yoda

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1019 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will pass south of the area this afternoon. High pressure will build over the region Wednesday and hold through the end of the week. Another area of low pressure will pass northeast of the area late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Made a few minor tweaks to tighten the snowfall gradient along the I-95 corridor, speed up the onset timing by an hour or two, as well as nudge totals upward over higher terrain and northern Maryland per upstream obs/latest guidance. Knocked a couple degrees off the hourly temps as well. Otherwise, forecast remains on track. Impressive burst of snow upstream over West Virginia with visibility to 1/4 mile or less, and already reports of accumulations of an inch in under 30 minutes. It`s not the duration or total amounts expected, but the intensity and timing (with the evening commute for the I-95 corridor) that are expected to have a high impact.

Still good to go DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-503>508-VAZ053-054-506-072315- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1700Z-200108T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun- 1004 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts over northern Maryland. * WHERE...The Baltimore and Washington metro area. * WHEN...From noon to 7 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected between 2 PM and 6 PM. * IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected. This will impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates could exceed one inch per hour with visibility around one-quarter mile at times.

I know this is in elevation, but still nice to see PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 945 AM EST TUE JAN 07 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0939 AM SNOW 2 SSW MOUNT STORM 39.25N 79.26W 01/07/2020 M1.0 INCH GRANT WV PUBLIC

"Snow may be heavy at times" is in the zones... been a while

Yup

DC looks to be 0.40 or so on 00z GFS QPF

00z RGEM is lol... DC snowhole

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 957 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain overhead overnight. Low pressure will move quickly northeast across the region Tuesday. Another area of high pressure will transit the region Wednesday and Thursday before a cold front approaches on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... High pressure has settled overhead and it will remain overhead through late tonight. There will be some high clouds ahead of approaching low pressure, but the cloud deck will be thin. Therefore, radiational cooling is expected and min temps are expected to drop into the 20s for most areas to the 30s in the urban areas and near the waters. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Moving into tomorrow, a compact shortwave will approach from the OH/TN Valleys, bringing a period of snow to the region. While the shortwave itself won`t be large in areal extent, it will be a sharp feature, with a very short wavelength (which will lead to strong lift in the zone of differential cyclonic vorticity advection in advance of the wave). Given the short wavelength and the rapid movement of the shortwave, the areal extent of the precipitation is expected to be small, but the precipitation may be rather intense. Expect that snow at least reaches moderate intensity in most locations, and brief bursts of heavy snow can`t be ruled out. Guidance has progressively trended heavier with the QPF over the last few model runs, and some models indicate 1 hourly QPF values in excess of one tenth of an inch will be possible across central Virginia late tomorrow morning and toward northern VA/central MD/eastern WV Tuesday afternoon. As a result, we`ve upped snow totals and raised Winter Weather Advisories for most locations northwest of Interstate 95. For the suburbs of Washington into the Baltimore Metropolitan area, temperatures will be well above freezing to start and this does lower confidence in the forecast. However, the warm layer will be thin so latest thinking is that evaporative cooling and dynamical cooling from heavier precip rates should overcome that warm air. This is why these areas were added into the advisory. Farther south and east confidence lowers due to even warmer conditions preceding the event. Having that been said, a period of accumulating snow is even possible in DC into the southern and eastern suburbs. Also, the Winter Weather Advisory may need to be expanded into western Maryland and the Allegheny Highlands of eastern WV. Across these areas confidence is lower due to a higher criteria 3" for advisories and the fact that the gradient will be near these areas. Having that been said, an impact from accumulating snow is expected. In terms of timing, precip is expected to overspread the area from southwest to northeast, with snow starting across southwestern portions of the forecast area after 8 AM. In any given spot, the snow should only last 4-5 hours, but as was previously mentioned, could come down at a moderate to heavy clip during that time. Expect the snow to move into the metro areas for the mid-late afternoon hours. Temperatures may briefly climb into the upper 30s to near 40 before the precipitation starts, so can`t rule out it starting as a brief period of rain or mixed rain and snow. However, it should quickly change to all snow as the lower atmosphere wet bulbs back into the lower 30s. The only area where it may stay rain for most of the event will be across far southern MD. Snow will be moving out of the Washington and Baltimore areas during the evening commute, but temps may drop below freezing Tuesday night and with west/slushy roads in place there may be some icy conditions.

