Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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2017 was terrible for me, but the other analogs listed here weren't the worst.
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Both Frostburg and Bittinger mesonet sites had a sub-50 degree high today.
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NAM Nest insists on decent surface winds Thursday am commute.
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Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall
Eskimo Joe replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters
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Looks like we'll finally get a good autumn soaker. Even better, we're inside 60 hrs, so the chance of a last minute fail goes down.
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Just rage engagement farming.
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Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall
Eskimo Joe replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Welp -
I really like the positioning of the west coast ridge and Alaskan trough as we head into November. That's a decent sign for winter.
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RSTM2 COOP site - had my first sub 60 degree high of the autumn yesterday. Got down to 36 last night, yet somehow our hibiscus on the deck is still pumping out blooms.
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Thank you for the info, IAD seems to be an ice box compared to the other climate sites.
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Normal freeze date for IAD isn't until November, IIRC.
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Nice! Got sounding data to post?
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Eh, I'm not sold on that yet. If we get a cold December then I think you're on to something, but we seem to have this post Thanksgiving / early December torch every year the resets things.
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Heartbreak if you're south of it. Money if you're just north of it.
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Facts. I'd love a few legit cold powder clippers this winter.
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I always nitpick. It's my nature. I'm a firm believer that it's easier to reel in a storm if the western features are more cooperative. Helps to set the east coast trough up better.
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Sharpen that western CONUS ridge up a bit more and I'm all in.
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Blerg. I thought I cross pollinated this in the winter thread.
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Couple of very, very early thoughts as we continue to slide through autumn: 1.) Seems like the Euro OP midrange QPF bias beyond HR 150 is real. 2.) Long range warm ups may be head fakes. Also, as @mitchnick has observed it's good to see a persistent trough over Japan. 3.) I have no expectations that we're going to see some SECS or HECS this winter, but man it'd be nice to get a forum wide 6" - 10" event.
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Thank you for the analysis. I do appreciate it. Thank you. Seems like we don't torch and have a short to get at least one warning level snowfall event. I'll take it. I appreciate the insight. Thank you!
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Anyone got winter stats at BWI, IAD, or DCA for a cold November in a weak -ENSO or ENSO neutral?
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Just no rain on Halloween please.
