alleghenies Friday into Saturday morning, then Winter Storm Watch was upgraded to a Warning for Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton. A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for western Allegany, western Mineral, and western Highland counties where spillover snow showers/squalls and blowing snow are expected to be a concern, though with lower overall snow totals (2-4 inches). The first round of snow showers reach the Alleghenies late Friday morning through the evening. Then, there could be a lull where snow is mostly light, then the a second, stronger burst of snow showers (possible snow squalls) arrive Friday night with the Arctic front. The 12Z high res guidance shows snow showers easily making it east of the mountains, with a dusting to around an inch Friday afternoon to evening. The northern Blue Ridge, along with other ridges in the Potomac Highlands could get close to 1.5 to maybe 2 inches of snow. Snow rates look to be around 1"/hour in the Alleghenies, possibly up to 2"/hr with the most intense activity. Even east of the mountains, snow rates could approach 1"/hour, but mostly will be around 0.5"/hr. Synoptic discussion: A series of mid/upper troughs will traverse the area Friday into Saturday, bringing several intense periods of snow to the Alleghenies. The leading shortwave arrives Friday morning to afternoon, then the main upper trough and Arctic front cross the area Saturday morning. The strong trough crossing the northern Mid-Atlantic will provide ample lift to generate heavy snow showers across the mountains Friday into Saturday. In addition, increasing instability through the DGZ Friday evening and very high SLRs will generate squalls. Winter Storm Watches remain in effect for Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton where snow totals around 6 inches are likely, with significant impacts from blowing and drifting snow. Travel disruptions are likely along I-68/US-40 west of Frostburg, MD, US-219 from the PA/MD line south to the WV line, US-48 west of Moorefield, WV, US-33/WV-28 west of Franklin, WV, and US-250 west of Monterey, VA. Strengthening winds will also lead to significant blowing and drifting snow. The strongest winds on Saturday don`t overlap with the best lift and instability, so don`t see a need for a Blizzard Watch. Squalls will likely continue through the day Saturday given the strength of the low- level flow and high Froude numbers. KEY MESSAGE 2...Extreme cold and strong winds will result in dangerous wind chills this weekend. A deepening low moving offshore, with Arctic high pressure building in from the west will result in a very tight pressure gradient over the area Friday night into Saturday. A potent upper trough will dig into the Appalachians / northern Mid- Atlantic early Saturday morning. This induces a LLJ that peaks in strength over the northern Shenandoah Valley toward I-95 corridor Saturday morning. Model soundings continue to show mixing up to around 925mb, with a stout inversion located just above that level between 850-900mb. The strongest winds are maximized just above the inversion, but there is still around 50-60 kt of wind just below that inversion. The strong synoptic setup (with breaking lee waves off the Alleghenies) will allow these strong winds to mix down to the surface. A sudden onset of strong winds is expected right right as the Arctic front passes through. There is high confidence for widespread, persistent gusts in the mid to upper 40kt range (50-55 mph), with occasional gusts to 50-55kt (60-65 mph) possible. A High Wind Watch has been issued for those along/east of the Allegheny Front, and the Blue Ridge, where confidence is highest for gusts of 60-65 mph. There was consideration given to issuing a High Wind Watch for the lower terrain, including east to the DC and Baltimore Metro areas, but confidence remains low for an extended period of gusts above 50kt. This will be revisited with new model data tonight and tomorrow. The most likely scenario remains a Wind Advisory for gusts of 45-55 mph.

Oh, so now you are trying to buy a snowstorm for 150k? I see how it is... its pay to play...er, snow

I hope your WC is below zero Saturday morning

I hope you get one inch of rain

Well shoot

So what happens if I post in the other thread and don't make over 150k?

I learned from @mappy and @H2O

Wat https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/2019119800098963674 https://x.com/ShamsCharania/status/2019119940767556049

Yes, us Penguins have a habit of losing games late we shouldn't be losing.

