yoda

Nice pictures. You might be out by my family's large farm out there if you are near Luray

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A coastal low pressure system will take shape off of the Southeast U.S. Coast tonight through midday Saturday, before moving north along the Eastern Seaboard Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. An occasional shower or sprinkles could evolve Saturday into Saturday evening from southeast to northwest across the region. A light to moderate steadier rainfall could arrive in several bands overnight Saturday through Sunday night as the coastal low gets closer to the mid- Atlantic region and nearly stalls. Rain amounts could average 1 to 2 inches along and east of a line from Hagerstown to Warrenton to Fredericksburg. To the west of this line, one-half to three-quarters of an inch. The heaviest rainfall could reach the 3 to 3.5 inch amounts in places. The interaction between the departing area of high pressure off the New England Coast and the coastal low pressure system will result in stronger northeast winds to develop and persist through much of the weekend. An elongated trough of low pressure, accompanied by a few mid-level disturbances, will help to tighten the pressure gradient Saturday through Sunday to result in stronger northeasterly winds. Northeast winds will increase late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon with sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph gusting 25 to 30 mph. Winds could gust 35 to 40 mph over land within a several miles of the Chesapeake Bay shoreline. A big uncertainty remains in the track and intensity of coastal low, simultaneously, as it moves up the coast. Also, to make matters even less certain, is the interaction or phasing of the mid- level disturbances with the coastal low and the exact location of that occurrence. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Breezy and wet conditions likely continue into Monday, and perhaps even into the first half of Tuesday, as the coastal low meanders off the Delmarva Peninsula before eventually pulling further offshore on Tuesday. There seems to be a decent amount of agreement that precipitation should taper off by Tuesday afternoon as the low shift further to the east. However, it remain close enough that winds may still remain elevated for a couple days thereafter.

12z CMC very rainy too... retrograde back toward us on Monday

This is the new CMC precip maps... the old ones no longer work https://eccc-msc.github.io/msc-animet/?layers=GDPS.ETA_PN;0.75;0;1;0;1,GDPS.DIAG_NW_PT3H;0.75;0;1;0;1&extent=-11358064,1081878,-7522829,7804193&overlays=Boundaries&range=80,26,l,PT3H Pretty cool you can zoom way in too on the new precip maps as well

Piggybacking on this... the precip maps have changed for CMC https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html This doesn't exist anymore. Got an upgrade looks like... New link is there at the old one

Fwiw, 12z UKIE is a swing and a miss

I see a 30kt barb at DCA... looks like storm force winds on the Bay

12z GFS is quite rainy. Looks pretty windy as well on the Bay and Potomac

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025 The system we have been monitoring (Invest 95L) over the tropical central Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized thunderstorm activity and a low-level center to be considered a tropical cyclone. This system is far from land, roughly 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. An ASCAT pass from around 12Z showed peak winds between 35 and 40 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Jerry. Convective bands are increasing around the center, and the strongest winds are on the storm's east side. Jerry is moving quickly westward at about 21 kt on the south-southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge. A turn to the west-northwest with a gradual reduction in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days as Jerry nears the southwestern edge of the ridge. This should bring the core near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. Around that time, the models show a deep-layer trough amplifying over the western Atlantic, which should erode the ridge. In response to the pattern change, Jerry is forecast to turn northward over the west-central Atlantic this weekend. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the model consensus through 72 hours and in best agreement with HCCA and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean, which have been performing quite well so far this year. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor Jerry as there is uncertainty on how close the core of the system will get to the islands later this week. The environmental conditions appear favorable for the system to strengthen during the next couple of days with the upper-level winds appearing light, waters quite warm, and abundant surrounding moisture. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a hurricane in a day or two before its closest approach to the northern Leeward Islands. After the system passes by the islands, the models diverge significantly with some solutions showing Jerry moving into stronger shear while others keep it in a favorable upper-level wind pattern. For now, the official forecast shows no change in strength from days 3 to 5, but confidence is low for that portion of the intensity forecast. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is forecast to pass near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday. Interests there should monitor the progress of the storm as there is a risk of wind, surf, and rainfall impacts. Watches may be required for a portion of that area later today or tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 11.5N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 12.3N 47.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 13.5N 51.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 14.9N 54.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 16.5N 57.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 18.1N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 19.8N 61.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 24.4N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 29.4N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 44.6W ABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry as Tropical Storm Watches could be required later today or tonight. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of the newly formed Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 44.6 West. Jerry is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at[X].shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

