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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 925 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2020 ...EF-1 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN CARROLL COUNTY MD ON FRIDAY MORNING FEB 7 2020... LOCATION...CARROLL COUNTY MD DATE...FRI FEB 7 2020 ESTIMATED TIME...8:03 AM EST TO 8:14 AM EST MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...100 YARDS PATH LENGTH...10.3 MILES INTERMITTENT BEGINNING LAT/LON...39.5620/-77.0310 ENDING LAT/LON...39.6610/-76.8860 * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 ...SUMMARY... EARLY ON FRIDAY FEB 7TH, A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AND SKIPPED NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTY MD CAUSING ERRATIC DAMAGE. WHILE THERE WAS SCATTERED TREE DAMAGE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY, THE FIRST NOTED DAMAGE CONSISTENT WITH A TORNADO WAS IN THE AVONDALE RIDGE COMMUNITY JUST WEST OF ROUTE 31 AND SOUTHWEST OF WESTMINSTER. CLUSTERS OF SNAPPED AND UPROOTED TREES WERE NOTED. FROM THERE THE TORNADO CAUSED INTERMITTENT DAMAGE AS IT TRAVELED NORTHEAST THROUGH DOWNTOWN WESTMINSTER, ROUGHLY PARALLELING RIDGE ROAD AND UNION STREET. TREES WERE UPROOTED AND SNAPPED, SOME ONTO CARS, ROADS, AND HOMES. ADDITIONALLY, ROOFING WAS BLOWN OFF, AND SHINGLE AND SIDING DAMAGE WAS NOTED FROM THE WIND. THE TORNADO CONTINUED UP HAHN RD AND INTO THE COMMUNITY ALONG SUNSHINE WAY, WHERE MORE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED TREES WERE NOTED, AS WELL AS RESIDENTIAL FENCING DAMAGE. A LARGE RECREATIONAL VEHICLE WAS BLOWN OVER. ON ADJACENT PROPERTY, THE NATIONAL GUARD RECRUITING OFFICE HAD TREE DAMAGE. ADDITIONALLY, A SMALL MILITARY TRAILER WAS BLOWN OVER. THE LAST KNOWN DAMAGE FROM THIS SEGMENT OF THE TORNADO WAS ALONG LUCABAUGH MILL RD, ABOUT 250 YARDS WEST OF ROUTE 27/MANCHESTER RD. MOST OF THE TREES ALONG THIS AREA WERE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DOWNED. IN ADDITION TO GROUND SURVEYING, THERE WAS AN EYEWITNESS REPORT, AS WELL AS A VIDEO OF A SMALL TORNADO POSTED TO SOCIAL MEDIA, BOTH IN THE WESTMINSTER AREA. PEAK ESTIMATED WINDS WERE 90 MPH BASED ON THE MOST HEAVILY DAMAGED AREAS. THE TORNADO LIFTED NORTHEAST OF WESTMINSTER, AND NO DAMAGE WAS NOTED FOR ABOUT 4 MILES UNTIL IT NEARED MANCHESTER MD. SUBSTANTIAL TREE DAMAGE, WITH NUMEROUS LARGE TREES UPROOTED AND SNAPPED WERE NOTED ALONG FORT SCHOOLHOUSE RD, FROM ALBERT RILL ROAD, TO THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 400 YARDS. A HOME HAD A SECTION CRUSHED BY A LARGE FALLING TREE. AS THE TORNADO TRAVELED NORTHEAST ALONG PARK AVENUE, TREE DAMAGE BECAME MORE SCATTERED, AND NO TORNADIC DAMAGE WAS NOTED NORTHEAST OF MD ROUTE 30 IN MANCHESTER. THANKS TO CARROLL COUNTY MD OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR THEIR SUPPORT OF OUR STORM SURVEY. EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES: EF0.........65 TO 85 MPH EF1.........86 TO 110 MPH EF2.........111 TO 135 MPH EF3.........136 TO 165 MPH EF4.........166 TO 200 MPH EF5.........>200 MPH * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. $$ STRONG/LEE

