Eskimo Joe

I'm working outside Thur. - Sun. at the farm. If I'm going to suffer, I want to suffer in rare conditions.

Lets got for widespread 105/75

My COOP site (RSTM2) has never hit 100° either.

Same. This thing has been hyped so much that we almost need it to verify to save face.

If DCA hits 90° by 10am, 100° is almost a lock. You almost need 90°by 11am or its not happening. Getting 100° in these parts is rare, getting 100°+ is even rarer.

Mostly for inside the beltway to cover the urban watersheds that can flash quickly (Anacostia River, Sligo Creek, etc.) Some of the CAMs have been persistent in a narrow stripe of 1" -3" of rain in under 3 hours which would absolutely cause problems. The atmosphere is juiced with 70+ degree dewpoints.

Big west coast trough delivers snow to help aquifers, and hopefully pump that east coast ridge. Win win!

Speaking of TORs, looks like there may have been a brief spin up near Sussex County, DE today.

Went back and took another look at the 06/12z GFS. They both try to pop a 597dm ridge at the peak of the heat on Friday into Saturday. If this holds, then it open the doors to some possibilities: Scattered or even widespread 100 degree air temperatures are possible Thur - Sat The strength and placement of the ridge would preclude afternoon convection Low temperatures may fail to fall below 80 degrees, perhaps even the low 80s in the Urban Heat Islands We might see the heat wave tail into the end of the weekend

If, and it's still a decent if given the Euro mid range heat bias, the Euro is right then it's Excessive Heat Warnings for everyone even back to Cumberland and Keyser.

The 12z Euro and GFS actually upped the ante with the placement and strength of the 500 mb ridge. A stout 594dm ridge from the OH/KY border to Cape Hatteras. If that holds it's a legit setup for heat. Hope it holds, we haven't had a good heat wave in years!

06z Euro has afternoon air temperatures of 100 degrees for even the mountains. Even the 12z GFS lights everyone up. Impressive, but we're still a day or two out before this gets into the short range.

Forecasting a high of 100° for D4 sure is a thing.

It builds character.

Yea it's been janky as heck for several days. Wonder if Stormtracker spilled a mint julep or something in the rack?

From what I can see now, if we're going to make a run at scattered or event widespread 100s, Thursday is the best day to do it.

Widespread triple digits are rare in these parts. Generally we need: Full sun 850 temps at or above +25°, and 925 temps at or above +27° The previous nighttime low to be at least 80° Have locations be at least 90° - 93° by 11:00 am the day of

My goal is to never have to use our damage assessment or debris management plan, so no.

Let's go for broke. 75 dews and a stout temp inversion. Like heat wave 1993.

Honestly, I wouldn't mind a few days near 100°. Even though I work outside it's nice to feel the heat for a few days. It lets you know you're alive, and this airmass seems to be more NW flow than some soupy tropical cluster. Those days are miserable.

Yes more details on this please so I can replicate!

Not sold on widespread 100s. It's several days out, some models like the Euro have a known mid range heat bias, and it's rare to get an airmass that supports many 100+ degree air temperatures readings. We probably won't know until next Tuesday if we're going to have a legit heat wave on our hands, or if this is just going to be a few hot days.

Evergreen posts in this subforum.

Bring.It.On

Yup. 18z NAM is rather dry. A narrow stripe of 1" - 2" along I-66, while just about everyone else gets less than half an inch.