yoda

BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...LORENZO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 35.1W ABOUT 715 MI...1155 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 35.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the northwest is expected late Thursday or Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Karen is still having a tough time establishing and maintaining a well-organized structure. The deep convection which developed over the center earlier this morning has since collapsed, leaving a ragged and disorganized cloud pattern. In addition, a sizable outflow boundary moving away from the eastern part of the circulation suggests that there is dry air within the vortex. The initial intensity is being held at 40 kt, pending possible scatterometer data later this morning and a reconnaissance flight this afternoon. The initial position is a little difficult to locate, but the best estimate of the current motion is 360/13 kt. Karen is moving northward between a mid-level high centered over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low located just east of the Bahamas. This low is expected to slowly retrograde westward, with ridging developing over the western Atlantic by day 3. This change in steering will cause Karen to turn northeastward during the next 48 hours but then make a clockwise loop once it is blocked by the ridge. After day 3, the ridge should force Karen to move west-southwestward. Most of the track models agree on this general scenario. There is some latitudinal spread on days 4 and 5 after the loop occurs, with the HWRF being the most notable outlier by not showing much of a westward motion. The consensus aids, however, have remained fairly steady, and therefore there was no compelling reason to make any significant changes compared to the previous track forecast. Except for the possibility of dry air in the circulation, it's not quite evident why Karen has not been able to sustain organization. Still, the cyclone is expected to move beneath an upper-level anticyclone during the next 24-48 hours, and if the shear does indeed decrease, then some strengthening would be expected. There continues to be a dichotomy among the intensity models, with the dynamical models (including the GFS and ECMWF) keeping the cyclone weak while the statistical-dynamical models still show intensification through days 4 and 5. It's difficult to ignore what's being shown by the global models, since there must be something in the environment that they're deeming to be negative for continued strengthening. The best course of action at this point is to maintain a steady intensity after 48 hours, but it should be noted that what is shown in the official forecast still lies above the ICON intensity consensus and the HCCA corrected consensus aid. Key Messages: 1. Karen will continue to produce heavy rainfall, potentially causing additional flash floods and mudslides, across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today even as the center moves away from the region. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 21.7N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 23.4N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 25.4N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 26.9N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 27.5N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 26.8N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 26.0N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 25.5N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

LWX's AFD from this morning seems to suggest that the models are bringing the furnace next week

And it begins URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Great Falls MT 223 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 MTZ009-010-044-046-048-049-251200- /O.NEW.KTFX.WS.A.0010.190928T0000Z-190930T0000Z/ Northern Rocky Mountain Front-Eastern Glacier-Toole- Eastern Pondera-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Eastern Teton- Including Logan Pass, Marias Pass, Browning, Heart Butte, Cut Bank, Shelby, Sunburst, Brady, Conrad, Bynum, Choteau, Augusta, Fairfield, and Dutton 223 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of 18 to 36 inches, with locally higher amounts in the mountains. Record or near-record temperatures in the teens and 20s with wind chills zero to 15 above zero. North to northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Northern Rockies, Rocky Mountain Front, and adjacent plains of north-central Montana. * WHEN...From Friday evening through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Extreme impacts possible, including to power infrastructure including power lines resulting in widespread power outages, agricultural interests; outdoor recreational interests including camping and hunting activities; and travel. Widespread significant tree damage is possible with heavy wet snow and strong winds impacting trees with foliage. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This early-season winter storm and/or blizzard has the potential to set a new benchmark for snow accumulations, cold temperatures, and resulting impacts for parts of the Northern Rockies and the Rocky Mountain Front. A similar storm in 1934 produced prolific amounts of snow in late September over north-central Montana. An extension and/or expansion of Winter Storm Watches are likely. * CONFIDENCE...High on accumulations, winds, and expected impacts. There is low to moderate confidence on the timing of onset and end of this winter storm event. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Missoula MT 203 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 MTZ002-252015- /O.NEW.KMSO.WS.A.0008.190928T0000Z-190930T0000Z/ West Glacier Region- 203 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total mountain snow accumulations of 1 to 3 feet possible. Total valley snow accumulations of 3 to 9 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Bad Rock Canyon, Essex, Highway 83 Bigfork to Swan Lake, Marias Pass, and Polebridge. * WHEN...From Friday evening through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