@andyhb

Nice win after a shaky 1st quarter

Frosty tonight out west URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1147 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025 MDZ509-510-VAZ503-504-WVZ501-503-505-506-020000- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0008.251002T0600Z-251002T1300Z/ Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Western Grant-Western Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 1147 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In Virginia, Highland County. In West Virginia, Pendleton, Western Grant, and Western Mineral Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

Just got off night shift... so a bit late as well DCA: +1.8 NYC: +1.4 BOS: +1.3 ORD: +2.5 ATL: +1.7 IAH: +1.8 DEN: +1.3 PHX: +1.9 SEA: +0.3

@mappy https://eos.org/articles/new-usgs-map-offers-an-interactive-look-at-the-rocks-beneath-our-feet I think you might like this

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025 The organization of the depression has not changed much since this morning. Some deep convection has flared up this afternoon near the estimated center, which appears broad in the 850-mb flight-level wind data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. The earlier scatterometer winds and more recent aircraft data do not suggest the system has intensified. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The center appears to be slightly south and west of previous estimates, with an uncertain initial motion of 315/4 kt. Over the next couple of days, the system should turn more north-northwestward within the flow between an upper trough over the southeast U.S. and a subtropical ridge over the Atlantic. This forecast brings the depression over the central and northwestern Bahamas through early Monday, then toward the southeast U.S. coast by Tuesday. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, with only a slight nudge westward based on the initial position adjustments during the day. Warm waters and strong upper-level divergence should promote strengthening during the next few days, but this could be tempered by moderate southerly shear over the system from an upper-level trough. The NHC intensity forecast shows steady strengthening through early next week, with the system becoming a hurricane by 60 h. This prediction lies close to the latest IVCN and HCCA aids. There is still above-average uncertainty in the details of the long-range forecast. In general, the models agree that the presence of Hurricane Humberto to the east will result in a weakening of the prevailing steering currents, causing the system to slow down and meander near the southeast U.S. coast on Tuesday. While the chances of a landfall appear lower than yesterday, there are still some hurricane regional models and ensemble solutions that show this possibility. Given the expected asymmetric storm structure, a risk of significant heavy rainfall, storm surge, and wind impacts exists for the southeast U.S. coast even if the storm center remains offshore. The increased track spread at 96-120 h is related to whether the system feels the effects of an amplifying upper-level trough behind Humberto over the western Atlantic. While many global models show a sharp eastward turn and acceleration away from land, the system fails to be captured by the trough in the 12z ECMWF and lingers offshore. The NHC track forecast at days 4-5 maintains a consensus approach and shows a slower eastward motion, but future track adjustments are likely as confidence increases. The system may be in close proximity to fronts by the end of the period, so extratropical transition could begin around or shortly after day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas through Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of the east coast of central Florida beginning Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 2. Rainfall will continue to impact eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and the Bahamas through the weekend, which will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are possible in the higher terrain. 3. There is a significant threat of heavy rainfall early next week from portions of the east coast of Florida northward into the Carolinas, which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding. 4. The depression is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it is closest to the southeast U.S. coast early next week, where there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 22.2N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 23.3N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 24.9N 77.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 28.5N 78.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 30.0N 78.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 30.8N 78.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 31.1N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 31.5N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

