yoda

Well, it was a good run for the Nats... hope Scherzer neck is okay. Sucks to see the Astros win it all again barring a gem from Strasburg in Game 6 Tuesday night in Houston as the bats have gone ice cold after Game 2

@high risk @Kmlwx Looks like one more chance Froday force severe storm... SPC day 4-8 disco mentions the chance

Evening updated disco from LWX:

LWX in their AFD did mention a slight chance of a weak spinup

Since there were no watches or warnings in effect, advisories are issued at the normal hours

Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico has developed a well-defined circulation. In addition, a cluster of strong convection is located near and to the northeast of the low-level center. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Seventeen. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, and it is possible based on last night's scatterometer data that this is conservative. A deep-layer baroclinic trough over the southern Plains states should steer the cyclone north-northeastward with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days, with the center crossing the northern Gulf coast tonight or Saturday morning. The track guidance is in good agreement, and the forecast track lies close to the various consensus models. A surface cold front associated with the baroclinic trough is quickly approaching the center of the depression, and the tropical cyclone is expected to merge with the front during the next 12 h. Based on this, the cyclone is expected to become a gale-force post-tropical low before it reaches the northern Gulf coast. The low should weaken after landfall, with dissipation expected just after 48 h. There is a chance that the system could briefly become a tropical storm this afternoon before it merges with the cold front. However, even if this occurs it will make little difference to the impacts on the northern Gulf coast. Key messages: 1. Since depression is expected to merge with a cold front and become post-tropical by tonight, hazards related to wind, rainfall and coastal flooding will be covered by products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices, available at weather.gov FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 25.6N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 28.2N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/1200Z 32.6N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0000Z 38.1N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/1200Z 43.2N 85.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A GALE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 94.4W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products from local National Weather Service forecast offices for information on the non-tropical watches and warnings associated with this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 94.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion toward the north-northeast at a faster forward speed is expected this afternoon through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone should move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and then move over the northern Gulf coast tonight or Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and the depression could become a tropical storm this afternoon. The cyclone is then expected to merge with a cold front and become a post-tropical low with gale-force winds tonight before the center reaches the Gulf coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression this afternoon. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds associated with this system should spread over portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight and Saturday morning. RAINFALL: The depression and rainfall ahead of the system along and north of the frontal boundary across the Central Gulf coast is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches across the Central Gulf coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning. These rains may produce flash flooding across the Central Gulf coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. COASTAL FLOODING: Above-normal tides and associated coastal flooding are possible across portions of the northern Gulf coast. Please see products from local National Weather Service forecast offices for additional information. TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible through tonight across southeast portions of Louisiana and Mississippi into southwest Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

In addition... looks like there could also be another short-lived TC out by the Azores as well per the updated TWO: Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 945 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to update discussion of systems in the Gulf of Mexico and southwest of the Azores. 2. Updated: Recent satellite derived winds indicate that the small non-tropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of the western Azores is producing tropical-storm-force winds near the center. The thunderstorm activity is becoming better organized and if this trend continues a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form later today. The low is forecast to move toward the east-northeast for the next day or so and interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Avila

Should be a short lived TC before it becomes post-tropical in about 12 hours lol

Still no well defined center though still per the 8pm TWO

This is cool... from Cowan https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1187423031238561793

Yeah... but the TWO makes it seem it only has like 24 hours left or so Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a low pressure system located over the Bay of Campeche. However, recent satellite data indicate that the circulation is elongated and not well defined. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression before it merges with a cold front by late Friday. Regardless of development, gale-force winds are expected behind the cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Saturday. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Cangialosi

Nice... enjoy!

12z GFS looks very nice starting next Wednesday wrt temps as the CF comes though on the 30th... 31st and Nov 1st highs are in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area with lows in the 20s and 30s each night... mid 50s to near 60 from the 2nd to the 4th for highs... then back to the upper 40s for the 5th to the 7th for high temps

Fascinating and intriguing... Texas and Oklahoma panhandles have WWA's up for snowfall in late October... wonder when the last time that happened. And its not for just a "dusting" either... its a nice amount of accumulated snow forecasted... here's one of the WWAs: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Amarillo TX 959 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019 ...Snow Expected Across the Texas and parts of the Oklahoma Panhandles... Snow is falling Cimarron County in the Oklahoma Panhandle and the western stack of the Texas Panhandle. Additional snow bands are expected to form across the southern Texas Panhandle, with brief heavy snowfall that could cause reduced visibility in area roadways. There may even be rumbles of thunder in association with the snow. TXZ007-019-242300- /O.EXA.KAMA.WW.Y.0012.191024T1500Z-191025T0600Z/ Moore-Donley- Including the cities of Dumas and Clarendon 959 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Moore and Donley Counties. * WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Friday.

