yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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Temperatures will probably jump quickly the next few hours
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Updated morning discussion from LWX suggests some interest later While some showers may spill across the mountains during the late morning and early afternoon, overall this should be a period of less precipitation in the forecast area. While the bulk of convection will again be west of the area, heights begin falling by late afternoon, and the moist conveyor belt begins to shift back to the southeast. Instability will be able to build south of the warm front. It appears the best overlap of these features will be the northwest corner of the forecast area, resulting in the highest chance of showers and thunderstorms. Instability is forecast to be on the lower side...however, there is enough shear for any stronger updrafts to organize and become capable of producing severe weather. All hazards could be on the table, especially if there is a supercell or two. There is a narrow corridor of overlap with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 300+ m2/s2 SRH this evening between US-50 and I-70. North of this area, it should remain stable enough to preclude surface-based convection with a lower severe threat overall; further to the south and east, less forcing and more mid-level dry air should keep convective coverage at bay. Aside from somewhat amorphous forcing and the relatively narrow corridor of favorable overlap in the parameter space, low-level CAPE may be on the low side unless more cloud breaks develop. If more cloud breaks are observed and surface heating is more efficient, higher low-level instability could raise the threat of severe/rotating storms this evening in the aforementioned corridor.
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Discussion mentioned the risk for a few severe storms out there later
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Not seeing much so far
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Looks like maybe a sneaky threat tomorrow... more out west though
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Ok then - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0390.html Mesoscale Discussion 0390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...ern WV Pnhdl...nrn VA...MD...DC...srn PA...DE...srn NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 040752Z - 040845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong, potentially damaging wind gusts, may accompany weak thunderstorm activity likely to spread east of the Blue Ridge and across the Greater Washington D.C./Baltimore metropolitan areas through 6-7 AM EDT. It is not clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...A narrow line of thunderstorms has shown some intensification, near and south of a wave or weak MCV now east of Elkins WV. This activity has been propagating rapidly eastward, along and just south of a slow moving or stalling cold front, around 50 kt, which is about the strength of the mean westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow across the Allegheny Mountains into northern Mid Atlantic. Due to generally weak deep-layer lapse rates, CAPE along this corridor is quite weak west of the mountains, but improves somewhat (CAPE to 500 J/kg) in better low-level moisture across northern Virginia through southern New Jersey. While some further intensification to the east of the Blue Ridge is possible as activity rapidly advances eastward through 11-12Z, thunderstorm intensities are likely to remain rather modest, based on forecast soundings. However, unsaturated profiles in lower/mid-levels, may contribute to evaporative cooling and downward momentum transport of rear-inflow, which may undergo some further convective augmentation. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39897751 39677548 38737539 38497760 38557915 39397855 39897751 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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81/64 at DCA at 5pm
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That sounds more like a "we'll re-evaluate in a few hours" MCD than a no chance of a watch
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MCD just came out for WV into VA to just southwest of DC
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Looks like a pretty decent looking hook
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Looks like a small MCS that rides the WF or what's left of it?
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18z HRRR made things really interesting in MD overnight lol
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Tornado Watch up - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0107.html
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Which is interesting because if you take a peak at the 12z NAM Nest soundings, you'd think something would go. But looking deeper, I see ConvT is 84 degrees - so I'm assuming that since we aren't forecasted to reach that temperature, the NAM Nest sim radar isn't showing convection. Am I reading that correctly or am I offbase?
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12z NAM and the NAM NEST aren't really enthused for anything... HRRR is though and has been for many runs
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I think we are waiting for the WF to come through later
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@Kmlwx you'd like the 08z HRRR helicity swath lol Sim radar looks pretty nice on that run as well
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I'll take the 06z and 07z HRRR btw. Wonder if that severe squall line out west will be laying down boundaries for this afternoon 06z NAM NEST still not enthusiastic for really anything, 06z NAM now shows storms coming in around 21z 00z FV3 also not enthusiastic... 06z RAP seems its very enthusiastic lol
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@high risk why would looping hodos suppress updraft development? Too much wind shear? NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A warm front lifting north of the area today combined with southerly flow from high pressure offshore, will lead to plenty of warm and moist air in the forecast area. Additionally, a cold front approaching from the west will create an environment conducive to rain showers and possible severe thunderstorms. Moderate CAPE, strong shear, and the frontal boundary approaching during peak heating lead to possible strong to severe thunderstorms. That being said, model soundings show looping hodographs, due to wind shear,which may suppress updraft development.Showers and a few thunderstorms continue this evening and into the overnight as the cold front moves through the forecast area.
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TORE Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN 123 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 MSC009-093-TNC047-069-030700- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0085.000000T0000Z-250403T0700Z/ Marshall MS-Benton MS-Fayette TN-Hardeman TN- 123 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR SLADEN... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL MARSHALL...NORTHERN BENTON...SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE AND SOUTHWESTERN HARDEMAN COUNTIES... At 122 AM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located over Slayden, or 12 miles north of Holly Springs, moving northeast at 50 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for Slayden. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Ghost River State Natural Area, Saulsbury, Mt Pleasant, Lagrange, La Grange, Moscow, Early Grove, Williston, Grand Junction, Michigan City, Lamar, Hays Crossing, Pattersonville, Slayden, Forty Five, Taska, Rossville, and Somerville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!
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Day 2 1730z SPC OTLK disco for our region ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time.
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Still 2/5/15 on 1730z SPC OTLK... but 15% hail was moved NE into W VA and WV
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12z HRRR wasn't too bad either... 12z WRF-ARW looked decent in MD
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Gleason/Leitman extended the HIGH risk further south into AR on 1300z update
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Mod risk for tornadoes was considered for more of IN/W OH per 1300z SPC OTLK In addition to the tornado threat, large to very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter) and severe/damaging wind gusts may occur with these supercells and bowing clusters. A linear mode appears more likely with northward extent across the mid MS Valley into the southern Great Lakes as the cold front continues eastward today. But, this area will also have less time to destabilize ahead of the ongoing convection, which casts some uncertainty on the northern extent of the substantial severe threat. Have trimmed the Marginal/Slight Risks some across the Upper Midwest, but the Enhanced Risk remains unchanged for now. Some risk for supercells ahead of the line/clusters will exist across the OH Valley/Midwest. But, confidence in this scenario occurring was not great enough to expand the Moderate Risk for tornadoes northward into more of IN and western OH.