000 WTNT43 KNHC 272044 TCDAT3 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 500 PM AST Sat Sep 27 2025 Humberto has quickly strengthened during the past several hours. A very symmetric ring of cloud tops colder than -70 deg C now surrounds the clear eye of the hurricane. At 1800 UTC, the TAFB subjective Dvorak analysis was 7.0/140 kt. Most of the objective techniques like the UW-CIMSS ADT and AIDT, as well as the SAB subjective Dvorak fix supported a slightly lower intensity, closer to 130 kt. However, since that time, cloud tops around Humberto have gotten colder and the objective estimates have increased. Therefore, the intensity has been set at 140 kt, making Humberto the second category 5 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. Internal factors like eyewall replacement cycles will likely dominate Humberto's intensity for the next day or two, so fluctuations in maximum wind speeds are expected. All of the intensity guidance indicates that some slow weakening is expected to begin by Monday, before Humberto begins to interact with a mid-latitude trough on Tuesday. The cyclone should then begin its extratropical transition shortly thereafter, resulting in a quicker decrease in maximum winds but an expansion of the overall wind field. Overall, little change was needed to the official forecast aside from showing a higher intensity for the first day or two. Only a slight westward adjustment was made to the track forecast. Humberto is moving slightly faster, but westward, near 9 kt. The hurricane is still forecast to move around the subtropical ridge for the next few days before it interacts with the aforementioned trough and accelerates quickly northeastward. The spread in the model track guidance has increased since the last advisory, particularly with regard to how fast Humberto will accelerate northeastward in 4 or 5 days. Confidence in that aspect of the forecast has therefore decreased, even though little change was made to the official forecast. The NHC forecast remains generally based on a blend of the GDMI, the AIGEFS and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 22.9N 61.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 23.5N 62.7W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 24.7N 64.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 26.2N 66.1W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 28.0N 67.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 30.0N 68.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 32.1N 68.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 36.1N 62.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 42.5N 46.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Bookbinder

BULLETIN Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 500 PM AST Sat Sep 27 2025 ...HUMBERTO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 61.1W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Humberto. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 61.1 West. Humberto is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is anticipated on Sunday. Humberto is forecast to then turn northward and move west of Bermuda by Tuesday evening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Humberto is now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Humberto will likely remain a powerful major hurricane for the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Bermuda beginning tonight and continuing through next week. Swells from Humberto will also affect the U.S. East Coast beginning Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Bookbinder/D. Zelinsky

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025 Visible satellite images and surface observations suggest that Invest 94L is gradually organizing and beginning to develop a low-level circulation near eastern Cuba with estimated maximum winds of about 30 kt. Although the system does not meet the criteria of a tropical cyclone currently, it is expected to become one during the next day or so. In addition, the system is likely to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas this weekend and potential impacts to portions of the southeast U.S. early next week. Therefore, NHC is now initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories for this disturbance. The system has been moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt during the past 12 to 24 hours. However, this motion is expected to change as the disturbance is forecast to turn northward in southerly flow between a large-scale trough over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over the central-western Atlantic. This track should take the system across the central and northwestern Bahamas over the weekend. The models are in good agreement through that time period, but they diverge significantly early next week when the synoptic pattern becomes complicated. If the system moves on the fast side of the guidance, it will likely be more influenced by the U.S. trough that is expected to cut off. In that scenario, the disturbance would move inland over the southeast U.S. early next week. Conversely, if the system moves on the slow side of the guidance, Humberto's circulation will cause the steering currents to collapse, resulting in this system stalling near the southeast coast or drifting eastward. The NHC track forecast lies roughly between these scenarios, in best agreement with EMXI, but confidence is very low in the days 4 and 5 positions. Strengthening is likely to be slow in the short term due to the current land interaction and some southerly shear. However, gradual intensification seems like a good bet this weekend and on Monday while the system tracks over the Gulf Stream and within a diffluent upper-level wind pattern. The NHC intensity forecast lies close to the hurricane regional and consensus models and shows the system reaching hurricane strength early next week. It should be emphasized that the long-range intensity forecast depends largely on where the system is and the degree of land interaction at those periods, and therefore, is of low confidence. Given the higher-than-usual uncertainty in the forecast track and intensity of the system, NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been collecting data over the western Atlantic since yesterday, and additional upper-air launches are occurring. This data collection will continue through the weekend to help improve the model guidance for this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm this weekend and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches, respectively, have been issued. Rainfall associated with this system will impact eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and the Bahamas through the weekend. 2. There is an increasing threat of heavy rainfall early next week from coastal Georgia through the Carolinas and into the southern Mid-Atlantic states, which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding. 3. The system is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it approaches the southeast U.S. coast early next week, where there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts. Residents in that area should monitor updates to the forecast and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 20.9N 74.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 27/0600Z 21.7N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 27/1800Z 22.7N 75.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 28/0600Z 24.1N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 25.6N 76.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 27.4N 77.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 29.7N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 31.8N 78.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 32.3N 79.3W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

DCA 2.5" QPF on the 12z EPS mean through next 10 days