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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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The short term model guidance is pretty toasty for early next week, especially the overnight lows.
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Happy solar noon on solstice day!
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Good call. My lawn gets mowed tonight.
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18z RAOB from IAD told the tale, plenty of surface CAPE and low level lapse rates, but absolutely pitiful mid level lapse rates and no shear. Had we better timing, this would've been a legit event for everyone.
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@wxmeddlerand I were wondering the same thing. Definitely pockets of high winds, almost very pulse based storms, but others saw very little.
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2025 Obs/Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
A lot of big trees down across NW Philadelphia County. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2025 Obs/Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
Probably going to need another TOR on that notch approaching NW Philly. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2025 Obs/Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
That call in PA is impressive. Close to 50kft tops and 62kt winds just off the surface. -
After this round it's likely over.
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Multiple storm related calls across MoCo & PG.
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M53kt DCA
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Parkton mesonet site gusted to 33 mph.
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That outflow boundary racing across Montgomery County is going to lay the tracks for something wicked further east.
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Annnnd the storms are starting to gust out along the US 15 corridor in Maryland. Obvious outflow boundary on LWX radar now.
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Only thing we have going against us are weak mid level lapse rates. Would lean towards the pulse type storms with a few decent wind reports today.
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Happy summer. Heat index mapping is now available through the statewide mesonet.
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It's out. Blue Box coming. Really like the new graphics from SPC.
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Best I've seen is 8+. We get that, we're in for high end. As I've said several times, good mid level lapse rates allow for storms to survive the rapid terrain changes in these parts. It's probably our best insurance policy for organized severe weather in these parts.
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IMO, 7.0 c/km or better.
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If we have decent mid level lapse rates, then today could be really fun for someone.
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Looks like we'll get a special 18z RAOB from IAD.
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@wxmeddler and I were thinking the same thing. Looks like the site got clipped.
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Almost midnight and the air temperatures are 80 to 83 degrees on lower and central Delmarva. Summer is definitely here.
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I could see a late morning upgrade to an ENH risk from I-66 north for a 30% wind. Timing is everything in these parts, if that front lags then it's going to come down to luck on who gets a decent storm. Seems like we flip to real summer after this frontal passage.
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