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yoda

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  1. yoda
    @mattie g incoming severe tstorm
  2. yoda
    And an okay MCD... no watch likely here but maybe just to our north or NW in PA/W MD https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1744.html
  3. yoda
    You have mentioned the Storm That Must Not Be Named
  4. yoda
    I'm going to use a D20 for a saving roll for severe weather this afternoon
  5. yoda
    I see the sun lol
  6. yoda
    Well then... looks like someone at CWG thinks tomorrow could be interesting severe weatherwise
  7. yoda
    Um, Presidents Day Blizzard? 18.7" at DCA? Caught the region off guard?
  8. yoda
    @high risk How does the apparent lack of convection so far in the ENH day 1 affect us? Also, seems that there is a lessening of the risk for a convective complex developing reading the latest AFD from Chicago NWS
  9. yoda
    I do like the talk of the cold pool though tbh
  10. yoda
    @Kmlwx SPC seems like they are going to go mod at 2000 OTLK across SE IA/IL/W IN for either wind and/or tor probs... 1630 has 10% hatched tor and 30% hatched wind... wonder if any of that will make it over to us tomorrow... 1730 SPC disco should be interesting
  11. yoda
    Yes.. see above
  12. yoda
    Yup. 45% hatched wind is mod on wind chart while 15% hatched is mod on tor chart
  13. yoda
    Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST IA TO WEST-CENTRAL IN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, a couple possibly strong, and significant damaging winds will be likely across southeast Iowa through central Illinois, mainly this evening. ...IA/IL/IN... An upgrade to Moderate Risk for tornado and/or wind may become necessary in later outlooks today. A leading MCV is tracking east into eastern IA with a lingering surface cyclone centered over west-central IA. This latter feature should move east into northern IL through this evening. Diffuse convective outflow from remnant leading MCS over southern IL has been shunted across southeast to northwest MO. Nevertheless, air mass recovery is underway north of the boundary into extreme southern IA and west-central IL. Further erosion of the prior cold pool amid cloud breaks should yield at least weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy by late afternoon in IA to northern IL. More robust destabilization is expected farther south where greater unimpeded insolation occurs while a plume of 77-81 F surface dew points is advected north from the Mid-South. Despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures, the very rich boundary-layer moisture and surface heating should yield a plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE likely reaching 3000-4000 J/kg across much of MO into central/southern IL. Renewed thunderstorm development is probable towards late afternoon near the surface cyclone in southeast IA and during the early evening to the southeast in central IL within a corridor of strengthening low-level warm advection. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing all hazards, given the enhanced low-level shear/hodograph curvature near the cyclone/warm front. Hodographs aloft should tend to favor relatively quick upscale growth, but even semi-discrete supercells will pose a risk for at least a few tornadoes, a couple of which be may strong. A forward-propagating MCS should eventually evolve along the MLCAPE gradient from central IL into central IN where severe wind gusts will remain a threat before weakening overnight.
  14. yoda
  15. yoda
    1630z SPC OTLK ramped up TOR probs significantly in W IL and extreme SE IA... 5% at 1300 to 10% hatched on 1630z... hatched wind added to 30% on 1630z OTLK as well
  16. yoda
    Yeah... sad. Kamala always seemed to be like 5 minutes faster than SPC putting stuff up
  17. yoda
    Which is Wednesday, August 14th
  18. yoda
    And we have seen it work before in our area
  19. yoda
    Fun read
  20. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0574.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 940 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Central Kansas South-Central Nebraska * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 940 PM until 500 AM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds expected with scattered significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A couple tornadoes possible SUMMARY...A developing bow echo over northwest Kansas will move rapidly eastward overnight, posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts across the watch area. Large hail and a tornado or two are also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of Hill City KS to 15 miles south southeast of Beatrice NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
  21. yoda
    I like the UFS
  22. yoda
    Shows you how fickle forecasting tropical systems can be Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southeast of the Lesser Antilles continues to generate limited showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form well east of the Leeward Islands by early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development as the system approaches the Leeward Islands Tuesday and Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos
  23. yoda
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 547 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 115 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2019 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC013-047-059-061-099-137-153-177-179-600-610-683-685-010100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0547.190731T1715Z-190801T0100Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARLINGTON CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER KING GEORGE ORANGE PRINCE WILLIAM SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 547 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 115 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2019 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC003-005-009-011-015-017-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-041-510- 010100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0547.190731T1715Z-190801T0100Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CECIL CHARLES HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE`S ST. MARYS TALBOT MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY
  24. yoda
    STWatch in effect for I95 corridor and DCA/BWI metros until 9pm
  25. yoda
    Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower activity associated with a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea has decreased since yesterday. Atmospheric conditions as well as land effects should inhibit the development of this system as it moves west-northwestward for the next several days. This disturbance, however, could still produce an increase in cloudiness and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico, the Greater Antilles and portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. 1. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Avila
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