yoda

00z 12km NAM looks decent... has what looks to be a complex of storms (MCS?) Roll through the DC metro region around 03z MON 00z 3km NAM NEST looks intriguing from 00z to 04z MON... looks like a sup comes rumbling down i66 corridor from 02z to 04z

Dont forget that the Blue Angels and Thunderbirds are flying over the Baltimore and DC metro region tomorrow between 1130 am and 1215pm to honor first responders and essential workers... flyover flight plans are in the link below https://wtop.com/local/2020/05/blue-angels-and-thunderbirds-to-soar-above-dc-baltimore-in-tribute-to-essential-workers/

Ah, ping pong ball hail to maybe golf ball then... guess our ML Lapse rates are good enough?

I think it will depend on where the front (warm front?) sets up shop... could maybe be an isolated tornado if it rides the west to east front? And big hailers are what to you? The usual quarter to half dollar size around here or bigger?

5% tor in IL/SE IA/NE MO in new day 2

LWX in their evening AFD update now mentions a risk for a few thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon... so I guess they are leaning toward HRRR?

Maybe a lil something? Day 2 morning OTLK from SPC

https://mobile.twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/1250882075999080448

Confirmed EF1 tornado in Carroll county on Monday https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202004152000-KLWX-NOUS41-PNSLWX&fbclid=IwAR1v0GiDT6Plc6TB1CFU8BtJI8JlGNWufJewk9olrBhScRSUFTQ2zCCov7U

Storm warned in NE Randolph county in WV updated as of 11am for 80mph winds still

Will likely effect EZF region in an hour BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Wakefield VA 655 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Louisa County in central Virginia... Southeastern Prince Edward County in central Virginia... Northwestern Nottoway County in south central Virginia... Goochland County in central Virginia... Northwestern Hanover County in central Virginia... Northwestern Amelia County in central Virginia... Powhatan County in central Virginia... * Until 745 AM EDT. * At 655 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles north of Hadensville to Trenholm to near Hampden Sydney College, moving northeast at 60 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and powerlines. * Severe thunderstorms will be near, Louisa, Mineral and Trenholm around 700 AM EDT. Goochland and Bumpass around 705 AM EDT. Oilville, Jetersville and Gum Spring around 710 AM EDT. Amelia Courthouse, Morven and Tobaccoville around 715 AM EDT. Montpelier, Chula and Ballsville around 720 AM EDT. Powhatan and Macon around 725 AM EDT. Sabot around 735 AM EDT. Tuckahoe and Manakin around 740 AM EDT

True... LWX AFD said between 9am and 3pm for our severe threat

60/30 tor probs

Tornado Warning VAC067-089-143-690-130930- /O.NEW.KRNK.TO.W.0003.200413T0901Z-200413T0930Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA 501 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Pittsylvania County in south central Virginia... The City of Martinsville in south central Virginia... Central Henry County in south central Virginia... Eastern Franklin County in west central Virginia... * Until 530 AM EDT. * At 501 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Martinsville, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Martinsville... Sydnorsville... Penhook... Snow Creek... Leatherwood... Villa Heights... and Chatmoss. This includes The following Locations The Martinsville Speedway and Martinsville Airport.

New TOR Watch coming soon for S VA into NC = https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0377.html Mesoscale Discussion 0377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2020 Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern North Carolina into southern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 130840Z - 131015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe weather potential with an evolving squall line is expected to increase across the region through daybreak and beyond, accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. DISCUSSION...The southern portion of a deepening elongated surface cyclone, centered over the Great Lakes, will continue to shift across and east of the Appalachians through 11-13Z, ahead of the remnants of a vigorous short wave impulse approaching the Appalachians. Aided by strengthening southerly low-level flow, including 50-70 kt at 850 mb, moisture return is ongoing across much of the southern Mid Atlantic. Surface dew points are now rising through the mid/upper 60s across much of central and eastern North Carolina, and this moisture is expected to continue to advect northward ahead of the evolving squall line, into much of southern/eastern Virginia through daybreak into mid/late morning. This will contribute to boundary-layer destabilization sufficient to support at least the maintenance of vigorous convection, with continuing intensification possible, accompanied by the the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few embedded tornadoes. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/13/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...

down the road a few hours for us maybe... BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA 435 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Stokes County in north central North Carolina... Western Rockingham County in north central North Carolina... Eastern Yadkin County in northwestern North Carolina... Southwestern Campbell County in central Virginia... Western Pittsylvania County in south central Virginia... The City of Martinsville in south central Virginia... South central Bedford County in south central Virginia... Henry County in south central Virginia... Southeastern Franklin County in west central Virginia... Southeastern Patrick County in southwestern Virginia... * Until 530 AM EDT. * At 435 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Sontag to near Clemmons, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Eden... Martinsville... Rocky Mount... Altavista... Wentworth... Mayodan... and Madison. This includes The following Locations The Martinsville Speedway and Martinsville Airport.

Short Term Forecast National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 412 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 DCZ001-MDZ013-504-506-VAZ053-054-130900- District of Columbia-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Prince Georges-Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- 412 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 ...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA... At 4 AM EDT, very heavy rain was moving northeast out of northern Virginia into the Washington metro area. As it moves through, this will cause hazardous driving conditions and poor drainage flooding between 4 and 6 this morning. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

LWX morning disco on our threat

Thats new (re bolded)... never seen that before BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 357 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Garrett County in western Maryland... Tucker County in northeastern West Virginia... Preston County in northeastern West Virginia... * Until 500 AM EDT. * At 356 AM EDT, the back end of severe showers and isolated thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Newburg to near Belington, moving northeast at 65 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts to 65 mph. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some power outages. * Locations impacted include... Kingwood... Mountain Lake Park... Oakland... Parsons... Terra Alta... Davis... Thomas... Rowlesburg... Bittinger... Grantsville... Loch Lynn Heights... Friendsville... This includes the following highways... Interstate 68 in Maryland between mile markers 1 and 29. Interstate 68 in West Virginia between mile markers 17 and 32.

DPs are approaching 60 on southerly winds across the region - https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=RWR

Tornado Watch(es) coming soon in NC -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0373.html

Really?

So ENH risk (because of wind)... I'll go big... as usual lol... 10% TOR hatched, 15% hail, 30 % wind hatched

DPs beginning to rise through the 50s across the region