yoda

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 The depression has become better organized this morning with the center embedded in the western side of a growing area of deep convection. An earlier buoy report recorded adjusted maximum winds of 32 kt, and roughly half of the estimates show that the depression is a tropical storm. Conservatively, the winds will be held at 30 kt until we will see what the scatterometer shows this afternoon. Increasing shear is expected to limit any significant strengthening, although it does seem more likely than not that this system will barely make it to a tropical storm later today. The shear is forecast to get quite strong by tomorrow afternoon, so weakening is anticipated by then, and persistence of that shear is expected to cause the cyclone to decay into a remnant low in about 48 hours. While the initial part of the forecast is a little higher than the last one, this change is really in the noise level for intensity prediction and is only noticeable because of the tropical storm threshold. The initial motion has turned toward the east-northeast or 060/12 kt. There is reasonable agreement among the guidance that this motion will continue through tomorrow, and then become eastward during the next 2-3 days around the northern side of the subtropical ridge, followed by a northeastward turn by day 4. Similar to the last forecast, most of the uncertainty is with the speed, rather than the direction of the cyclone. The new forecast is closer to the faster guidance and the previous NHC track prediction. Dissipation is shown at 120h, although a few models have it occuring as early as days 2-3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 34.7N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 35.6N 71.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 36.5N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 37.2N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 37.3N 62.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/0000Z 37.0N 59.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1200Z 37.0N 57.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z 39.5N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

TD 15 remains at 5am... not going to make it to TS Nana per disco, should be gone in a few days as shear destroys it

No recon till later today... and no LLC (or no closed surface wind circ as said above in the 2am TWO) no upgrade at 5am

MRGL risk tomorrow for wind... SLGT risk for Thursday

NHC still says no at 2 am on their TWO about it due to no closed surface wind circ... which I guess means no closed LLC Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen, located a little over a hundred miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. 1. A seemingly well-organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is moving quickly westward across the central Caribbean Sea, but satellite-derived wind data from a few hours ago again showed that the system has not developed a closed surface wind circulation. The wave is, however, producing an area of winds near tropical storm force south of the coast of Haiti, which will move near or south of Jamaica later this morning. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before the system reaches Central America Wednesday night. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible on Jamaica today, and interests there, as well as in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula, should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a day or so. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Guess I will try my hand at this again lol DCA +1.8 NYC +1.4 BOS +1.5 ORD +0.5 ATL +1.7 IAH +1.1 DEN +2.0 PHX +3.5 SEA +2.4

Remember to end your post with bingo bango

Its not on the Euro... so I'm tossing it

Too many people are making jokes about the ops (main models) past few days showing nothing... that's why. Just wanted to be sure. It's on tropical tidbits. Click ensemble... then gfs-para. Then you can choose the hours you want to look at from there on the scroll button

No TD at 11pm... guess we will wait till tomorrow

I think he meant the website weathermodels... not the actual ones... at least I thought that @TradeWinds is that what you meant? Or were you trolling about the actual weather models themselves?

Shows how much it was forgotten by me since it was sheared to pieces in the GOM before Laura Guess it will be Nana then

Well here comes Marco that will move out to sea... 3. An area of low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern coast of the United States in a day or two. Subsequent development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast of the U.S. and then away from land. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 251 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020 DEC001-003-MDC015-029-281930- /O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0270.000000T0000Z-200828T1930Z/ New Castle DE-Kent DE-Kent MD-Cecil MD- 251 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEW CASTLE...NORTHWESTERN KENT...NORTHEASTERN KENT AND SOUTHEASTERN CECIL COUNTIES... At 250 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Warwick, or near Middletown, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Wind damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible. Locations impacted include... Middletown, Smyrna, Clayton, Cheswold, Warwick, Sassafras, Delaney Corner, Green Spring, Townsend, Odessa and Chambersville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Protecting yourself from immediate threats to life and safety shall take priority. Whenever possible, as long as it does not cause greater harm, all COVID-19 protective action guidance should be followed. Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside should seek shelter inside a well-built structure and away from windows. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3944 7582 3947 7572 3945 7555 3937 7548 3920 7557 3936 7586 TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 290DEG 21KT 3941 7575 HAIL...2.00IN WIND...60MPH $$ Staarmann

You should use the uber banhammer

STW till 8pm for northern 2/3rds of LWX CWA

1630 disco

1630 SPC OTLK SLGT risk for most of LWX CWA into C VA

This is interesting... wave going to break in 2 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression Laura, centered inland over Arkansas. Future advisories will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center. A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the eastern Caribbean islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The northern part of this wave, which should move rapidly westward over the central Atlantic during the next few days, is not forecast to develop as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions. However, the southern part of the wave is expected be nearly stationary south of the Cabo Verde Islands for the next several days, and some development of this system is possible early next week when it begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1112 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1101 PM TSTM WND GST 1 E HAYES 44.37N 101.00W 08/27/2020 M104 MPH STANLEY SD PUBLIC PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

97mph wind gust reported in the MCS in SD tonight PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1119 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1100 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ENE BUNKER 44.25N 101.06W 08/27/2020 M97 MPH STANLEY SD PUBLIC PERSONAL WEATHER STATION. RADAR ESTIMATED TIME AND APPROXIMATE LOCATION.

ENH risk on new Day 2 for E IA/N IL/S WI

@weatherwiz is going to go full weenie when he sees the new Day 2 from SPC... ENH risk with 30% hatched wind... 5% tor... and 15% hatched hail in SE NY/NE PA/NW NJ

00z NAM looks intriguing sounding-wise for late Friday afternoon into the overnight

Afternoon AFD from LWX sounds good