yoda

LWX is no longer issuing Freeze Warnings for anyone in the CWA until next Spring... saying growing season is over for all

Yay models are back to being an hour earlier Looks like 00z EURO says just kidding about the snow (@weathafella mentioned it already in the SNE forum)

Is it just me... or this would look good come December?

Get that N Plains HP here faster or farther east and we're good

I like the large sprawling 1046mb HP in the Plains at 144 on the 12z EURO... hopefully we get more of those this winter. 850 temp analomies range from -5 to -15 late next week

DC and BWI and IAD all under Freeze Warnings for tonight... if they don't hit 32 tonight, they probably will tomorrow night @WxUSAF better get those charts ready lol

Freeze Warnings up for tonight for DC/BALT metros and BR east URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 917 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ036-037-052>057- 505-506-020500- /O.UPG.KLWX.FZ.A.0002.191102T0600Z-191102T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0002.191102T0600Z-191102T1300Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys- Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Nelson-Albemarle- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling 917 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central, northern and southern Maryland and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

Mystics will go back to back

You are correct. NHC will begin advisories on STS Rebekah at 5pm

In addition... looks like there could also be another short-lived TC out by the Azores as well per the updated TWO: Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 945 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to update discussion of systems in the Gulf of Mexico and southwest of the Azores. 2. Updated: Recent satellite derived winds indicate that the small non-tropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of the western Azores is producing tropical-storm-force winds near the center. The thunderstorm activity is becoming better organized and if this trend continues a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form later today. The low is forecast to move toward the east-northeast for the next day or so and interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Avila

Should be a short lived TC before it becomes post-tropical in about 12 hours lol

Still no well defined center though still per the 8pm TWO

This is cool... from Cowan https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1187423031238561793

Yeah... but the TWO makes it seem it only has like 24 hours left or so Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a low pressure system located over the Bay of Campeche. However, recent satellite data indicate that the circulation is elongated and not well defined. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression before it merges with a cold front by late Friday. Regardless of development, gale-force winds are expected behind the cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Saturday. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Cangialosi

12z GFS looks very nice starting next Wednesday wrt temps as the CF comes though on the 30th... 31st and Nov 1st highs are in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area with lows in the 20s and 30s each night... mid 50s to near 60 from the 2nd to the 4th for highs... then back to the upper 40s for the 5th to the 7th for high temps

Fascinating and intriguing... Texas and Oklahoma panhandles have WWA's up for snowfall in late October... wonder when the last time that happened. And its not for just a "dusting" either... its a nice amount of accumulated snow forecasted... here's one of the WWAs: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Amarillo TX 959 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019 ...Snow Expected Across the Texas and parts of the Oklahoma Panhandles... Snow is falling Cimarron County in the Oklahoma Panhandle and the western stack of the Texas Panhandle. Additional snow bands are expected to form across the southern Texas Panhandle, with brief heavy snowfall that could cause reduced visibility in area roadways. There may even be rumbles of thunder in association with the snow. TXZ007-019-242300- /O.EXA.KAMA.WW.Y.0012.191024T1500Z-191025T0600Z/ Moore-Donley- Including the cities of Dumas and Clarendon 959 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Moore and Donley Counties. * WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Friday.

It has about 24-36 hours before it gets absorbed by the front (NHC also states this in their 8am TWO)... sounds like another system that develops in the GOM and then is gone 48 hours later... I think this would be the 3rd system this year that's done that

Looks like 12z EURO is keeping the cutoff low idea through 168

Especially when its tossing out 2-3" of rain pretty much area wide through 144

I guess @mattie g can change the tag since it reached 4 pages It would be nice to see some more rain... have each system bring 0.5" to 1.0" each time they come through the area and our drought will be lessened

12z EURO looks like it... ugh... 850 hPa temperature anomaly on Days 9 and 10 (October 30th and 31st) are +8 to +12, respectively

Almost freezes at DCA... IAD is 27... RIC reach 32... BWI 33 Cold (highs in the 40s) for a few days... then back to 65-70 degrees in the first week of November

What is that from?

Just have to hope that there is a decent amount of cold air nearby and we are good for blast off into winter

Yes please