yoda

What is that from?

00z CMC was a move SE by about 75 miles for Sunday... around 0.5" QPF now for just south of EZF into S MD... DCA and BWI near 0.15" total 00z GFS also a SE move compared to 18z... 0.5" line barely into S MD... barely any precip (0.15") back into i95 corridor and the metros

Quite a crushing... 2"+ for many 00z 3km NAM is pretty good too... over an inch for many Precip comes in hot and heavy around dawn Sunday

12z UKIE now looks like the 12z GFS ... but was a sig bump NW as well comparing the 12z UKIE precip map to the 00z one

12z CMC kind of strikes a balance between the 12z twin NAMs and the 12z GFS... CHO to EZF to DCA corridor gets some nice rain around 1"... looks like there are some up to 2" that get lucky

12z NAM QPF through 00z MON

12z 3km NAM pretty good for the region besides NW MD/E WV with rain on Sunday... around or just over 0.5" QPF

00z 3km NAM would also be acceptable... 00z NAM is nice for BR and east... but is almost 12-24 hours slower than the 3km NAM run

12z NAM at the end of its run brings a bit more rain to the i95 corridor from EZF to DCA than the 06z run did for this weekend FWIW... but its not much tbh. SE MD and EZF and south still have the best bet for rain this weekend

Nice to see blue sky as the sun sets and the wind picks up

Dang... that's nice to hear... hopefully it comes to fruition

Just have to hope that there is a decent amount of cold air nearby and we are good for blast off into winter

12z GFS agrees... but moves it far enough to our SE that it doesn't affect our region... hits SE VA pretty hard on Sunday

Yes please

does look nice but then opens up and becomes a cutter... but right after brings a nice cold shot

Radar looks pretty nice for all

Decent rain right now outside in West Springfield

00z NAM basically cuts the LWX CWA in half... if you're along and east of the BR towards the Bay... 0.5 to 1 inch of rain. West of BR out towards the i81 corridor and into parts of W and C MD... well... good luck. 00z 3km NAM a little better for those west of the BR, but not by much 02z HRRR at LR, FWIW, seems to suggest the "deluge" starts right after lunch with rain amounts approaching an inch along i95 corridor by 20z tomorrow afternoon

My brother was at the game last night too... he was down the 1B line And congrats Nats fans...

But ends up having another nice rainer Monday-Tuesday of next week for us

Melissa was able to transition from a STS to a TS before becoming post-tropical soon Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 500 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 Convection has continued to persist near the center of Melissa throughout the day, and only in the past few hours have the affects of increasing westerly shear begun to erode the convection from the western side of the cyclone. A pair of scatterometer passes late this morning showed that the wind field associated with the storm had contracted, with the strongest winds occurring within 50 n mi of the center. They also revealed that the radius of maximum winds had decreased to 20 n mi. Based on these data along with a tropical structure apparent in satellite and microwave data, it is likely that Melissa completed a transition to a tropical cyclone at some point this morning. A recent Dvorak classification from TAFB, an objective estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT, and an earlier scatterometer pass all support an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. The westerly shear beginning to affect Melissa is expected to gradually increase over the next few days. Through tonight, the cyclone will move over waters of 23-24 C. In addition, the upper trough over the storm that has aided in maintaining its convection will weaken and lift northeast of the cyclone over the next day or so. The combination of these factors should cause Melissa to weaken, and the cyclone is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Sunday. The global model intensity forecasts appear to be capturing the strongest winds in a frontal zone well-removed to the northeast of Melissa and not directly associated with the cyclone itself. Thus, the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, and continues to be lower than the global model guidance. Melissa is moving east-northeastward, or 070/10 kt. The increasing westerly flow will cause the cyclone to gradually accelerate through Monday. This motion will continue, with a slight turn to the east in a few days, just before the cyclone is absorbed by a frontal zone. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and in the middle of the various consensus aids. Ongoing hazards from coastal flooding will continue to be covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast offices. Key Messages: 1. Although Melissa is forecast to weaken and move away from the east coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coasts around times of high tide for the remainder of the weekend. For more information, see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices at weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 38.4N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 39.0N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 39.8N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0600Z 40.7N 55.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1800Z 41.6N 51.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1800Z 42.4N 39.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE $$ Forecaster Latto

Good placement of the HP for some early winter precip too

lol

Hope the day gets better for you