yoda

does look nice but then opens up and becomes a cutter... but right after brings a nice cold shot

Melissa was able to transition from a STS to a TS before becoming post-tropical soon Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 500 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 Convection has continued to persist near the center of Melissa throughout the day, and only in the past few hours have the affects of increasing westerly shear begun to erode the convection from the western side of the cyclone. A pair of scatterometer passes late this morning showed that the wind field associated with the storm had contracted, with the strongest winds occurring within 50 n mi of the center. They also revealed that the radius of maximum winds had decreased to 20 n mi. Based on these data along with a tropical structure apparent in satellite and microwave data, it is likely that Melissa completed a transition to a tropical cyclone at some point this morning. A recent Dvorak classification from TAFB, an objective estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT, and an earlier scatterometer pass all support an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. The westerly shear beginning to affect Melissa is expected to gradually increase over the next few days. Through tonight, the cyclone will move over waters of 23-24 C. In addition, the upper trough over the storm that has aided in maintaining its convection will weaken and lift northeast of the cyclone over the next day or so. The combination of these factors should cause Melissa to weaken, and the cyclone is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Sunday. The global model intensity forecasts appear to be capturing the strongest winds in a frontal zone well-removed to the northeast of Melissa and not directly associated with the cyclone itself. Thus, the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, and continues to be lower than the global model guidance. Melissa is moving east-northeastward, or 070/10 kt. The increasing westerly flow will cause the cyclone to gradually accelerate through Monday. This motion will continue, with a slight turn to the east in a few days, just before the cyclone is absorbed by a frontal zone. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and in the middle of the various consensus aids. Ongoing hazards from coastal flooding will continue to be covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast offices. Key Messages: 1. Although Melissa is forecast to weaken and move away from the east coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coasts around times of high tide for the remainder of the weekend. For more information, see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices at weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 38.4N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 39.0N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 39.8N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0600Z 40.7N 55.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1800Z 41.6N 51.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1800Z 42.4N 39.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE $$ Forecaster Latto

Good placement of the HP for some early winter precip too

We should start impeachment proceedings as to why the site is down again

Looks like it lol

From today's AFD re September rainfall records:

12z GFS doesn't have much in the MDR developing after Lorenzo recurves way out to sea in the middle of the ATL... there looks to be a system way out that forms and meanders in the Yucatan Peninsula as we get towards the end of the first week of October... and then looks like some homebrew at the very end of the run

Place holder for now BWI: 10/28 DCA: 11/11 IAD: 10/28 RIC: 11/06 Tiebreaker: 12.26"

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Updated for the low pressure area near the Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Updated: A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure area located between Barbados and Tobago, is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization. In addition, recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Triple phase LMAO

Also because the upper air environment and upper level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development once the wave gets to near the Caribbean Sea

And landfall too? Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA... Surface observations indicate that the depression has strengthened as it nears the coast and has become Tropical Storm Imelda, with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 km/h). A National Ocean Service observing site at Freeport, Texas, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 95.3W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brennan/Brown

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 95.4W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas from Sargent to Port Bolivar. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent to Port Bolivar A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CDT (1700 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 95.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A north-northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move inland over the Upper Texas coast later today, and move farther inland tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before the center moves onshore. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulation of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum of 15 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas into far southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area this afternoon and evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

NHC only has a yellow tag on it... 30% before "landfall" late tonight... Maybe it will be reviewed after the season but I think its too late This was the NHC 8am disco on it:

I don't think it will have enough time to develop into a TD before it moves inland later tonight

EURO 1006mb SLP vs GFS 954mb Plus EURO comes from a devloping low off of the just NW of PR at 192... GFS has the TC from before the Windward Islands

12z EURO would like to know about these tropical systems you are talking about... finally develops a weak system Days 9 and 10... but it's nothing like the 12z GFS -- not even close

Is turtlehurricane okay? Haven't seen him since Dorian roared by

Nope... it will be close, but stay just offshore

And limelight

It's like a family reunion in here lol

This is correct

You should post more

Won't be around for long, but TS Fernand has formed in the W GOM... will move west and make landfall in NE MX and dissipate in about 72 hours BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fernand Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 100 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 95.3W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northeast coast of Mexico from La Pesca to Barra del Tordo and from Barra El Mezquital to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings could be required later today for portions of these areas. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 95.3 West. Fernand is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward the west-northwest is forecast tonight and Wednesday. This motion could bring the center of Fernand near or over the coast of northeastern Mexico late Wednesday. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is forecast before the system moves inland. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Fernand this afternoon to provide more information on the intensity. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (170 km) mainly to the west of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area late tonight or early Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Squalls with gusts to tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast. RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. This rainfall may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods. South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

And ofc NJwx85 brings up Sandy... ofc