yoda

No TD at 11pm... guess we will wait till tomorrow

I think he meant the website weathermodels... not the actual ones... at least I thought that @TradeWinds is that what you meant? Or were you trolling about the actual weather models themselves?

Shows how much it was forgotten by me since it was sheared to pieces in the GOM before Laura Guess it will be Nana then

Well here comes Marco that will move out to sea... 3. An area of low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern coast of the United States in a day or two. Subsequent development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast of the U.S. and then away from land. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 251 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020 DEC001-003-MDC015-029-281930- /O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0270.000000T0000Z-200828T1930Z/ New Castle DE-Kent DE-Kent MD-Cecil MD- 251 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEW CASTLE...NORTHWESTERN KENT...NORTHEASTERN KENT AND SOUTHEASTERN CECIL COUNTIES... At 250 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Warwick, or near Middletown, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Wind damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible. Locations impacted include... Middletown, Smyrna, Clayton, Cheswold, Warwick, Sassafras, Delaney Corner, Green Spring, Townsend, Odessa and Chambersville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Protecting yourself from immediate threats to life and safety shall take priority. Whenever possible, as long as it does not cause greater harm, all COVID-19 protective action guidance should be followed. Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside should seek shelter inside a well-built structure and away from windows. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3944 7582 3947 7572 3945 7555 3937 7548 3920 7557 3936 7586 TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 290DEG 21KT 3941 7575 HAIL...2.00IN WIND...60MPH $$ Staarmann

You should use the uber banhammer

STW till 8pm for northern 2/3rds of LWX CWA

1630 disco

1630 SPC OTLK SLGT risk for most of LWX CWA into C VA

This is interesting... wave going to break in 2 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression Laura, centered inland over Arkansas. Future advisories will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center. A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the eastern Caribbean islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The northern part of this wave, which should move rapidly westward over the central Atlantic during the next few days, is not forecast to develop as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions. However, the southern part of the wave is expected be nearly stationary south of the Cabo Verde Islands for the next several days, and some development of this system is possible early next week when it begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1112 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1101 PM TSTM WND GST 1 E HAYES 44.37N 101.00W 08/27/2020 M104 MPH STANLEY SD PUBLIC PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

97mph wind gust reported in the MCS in SD tonight PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1119 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1100 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ENE BUNKER 44.25N 101.06W 08/27/2020 M97 MPH STANLEY SD PUBLIC PERSONAL WEATHER STATION. RADAR ESTIMATED TIME AND APPROXIMATE LOCATION.

ENH risk on new Day 2 for E IA/N IL/S WI

@weatherwiz is going to go full weenie when he sees the new Day 2 from SPC... ENH risk with 30% hatched wind... 5% tor... and 15% hatched hail in SE NY/NE PA/NW NJ

00z NAM looks intriguing sounding-wise for late Friday afternoon into the overnight

Afternoon AFD from LWX sounds good

STWatch issued to our NW in PA till 9pm https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0449.html

Still ENH/30% wind at 1630 SPC update

MCD issued to our NW in PA... 60 percent chance of watch https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1568.html

Day 2 SVR SLGT risk moved to our NW... SLGT in C MD/NW VA/E WV.... DC/BWI/EZF in MRGL

ENH risk for today... moved slightly more to the west and south across N VA and C MD

SLGT risk for Tuesday and Wednesday

SLGT risk for Tuesday... mainly for damaging winds

down to 20 percent in the 8pm TWO Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Laura, located near the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a broad area of low pressure and tropical wave. This disturbance is expected to move westward across the Cabo Verde Islands on Saturday and it will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall there. Some slow development of this wave is possible during the next couple of days while it moves across the eastern tropical Atlantic before environmental conditions become less favorable for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi

NHC doesn't seem too enthused about it in the 2AM TWO -- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/190524_MIATWOAT.shtml