Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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I'm all in. 100% invested. It's game time. Let's do this.
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Blizzard. Wow.
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The 500mb progression on the NAM is just perfect for heavy snow in this area. Wow.
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NAM is the most aggressive with the flip to accumulating snow. We've seen the opposite before, where the NAM tries to flip us to sleet and we all laugh, until it happens. Hopefully the NAM is getting the vertical profiles correct and we all win.
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Based off the 18z suites thus far, mostly short term guidance, the changeover window for many is 15z in the far western suburbs to 19z for the I-95 corridor. Will be very interesting to see how this plays out tomorrow from a nowcasting standpoint.
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18z NAM is about to do NAM things. In CAMS we trust.
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AKQ going Blizzard Warnings for central and southern Delmarva. Wow.
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Yea. . . . .
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18z HRRR is a beast for DC northeast, not sure about that Frederick/Loudoun/western Montgomery snow hole. But Baltimore metro gets 6" - 10" of pancake batter.
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You'll be fine if you don't drive foolishly.
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Latest SREF is juiced. 10"+ from DC northeast.
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Given the wind and heavy wet snow risk, I would lean towards a low end warning event of 4" - 6".
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CTP hoisted warnings. LWX and PHI shouldn't be too far behind.
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Oh wow
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Base off the 12z Euro, I could see Washington County, MD and parts of the WV panhandle get added to the watch.
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Amazing trends at 500mb. Clearly closed, neutrally tilted mid level low.
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From a WPC met:
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12z GEFS mean liquid equivalent is 1"+ from I-95 east, 0.75" line back to Hagerstown, 0.5" line back to Oakland.
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Looks like the 12z GEFS again shifted west, much closer to Ocean City, appears any easterly outliers are gone.
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I would still trust the global guidance until 00z tonight. After that, I'd put more weights on the mesos.
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Looks like WPC probabilities of 6"+ are 50% for inside the DC Beltway, 70% further north into Annapolis and most of Baltimore metro.
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It's a Miller B, in DC, in LA Nina, at the end of February. Those are heart breakers 9 out of 10 times, yet we're still going to get snow. Where do I sign?
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