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Everything posted by yoda
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Hope you are able to get a good nights sleeps
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I hope you feel better quickly!
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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
yoda replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Shows you how fickle forecasting tropical systems can be Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southeast of the Lesser Antilles continues to generate limited showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form well east of the Leeward Islands by early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development as the system approaches the Leeward Islands Tuesday and Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos -
Baltimore and surrounding suburbs getting crushed... wouldnt be surprised to see a FFW up there shortly
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 547 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 115 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2019 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC013-047-059-061-099-137-153-177-179-600-610-683-685-010100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0547.190731T1715Z-190801T0100Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARLINGTON CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER KING GEORGE ORANGE PRINCE WILLIAM SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 547 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 115 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2019 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC003-005-009-011-015-017-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-041-510- 010100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0547.190731T1715Z-190801T0100Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CECIL CHARLES HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE`S ST. MARYS TALBOT MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY
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STWatch in effect for I95 corridor and DCA/BWI metros until 9pm
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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
yoda replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower activity associated with a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea has decreased since yesterday. Atmospheric conditions as well as land effects should inhibit the development of this system as it moves west-northwestward for the next several days. This disturbance, however, could still produce an increase in cloudiness and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico, the Greater Antilles and portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. 1. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Avila -
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 514 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... New Castle County in northern Delaware... Northeastern Kent County in northeastern Maryland... Cecil County in northeastern Maryland... Camden County in southern New Jersey... West central Atlantic County in southern New Jersey... Northern Cumberland County in southern New Jersey... Salem County in southern New Jersey... Gloucester County in southern New Jersey... Northwestern Burlington County in southern New Jersey... Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Southeastern Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Southeastern Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Philadelphia County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania... * Until 615 PM EDT. * At 512 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Gradyville to Carneys Point to near Green Spring, moving east at 45 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...At 504 PM EDT, a wind gust of 78 mph was reported at the New Castle County Airport near Wilmington, Delaware. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. * Locations impacted include... Philadelphia, Camden, Wilmington, Vineland, Newark, Millville, Bridgeton, Middletown, West Chester, Elkton, Gloucester City, Bensalem, Evesham, Mount Laurel, Norristown, Chester, Willingboro, Deptford, Voorhees and Medford.
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Ton of reports tonight https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=LSR
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Then brings another decent line through around 02z/03z TUES
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Fauquier and Warren and Rappahannock counties under STW near Front Royal... storm barely moving
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Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 244 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 NYC029-063-191915- /O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-190719T1915Z/ Erie NY-Niagara NY- 244 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN ERIE AND SOUTHWESTERN NIAGARA COUNTIES... At 243 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Grand Island, or near Tonawanda, moving southeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. Locations impacted include... Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Niagara Falls, West Seneca, North Tonawanda, Clarence, Kenmore, Depew, Amherst and Tonawanda. This includes Interstate 90 between exits 53 and 49.
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Buffalo NY 157 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... East central Niagara County in western New York... Orleans County in western New York... West central Monroe County in western New York... Northern Genesee County in western New York... * Until 230 PM EDT.. * At 156 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Albion to near Lockport, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Rochester, Greece, Brockport, Medina, Albion, Gates-North Gates, Spencerport, Byron, Middleport and Oakfield.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1524 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019 Areas affected...Portions of northern Pennsylvannia...western/central New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191738Z - 191945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A WW will be possible this afternoon as storms move into western NY/PA out of southern Ontario. Marginally organized storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms in southern portions of Ontario related to an MCV have begun to organize into a linear complex over the past hour. Updrafts have continued to deepen with an increase of 50 dBZ areal extent noted on the MRMS 5 and 9 km CAPPI. The downstream environment continues to destabilize with dewpoints broadly in the mid/upper-70s F and temperatures rising into the 80s F. By afternoon, temperatures rising into the upper 80s to low 90s F will support 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest shear profiles (25-30 kts 0-6 km) will support marginal storm organization. The main threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts as objective mesoanalysis depicts 1000-1300 J/kg DCAPE. Downdraft potential will likely increase as low-level lapse rates steepen as surface heating continues this afternoon. Weak low-level rotation may occur with storms interacting with the lake breeze front. Overall tornado potential will be low, however. A WW is possible later this afternoon. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
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Maybe this will mean we won't have to hear Ji complain in every winter thread... well, one can hope
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A magical STWatch has been issued for us until midnight
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Storms should improve in strength as they near the i95 corridor
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Pretty nasty CG strike just a minute ago here Torrential rainfall ongoing here
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Sun is back out after some torrential rain here... making it more humid
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Maybe a small part of it. LWX AFD mentioned the following:
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Sunny
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00z 3km NAM isn't bad for tomorrow... has some good storms in C MD into Baltimore and into parts of S MD... has a line that looks nice -- yes it skips the DC region for those that are going to meh it... 01z/02z HRRR both have some decent storms over the mountains getting ready to move eastward... 00z HRRR extended was better for those in MD than those in DC/VA
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You are def preparing for it when you said "eh it's okay for east of i95"
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Already calling another bust I see... figures
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So you are IN for tomorrow? Good to hear
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