yoda

BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Rebekah Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 500 PM AST Wed Oct 30 2019 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM REBEKAH FORMS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.3N 40.7W ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Rebekah. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Rebekah was located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 40.7 West. Rebekah is moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h) and is forecast to turn toward the east-northeast tonight. A turn back toward the east and east-southeast is anticipated on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated for the next day or so. Gradual weakening is anticipated thereafter, and Rebekah is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rebekah is forecast to be a post-tropical cyclone when it moves near the Azores in a day or so. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for hazard information in the Azores related to Rebekah. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

You are correct. NHC will begin advisories on STS Rebekah at 5pm

Here are the others I found on the SPC archive for Tornado Watches covering any part of the LWX CWA from November: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20101130 (November 30th, 2010 and went into Dec 1, 2010 as a Tornado Watch was issued for the DC metro at 3:45am on Dec 1st) https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20101116 (Nov 16 2010) https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20061116 (Nov 16, 2006 -- in addition 1630 Day 1 OTLK had the ultra rare hatched TOR for i95 corridor including DC/BALT metros... along with the mention for isolated but potentially strong tornadoes in the 1630 SPC disco) https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20021110 (Nov 11, 2002) Looks like only one for December: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20001216 (Dec 16, 2000) The archive only goes back to 2000 though... so I am sure there were others before 2000 that had tornado watches for any portion of the LWX CWA

Yup... but I was including only LWX CWA counties... looks like in 2010 we had a tornado watch on back to back days in October (26th and 27th)

Here is one... October 27th, 2010 -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20101027

You know she will have pictures of one tomorrow on her table

I believe @Eskimo Joe already called for a tornado watch tomorrow Wonder when the last time we have had a tornado watch issued for the LWX CWA in October or later... will have to look in the SPC archives after work

Sounds like it even though its a secondary threat as they state in the AFD... i posted the rest of it above just before your post

Guess you are in? Rest of disco sounds... scary for Halloween

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts are expected across much of the eastern U.S. Thursday -- particularly from areas along and east of the central and southern Appalachians to the mid Atlantic and Carolinas coastal areas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough crossing the central U.S. at the start of the period will evolve into a deepening closed low with time, as the system shifts quickly east-northeastward across the Midwest, and then into the Northeast overnight. As this occurs, the broader trough surrounding the low will gradually take on a more neutral to slightly negative tilt, through the end of the period. As this occurs, a cold front -- initially trailing from a low near the KY vicinity southward across Alabama to near the mouth of the Mississippi River -- will advance steadily eastward during the day. The front should cross the Appalachian crest by afternoon, as the parent low rapidly deepens and eventually occludes over the Lower Great Lakes area, reaching the Atlantic coast after midnight. This front will focus a band of showers and thunderstorms -- and attendant risk for severe weather primarily along and east of the mountains. ...Portions of the PA/NY vicinity southward/southwestward to the southern Appalachians... A zone of showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period from the mid Ohio Valley/Mid South region south-southwestward to the western Gulf of Mexico, in the vicinity of an advancing surface cold front. A secondary area of showers -- perhaps with some embedded lightning -- will be shifting quickly northeastward across the Carolinas/Virginia vicinity. Only minimal severe risk -- mainly in the form of gusty winds or a brief tornado -- is apparent at this time within either of these areas of convection through the first several hours of the period. With time, the advance of the cold front across the southern, and then the central, Appalachians during the afternoon in conjunction with the strengthening upper system will result in gradual organization of a band of frontal convection. Very strong flow aloft will aid in the convective organization, with upscale evolution toward a semi-continuous band of storms expected. By late afternoon/early evening, storms will likely have become fairly well-organized, crossing south-central and southeastern PA, MD, VA, and the Carolinas along with attendant risk for strong/damaging wind gusts. Low-level wind profiles will become supportive of supercells during the afternoon across the pre-frontal warm sector. While suggestive of some tornado potential, pre-frontal warm-sector storms are largely not anticipated. Still, a few mainly QLCS-type tornadoes will be possible, given the overall dynamic/kinematic set-up -- particularly from late afternoon through mid evening. As storms near the coast overnight, gradual weakening of the convection -- and associated diminishing of the severe risk -- is expected, though limited wind risk will likely extend to near the mid Atlantic/Carolina coasts overnight. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Goss.. 10/30/2019

ENH ISSUED ON 1730 OTLK

Agreed. 12z NAM at 00z THURS says DCA is in the mid 70s.... and then mid 40s with upper 30s back in the i81 corridor at 06z THURS... ETA: 12z 3km NAM does the same as the 12z NAM re temps... DCA is still in the mid 70s at 01z THUR as the line comes in

