yoda

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 95.4W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas from Sargent to Port Bolivar. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent to Port Bolivar A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CDT (1700 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 95.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A north-northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move inland over the Upper Texas coast later today, and move farther inland tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before the center moves onshore. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulation of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum of 15 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas into far southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area this afternoon and evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

NHC only has a yellow tag on it... 30% before "landfall" late tonight... Maybe it will be reviewed after the season but I think its too late This was the NHC 8am disco on it:

I don't think it will have enough time to develop into a TD before it moves inland later tonight

I dont think that LWX will change anything though

I dunno... radarscope has the line reformed and heading towards us

May get a quick shower... its getting a little dark here

Pretty nice line approaching the i95 corridor

Oooooh a very dangerous storm designation! Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 343 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 VAC043-061-107-112015- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0654.000000T0000Z-190911T2015Z/ Loudoun VA-Clarke VA-Fauquier VA- 343 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUDOUN...SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE AND NORTH CENTRAL FAUQUIER COUNTIES... At 342 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Delaplane, or 17 miles east of Front Royal, moving east at 35 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. Locations impacted include... Sky Meadows State Park, Paris, and Upperville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3889 7797 3907 7796 3906 7789 3902 7766 3880 7781 3884 7793 TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 271DEG 32KT 3899 7787 HAIL...1.00IN WIND...80MPH

Maybe I95 corridor in next couple of hours? Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 337 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 VAC043-061-107-187-112015- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0654.000000T0000Z-190911T2015Z/ Loudoun VA-Clarke VA-Warren VA-Fauquier VA- 337 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUDOUN...SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE...NORTHEASTERN WARREN AND NORTHWESTERN FAUQUIER COUNTIES... At 337 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Delaplane, or 12 miles east of Front Royal, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Middleburg, The Plains, Delaplane, Linden, Marshall, Saint Louis, Howellsville, Rectortown, Blue Mountain, Halfway, Upperville, Markham, Bethel, Ashville, Paris and Ada. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3890 7808 3901 7808 3906 7801 3907 7797 3906 7789 3902 7766 3880 7781 3886 7800 TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 286DEG 16KT 3898 7797 HAIL...1.00IN WIND...70MPH

EURO 1006mb SLP vs GFS 954mb Plus EURO comes from a devloping low off of the just NW of PR at 192... GFS has the TC from before the Windward Islands

12z EURO would like to know about these tropical systems you are talking about... finally develops a weak system Days 9 and 10... but it's nothing like the 12z GFS -- not even close

Is turtlehurricane okay? Haven't seen him since Dorian roared by

Good to see you again

93/71/100 at DCA as of 2pm... yuck

Nope... it will be close, but stay just offshore

And limelight

It's like a family reunion in here lol

This is correct

You should post more

Won't be around for long, but TS Fernand has formed in the W GOM... will move west and make landfall in NE MX and dissipate in about 72 hours BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fernand Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 100 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 95.3W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northeast coast of Mexico from La Pesca to Barra del Tordo and from Barra El Mezquital to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings could be required later today for portions of these areas. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 95.3 West. Fernand is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward the west-northwest is forecast tonight and Wednesday. This motion could bring the center of Fernand near or over the coast of northeastern Mexico late Wednesday. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is forecast before the system moves inland. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Fernand this afternoon to provide more information on the intensity. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (170 km) mainly to the west of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area late tonight or early Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Squalls with gusts to tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast. RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. This rainfall may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods. South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

And ofc NJwx85 brings up Sandy... ofc

Believe that was SENC

Sandy was worse

To be honest, probably won't be for a couple days

At the risk of being called out, I hope yours is next