yoda

For those that want to look at the 5/31/2008 event - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20080531 ETA -- 120 hours would be the weekend, yes? Saturday or Sunday? And could you link me to the CIPS severe again? I lost my link

Things... but I'd rather not get into it and derail this further. Rather keep this thread banter related... like how the Capitals suck

If you live in Binghamton... article says not in Western New York. Perhaps later maybe... nice to see snow in Buffalo today though

And people who are just posting stuff to get a rise out of others and cause trouble. Why don't you go back to posting about it at the political forum? Oh wait...

Nope... though i see quite alot of people defending him on Twitter... which is no surprise either

Welp, he wasn't playing much recently for the Caps anyway... but looks like Leipsic will be gone after what happened earlier today... wouldn't be surprised if Hathaway and Dowd want to punch him in the face @nj2va @Chris78 @nw baltimore wx @Scraff https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/capitals/capitals-condemn-offensive-comments-made-brendan-leipsic

Anybody want some snow into i95 like the NAM shows? Anyone?

Rumors are that the AHL may cancel the rest of the season on Friday... they are having a conference call https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2020/05/snapshots-penguins-toronto-ahl.html?fv-home=true&post-id=120053

LWX afternoon AFD seems to be suggesting that the front didnt get as far south as they thought it would... so places up by DC may be in the game this evening for a severe storm

00z NAM and 3km NAM sim radar look interesting around 03z/04z MON... I guess some sort of an MCS? Both 00z WRF-ARW and 00z WRF-ARW2 keep majority of storms down by EZF 00z WRF-NMM looks more like the NAM twins but is an hour or 2 faster 00z HRDRPS looks fun DC south

18z NAM soundings at KIAD for 00z MON and 03z MON looked pretty good to me... decent SBCAPE and shear... would suggest that the WF or west to east front is somewhere in C MD Sim radar didnt look too bad on either of the 18z NAMs or RGEM... 18z long range HRRR did suggest though that the front is in N VA as it has best storms just south of me toward EZF

00z 12km NAM looks decent... has what looks to be a complex of storms (MCS?) Roll through the DC metro region around 03z MON 00z 3km NAM NEST looks intriguing from 00z to 04z MON... looks like a sup comes rumbling down i66 corridor from 02z to 04z

Dont forget that the Blue Angels and Thunderbirds are flying over the Baltimore and DC metro region tomorrow between 1130 am and 1215pm to honor first responders and essential workers... flyover flight plans are in the link below https://wtop.com/local/2020/05/blue-angels-and-thunderbirds-to-soar-above-dc-baltimore-in-tribute-to-essential-workers/

Ah, ping pong ball hail to maybe golf ball then... guess our ML Lapse rates are good enough?

I think it will depend on where the front (warm front?) sets up shop... could maybe be an isolated tornado if it rides the west to east front? And big hailers are what to you? The usual quarter to half dollar size around here or bigger?

5% tor in IL/SE IA/NE MO in new day 2

LWX in their evening AFD update now mentions a risk for a few thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon... so I guess they are leaning toward HRRR?

Maybe a lil something? Day 2 morning OTLK from SPC

https://mobile.twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/1250882075999080448

Confirmed EF1 tornado in Carroll county on Monday https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202004152000-KLWX-NOUS41-PNSLWX&fbclid=IwAR1v0GiDT6Plc6TB1CFU8BtJI8JlGNWufJewk9olrBhScRSUFTQ2zCCov7U

Storm warned in NE Randolph county in WV updated as of 11am for 80mph winds still

Will likely effect EZF region in an hour BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Wakefield VA 655 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Louisa County in central Virginia... Southeastern Prince Edward County in central Virginia... Northwestern Nottoway County in south central Virginia... Goochland County in central Virginia... Northwestern Hanover County in central Virginia... Northwestern Amelia County in central Virginia... Powhatan County in central Virginia... * Until 745 AM EDT. * At 655 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles north of Hadensville to Trenholm to near Hampden Sydney College, moving northeast at 60 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and powerlines. * Severe thunderstorms will be near, Louisa, Mineral and Trenholm around 700 AM EDT. Goochland and Bumpass around 705 AM EDT. Oilville, Jetersville and Gum Spring around 710 AM EDT. Amelia Courthouse, Morven and Tobaccoville around 715 AM EDT. Montpelier, Chula and Ballsville around 720 AM EDT. Powhatan and Macon around 725 AM EDT. Sabot around 735 AM EDT. Tuckahoe and Manakin around 740 AM EDT

True... LWX AFD said between 9am and 3pm for our severe threat

60/30 tor probs

Tornado Warning VAC067-089-143-690-130930- /O.NEW.KRNK.TO.W.0003.200413T0901Z-200413T0930Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA 501 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Pittsylvania County in south central Virginia... The City of Martinsville in south central Virginia... Central Henry County in south central Virginia... Eastern Franklin County in west central Virginia... * Until 530 AM EDT. * At 501 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Martinsville, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Martinsville... Sydnorsville... Penhook... Snow Creek... Leatherwood... Villa Heights... and Chatmoss. This includes The following Locations The Martinsville Speedway and Martinsville Airport.