yoda

I mentioned the march storm we had in the past earlier.

We really need a clean thread for the storm... whatever form it takes

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1204 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 VAZ507-508-210115- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0003.260222T1100Z-260223T1100Z/ Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 1204 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 inches or more possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Central Virginia Blue Ridge and Northern Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

I fixed my post with the updated total qpf image

Thats all I have for 12z AIGFS (ETA - sorry wrong image, corrected qpf image posted)

10:1 maps isn't much different than that in dc metro... maybe an inch or two higher

So which should we be looking at for our snow fix?

Not saying its the same... but didn't we have an early March storm some years ago that was kinda like this at least temperature-wise? Where it was very iffy and we just happened to be lucky and the qpf was all snow? It was a heavy wet snow

Fwiw. 10:1 12z NAM

Solid warning storm. Not GFS type amounts... but still nice

5 hours until Ji tells us 18z GFS lost 30 inches

Looks like its a tad too late for us... but sne gets hit

@CAPE would like the 12z RRFS

Yes its him

Wth is going on in El Paso? If this is political, feel free to delete... but uh wtf

Weak sauce

Euro is waiting for Mr. Green to arrive

This?

So who is taking the 2nd bath?

Did he tell you that over a boastful PM?

Shhh... don't tell Randy

-SN here in West Springfield

@WxUSAF I believe the afternoon AFD from LWX answers your question from earlier re extreme cold warning in the metros Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 309 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A few additional expansion of Cold Weather and Wind Advisories to cover the rest of the central VA Piedmont. Low Water Advisories also issued for likely impactful blowout tide Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dangerous, life-threatening cold conditions and damaging winds Saturday. - 2) Near-Blizzard conditions expected in the Alleghenies late this morning through Saturday morning. - 3) A warming trend in temperatures is expected early next week, with a chance for mixed precipitation following on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous, life-threatening cold conditions and damaging winds Saturday. There is extremely high confidence in a prolonged period of dangerous, life-threatening wind chills (paired with strong to damaging winds) across the area Saturday morning through Sunday morning. Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories are in place across the entire forecast area from tonight through Sunday morning. A strong low pressure system located offshore paired with arctic high pressure moving in from Canada that yields a very tight pressure gradient across the area. A strengthening LLJ at 850-925mb that crosses the area Saturday morning will support the mixing of stronger winds down to the surface. A sudden onset of strong winds is expected right as the Arctic front passes through, which looks to be between 1AM to 6AM from northwest to southeast. Winds are going to rapidly increase from 5-10 mph to gusting 30-40 mph in tens of minutes, with gusts of 50-60 mph mixed in there. Wind gusts then remain steady at 45-55 mph through Saturday evening, with embedded gusts of 60-70 mph at times (higher gusts possible in the mountains). The High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect through Saturday evening for the entire area. Wind chills are forecast to crash below zero by daybreak Saturday, and remain below zero through at least late Sunday morning. For the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge wind chills bottom out between -20F to -30F, and possibly as cold as -40F at Spruce Knob. Elsewhere, wind chills as low as -10F to -20F are expected. This is only the second Extreme Cold Warning (along with its predecessor - Wind Chill Warning) issued for the immediate DC and Baltimore metro areas (as far back as WWA records go). The current forecast has between 24-30 hours of wind chills below zero over most of the area from Saturday early morning to Sunday late morning. It has been over 30 years since this area has observed this long a period of sub-zero wind chills, last occurring on January 15-16, 1994 (when wind chills below zero lasted upwards of 30-36 hours). Cannot stress enough the impact these wind chills and strong to damaging winds will have. Tree and powerlines damage is possible. Any power outages might last several days as crews will not be able to repair infrastructure until winds and wind chills decrease on Sunday. Anyone without proper clothing will be at risk of frostbite in as little as 30 minutes, with less time in the mountains where lower wind chills are expected.

Sunrise i think?