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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    I'm only interested in Carroll County today. I'm at my firehouse this evening so I'd like to run a couple calls. I doubt this turns into anything though. We're really fighting the clouds today.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Latest spc mesoanalysis puts a decent bit of helicity south of I70. The afternoon meso disco is going to be interesting.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    SPC actually expanded ENH up into PA. 10% tor, 30% wind up to MDT/RDG and back west to HGR.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    SPC keeps D1 ENH
  5. Eskimo Joe
    15z HRRR is hot garbage for everyone
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Finally some real clearing, even up to HGR. Wind shifted to WSW in Gaithersburg.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Same in Gaithersburg
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Lot of the short term guidance hitting the QLCS stuff vs. Tornado risk now. Wouldn't shock my if the afternoon update drops the 10%TOR but keeps the 30% WIND.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    How ironic would it be to have a D1 ENH and 10% tor, but we eind up with some generic tstorm line this afternoon in like central VA?
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Awful lot of clouds out there.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Nothing on CAD or our DOT feed. Really surprised. It came through Reisterstown as nothing but heavy rain. Radar looked a lot better than ground truth.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Interesting circulation near New Windsor, Carroll County
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like for today, the real activity for MD is back towards Cumberland.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    I'd gladly sacrifice today's activity to make tomorrow a sure thing especially if it meant Frederick/Carroll would get the bullseye.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    100% agree.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    DY1 MOD Risk for tornado is now 15% w/ SIG Severe. There's almost no chance we get that. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Tomorrow is an okay setup for N Central MD. I'm just glad we didn't get a DY2 MOD...that's the kiss of death in these parts.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Whining only travels at the speed of sounds, hence the delay in getting out to Oklahoma.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Are you endorsing tomorrow as a potential legit event?
  20. Eskimo Joe
    I-795 special with a UHI track to boot. EDIT: We're getting slighted for DY1 with the PM update.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    We got #1 (NE MD into PA) and #2 Isaias.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    I'm always skeptical of severe in these parts of the country. We have so many things that can and do go wrong (terrain, CAD, etc.) that it's hard to get excited until the event is unfolding or right on top of you. Even the other week we had a DY1 ENH that was crapola.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Always Really Wet
  24. Eskimo Joe
    All good points. Some could argue that Ivan in 2004 warranted a high risk for the area...there was something like 40 confirmed tornadoes from that event and it's highly unusual to have that number in this area. Heck, we get DY1 MOD Risk that "verifies" with like 7 EF-0 tornadoes. During Ivan, there was 29 F0/1, 10 F2, 1 F3.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Some decent training setting up along the Route 26 corridor.
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