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yoda

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Everything posted by yoda

  1. yoda
    00z GFS sim radar looks intriguing at 72 hours on 00z MON (8pm SUN) and then again at hours 93 and 96 as you go from 21z MON into 00z TUES and as you go on Wednesday into Thursday
  2. yoda
    Radarscope claiming rotation with the storm near Middleburg just a lil while ago
  3. yoda
    Looks pretty nice for Monday? Or is that Tuesday?
  4. yoda
    Anyone feel the earthquake this evening around 830pm?
  5. yoda
    Sunday into Monday looks intriguing
  6. yoda
    00z NAM looks a lil bit more intriguing for Thursday evening... at 21z THUR at KIAD, SBCAPE is around 1500, ML Lapse Rates around 6.5 C/KM, 0-6km shear around 65 kts, and MLCAPE just below 1000 with 0-3km CAPE around 170... SRH at all levels looks decent
  7. yoda
    12z NAM seems to think otherwise... its at the end of its run, at KIAD at 78 hours, it has ~1000 SBCAPE at 18z THUR with MLCAPE at around 650. 0-6km shear is flying at over 60 kts.
  8. yoda
    LWX in their afternoon AFD mentioned the chance for some severe early next week... on Monday I believe
  9. yoda
    Actually LWX is talking about flooding in their AFD this afternoon for Sundaybinto next week
  10. yoda
    I was about to say neither one of the NAMs nor the HRRR on their 00z runs looked particularly interesting at all tomorrow afternoon... hopefully it will change for the better tomorrow morning lol Wouldnt mind some night time storms though to be honest
  11. yoda
    lol There was an actual report of hail to the size of oreos to NWS... thats where that post came from.
  12. yoda
    Darn, I wanted hail the size of oreos
  13. yoda
    12z 3km NAM sim radar looks nice for tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night
  14. yoda
    Back in the SLGT risk for tomorrow, Wednesday
  15. yoda
    FWIW, LWX afternoon AFD mentioned the threat and said the shear is there and the shear profiles suggest severe storms, but instability is on question Maybe it will be one of those high shear low CAPE days?
  16. yoda
    5 people were injured in Prince William county https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_lwx/status/1135351055447801856 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 901 PM EDT SUN JUN 02 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0647 PM LIGHTNING 2 NNE CHERRY HILL 38.59N 77.26W 06/02/2019 PRINCE WILLIAM VA EMERGENCY MNGR *** 5 INJ *** PICNIC PAVILION STRUCK AT LEESYLVANIA STATE PARK. PEOPLE WERE SHELTERING UNDERNEATH. ONE WAS DIRECTLY STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. THE OTHER 4 WERE STRUCK BY DEBRIS FROM THE PAVILION.
  17. yoda
    Huh... never seen STW issued by Fairbanks AK WFO before... they have issued 3 tonight
  18. yoda
    Probably 545 I would guess reading the storm reports from Aspen Hill and Glen Echo ETA: https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_lwx/status/1135311056169869313 Rockville 5:50pm LSR
  19. yoda
    At 5:45 PM EDT, 3 SSW Damascus [Montgomery Co, MD] CO-OP OBSERVER reports HAIL of egg size (M2.00 INCH). HEN EGG SIZE HAIL https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_lwx/status/1135305756448677889
  20. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0952.html Mesoscale Discussion 0952 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2019 Areas affected...Eastern Virginia into the Delmarva Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022157Z - 022330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Numerous storms in central Maryland and north central Virginia have produced severe hail for the past couple of hours. A new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed downstream of watch 315 and 318. DISCUSSION...A combination of multicell and occasional right and left moving supercell thunderstorms have developed in north central Virginia and central Maryland over the past few hours. The environment ahead of these storms is characterized by around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km per RAP mesoanalysis. In addition, the LWX VWP shows around 30 knots of mostly unidirectional deep layer shear. This parameter space will continue to support both left and right moving storms with a primary threat of large hail with some damaging winds possible as well. A combination of ongoing convection drifting east-southeast out of the current watch area and new development on the southern flank of these storms may necessitate a new severe thunderstorm watch south and east of watch 315 and 318. The southern extent of the threat is uncertain. Primarily unidirectional westerly flow would suggest storm propagation mostly to the east, but guidance suggests thunderstorms will continue to develop southward with the cold front. However, by the time any storms arrive in far southern Virginia, the boundary layer may start to stabilize and limit the intensity of these storms.
  21. yoda
    At 5:40 PM EDT, 1 NE American Universit [District Of Columb Co, DC] TRAINED SPOTTER reports HAIL of ping pong ball size (M1.50 INCH). PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR INTERSECTION OF CONNECTICUT AVE NW AND BRANDYWINE ST https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_lwx/status/1135301967058677760
  22. yoda
    Just got SVR warned
  23. yoda
    https://mobile.twitter.com/islivingston/status/1135301964244410368
  24. yoda
    Wonder if Ian got any golf ball sized hail
  25. yoda
    Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 541 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019 DCC001-MDC033-022200- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-190602T2200Z/ District of Columbia DC-Prince Georges MD- 541 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA AND WEST CENTRAL PRINCE GEORGES COUNTIES... At 540 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm producing large hail was located over Adams Morgan, or over Howard University, moving southeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Langley Park, Coral Hills, Bladensburg, Fort Totten, RFK Stadium, Nationals Park, Howard University, Gallaudet University, Landover, Hyattsville, Takoma Park, East Riverdale, Riverdale Park, Cheverly, Marlow Heights, Seat Pleasant, Anacostia, American University, Kenilworth and Georgetown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows. To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia.
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