Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Folks. . .
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Euro just swings the MJO through Phases 7, 8, 2, 1 with a tanking -AO, marginal NAO, +PNA, and -EPO. It's like the stars are trying to align.
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Agreed. This is probably our best shot for a widespread, warning level snowfall this season. My go/no go would be the 12z runs on Thursday, 1/22. My goal for this window is at least one, widespread warning level snowfall of 6"+. Bonus would be two, warning level snowfalls of 6"+. That would cement the region with it's first above normal snowfall in a decade. Bottom line: I'm very optimistic about the period Jan 25 - Feb 15.
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Strong signal for a plowable snowfall (maybe 4" - 8"?) at D7 is legit.
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January 18th Back Door NW Trend Snow OBS Thread
Eskimo Joe replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
Radar building across Delmarva and most of the Delaware/Maryland mesonet obs show a NW wind now. Looks like precip should be picking up in intensity for the southern NJ folks here within the hour. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Winter Weather Advisory for Lancaster & Lebanon counties extended to 6 pm this evening. Radar implies another coating to one inch of snow. -
12 GEFS-AI is money for this Frid-Sat potential. Cold powder, 850s, never get above -6, and some gul moisture to boot.
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@wxmeddler can probably provide more context, but it seems to me that it melted off to about 2", then another ~0.8" accumulated.
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Cold, dry, get your dehumidifiers and skin care routine prepped.
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While returns are light, they're building as far west as Central Wet Virginia. It would not surprise me to see a dusting to maybe half inch of snow in the metros and immediate suburbs with this second round this afternoon/evening if everything breaks our way.
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Two days in a row with snow. Nice.
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LWX bumped snowfall totals for tomorrow a bit.
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Advisories expanded
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You can tell today's 12z suite was legit good because the usual agitators are nowhere to be found.
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Afternoon Euro-AI now gives I-70 and points north a 10% chance of 6"+
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We're gonna a hit climo one tenth of an inch at a time!
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IIRC, advisory is 50% confidence to meet or exceed 2".
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Would love to see the mesos come in wetter and colder this evening.
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Woah
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I could see another 1" - 3" for Carroll, northern Baltimore/Harford/Cecil tomorrow.
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Exactly that same as Parkton mesonet site.
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Solid snow in Reisterstown. M1.0"
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This is like a mini 12/8/13
