yoda

Bump for severe weather risk tomorrow night into Sunday morning per SPC Day 2 OTLK (yes, MRGL risk, but our first chance is here!) @high risk thoughts? Most of us will probably be sleeping anyway lol 1730 Day 2 map and short disco is below... guess we use this for 2020? Or does @Kmlwx want to make a new thread for the new year?

Freezer notice on the 12z GFS after MLK day

GFS OP is decent snow to ice and maybe some drizzle/light rain to end if dry slot doesn't get here first... taking that run and running with it lol ETA: @Chris78 beat me to it

00z GFS sure is stormy and has chances in the D11-16 time period

PW closed tomorrow

Last time I used a protractor was...

Culpepper County Public Schools are already closed tomorrow https://mobile.twitter.com/culpeperschools/status/1214668090203660290

Looks like one more band of some heavy snow

I don't think snow depth maps showed 2 to 5 inches out west

Sorry you didn't

You said anyone outside the higher elevations who got more than an inch, congrats... alot of people did.

Congrats to a good amount of people in this forum then

Huh? Going to be snowing here for at least another hour

Starting to become moderate snow again

Decent banding looks like approaching Manassas

Agree... you can see it on the radar already

Mod snow between Culpepper and Warrenton looks like developing

There does look like some redevelopment of some light snow down towards Culpepper

Looks like small redevelopment near Culpepper

West Springfield at 3pm with +SN

I will enjoy the weekend weather the Euro has spoken about if the EPS is correct about that time period of interest in a decent winter storm

Mesoscale Discussion 0006 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2020 Areas affected...Parts of northern Virginia...central Maryland and south central Pennsylvania Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 071729Z - 071930Z SUMMARY...A 1 to 3 hour period of snow, perhaps occasionally including rates in excess of 1 inch per hour, will impact areas near and west through north of the District of Columbia through 2-4 PM EST. DISCUSSION...Lower/mid tropospheric warm advection ahead of a vigorous short wave trough is contributing to an area of strong lift now beginning to spread east-northeast of the Blue Ridge. Particularly across northern Virginia, central Maryland and adjacent portions of south central Pennsylvania, lift is becoming maximized in the 700-500 mb layer, where forecast soundings indicate temperature and moisture profiles are becoming conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth. Although near surface profiles are initially relatively dry and warm across and northwest of the Washington D.C. metropolitan area, evaporative cooling/melting within an initial burst of heavy snow should cool and saturate this environment sufficiently to allow for a period of accumulating snow. Aided by precipitable water on the order of .4 to .5 inches, this may include snow rates of 1/2 to 1 inch+ per hour, before stronger mid-level ascent spreads east-northeast of the D.C. area. Although this lift may overspread the Baltimore and Philadelphia metropolitan areas later this afternoon, an initially warmer boundary layer (surface temperatures now in the lower/mid 40s) across these areas seem likely to result in decreasing potential for accumulating snow. ..Kerr.. 01/07/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1058 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 MDZ003-004-503-504-VAZ052-053-501-502-505-506-WVZ051>053-071800- Washington-Frederick MD-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Northern Fauquier- Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 1058 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 ...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON... Radar and surface observations just before 11 AM indicated a sudden onset of heavy snow moving across eastern West Virginia, northern Maryland and portions of northern Virginia. Visibility was dropping from unrestricted to a half mile or less in the span of 15 to 30 minutes, with snowfall rates of over one inch per hour reported. This heavy snow is expected to reach Highway 15 by 11:30 AM, and approach Interstate 95 by 1 PM. Remain alert for rapidly changing visiblities and quickly deteriorating road conditions.

I know its not the same... but wasn't the St. Patty's Day storm (March 2017 I think?) the same temp wise? Got into the 40s, snow started instead of rain due to the DP/T depression? Yes, March does not equal January... but that popped up into my mind

That'd be nice... but I don't think there will be any MUCAPE