Eskimo Joe

Unbelievable. Back in the 90s you got heat stroke and liked it. You cooled off with a warm PBR and hanging out in the 700 level of the Vet. Kids these days are softer than Tasty Twisters Pretzels™.

According to my records, my Cooperative Observation site (RSTM2) has never recorded a 100° air temperature. Wonder if we may it this time? I'm leaning towards a no.

There's gotta be some kind of pooling in the mountains. Even the Poolesville sensor is showing a trend towards higher surface dews and HI.

Cumberland airport (KCBE) with a dew of 74° and HI of 101°. Impressive.

Interesting low level humidity increase in the mountains. Some dewpoints in the mid 70s already. Hancock mesonet site has a heat index of 99° already.

If we don't get some storms when this ridge breaks down a bit, then we're setting ourselves up for a very hot July.

Yea, historically east-based events are very unfavorable for snow.

Nearly all Euro ensemble guidance has Philly and Wilmington hitting 100° Thursday and Friday. Event ACY is in the upper 90s on Friday.

Impressive clustering from the EPS. Nearly all of it's ensemble members have DCA at or above 100° air temp on Thursday and Friday.

06z GFS/Euro try to keep the upper 90s to 100° through Sunday, 7/5.

It's 10 pm and our Baltimore City mesonet site, which is located on about 10 acres of grass, is still 80°.

Stacking hay this weekend and cleaning horse stalls.

I'm working outside Thur. - Sun. at the farm. If I'm going to suffer, I want to suffer in rare conditions.

Lets got for widespread 105/75

My COOP site (RSTM2) has never hit 100° either.

Same. This thing has been hyped so much that we almost need it to verify to save face.

If DCA hits 90° by 10am, 100° is almost a lock. You almost need 90°by 11am or its not happening. Getting 100° in these parts is rare, getting 100°+ is even rarer.

Mostly for inside the beltway to cover the urban watersheds that can flash quickly (Anacostia River, Sligo Creek, etc.) Some of the CAMs have been persistent in a narrow stripe of 1" -3" of rain in under 3 hours which would absolutely cause problems. The atmosphere is juiced with 70+ degree dewpoints.

Big west coast trough delivers snow to help aquifers, and hopefully pump that east coast ridge. Win win!

Speaking of TORs, looks like there may have been a brief spin up near Sussex County, DE today.

Went back and took another look at the 06/12z GFS. They both try to pop a 597dm ridge at the peak of the heat on Friday into Saturday. If this holds, then it open the doors to some possibilities: Scattered or even widespread 100 degree air temperatures are possible Thur - Sat The strength and placement of the ridge would preclude afternoon convection Low temperatures may fail to fall below 80 degrees, perhaps even the low 80s in the Urban Heat Islands We might see the heat wave tail into the end of the weekend

If, and it's still a decent if given the Euro mid range heat bias, the Euro is right then it's Excessive Heat Warnings for everyone even back to Cumberland and Keyser.

The 12z Euro and GFS actually upped the ante with the placement and strength of the 500 mb ridge. A stout 594dm ridge from the OH/KY border to Cape Hatteras. If that holds it's a legit setup for heat. Hope it holds, we haven't had a good heat wave in years!

06z Euro has afternoon air temperatures of 100 degrees for even the mountains. Even the 12z GFS lights everyone up. Impressive, but we're still a day or two out before this gets into the short range.

Forecasting a high of 100° for D4 sure is a thing.