yoda

Looks hooky down by Falmouth ETA: Just as I say that... STW pops up and reports from EM of numerous trees down in Spotsylvania county

STW for Eastern Montgomery and Howard counties till 945pm

ENH remains... tor probs dropped to 5%... still 45% wind though

TW NE Louisa County

STW up for Montgomery and Howard counties in MD

Watching down by the EZF and Orange/Culpepper/Faquiuer county area... just got warned and zooming NE at 75mph

TOG in Mecklenburg County Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Wakefield VA 759 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 VAC117-010030- /O.CON.KAKQ.TO.W.0052.000000T0000Z-191101T0030Z/ Mecklenburg VA- 759 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM EDT FOR WESTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY... At 757 PM EDT, tornado producing storms were located along a line extending from Buffalo Springs to near Clarksville, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. These tornadic storms will be near... Chase City and Boydton around 815 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by these tornadic storms include Fairview, Nelson, Rogers Corner, Spanish Grove, Buffalo Junction, Finchley, Finneywood, Baskerville, Skipwith and John H Kerr Reservoir. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3657 7873 3658 7872 3664 7871 3667 7870 3668 7870 3669 7868 3669 7865 3664 7858 3664 7856 3670 7865 3683 7855 3688 7848 3669 7825 3654 7857 3654 7873 TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 237DEG 46KT 3663 7865 3661 7863 TORNADO...OBSERVED HAIL...<.75IN

Really? That seems... surprising

Storm was moving NE earlier... now turning and moving east per latest SWS near Culpepper

STW Carroll/Frederick/Howard/Montgomery/Loudoun counties till 815pm... possible TOR wording in warning BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 724 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Western Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Howard County in central Maryland... Western Montgomery County in central Maryland... Frederick County in north central Maryland... Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 815 PM EDT. * At 724 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Carroll Valley to Middleburg, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Frederick, Gaithersburg, Leesburg, Westminster, Damascus, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Thurmont, Poolesville, Emmitsburg, Harry Grove Stadium, Ashburn, Montgomery Village, Sterling, North Potomac, Ballenger Creek and Countryside. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for central and north central Maryland...northern Virginia...and the Panhandle of West Virginia. Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. LAT...LON 3972 7696 3903 7725 3906 7733 3899 7740 3896 7773 3900 7788 3930 7775 3933 7768 3938 7765 3961 7757 3967 7749 3969 7751 3972 7747 TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 258DEG 40KT 3971 7743 3899 7773 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...<.75IN WIND...60MPH

Storm moving into Fauquier/Madison/Culpepper Counties that just got STW has history of producing tree damage in Oak Park

Mesoscale Discussion 2135 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Areas affected...northern Virginia...Maryland...southeast Pennsylvania Concerning...Tornado Watch 686...690... Valid 312314Z - 010115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 686, 690 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging storms, including tornadoes, is increasing across the area. DISCUSSION...Storms continue to evolve along the rapidly advancing cold front, into a warm and marginally unstable air mass. Area VWPs show extreme shear in place, with 0-1 SRH of 500-750 m2/s2 favoring both QLCS and isolated supercells. Minor capping has limited strong/severe storm coverage, but increasing large-scale lift should allow for an increasing severe threat through the evening. Damaging winds are likely, and a few tornadoes are possible as well with these fast-moving storms. For areas east of the ongoing tornado watches, including NJ and DE, the severe threat is lesser, but still cannot be ruled out as the front approaches a cooler, less-unstable air mass near the coast. Given such extreme shear and lift, a few severe storms may persist farther east than expected, and additional watches and/or extensions may be considered this evening. ..Jewell.. 10/31/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

An hour away lol... these storms are moving NE anywhere from 50 to 70 mph

New MCD states threat for damaging winds and tornadoes is increasing across the region

That's headed NE toward DC

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 505 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Western Washington County in north central Maryland... East central Allegany County in western Maryland... Northwestern Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Northeastern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 505 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 8 miles southeast of Fort Ashby, or 9 miles northeast of Romney, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Paw Paw, Great Cacapon, Johnsons Mill, Omps, Three Churches, Valley View, Higginsville, Fishers Bridge, Magnolia, Rock Gap, Stotlers Crossroads, Highland Ridge, Points, Largent, Smith Crossroads, Levels and Berryville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

More sun poking out here

New MCD sounds a bit ominous

Sun and some blue sky amongst breaks in the clouds here now

First STW issued by LWX

ENH remains at 2000 SPC OTLK

I see the 18z GSO sounding up on SPC... but no LWX yet

I want the hatched tornado at 2000 OTLK if we were magically going to get hatching

Didn't see that mentioned in the AFD... guess you got notice through work?

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 238 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over Lake Erie this afternoon will track northeastward up the Saint Lawrence River valley through Friday, dragging a powerful cold front across the Mid-Atlantic this evening. High pressure will build in for Friday through Saturday. A much weaker and drier cold front will cross the region Saturday night. Another high pressure will build across the region Sunday through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strengthening, dynamic storm system is currently crossing the eastern United States. So far, we`ve only seen some periods of rain and considerably warmer-than-normal temperatures with a gusty south breeze. However, the cold front will cross the region late this afternoon and this evening. Very strong wind fields in excess of 50 knots very close to the surface are resulting in plenty of shear, and the powerful cold front will also feature a dramatic pressure rise of 10 mb or more in just a couple hours immediately behind it. The warm and moist air mass with PW`s closing in on 2 inches is trying to destabilize, and while its nothing compared to what we get in early summer, enough CAPE and shear are present with the potent dynamics aloft to promote widespread severe weather. Most of this should be in the form of the squall line currently seen on radar over West Virginia stretching southward into the western Carolinas, which will be racing northeastward across our region through this evening. However, just enough instability is present such that a discrete supercell ahead of the main line can`t be completely ruled out this evening. With all the wind present aloft, it won`t take much to bring damaging gusts down to the surface. In addition, the low level shear will bring a risk of quickly spinning up tornadoes right on the main line. A tornado watch may be issued in the next few hours. With the high PW`s, there is a risk of heavy rain and brief minor flooding, though expect the rain to be just brief enough to preclude the issuance of a flash flood watch. Winds may also last or reintensify right behind the squall line and could gust up to 45-50 mph for an hour or so right behind the front. Given the close proximity of this feature to the main squalls, decided to not issue a wind advisory for locations east of the current advisory, but its possible a short- fuse one gets issued to cover this threat in the next few hours. Otherwise, the main advisory should cover the greater period of higher gusts likely at the higher elevations in western VA and WV. Behind the main squall line and winds, clearing skies should take hold in most areas as high pressure builds in. The cold air moving in could reach our highest elevations quickly enough to bring a coating of snow, but this is most likely confined to locations above 4000 feet, such as Spruce Knob. Elsewhere, drying conditions with lows in the 40s can be expected after midnight.