yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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Weren't the models more suggesting evening time for us potentially? Like 6 to 10pm?
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The 17z PIT sounding upstream looked fine to me... waiting for the 18z KIAD one
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Where's the quickest to see the 18z RAOB? SPC sounding page?
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Where's our MD? Should be interesting to see what the 18z SPEC sounding from KIAD shows in about 20 minutes
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Oh I know... just it's a lil laughable that the same places have been SLGT or ENH for 3 days in a row now. We dont see that very often in our parts
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Lol 1730 SPC disco sounds good for tomorrow... then you look at where the slight risk is and then you have to laugh
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Pretty impressive looking sim radar
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Tornado watch coming for PA and NJ and extreme NE MD and northern DE
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I believe Eskimo Joe posted earlier that 12z IAD RAOB had convT of 89 degrees... so that's probably why the cap is breaking
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Blue box went up for Ohio into W PA and stopped there... maybe a red box for central and eastern PA in a lil bit? Just guessing as only PBZ counties are in the watch... no CTP counties
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Thank you for the clarification regarding the color
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1630 SPC probs and risk areas pretty much remained same... 30 wind and 30 hail for N VA into PA including DC/BALT metro areas... only real change was the 5% TOR was moved north slightly from N VA into N MD
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Looks like it will be a red box too
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Well that was fast after the MCD was issued -https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0290.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 290 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM EDT Wed May 29 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme northeastern Kentucky Far western Maryland Panhandle Extreme southeastern Ohio Much of West Virginia * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1150 AM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of storms approaching the Ohio River will likely maintain or increase in intensity this afternoon, and other more isolated storm development will be possible across West Virginia. The storm environment favors organized clusters and perhaps some supercell structures capable of producing damaging winds and large hail.
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Off to our west in W VA -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0880.html
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tomorrow
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Might be our first day of HX around 100... the AFD mentioned that as well
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That makes sense... thanks
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Also decent SRH(near 200)... so maybe some embedded sups or mesovorticies?
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You sort of win... but its 5/30/30 for N VA and DC and MD into S PA
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Both 01z and 02z HRRR at the very end of their runs have storms exploding across the region around 19z
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00z NAM sim radar keeps us dry all day until a bow echo or squall line comes dropping in between 00z and 03z THUR 00z NAM also shows some nice ML Lapse rates in the evening as well
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I'm sure this has been discussed in this thread already... but this is super awesome
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For our DE and MD peeps who are in PHL CWA but post here WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 274 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 533 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2019 DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-009-011-033-290200- /O.EXA.KPHI.TO.A.0274.000000T0000Z-190529T0200Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 274 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING IN DELAWARE THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL DELAWARE KENT IN NORTHERN DELAWARE NEW CASTLE IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE SUSSEX IN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND CAROLINE CECIL KENT QUEEN ANNE`S TALBOT IN NEW JERSEY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND SALEM THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ATLANTIC CITY, CENTREVILLE, CHESTERTOWN, DENTON, DOVER, EASTON, ELKTON, GEORGETOWN, HAMMONTON, MILLVILLE, OCEAN CITY, PENNSVILLE, AND WILMINGTON.
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Hmmm Mesoscale Discussion 0861 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019 Areas affected...Portions of northern Virginia into Maryland and Delaware Concerning...Tornado Watch 274... Valid 282134Z - 282300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 274 continues. SUMMARY...Severe potential increasing across portions of eastern Maryland into Delaware and southern New Jersey, both with supercells approaching from the northwest in Pennsylvania, and with the initiation of discrete convection along the Maryland border. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns, but an isolated tornado is also possible. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures are in progress across central Pennsylvania, several with a history of severe hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms will continue to propagate southeastward into an environment characterized by moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and adequate deep-layer shear (bulk effective shear values of 40-50 knots). Low-level speed and directional shear are adequate for supporting a continuance of supercell structures given the moderate buoyancy present, though the overall magnitudes of low-level shear suggests that large hail will be the main threats. A few stones may exceed 2.0 inches in diameter as well. Rain/hail loaded downdrafts may also induced damaging wind gusts. One of the stronger, more sustained supercell structures may also spawn a tornado or two, especially with storms farther to the northeast, where low-level directional shear is slightly more favorable for supporting sustained, low-level rotation. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
