yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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00z Euro doesn't do much with the first wave... 2nd wave it develops looking at 850mb vorticity but then seems to lose it for a while as it heads just north of DR/Haiti and Cuba... then gets its act together again... looks like once it gets into the Eastern GOM it decides to reappear and strengthen... interesting run
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Terrifying in its overdone as usual... CMC is a crap tropical model And really? You expect the 2nd tropical system to ride over all of Cuba and deepen? Come on...
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2 AM TWO has double lemons Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located just over a hundred miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Kyle, located several hundred miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. 1. A fast-moving tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast speed is likely to limit development while the system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today and Monday and moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. After that time, the system is expected to move more slowly westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea, and upper-level winds could be conducive for development during the middle to latter part of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. 2. Another tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days, and some development will be possible by the middle to latter part of the week as environmental conditions become more conducive while the system is over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Berg
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00z EURO has signs of SLP... two of them in the MDR... but ends up doing next to nothing with them and keeps them very weak (>1008mb)
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CMC is down in Nicaragua and Honduras... and nothing shows up behind it in the MDR. GFS is a TS into the Yucatan and hurricane into Southern Mexico... also with no real tropical systems behind it in the MDR
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lol using the ICON for tropical systems
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Lot of weak TS in there
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Hope we will see some type of this again soon...
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Its just model runs, but none of the 00z runs tonight (EURO/GFS and yes, even the GGEM) show any tropical disturbances or development anywhere besides Josephine disappearing in a few days and maybe Kyle going out to sea in the North Atlantic. Pacific side of things there is some development... and both the Euro and the GFS tonight both show an intense tropical system out there. Seems we may be waiting more towards the first week of September for tropical development out in the CV region. Of course, this could change on the next run of the models... but so far, the Atlantic is quiet. Could it be a ticking time bomb waiting to explode once a strong wave comes off the coast of Africa? Yes, most likely... but models see nothing... for now I'm not trying to downplay the risks or the signs or call bust... far from it. Just calling it as I see it on the models right now. Seems we may have to wait just a lil bit longer for the Atlantic side of the Tropics to rear its ugly head again
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Watch this become Kyle just because Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 1. A broad area of low pressure over eastern North Carolina is forecast to move east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well to the southeast of New England and to the south of the Canadian Maritime provinces over the next several days. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next few days while it moves over warm sea surface temperatures of the Gulf Stream. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Roberts
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I concur... I'm just saying so far there really hasn't been anything of major consequence from this hurricane season besides Isaiah.
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But no major hurricanes and 4 of those storms were crappy TS's that didn't do much at all. Only 2 hurricanes and both were "hits"... but Isaiah was really the first to do something this season IMO Josephine won't amount to much either... she will likely be gone in 4-5 days
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Sounds like Josephine is in the way... but I'm guessing it won't last long
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Looks like next chance for severe might by the Sunday-Monday time frame... LWX mentions potential briefly in their long term disco this evening
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There was a confirmed TOG near Lisbon per radar in updated SWS from KLOT
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Euro SEAS-5 h5 height anamoly forecast for January was vomit-worthy. It was the ensemble mean for January as well. You guys might be able to sneak something... but down south... ugly ETA: From August 1st though
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00z EURO shows nothing in the tropical department either tonight except for a small SLP north of the islands (Leeward) at 240
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00z GFS tonight shows no hurricanes at all during its entire run... there is a tropical disturbance late in the run but it mills around the Yucatan peninsula and never really develops into much of anything due to land interaction... though it tries to develop as the run ends
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Day 2 MRGL risk (Thursday) for a few damaging wind gusts possible
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And 94L is gone pretty much Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaias, located inland over southeastern North Carolina. 1. Showers and thunderstorms have mostly dissipated near a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda. Although a weak area of low pressure is expected to form over the next day or so, abundant dry air surrounding the system is likely to limit significant development. This system is forecast to move northwestward at about 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic today, stall several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda tonight, and then drift southwestward on Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Berg
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NHC disagreed on the 2AM TWO Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Isaias, located just offshore of east-central Florida. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands does not have a surface circulation, and the associated shower activity is not well organized. However, environmental conditions could allow for some slow development of this system during the next several days, with a tropical depression possibly forming later this week. This system is forecast to move northwestward at about 15 mph over the southwestern Atlantic today and on Tuesday and then stall several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda by the middle to latter part of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Confirmed TOG
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Since Day 2 (Sunday) looks meh... here's Day 3 (Monday)
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FWIW, MRGL risk for Sunday and Monday as well from SPC