Line still looks nice as it crosses the i95 corridor at 03z... snow showers ongoing in the far western part of the LWX CWA

12z NAM waits too long... has the line coming through the i81 corridor at 00z Halloween night

Well well surprise surprise @Kmlwx @high risk Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts are possible from the Upper Ohio Valley into portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is expected to mature into a vertically stacked mid-latitude cyclone as it moves through the mid MS and OH Valleys and into eastern Ontario and the Northeast States. Very strong mid/upper-level flow will accompany this system, with a 100+ kt 500-mb jet streak moving throughout its eastern periphery across the TN/OH Valleys and into the Northeast. Surface low associated with this system will likely be centered over the IN/OH border early Thursday with an attendant cold front extending south-southwestward through middle TN and central AL and off the central Gulf Coast. This low will occlude as it moves north-northeastward throughout the day. The attendant cold front will sweep eastward across the eastern CONUS, moving off the East Coast of the CONUS late Thursday night. Thunderstorms are anticipated along the length of this front, some which could be severe. ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic States... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing within the broad pre-frontal warm sector from the Southeast into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Moisture advection ahead of the front will likely result in low 70s dewpoints across the Southeast, upper 60s/low 70s across much of the Mid-Atlantic, and mid 60s as far north as PA and NJ. Diurnal heating will be tempered by abundant cloud cover and antecedent precipitation but ample low-level will still result in modest instability (i.e. MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) ahead of the front. Pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms are anticipated through the mid to late afternoon. Thereafter, the fast-moving cold front will likely catch up to these pre-frontal storms, leading to a consolidation of all the deep convection along the front. The strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the entire region and a few of the pre-frontal storms may be able to organize enough to produce damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. Once storms consolidate along the front, strong forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave trough coupled with vertically veering wind profiles will likely lead to a narrow but well-organized convective line. Strong wind gusts will be the main threat within the line and the highest coverage of severe storms is currently expected across the Mid-Atlantic states, from central PA through western SC. A few tornadoes are possible within the line, particularly across the northern Mid-Atlantic where low-level flow will be strongest. Current HREF guidance suggests the probability of any pre-frontal supercells across central VA and the central Carolinas is low. However, the environmental conditions ahead of the front during the late afternoon support supercell development with any persistent deep convection. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Mosier.. 10/30/2019

If we do get any severe, looks like it would be in the form of damaging winds... don't think there is a tornado threat, but I could be wrong on that

Me lol

For reference -- https://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_2011042728 That tornado was during the 2-3AM time period and tracked 33 miles... probably one of the longest continuous tornado in the LWX CWA

LWX AFD also discusses the threat... saying that even with limited instability, chance for severe storms still there

I assume you all saw SPC outlooked most of us on MRGL for Day 3 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND VIRGINIA/CAROLINA PIEDMONT.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts are possible from the Upper Ohio Valley across the central Appalachians and Virginia/Carolina Piedmont. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will extend from the Upper Midwest into northeast Mexico early Thursday. This shortwave is expected to quickly move northeastward into the Upper Great Lakes while maturing/deepening into a vertically stacked mid-latitude cyclone. By early Friday morning this mature system is expected to be centered over eastern Ontario/southern Quebec. Very strong southwesterly flow aloft will persist throughout the eastern periphery of the system spreading from the mid MS Valley through the TN and OH Valleys and into the Northeast during the period. At the surface, a low initially over the middle OH Valley will quickly move northeastward while occluding. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward across the eastern CONUS, moving off the East Coast of the CONUS late Thursday night. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of this front. Given the very strong flow aloft and strong forcing for ascent, a narrow convective line capable of strong wind gusts is anticipated along the front from the Upper OH Valley across the central Appalachians and Virginia/Carolina Piedmont. Limited instability will preclude higher than 5%/Marginal probabilities for this outlook. ..Mosier.. 10/29/2019

Well, it was a good run for the Nats... hope Scherzer neck is okay. Sucks to see the Astros win it all again barring a gem from Strasburg in Game 6 Tuesday night in Houston as the bats have gone ice cold after Game 2

@high risk @Kmlwx Looks like one more chance Froday force severe storm... SPC day 4-8 disco mentions the chance

Evening updated disco from LWX:

LWX in their AFD did mention a slight chance of a weak spinup

Since there were no watches or warnings in effect, advisories are issued at the normal hours