yoda

Its coming... just got issued... severe thunderstorm watch that is

0100 SPC OTLK mentions MCS complex rolling through overnight with large hail and damaging winds as a threat

LWX states spotter activation maybe needed overnight in their updated HWO Also zones have severe wording in them for overnight and tomorrow morning

Big hail core in the supercell in N WV right now

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0295.html

Mesoscale Discussion 0295 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020 Areas affected...eastern WI...northern IL/IN and western MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 072006Z - 072200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated elevated thunderstorms may produce large hail across eastern WI near Green Bay over the next hour. Additional storms are expected to develop further south over the next couple of hours, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts, large hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading eastward across southern Lower Michigan/northern Indiana this evening. DISCUSSION...Isolated elevated thunderstorms have developed north of the warm front. Very steep midlevel lapse rates and strong shear will support large hail potential in this elevated convection. Further south, strong warm advection is resulting in modest increases in boundary layer moisture south of the warm front, with dewpoints mainly in the mid-50s to near 60 F south of the boundary. Very steep lapse rates atop a weakening capping inversion and strong vertical shear will favor semi-discrete cells capable of large hail initially. Strong heating into the low and mid 70s is aiding in rapid erosion of this cap. As a result, expect isolated to widely-scattered surface-based thunderstorm development over the next couple of hours across southeast WI. In addition to damaging wind and large hail, a couple of tornadoes are possible, especially in the vicinity of the warm front where low level shear is enhanced. With time and as frontal forcing increases this evening in conjunction with a low level jet, convection will likely grow upscale into one or more bowing segments as storms shift east over Lake Michigan and into southern Lower Michigan toward 00z. This will increase potential for damaging winds across parts of southern Lower Michigan into northern Indiana this evening. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/07/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...

2000 SPC OTLK states that threat for severe hail and wind should increase as diurnal heating continues and references the MCD Eskimo Joe posted above

Looks like the sun is trying hard to come back out here

LWX afternoon AFD seems to think 2 more rounds to go... one this evening and one overnight

Hmmm... new Day 1 is 15 hail and 15 wind... all of LWX CWA is in SLGT... hatched hail is off in the Ohio Valley... but disco seems to imply it could get moved eastward some later today... also seems to imply a 1-2 punch for us - afternoon risk and then nocturnal threat

I'm watching Season 2 of Star Trek Discovery... i like it so far

Alright... who broke the sensor?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/5100853002 https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us70008jr5/executive

Big earthquake earlier this evening in ID... 2nd biggest on record I believe in that state... 6.5 magnitude

Which will likely be quite a while unfortunately... I miss thunderstorms

Trying again north of Richmond

Looks like CI trying hard NE of Farmville... but got smushed lol

Figured we should bump this thread since we are discussing drought conditions again already in the main thread lol

I don't see that?

That's okay... I'll skip it lol... I mean, you had to get lucky sometime. Beating you in the 2nd round over and over did get a little bit boring after a while

The 2008 one? That was the first one and a good game. Won't spoil the ending

Um okay... that escalated quickly in the evening AFD

00z NAM still has some decent looking soundings at 21z tomorrow around the region