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 657 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2020 ...EF-0 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN LEESBURG VIRGINIA FRIDAY MORNING FEB 7 2020... LOCATION...TOWN OF LEESBURG IN LOUDOUN COUNTY VIRGINIA DATE...FRI FEB 7 2020 ESTIMATED TIME...7:20 AM EST TO 7:23 AM EST MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...85 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...250 YARDS PATH LENGTH...3.3 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...39.0946/-77.5874 ENDING LAT/LON...39.1291/-77.5431 * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 ...SUMMARY... STAFF FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE LOCATED IN STERLING, VA PERFORMED A SURVEY OF STORM DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED IN THE TOWN OF LEESBURG, VA ON THE MORNING OF FEBRUARY 7, 2020. THIS SURVEY, COUPLED WITH RADAR ANALYSIS FROM THE KLWX WSR-88D AND THE FAA'S TIAD TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR, CONCLUDED THAT A TORNADO RATED EF0 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE IMPACTED THE TOWN OF LEESBURG BETWEEN 7:20 AM EST AND 7:23 AM EST. THE TORNADO HAD A PATH LENGTH OF 3.3 MILES PRODUCING INTERMITTENT DAMAGE, WITH A PATH WIDTH OF UP TO 250 YARDS. THE TORNADO WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT APPROXIMATELY 60 MPH. THE FIRST DAMAGE WAS REPORTED IN THE GREENWAY FARM AND LINDEN HILL SUBDIVISION IN SW LEESBURG. HERE NUMEROUS LARGE TREE LIMBS WERE DOWNED ALONG WITH SEVERAL TREES COMPLETELY UPROOTED. THE DAMAGE WAS DETERMINED TO BE CONCENTRATED BETWEEN LAWFORD DRIVE AND NICKELS DRIVE IN A WOODED AREA, AND ALSO ALONG GOVERNORS DRIVE AND COUNTRY CLUB DRIVE. TIAD RADAR WAS SHOWING A ROTATIONAL SIGNATURE BEGINNING AT 7:20 AM IN THESE LOCATIONS. WIND GUSTS IN THIS AREA WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 MPH FROM RADAR ANALYSIS AND DAMAGE INDICATORS. THE TORNADO THEN LIFTED OVER ROUTE 7, WITH JUST SOME MINOR TREE DAMAGE NOTED IN THE 800 BLOCK OF DAVIS COURT SE. THE HISTORIC DOWNTOWN PORTION OF THE TOWN OF LEESBURG, NEAR KING AND MARKET STREETS, WAS SPARED WITH JUST MINIMAL DAMAGE. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY DAMAGE THAT WAS OBSERVED WAS TREE DAMAGE ALONG MONROE STREET. AS THE TORNADO MOVED INTO NE LEESBURG, BOTH THE RADAR AND THE STORM SURVEY INDICATED THAT IT BECAME MUCH STRONGER. TWO AREAS OF WIDESPREAD, CONCENTRATED TREE DAMAGE WERE FOUND. THE FIRST ONE WAS IN THE VICINITY OF LOUNSBERRY ROAD NE AND THE EXETER SUBDIVISION; WHICH ARE NORTH OF EDWARDS FERRY ROAD AND SOUTH OF BATTLEFIELD PARKWAY NE. A TOWNHOME ON GINGER SQUARE NE HAD ITS SIDING AND UNDERLAYMENT COMPLETELY PEELED OFF, EXPOSING IT'S ROOF TRUSSES. MANY HOMES ALONG MARSHALL DRIVE NE ALSO HAD ROOFING DAMAGE, ALONG WITH TREES UPROOTED AND LARGE BRANCHES DOWNED. ONE HOUSE HAD LAWN FURNITURE LIFTED AND BLOWN IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE WAY THE TREES WERE FALLEN AND DEBRIS WAS PLASTERED ON CARS AND HOMES. DAMAGE WAS NOTED SPANNING THE 500 AND 600 BLOCKS OF MARSHALL DRIVE NE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE DAMAGE WIDTH ESTIMATE OF 250 YARDS. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCENTRATED WIND DAMAGE WAS NORTH OF BATTLEFIELD PARKWAY NE, IN AND AROUND THE FIELDSTONE APARTMENT COMPLEX. HERE, FIFTEEN TO TWENTY 1.5-2.0 FOOT DIAMETER PINES WERE UPROOTED. OF SPECIAL NOTE WAS A LINE OF 5 LARGE PINE TREES IN THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF THE APARTMENT COMPLEX WHICH WERE UPROOTED AND WHICH FELL ONTO TWO UNOCCUPIED VEHICLES. SEVERAL OF THESE TREES DID FALL IN A CONVERGENT PATTERN. ADDITIONAL LARGE PINE TREES WERE UPROOTED ALONG THE US ROUTE 15 LEESBURG BYPASS NEAR ITS INTERSECTION WITH BATTLEFIELD PARKWAY NE. ANALYSIS FROM TIAD RADAR SHOWED VELOCITY MEASUREMENTS UP TO 77 KNOTS AT APPROXIMATELY 210 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL AS THE TORNADO WAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIELDSTONE APARTMENTS. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN THE WIND'S MAGNITUDE AS IT GOT CLOSER TO GROUND LEVEL, ALONG WITH THE DAMAGE INDICATED IN AND AROUND THE FIELDSTONE APARTMENTS, CORROBORATES ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 85 MPH. THE NWS BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE THANKS THE LOUDOUN COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WITH PROVIDING INFORMATION SUPPORTING THE STORM SURVEY. EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES: EF0.........65 TO 85 MPH EF1.........86 TO 110 MPH EF2.........111 TO 135 MPH EF3.........136 TO 165 MPH EF4.........166 TO 200 MPH EF5.........>200 MPH * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. $$ LEE

