Jump to content

yoda

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    62,104

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by yoda

  1. yoda
    For our DE and MD peeps who are in PHL CWA but post here WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 274 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 533 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2019 DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-009-011-033-290200- /O.EXA.KPHI.TO.A.0274.000000T0000Z-190529T0200Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 274 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING IN DELAWARE THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL DELAWARE KENT IN NORTHERN DELAWARE NEW CASTLE IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE SUSSEX IN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND CAROLINE CECIL KENT QUEEN ANNE`S TALBOT IN NEW JERSEY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND SALEM THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ATLANTIC CITY, CENTREVILLE, CHESTERTOWN, DENTON, DOVER, EASTON, ELKTON, GEORGETOWN, HAMMONTON, MILLVILLE, OCEAN CITY, PENNSVILLE, AND WILMINGTON.
  2. yoda
    Hmmm Mesoscale Discussion 0861 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019 Areas affected...Portions of northern Virginia into Maryland and Delaware Concerning...Tornado Watch 274... Valid 282134Z - 282300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 274 continues. SUMMARY...Severe potential increasing across portions of eastern Maryland into Delaware and southern New Jersey, both with supercells approaching from the northwest in Pennsylvania, and with the initiation of discrete convection along the Maryland border. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns, but an isolated tornado is also possible. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures are in progress across central Pennsylvania, several with a history of severe hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms will continue to propagate southeastward into an environment characterized by moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and adequate deep-layer shear (bulk effective shear values of 40-50 knots). Low-level speed and directional shear are adequate for supporting a continuance of supercell structures given the moderate buoyancy present, though the overall magnitudes of low-level shear suggests that large hail will be the main threats. A few stones may exceed 2.0 inches in diameter as well. Rain/hail loaded downdrafts may also induced damaging wind gusts. One of the stronger, more sustained supercell structures may also spawn a tornado or two, especially with storms farther to the northeast, where low-level directional shear is slightly more favorable for supporting sustained, low-level rotation. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
  3. yoda
    18z NAM NEST looks interesting... sups at 20z?
  4. yoda
    Refreshing the 18z NAM soundings
  5. yoda
    I might stay up to see the new Day 1 tonight lol
  6. yoda
    IF (a big IF) something gets toward the M/D line, I could see LWX adding a few counties to the watch later this evening... or is it SPC that does that?
  7. yoda
    Guess Eskimo Joe loses $20
  8. yoda
    Tornado Watch issued to our north... no LWX counties in it... 50/20 probs on TOR
  9. yoda
    Woah... 1730 SPC discussion is
  10. yoda
    Appears you have made a good call about tomorrow... entire LWX CWA included in SLGT risk in 1730 SPC OTLK... ENH risk for all of S PA and all of MD and N VA and DC
  11. yoda
    Do you know if LWX is doing one? Or since they are barely out of SLGT they will not do one?
  12. yoda
    SLGT risk includes all of C and N MD on the 1630 OTLK... so that is probably why
  13. yoda
    That sucks... pure blue sky here with lots of sun. Hopefully the clouds will clear shortly so you can get in on the sun
  14. yoda
    Updated morning AFD seems to think there is at least an isolated risk to the DC metro region -- the zones (updated as of 10:30am) also have the severe wording into the DC Metro as well
  15. yoda
    I'm confused... does this mean that the GFS is better for us than the NAM because the front moves toward us faster?
  16. yoda
    SARS is off the charts silly for hail at 21z TUES at KDCA
  17. yoda
    @Kmlwx @high risk 00z NAM tossing out some silly soundings again from 18z TUES to 00z WED lol ETA: Check out 21z TUES at KBWI
  18. yoda
    Looks like there are a few storms popping up ahead of the rain complex
  19. yoda
    I'm gonna guess that we in VA are done for severe unless that complex in E WV spruces up
  20. yoda
    Damn... that's an awesome pic!
  21. yoda
    I think we're going to set a record... 3 different MDs issued across the area and no watch lol... each MD had 40 percent chance too
  22. yoda
    LWX reissued the SPS Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 542 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-501>508- VAZ025>031-036>040-050>057-501>508-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-270000- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Extreme Western Allegany- Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant- Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Frostburg, Cumberland, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Hightown, Monterey, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Romney, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, Moorefield, Bayard, Mount Storm, Petersburg, Elk Garden, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, Fort Ashby, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove 542 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019 ...Severe Thunderstorms Likely This Evening... Widely scattered thunderstorms will be popping up anywhere in Maryland between the Chesapeake Bay and the Appalachians, northern and central Virginia, eastern West Virginia, and the District of Columbia late this afternoon. Activity will become numerous this evening. Any thunderstorm today will be capable of becoming severe, with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats. Anyone who plans on being outdoors should pay close attention to the latest forecasts. Stay alert for warnings and be prepared to seek shelter quickly should thunderstorms occur. If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are close enough to be in harm`s way.
  23. yoda
    Well SPC issued a 3rd MD... 3rd times the charm?
  24. yoda
    Afternoon LWX AFD
  25. yoda
    Another MD for the region https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0811.html Mesoscale Discussion 0811 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261745Z - 261945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms are beginning to redevelop in eastern West Virginia with damaging winds possible. Storm coverage will likely increase this afternoon, but severe coverage remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...Storms from this morning have continued over central/southern PA while the storms over Del-Mar-Va were unable to sustain themselves. New storms have begun to initiate in eastern WV with a building Cu field over northern VA. Severe storms remain likely over this area during the afternoon into the evening as thinking has not changed since MCD 808. Given the CAPE/shear, isolated supercells are likely with damaging wind gusts the main threat as low-level lapse rates steepen from daytime heating. Severe hail is also possible, but mid-level lapse rates are marginal. The lingering question remains severe storm coverage with uncertainty regarding how many supercells will develop or if any upscale organization can occur with the vorticity max/shortwave trough moving over the area. ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 05/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
×
×
  • Create New...