yoda

Everybody should be breaking records easily tomorrow... possibly even the all time record... .CLIMATE... Significant record highs are possible on Wednesday. Here are the records for October 2nd and for the entire month. Site Oct 2 record All-time October record DCA 89 in 1986 96 on 10/5/1941 BWI 89 in 1986 97 on 10/5/1941 IAD 89 in 1986 94 on 10/9/2007

Yay for tomorrow... the CF can't come soon enough

If you want to go out there on the 06z GFS... suggestion is there for highs around 60 from October 12th and on to the end of the run. This is at or around DCA... so highs are in the 50s and even some upper 40s north and west of DCA

Looks like its beginning to weaken and fall apart

BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Special Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 ...LORENZO HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 45.0W ABOUT 1445 MI...2325 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 45.0 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Sunday, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast beginning Monday or Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will be approaching the Azores on Tuesday. Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and early Sunday. Lorenzo is expected to gradually weaken Sunday night through Tuesday, but it will remain a large and potent hurricane while it approaches the Azores. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

Hurricane Lorenzo Special Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 The satellite presentation of Lorenzo has improved throughout this evening, and the ring of cloud tops surrounding the eye have become wider and colder. This has resulted in both subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates increasing to a 6.5 on the Dvorak scale, indicative of a 125 kt hurricane. Based on this data, a special advisory is being issued at this time to increase the initial intensity, and the 12-hour and 24-hour forecast wind speeds. No other changes were required to the previous track or intensity forecast. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0000Z 23.8N 45.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto

LWX AFD talking about highs 15-20 degrees above normal next week with no talk of any cool down

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lorenzo continues to become better organized, with a small central convective feature surrounded by a large complex of outer bands in all quadrants except the northwest, where some dry air may be entraining. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMMS satellite consensus technique have increased to near 75 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The hurricane currently has good cirrus outflow in all directions. The initial motion is 285/15. The subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Lorenzo should steer the hurricane west- northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as a break develops in the ridge between 45W-50W. Lorenzo is subsequently forecast to turn northward into the break by 96 h and recurve into the westerlies around 120 h. While the guidance agrees with this scenario, there is some spread on the longitude of the recurvature between the easternmost GFS model and the westernmost ECMWF model. The new forecast lies between these models in best overall agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus guidance. Lorenzo should remain over warm water and in a light shear environment during the next three days, with the only negative factor for intensification being episodic intrusions of dry air. The intensity guidance forecasts continued steady strengthening, with rapid strengthening possible during the first 24-36 h. The new intensity forecast is increased from the previous forecast, and for the first 36-48 h it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The intensity forecast shows little change in strength between 36-72 h, although some fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles during this time. After 72 h, Lorenzo is likely to encounter some southwesterly shear, and thus some weakening is forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 14.1N 35.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 14.4N 37.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 15.3N 39.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 16.7N 40.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 18.4N 42.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 25.0N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 29.0N 42.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...LORENZO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 35.1W ABOUT 715 MI...1155 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 35.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the northwest is expected late Thursday or Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).

LWX's AFD from this morning seems to suggest that the models are bringing the furnace next week

And it begins URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Great Falls MT 223 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 MTZ009-010-044-046-048-049-251200- /O.NEW.KTFX.WS.A.0010.190928T0000Z-190930T0000Z/ Northern Rocky Mountain Front-Eastern Glacier-Toole- Eastern Pondera-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Eastern Teton- Including Logan Pass, Marias Pass, Browning, Heart Butte, Cut Bank, Shelby, Sunburst, Brady, Conrad, Bynum, Choteau, Augusta, Fairfield, and Dutton 223 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of 18 to 36 inches, with locally higher amounts in the mountains. Record or near-record temperatures in the teens and 20s with wind chills zero to 15 above zero. North to northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Northern Rockies, Rocky Mountain Front, and adjacent plains of north-central Montana. * WHEN...From Friday evening through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Extreme impacts possible, including to power infrastructure including power lines resulting in widespread power outages, agricultural interests; outdoor recreational interests including camping and hunting activities; and travel. Widespread significant tree damage is possible with heavy wet snow and strong winds impacting trees with foliage. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This early-season winter storm and/or blizzard has the potential to set a new benchmark for snow accumulations, cold temperatures, and resulting impacts for parts of the Northern Rockies and the Rocky Mountain Front. A similar storm in 1934 produced prolific amounts of snow in late September over north-central Montana. An extension and/or expansion of Winter Storm Watches are likely. * CONFIDENCE...High on accumulations, winds, and expected impacts. There is low to moderate confidence on the timing of onset and end of this winter storm event. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Missoula MT 203 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 MTZ002-252015- /O.NEW.KMSO.WS.A.0008.190928T0000Z-190930T0000Z/ West Glacier Region- 203 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total mountain snow accumulations of 1 to 3 feet possible. Total valley snow accumulations of 3 to 9 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Bad Rock Canyon, Essex, Highway 83 Bigfork to Swan Lake, Marias Pass, and Polebridge. * WHEN...From Friday evening through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

12z GFS doesn't have much in the MDR developing after Lorenzo recurves way out to sea in the middle of the ATL... there looks to be a system way out that forms and meanders in the Yucatan Peninsula as we get towards the end of the first week of October... and then looks like some homebrew at the very end of the run

Place holder for now BWI: 10/28 DCA: 11/11 IAD: 10/28 RIC: 11/06 Tiebreaker: 12.26"

From @griteater in the SE Forum... this would be nice if it were to come true for the winter

Ugh... another 90 degree day today... and looks like some more this upcoming weekend with HHH returning Friday-Sunday...

#faithintheflakes

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Yet another tropical storm has formed over the Atlantic, this one over the far eastern portion of the basin. The system has been designated as Tropical Storm Lorenzo based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, all of which support tropical-storm strength. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, but its possible this is somewhat conservative since the TAFB classification was a little higher. Recent GMI microwave imagery and ASCAT-C data showed that the low-level center of Lorenzo is on the north side of most of its deep convection. While this disorganized structure may limit how quickly Lorenzo can strengthen in the short-term, the tropical storm is located within a generally favorable environment for intensification. All of the intensity guidance shows Lorenzo becoming a hurricane, but the timing varies from model to model. The official forecast follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and shows Lorenzo reaching hurricane status within 48 h. Continued strengthening is forecast thereafter. No noteworthy changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast. The ASCAT and microwave data were very helpful in determining the location of Lorenzo's center and its forward speed. The cyclone has accelerated and the initial motion estimate is now 275/15 kt. Very little adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast. Lorenzo is still forecast to be steered generally westward to west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. The cyclone will pass well south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast in about 4 days as Lorenzo reaches a break in the ridge. Just like the intensity forecast, the track forecast is based heavily on HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 11.1N 24.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 11.5N 26.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 12.0N 28.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 12.5N 31.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 13.1N 34.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 14.6N 39.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 17.1N 43.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 20.5N 47.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 24.1W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 24.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest is expected starting tonight, and this is forecast to continue through the middle of the week. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should pass well to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Looks like it's going to end up being a major fish hurricane recurving way out in the Atlantic

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Updated for the low pressure area near the Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Updated: A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure area located between Barbados and Tobago, is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization. In addition, recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Triple phase LMAO

DO NOT WANT BOLDED BELOW... from this afternoon's AFD from LWX... I cut out the portion before the LONG TERM

Also because the upper air environment and upper level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development once the wave gets to near the Caribbean Sea