Looks like 2 EF0 and 3 EF1 tornadoes confirmed by LWX today... wow.

12z Euro at 144 has 997mb SLP in NW MS But that HP is too far west in Canada IMO

Lots of reports from LWX too... looks like at least 30

Good amount of TW and STW for no watch this morning lol

this is h5 at 144 for tonights 00z UKIE... farthest out it goes on PW

00z UKIE for comparison purposes

850s go bye bye at just after 216 on 00z CMC.... so its a short term wintry precip time period... but its Day 9 so... yeah... 3-5 inches ain't bad

Cmc has way better cad though Thats cause at 204... the HP in Quebec is 1050mb

00z CMC carries along the ill-fated GL low during our VD chance and its a swing and miss... but then keys in on the same time the 00z GFS did a few days later

00z GFS another southern slider... gets crushed

ICON had a closed h5 though... GFS doesn't this run FWIW

00z GFS looks decent at 150... like to see a bit stronger HP than 1036mb...

Damn that looks really nice... and it'll be gone in the morning

18z GFS is a miss for VDay... but intriguing enough to keep watch

Yes, but +1/+2 is MUCH better than +6... and it seems that at least its trending towards negative instead of trending upwards

I'll take #31 please... but you know it will likely end up being #6

If only we could get that image at the 240 hour mark instead of at 384...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1122 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Cabarrus County in the Piedmont of North Carolina... Central Mecklenburg County in the Piedmont of North Carolina... Southeastern Gaston County in the Piedmont of North Carolina... * Until noon EST. * At 1121 AM EST, a confirmed dangerous tornado was located 7 miles east of Gastonia, or over Belmont, moving east at 45 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * The tornado will be near... Uptown Charlotte, Central Charlotte, Hidden Valley, The Plaza and Northwest Charlotte around 1140 AM EST. Harrisburg, University City, Reedy Creek Park, Charlotte Motor Speedway and East Charlotte around 1150 AM EST. Downtown Concord, West Concord, Mt Pleasant and Midland around 1200 PM EST.

This x1000. I will keep her in my thoughts and prayers as well

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1112 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Forsyth County in central North Carolina... Northern Davidson County in central North Carolina... * Until 1145 AM EST. * At 1112 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 8 miles southeast of Clemmons, or 9 miles north of Lexington, moving east at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of Forsyth and northern Davidson Counties, including the following locations... Rural Hall, Arcadia, Pfafftown, Stanleyville and Belews Lake. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This Tornado Warning replaces the Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for the same area. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

0z GFS is next for Sat night

lala NAM land... but 00z NAM looks to be digging a bit more than 18z NAM with our weekend system on h5 when comparing 00z NAM 78 to 18z NAM 84