yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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New Day 2 is out... ENH reaches up to around EZF... 10% hatched TOR includes CHO/RIC and is also just south of EZF
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18z EURO was pretty nice per @losetoa6 re SBCAPE
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45 now into DC... 60 getting closer to EZF on 21z SREFs
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Even cutting in half... still ridiculous
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As in like > 1000 J/KG? How much we talking lol
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Not going to post them as there are many -- but the soundings across the region from the 18z NAM at 18z MON are just ridiculously silly. Something we see maybe once in a long while
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So... who's staying up tonight for the 00z NAM run and the new Day 2 outlook?
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Well the afternoon AFD from LWX seems to be leaning that way IMO with its severe talk
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Wouldn't be surprised to see ENH for us on Day 2 tonight and MOD down in the Carolinas... maybe into S VA
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New day 3 map
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LWX states severe threat is increasing in their afternoon AFD
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Regular 12z NAM soundings at 18z MON were not pretty looking at the soundings across the region... suxh as BWI/IAD/DCA/EZF... SBCAPE likely overdone, but even half of what it shows would be dangerous around here
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CWG posted an article about the threat https://mobile.twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1249032861379936257
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I think 60% wind is needed for high risk
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New day 3 OTLK disco adds even more intrigue for our region lol
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Intriguing disco as well for our region from the morning Day 2 OTLK:
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Day 3 OTLK should be intriguing to see in about an hour... but here is the new day 2:
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MDT remains on new Day 2... but HIGH upgrade is discussed
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From the 21z SREFs on the SPC website:
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Even at 21z MON across the region, 00z NAM is still printing out SBCAPE values around 2000 with pretty good deep layer shear
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That is not a very friendly sounding at KCHO at 15z MON from tonights 00z NAM
