yoda

Not going to post them as there are many -- but the soundings across the region from the 18z NAM at 18z MON are just ridiculously silly. Something we see maybe once in a long while

So... who's staying up tonight for the 00z NAM run and the new Day 2 outlook?

Well the afternoon AFD from LWX seems to be leaning that way IMO with its severe talk

Wouldn't be surprised to see ENH for us on Day 2 tonight and MOD down in the Carolinas... maybe into S VA

New day 3 map

LWX states severe threat is increasing in their afternoon AFD

Regular 12z NAM soundings at 18z MON were not pretty looking at the soundings across the region... suxh as BWI/IAD/DCA/EZF... SBCAPE likely overdone, but even half of what it shows would be dangerous around here

CWG posted an article about the threat https://mobile.twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1249032861379936257

New day 3 OTLK disco adds even more intrigue for our region lol

Intriguing disco as well for our region from the morning Day 2 OTLK:

Day 3 OTLK should be intriguing to see in about an hour... but here is the new day 2:

From the 21z SREFs on the SPC website:

Even at 21z MON across the region, 00z NAM is still printing out SBCAPE values around 2000 with pretty good deep layer shear

That is not a very friendly sounding at KCHO at 15z MON from tonights 00z NAM

Plus 18z NAM is trying hard for around 2000+ SBCAPE at 18z and 21z MON across the region... along with 40 to 50 kts of deep layer shear... plus looks like there is still some leftover low level shear too at 18z and 21z ETA: plus having 180 to 200 J/KG of MLCAPE at the 0-3km level isn't good

That's only what, 80mph winds 3,000 feet or so above the surface?

Anybody else catch the LWX afternoon AFD mentioning a possible repeat of February?

12z NAM still hitting the soundings hard from around 09z to 21z or so across the region on Monday

Could you post a link to that again? I seem to have lost my link to that as it's not in my weather bookmarks folder anymore

@high risk 00z NAM soundings for 12z MON are pretty impressive.. even with only around 500 J/KG of SBCAPE

So approaching 60 kts right off the deck towards DC... just a little windy

and later today from new Day 1 SPC OTLK

For overnight Mesoscale Discussion 0321 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020 Areas affected...West Virginia into western Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 090450Z - 090645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A line of severe storms may still be severe as it approaches the eastern parts of Tornado Watch 93. DISCUSSION...A strongly forced line of storms with history of damaging winds continues rapidly eastward at over 50 kt. VWPs ahead of the line indicate modest southwesterly winds just off the surface, which is helping to increase moisture and instability values to the east, and despite relatively cooler surface temperatures. Despite marginal instability, the high level of organization suggests some chance of continued severe wind threat as the line approaches eastern WV and possibly across the VA border. Trends will continue to be monitored, and another watch may need to be considered. ..Jewell/Hart.. 04/09/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

Probably not going to be severe by time it reaches us... but SPC just issued a Tornado Watch till 4am for a good amount of counties in West Virginia and pushes into the central portion of West Virginia https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0093.html

Hmmmm... LWX seems to think there will be a chance for some severe late tonight in the form of damaging winds out in the western part of the forum with wording in the zones and updated evening AFD: