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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Interesting note at the end of the discussion... I have bolded it Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019 500 PM HST Tue Jul 02 2019 GOES-17 visible and infrared satellite images, along with passive microwave satellite data, indicate that Barbara has continued to rapidly intensify. A 15-nmi diameter clear eye with temperatures warmer than 21 deg C has developed in the center of a circular CDO feature consisting of cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. Satellite intensity estimates have been vacillating between T6.8/135 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT to T7.0/140 kt from TAFB, NHC objective-AODT, and CIMSS SATCON. Since the T7.0/140-kt estimates have only been intermittent, the intensity has been raised to a solid 135 kt, or just below the category-5 threshold. The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt. There is no change to previous forecast discussions. Barbara is forecast to remain south of a pronounced deep-layer ridge throughout the forecast period, resulting in west-northwestward to northwestward motion through 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the west by 72 hours when Barbara is expected to be a rapidly weakening and vertically shallow cyclone. The latest NHC track guidance is tightly packed around the previous forecast track, so the new official forecast track is essentially just an update and an extension of the previous advisory track, and closely follows a blend of the consensus models HCCA, TVCE, and TVDG. Barbara has probably peaked in intensity, although another 5-kt increase in strength tonight during the convective maximum period is a distinct possibility, which would bring the powerful hurricane to category 5 status. However, all of the available intensity guidance is unanimous in indicating a weakening trend will begin in 12 hours or so due to the development of cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, coupled with a likely eyewall replacement cycle. The 26-deg-C SST isotherm lies east-west along 17N latitude, and Barbara is forecast to move over much cooler waters by 48 hours, at which time more prodigious cold upwelling beneath the cyclone is expected to develop, causing a rapid weakening trend to ensue. Increasing southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear in excess of 20 kt is forecast to develop by 96 hours, resulting in Barbara degenerating into a post-tropical low by the time the cyclone moves west of 140W longitude and into the central Pacific basin. The new NHC official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is a little lower than the intensity consensus models HCCA and IVCN. NOTE: Beginning this hurricane season, all National Hurricane Center eastern Pacific advisory products that utilize local time, and the corresponding graphical products, will use Hawaiian Standard Time (HST) instead of Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) or Standard Time (PST) if the final forecast point is west of 140W. Since Barbara's day 5 official forecast point is now west of 140W, advisory products are now being issued in Hawaiian Standard Time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 13.1N 124.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 13.7N 126.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 14.7N 127.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 15.9N 129.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 17.1N 131.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 18.9N 135.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 19.2N 140.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 08/0000Z 19.0N 147.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
  2. yoda
    BULLETIN Hurricane Barbara Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019 500 PM HST Tue Jul 02 2019 ...BARBARA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO NEAR CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH... ...WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 124.6W ABOUT 1175 MI...1895 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of the eye of powerful Hurricane Barbara was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 124.6 West. Barbara is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Thursday. By Friday, Barbara is expected to turn back toward the west with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Barbara is a strong category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strengthen is expected tonight. A steady to rapid weakening trend is forecast to begin by Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches).
  3. yoda
    Seems CWG used it today for the DCA high temp https://mobile.twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1145069932251680769 Ian says the high was 96
  4. yoda
    STW just SE of me for winds to up 70mph
  5. yoda
    BWI hit 97 I thought?
  6. yoda
    Hmmm BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1105 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Madison County in northwestern Virginia... Southeastern Rockingham County in western Virginia... South central Page County in northwestern Virginia... Central Greene County in central Virginia... * Until 1145 PM EDT. * At 1105 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles southeast of Massanutten, or 16 miles southeast of Harrisonburg, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Elkton, Mcmullen, Mission Home, Swift Run, Lydia, Fletcher, Graves Mill, Jollett, Aylor, Haneytown, Saint George and Shady Grove. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3829 7870 3855 7852 3843 7827 3825 7857 TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 218DEG 23KT 3829 7862 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...1.00IN WIND...60MPH
  7. yoda
    It was out in Grant and Hardy... but was canceled after rotation weakened
  8. yoda
    Hmmm... maybe? Mesoscale Discussion 1238 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Areas affected...Virginia...Maryland...Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242317Z - 250145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and hail will be possible across parts of Pennsylvania southward to Virginia this evening. Weather watch issuance can not be ruled out. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a surface trough located from West Virginia southeastward into western Virginia with dewpoints ahead of the trough in lower 70s F. In response, a moderately unstable airmass is located from southern Pennsylvania into central and eastern Virginia where MLCAPE values range from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms have developed in the central Appalachians along the western edge of the stronger instability. In addition to the instability, regional WSR-88D VWPS show moderate deep-layer shear with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 kt range. Although convective development will remain isolated, the environment should support a severe threat for a few more hours this evening. Wind damage and hail would be the primary threats. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 06/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
  9. yoda
    Tornado warning out in WV
  10. yoda
    Some pretty nice soundings showing up on the 00z NAM tonight from 21z MON to 06z TUES Pretty much last chance saloon for storms for next 7 to 10 days
  11. yoda
    Pouring rain here again
  12. yoda
    It's quite sunny now
  13. yoda
    Probably don't count for very much at all, but both the 00z RGEM and 00z HRDPS rock DC metro at around 00z-01z FRI 00z 3km NAM looks like it has a tiny intense storm in DC at 00z too
  14. yoda
    Looks like a mature bow echo will be coming through overnight URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 406 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and central Alabama Northeastern Arkansas Central and northern Mississippi Southern middle and southwestern Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1020 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A well-organized cluster and separate bow echo initially over eastern Arkansas, each with a well-developed wind signature and history of severe gusts, will proceed into and across the watch area. These systems could merge as well. Severe thunderstorm wind will remain the main threat, though an embedded tornado or two also is possible.
  15. yoda
    LWX does mention ML Lapse Rates around 7.0 C/KM and fat cape... with sig amount in the hail growth zone on the soundings in their AFD:
  16. yoda
    Good call... now SVR warned
  17. yoda
    Big time VIL just north of Mineral... near 80 kg/m2 with def hail core
  18. yoda
    STW Spotsylvania county
  19. yoda
    Louisa county cell looking intriguing
  20. yoda
  21. yoda
    If you read the AFD... you would see they said 4pm to 7pm for development
  22. yoda
    Yeah... we easily reached ConvT lol
  23. yoda
    LWX expanded the FFW Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 152 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 MDZ017-018-VAZ036>040-050-051-056-057-507-508-190200- /O.EXA.KLWX.FF.A.0005.190618T1800Z-190619T0300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ St. Marys-Calvert-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock- Orange-Culpeper-Spotsylvania-King George- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Big Meadows, and Wintergreen 152 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has expanded the * Flash Flood Watch to include portions of southern Maryland and Virginia, including the following areas, in southern Maryland, Calvert and St. Marys. In Virginia, Albemarle, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Culpeper, Greene, King George, Madison, Nelson, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Orange, Rappahannock, and Spotsylvania. * Until 11 PM EDT this evening. * Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected to develop across the watch area this afternoon and linger into the evening. Localized rainfall totals of several inches are possible. This could lead to flash flooding, especially in the urban areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
  24. yoda
    60% today... yesterday was 40%... so I would believe so Would also probably mean that the SLGT risk at 1630 will be drawn more SWward -- when it decides to come out... its 10 mins late
  25. yoda
    LWX in their updated zones as of 10:37 AM has DCA reaching upper 80s for highs which would likely breach ConvT
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