They are in the OT section

It was no thanks to the high wind warning. I've had enough wind. Snow and cold - yes please

No thanks Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Winds continue to trend stronger for the weekend with solid Wind Advisory (greater than 45 mph) conditions becoming increasingly likely everywhere late Friday night through Saturday with damaging winds (58 mph or stronger) also possible. && .KEY MESSAGES... - A potent winter storm with multiple hazards is likely to impact the region Friday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A potent winter storm with multiple hazards is likely to impact the region Friday into the weekend. A potent upper trough and Arctic cold front are set to track across the region Friday into the weekend. A lead shortwave-trough ahead of the Arctic front will bring the chance of snow showers areawide during the day Friday with moderate to heavy snow across the mountains as upper trough digs and lift increases. Snow squalls are possible everywhere Friday night with blizzard-like conditions possible across the mountains for a short period of time Friday night. There will also be an abrupt onset of very windy conditions immediately behind the passage of the Arctic front late Friday night. Wind Advisory conditions are becoming increasingly likely late Friday night through Saturday with winds potentially reaching High Wind Warning criteria for a large portion of the forecast area given the magnitue of the 925 and 850 mb winds and favorable mixing during daylight hours. This when combined with rapidly falling temperatures will result in Cold Weather Advisories everywhere even during the warmest part of the day Saturday. Extreme Cold Warnings are also possible across the mountains.

Bncho already made one and its pinned

Afternoon AFD from LWX KEY MESSAGE 2...A potent winter storm with multiple hazards is likely to impact the region Friday into the weekend. A potent upper trough and Arctic cold front are set to track across the region Friday into the weekend. Ahead of the front, a leading shortwave trough quickly traverses our area during the day Friday, which could bring a burst of snow east of the Alleghenies. Accumulating snow along/east of I-81 will have to contend with more marginal temperatures in the low to mid 30s. However, the strong cold air advection and substantial lift in the DGZ could possibly overcome any marginal temps at the surface. Stay tuned to the forecast in the coming days for any possible impacts from snow on Friday. For the mountains, a steady period of moderate to possibly heavy snow is possible, with several inches of accumulating snow being noted in much of the model guidance. Additionally, the increasing winds will lead to blowing snow and reduced visibility issues. Snow squalls are possible Friday evening into Friday night as the base of the upper trough slams into the Alleghenies. This is a very favorable synoptic setup for upslope snow, though it is going to be short-lived as forcing quickly departs, and moisture is more limited due to abundant ice cover on Lake Erie and Lake Huron. As the upper trough digs right over our area Friday night, it is likely to induce a sudden onset of windy conditions, especially in the wind-favored climo areas (mountains & along/north of I-66). The 500mb height fields in the ECMWF and GFS show intense ripples within a very sharp gradient over the Appalachians - a signal that usually leads to mixing of stronger winds aloft with northwesterly downslope winds. Most of the guidance has wind gusts of 35-45 mph across the area, with 45-55 mph in the mountains. Higher gusts are noted in the ensemble guidance, thus Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings may eventually be needed for parts of the area. Frigid temperatures return to the area for this weekend, with highs in the teens to 20s each day (maybe getting to around freezing in parts of central VA). Lows Saturday morning drop to the teens, then likely see single digits to low teens areawide for Sunday morning. Wind chills are going to be in the low single digits to -5F or lower each night, with -10F to -20F in the mountains. Interestingly, the GFS has a progressive clipper passing through on Sunday that could bring additional light snow, but confidence in that is very low given model uncertainty. Otherwise, dry and cold conditions prevail this weekend into the start of next week.

Not 67?

Idea is there on the 12z GFS for something mid-month as many have mentioned

Unfortunate on the 12z GFS on the 15th for most of us... Eastern Shore cleans up. Idea is there tbh as others have mentioned

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1014 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-504-VAZ053>056-501-502-506-526-527-040100- District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun- Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Warrenton, Turnbull, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 1014 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 ...POTENTIAL WINTER COMMUTING HAZARD FOR THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING... There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the Wednesday morning commute. A period of snow is POSSIBLE (a 30 percent chance) Wednesday morning across the Washington metro areas with up to an inch possible on area roads. If this threat does materialize during the Wednesday morning rush-hour, many roads could quickly turn icy. This could lead to dangerous traveling conditions, multiple accidents, and extensive delays. If commuting Wednesday morning, be aware of the POSSIBILITY of significant travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework options. Stay tuned for updates on this potential winter weather episode.

Interesting... 12z HRRR

Im taking the HRRR as gospel

I'll take a nice inch refresher