I bolded mine... one of those each week would be fine with me

What? Fairfax/PW/Baltimore/Montgomery are i95 corridor and in WWA

Updated AFD from LWX should be out shortly... should be a good read

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 VAZ050-071045- /O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1300Z-200107T2100Z/ Orange- 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Orange County. * WHEN...From 8 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected between 1 PM and 4 PM Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are possible, especially around midday Tuesday into the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates could exceed one inch per hour with visibility around one-half mile at times.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 VAZ051-052-502-071045- /O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1600Z-200107T2300Z/ Culpeper-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Southern Fauquier- 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Culpeper, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park and Southern Fauquier Counties. * WHEN...From 11 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected between 2 PM and 5 PM Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected, especially northwest of interstate 95 Tuesday afternoon into the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates around one inch per hour are possible with visibility around one-half mile at times.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 VAZ025-026-036>038-503-504-507-508-WVZ505-506-071045- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1300Z-200107T2100Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with locally 3 to 5 inches across the higher elevations. * WHERE...The central Shenandoah Valley, Blue Ridge Mountains, Potomac Highlands of Virginia, and portions of central Virginia. * WHEN...From 8 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected between 11 AM and 2 PM late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected, especially around midday Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates could exceed one inch per hour with visibility around one-quarter mile at times.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 VAZ027>031-039-040-501-505-WVZ050-052-053-055-071045- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1600Z-200107T2300Z/ Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Madison-Rappahannock- Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Hampshire-Berkeley-Jefferson- Hardy- 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northern Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 11 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected between 1 PM and 4 PM Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected, especially Tuesday afternoon into the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates around one inch per hour are possible with visibility around one-half mile at times.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 MDZ003>006-011-503>508-VAZ053-506-WVZ051-071045- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1700Z-200108T0000Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Fairfax-Eastern Loudoun-Morgan- 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...northeastern and central Maryland as well as the Baltimore Metropolitan area. * WHEN...From noon to 7 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected between 3 PM and 6 PM Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening. * IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected, especially northwest of Interstate 95 into the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates could exceed one inch per hour with visibility around one-half mile at times.

WWA expanded eastward to I95 corridor... but doesn't include Charles/PG/AA/Spotsy/Stafford/DC metro

This is at 18z btw... so DC metro snow is just getting going at the time with that image

AFD this morning was even mentioning a threat for severe weather lol

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 557 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 VAZ027>031-039-040-501-505-WVZ050-052-053-055-070700- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1600Z-200107T2300Z/ Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Madison-Rappahannock- Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Hampshire-Berkeley-Jefferson- Hardy- 557 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northern Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 11 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected between 1 PM and 4 PM Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected, especially Tuesday afternoon into the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates around one inch per hour are possible with visibility around one-half mile at times.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 557 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 VAZ025-026-036>038-503-504-507-508-WVZ505-506-070700- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1300Z-200107T2100Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 557 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with locally 3 to 5 inches across the higher elevations. * WHERE...the central Shenandoah Valley, Blue Ridge Mountains, Potomac Highlands of Virginia, and portions of central Virginia. * WHEN...From 8 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected between 11 AM and 2 PM late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected, especially around midday Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates could exceed one inch per hour with visibility around one-quarter mile at times.

Hopefully the Canadians (RGEM) give us love too like the NAM twins just did

Until HRDRPS has like 9" lol

Def agree... they could probably wait till after the 00z early runs before issuing anything for the DC/BALT metro regions