It has about 24-36 hours before it gets absorbed by the front (NHC also states this in their 8am TWO)... sounds like another system that develops in the GOM and then is gone 48 hours later... I think this would be the 3rd system this year that's done that

Looks like 12z EURO is keeping the cutoff low idea through 168

@mattie g will be happy... moderate rain ongoing right now and radar looks good

Especially when its tossing out 2-3" of rain pretty much area wide through 144

I guess @mattie g can change the tag since it reached 4 pages It would be nice to see some more rain... have each system bring 0.5" to 1.0" each time they come through the area and our drought will be lessened

Public Information Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 619 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 ...NWS Damage Survey For 10/20/2019 North Texas Severe Weather Event... Severe thunderstorms erupted on the evening of 10/20/2019 across North Texas ahead of a powerful storm system. A couple of supercells produced tornadoes across parts of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. In summary, the highest rated tornado...an EF-3...struck portions of Dallas County. The other two tornadoes have been rated EF-1 and EF-0. A total of 3 tornadoes and one damaging downburst have been surveyed. Additional surveys are possible over the next several days. .Las Colinas to Richardson Tornado... Rating: EF-3 Estimated Peak Wind: 140 mph Path Length /statute/: 15.75 miles Path Width /maximum/: 1300 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: UNKNOWN Start Date: 10/20/2019 Start Time: 20:58 CDT Start Location: 1.8 E of Las Colinas /Dallas County/ Start Lat/Lon: 32.87/-96.91 End Date: 10/20/2019 End Time: 21:30 CDT End Location: 3 E of Richardson /Dallas County/ End Lat/Lon: 32.96/-96.68 The tornado formed in northwest Dallas, near State Highway 348 and Luna Road, where large tree damage and minor roof damage was initially observed. This tornado tracked toward the east-northeast, crossing I-35E and impacted numerous commercial structures between this freeway and Harry Hines Blvd. Extensive damage to many businesses and residences, consistent with EF-1 and EF-2 intensity wind speeds, occurred near the intersection of Harry Hines Blvd and Walnut Hill Lane. As the tornado moved eastward, roughly coincident with Walnut Hill Lane, several gas stations, large commercial buildings, and churches, and at least one multi- story apartment complex sustained significant roof and exterior wall damage. This path of strong EF-1 and EF-2 damage continued east-northeast along Walnut Hill Lane through the Marsh Lane and Midway Road corridors. East of Marsh Lane, the tornado impacted more single-family residences, though commercial structures were still adversely affected at times. Severe damage to large hardwood trees, consistent with EF-1 intensity winds, was observed throughout the damage path from Marsh Lane to US HWY 75. Intermittent EF-1 and EF-2 damage also occurred to a number of residences in this area. Many of these damaged homes were large and/or well-established structures that sustained either partial or total roof loss, accompanied by minor exterior wall damage. This damage was consistent with 110-125 mph tornado winds. Within one concentrated region of EF-2 damage along Northaven Road west of US HWY 75, a particular single-family home was surveyed with total roof loss, and multiple collapsed exterior walls. The survey team determined that this damage was consistent with low-end EF-3 intensity winds of approximately 140 mph. This was the only structure that was assigned an EF-3 rating for this tornado. The tornado continued eastward, toward US HWY 75 and produced significant roof damage to several businesses near US HWY 75 including office low-rise buildings, a car dealership, and a Home Depot. Damage here was assigned an EF-2 intensity. The tornado crossed over the southern part of the Texas Instruments campus and then began to turn more northeastward and parallel Greenville Avenue. Tree and roof damage consistent with EF-1 occurred as it crossed I-635. Several glass windows were blown out at a mid-rise office building. The tornado crossed an apartment complex near Walnut Street and Greenville Avenue where dozens of units had sections of missing roof consistent with EF-1 damage of 95 to 110 mph. The tornado moved across the Cutters Point apartment complex where numerous units experienced significant roof loss consistent with 115 mph or EF-2 damage. Another low-rise office building saw numerous windows blown out on all sides. The tornado continued into the Richland Park, Lakes of Buckingham, Richland Meadows, and College Park residential subdivisions where widespread tree and roof damage consistent with 80 to 95 mph winds occurred. A few homes in this area saw complete or total roof loss where winds were estimated at 110 mph or EF-1. The tornado began to weaken and took a sharp turn to the north near Richardson Square where it tracked to the Huffhines Park areas. Mostly tree damage occurred here with winds estimated near 70 mph or EF-0. The track then turned to the west and became very narrow near Duck Creek with the tornado dissipating as it crossed Jupiter Rd. The tornado had a continuous track for 32 minutes, tracked for just over 15 miles, produced maximum winds of 140 mph, with a maximum width of three-quarters of a mile.

What's interesting is in the PNS... it was given an EF3 rating because of the damage to one house

12z EURO looks like it... ugh... 850 hPa temperature anomaly on Days 9 and 10 (October 30th and 31st) are +8 to +12, respectively

Almost freezes at DCA... IAD is 27... RIC reach 32... BWI 33 Cold (highs in the 40s) for a few days... then back to 65-70 degrees in the first week of November