Nats magic number to be eliminated from the playoffs after they clinch the WC spot will be 1

If you want some LOLs... check out what the 12z CMC does with Karen

12z GFS doesn't have much in the MDR developing after Lorenzo recurves way out to sea in the middle of the ATL... there looks to be a system way out that forms and meanders in the Yucatan Peninsula as we get towards the end of the first week of October... and then looks like some homebrew at the very end of the run

Appears 12z GFS doesn't even have Karen at all after about Day 4

Place holder for now BWI: 10/28 DCA: 11/11 IAD: 10/28 RIC: 11/06 Tiebreaker: 12.26"

From @griteater in the SE Forum... this would be nice if it were to come true for the winter

6z GFS basically makes Karen a very weak TC that meanders into the Bahamas... Day 5 to Day 7 its barely there and then looks to degenerate into an open wave just before it moves into S FL on Day 8

Ugh... another 90 degree day today... and looks like some more this upcoming weekend with HHH returning Friday-Sunday...

#faithintheflakes

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Strong shear associated with an upper-level trough off the southeast U.S. coast continues to affect Jerry, and the low-level center is exposed to the west-southwest of the main convective mass. Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the intensity remains near 55 kt. However, if the current sheared state persists, then a weakening trend is likely to commence soon. For now, the official forecast will only show a very slow weakening over the next few days. This prediction is somewhat higher than the intensity model consensus. It should be noted that experience has shown that tropical cyclones at subtropical latitudes tend to be more resilient to shear than those in the deep tropics. Jerry has slowed its forward speed and is now moving north- northwestward at around 6 kt. The storm will continue passing through a break in the subtropical ridge through tonight. On Tuesday, a trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast will cause Jerry to turn northward. Within a couple of days, the trough should steer the tropical cyclone northeastward at a faster forward speed. In days 3-5, Jerry should move east-northeastward to eastward while embedded in the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 28.1N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 29.2N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 30.4N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 31.8N 67.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 33.3N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 35.8N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 37.0N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 37.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 68.0W ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 68.0 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue today. A turn to the north is expected tonight followed by a turn to the northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Yet another tropical storm has formed over the Atlantic, this one over the far eastern portion of the basin. The system has been designated as Tropical Storm Lorenzo based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, all of which support tropical-storm strength. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, but its possible this is somewhat conservative since the TAFB classification was a little higher. Recent GMI microwave imagery and ASCAT-C data showed that the low-level center of Lorenzo is on the north side of most of its deep convection. While this disorganized structure may limit how quickly Lorenzo can strengthen in the short-term, the tropical storm is located within a generally favorable environment for intensification. All of the intensity guidance shows Lorenzo becoming a hurricane, but the timing varies from model to model. The official forecast follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and shows Lorenzo reaching hurricane status within 48 h. Continued strengthening is forecast thereafter. No noteworthy changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast. The ASCAT and microwave data were very helpful in determining the location of Lorenzo's center and its forward speed. The cyclone has accelerated and the initial motion estimate is now 275/15 kt. Very little adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast. Lorenzo is still forecast to be steered generally westward to west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. The cyclone will pass well south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast in about 4 days as Lorenzo reaches a break in the ridge. Just like the intensity forecast, the track forecast is based heavily on HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 11.1N 24.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 11.5N 26.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 12.0N 28.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 12.5N 31.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 13.1N 34.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 14.6N 39.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 17.1N 43.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 20.5N 47.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 24.1W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 24.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest is expected starting tonight, and this is forecast to continue through the middle of the week. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should pass well to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Sounds like NHC decided to not drop Karen at 11 but keep it a TC based off the disco

Looks like it's going to end up being a major fish hurricane recurving way out in the Atlantic

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Updated for the low pressure area near the Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Updated: A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure area located between Barbados and Tobago, is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization. In addition, recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Triple phase LMAO

DO NOT WANT BOLDED BELOW... from this afternoon's AFD from LWX... I cut out the portion before the LONG TERM

Also because the upper air environment and upper level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development once the wave gets to near the Caribbean Sea