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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Grew up in Philly. Big urban watersheds that flash quickly and have killed folks swimming in the creeks or fishing. The spike on discharge in Frankford Creek right now is something you only see during tropical storms.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    SPC issues Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 03:00 UTC Tues, 7/7
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Radar estimates crossing 3" now.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    12z IAD RAOB has a ConvT of 91°. Philly hit 91° and things went boom.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    FFW expanded to include Fairfax.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Accounts for meso boundaries. While definitely a true lower end slight for today, beefy SBCAPE and DCAPE means someone is gonna get rocked.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    80% of a WW: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md1116.html
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Landmass boundaries are going to be the initiation mechanism for today.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Without shear to move things along, it's going to be just pulsers with rogue wet microbursts.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Yea when those two cells were maintaining updrafts in an area of limited instability, you knew that was going to be a sign someone was going to win.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    If you re-rack the radar data from yesterday, it all started with those two cells in Cumberland that rode an outflow boundary out of Frederick.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Yea it definitely was a sneaky day. We get these events where it looks pretty benign and then you get a lone cell or three that would end up verifying a slight risk and a WW. Other times, it's a textbook setup and the entire subforum whiffs.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    M56mph at our EOC wx station in Gaithersburg.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    ML Lapse rates are poop and the shear is really lacking. This is isolated wet microburst / flooding.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Don't hold your breath.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    14 box in baltimore county for several vehicles in flood waters....Ruxton Rd at Circle Rd.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Unusually deep, rolling thunder and a lot of rogue CG in Reisterstown. Our younger cat is growling like a chain saw.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    RE: Ellicott City From the LWX hydro guru:
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Sustained convection east of I-81 will probably be sparse through 4pm. Despite the ConvT being reached the shear is minimal so it's going to be hard to sustain the updrafts.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    12z balloon from IAD has a Convective Temp of 87°
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Given strong insoltation and decent LL but weak ML lapse rates, there definitely is a wet microburst potential today.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like it's time for DC to get their storm.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    3rd line racing out of NOVA.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Little bit of hook there SW of Damascus?
  25. Eskimo Joe
    45kt win core on 0.5 degree BV right where the tops are shooting up and lightning spiking. Might be seeing an SVR here shortly.
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