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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Can we all make a pact to not look at or share the HRR or NAM past 24 hours? The MOD Risk bust in IL the other day should be a reinforcer to not trust meso models past HR 24.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    We're the Mid Atlantic, that's what went wrong.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Sun peeking out in Gaithersburg...hope se get a nice line or something this evening.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Given the dense cloud cover, safe to say today will be a classic Mid Atlantic Nothingburger™ unless things clear out fast.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Correct, it was between 8am - 10am. That event is a great reminder that if you get the dyanmics/instability right, the time of day doesn't matter.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    We had a 5% pity meso last time, but the low was about 7mb stronger and we were in Larko's Triangle.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    $20 says we see a quick temp spike pre-front as the low level inversion mixes out and we get a few SVRs / damaging wind reports tonight.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    I wonder if they are a bit gun shy after missing one of the largest winter tornado events in the Mid Atlantic the other week.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Yea, it's always a battle of the wedge. I've noticed that when you get a maturing/mature storm with decent low level jet moving into us it's easier to clear out the low levels. When you have to wait on the jet to strengthen over us then it's sketchy. I would imagine it might not be as hard to scour out the low level cold air this time because we have no snow cover and the ground isn't frozen up.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Classic early season "high shear low CAPE environment"
  11. Eskimo Joe
  12. Eskimo Joe
    We're long overdue for a big, multi-modal spring/summer severe season.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    HR132 on today's 12Z Euro OP at 500mb is
  14. Eskimo Joe
  15. Eskimo Joe
    The "we are due" index is pretty high in several areas specifically: 1.) Derecho 2.) Tropical system/remnants 3.) EF-2 or greater tornado 4.) Large scale river flooding event Sooner or later the pendelum is going to swing back on us.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    From a climo perspective we are due for a derecho.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Might want to wait another 24 hrs...don't need to jinx this.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    12 GEFS is a marked improvement for anyone north of I-66.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    If it's there at D5 or less than we're talking. Beyond that we've been burned too many times.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Yes. Less than 25% of the events are acceptable and the all but one of the minority that's good is only for the elite forum members in jackpotville.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    It's pretty meh.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    12" - 16" of pancake batter followed by 2" to 3" of ZR then a 3 day deep freeze. The icing on the cake would be the event popping up under 12-24 hours.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    You can't forecast an ice storm until about 12 to 18 hours out.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    This is a phenomenal write up, and it's obvious you went through a lot to collate the information, thank you. I have two follow up questions for BWI. 1.) Would it be possible to re-run the data for 10 inch or greater events? 2.) Would it be possible to re-run the data for days when the high temperatures was at or below 32 degrees at BWI? I'm curious to see if there is any strong correlation for cold weather.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    I think @Bob Chilland @psuhoffman mentioned this before. Worth a read:
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