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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Doubt they will even get here... but might want to watch the storms in W PA moving SE... have had occasional TW's with them
  2. yoda
    Interesting Day 1 and 2 updates from SPC... day 1 - today - is 2/15/5 with talk of cellular activity producing hail and supercell possible Tomorrow (Monday) talks about a potential bow complex coming through in the afternoon
  3. yoda
    00z GFS sim radar likes Monday night, Tuesday night, and Thursday night
  4. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1085.html Mesoscale Discussion 1085 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Areas affected...Northern Missouri...eastern Kansas...and western Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362... Valid 160248Z - 160345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues for WW 362. Additional watches are being considered. DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a line of storms has developed a weak cold front extending from portions of western Illinois into northern Missouri and far eastern Kansas. In addition, a fairly well developed MCV is now associated with the northern end of this activity, now tracking into northern Illinois, and storms here are beginning to bow out. A few reports of large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) and strong wind gusts (60 mph) have occurred this evening. Given the ample supply of low-level moisture (high 60s to low 70s F dew point temperatures), instability (1500-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE), and deep-layer shear (40-45 kt effective bulk shear), the ongoing storms should continue to pose a severe threat, particularly across portions of north-central Illinois where a damaging wind threat may be emerging and thus, a new watch may be needed. Additional storms may develop farther west along the front extending into southeast Kansas, and thus may require an additional watch here. ..Karstens.. 06/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
  5. yoda
    00z NAM NEST lights up DC metro between 22z and 01z
  6. yoda
  7. yoda
    Well then, the 03z MON sounding at KIAD is certainly fun to look at from the 00z NAM
  8. yoda
    Waiting on the new 00z NAM... but 18z NAM soundings were pretty nice for 21z and 00z tomorrow
  9. yoda
    18z NAM soundings look tasty from 21z SUN to 09z MON
  10. yoda
    12z GFS soundings for KIAD and KDCA and KBWI at 00z MON (8pm Sunday) are pretty impressive considering its 60 hours out
  11. yoda
    00z GFS sim radar looks intriguing at 72 hours on 00z MON (8pm SUN) and then again at hours 93 and 96 as you go from 21z MON into 00z TUES and as you go on Wednesday into Thursday
  12. yoda
    Radarscope claiming rotation with the storm near Middleburg just a lil while ago
  13. yoda
    Looks pretty nice for Monday? Or is that Tuesday?
  14. yoda
    Anyone feel the earthquake this evening around 830pm?
  15. yoda
    Sunday into Monday looks intriguing
  16. yoda
    00z NAM looks a lil bit more intriguing for Thursday evening... at 21z THUR at KIAD, SBCAPE is around 1500, ML Lapse Rates around 6.5 C/KM, 0-6km shear around 65 kts, and MLCAPE just below 1000 with 0-3km CAPE around 170... SRH at all levels looks decent
  17. yoda
    12z NAM seems to think otherwise... its at the end of its run, at KIAD at 78 hours, it has ~1000 SBCAPE at 18z THUR with MLCAPE at around 650. 0-6km shear is flying at over 60 kts.
  18. yoda
    LWX in their afternoon AFD mentioned the chance for some severe early next week... on Monday I believe
  19. yoda
    Actually LWX is talking about flooding in their AFD this afternoon for Sundaybinto next week
  20. yoda
    I was about to say neither one of the NAMs nor the HRRR on their 00z runs looked particularly interesting at all tomorrow afternoon... hopefully it will change for the better tomorrow morning lol Wouldnt mind some night time storms though to be honest
  21. yoda
    lol There was an actual report of hail to the size of oreos to NWS... thats where that post came from.
  22. yoda
    Darn, I wanted hail the size of oreos
  23. yoda
    12z 3km NAM sim radar looks nice for tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night
  24. yoda
    Back in the SLGT risk for tomorrow, Wednesday
  25. yoda
    FWIW, LWX afternoon AFD mentioned the threat and said the shear is there and the shear profiles suggest severe storms, but instability is on question Maybe it will be one of those high shear low CAPE days?
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