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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    With the increase in SVRs and now even a TOR in PA, I'm surprised a severe thunderstorm watch hasn't been issued at least for southern PA and into northern MD.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    All of LWX and Delmarva (north of US 50) added to the DY1 slight...15% wind.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    The lone warned cell in Central PA so far has been the only thing producing sustained damage reports. That is probably being fed by a little vort max or something. I would argue it's probably going to be the main show and would scrape through Baltimore and Harford counties.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    At the risk of sounding optimistic, it should be noted that a subtle boundary was laid down across Frederick, Carroll, and Baltimore counties last night by the convection that drifted out of PA. It could lead to a quick spark of the convection coming out of PA.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Today has the feeling of something rogue dropping into our area on NW flow that turns into a big day for someone.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Nice picture. It's almost criminal to not be throwing a frog in that water. Looks like some prime bass fishing.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Next storm smells fishy, especially if it winds itself up up too fast.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like west of I-270 is the place to be today.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    80% chance of a T'storm watch shortly: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md1570.html
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Eh, it's okay. Mappy get a couple of 55dbz pixels over her. The rest is pretty typical summer storms. Nothing that would warrant an ENH. In fact, the 15z HRRR is mostly dry for the DY1 ENH area. The best activity is west of Westminster.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    They would certainly produce some rain for everyone's yards. It seems the HRRR has handled the morning batch of convection the "best". We are going to have to see what things look like around 5:00 pm or so. The action doesn't really appear to develop until it sinks south of the PA Turnpike. The latest HRRR, for example, has the line coming through the DC area around 23z to 01z. Not the greatest timing, but NW flow events usually jackpot someone.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Latest HRRR would at least water everyone's grass.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Not sure if this was already posted, but this thread is worth reading:
  14. Eskimo Joe
    I miss the days of getting a 8" - 12" storm, then a clipper a few days later that adds a nice 2" - 4" of fluff on top of everything. Clipper snows always have that nice little sweet spot surprise.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Everything correlates to a warm [insert winter month here] anymore in these parts.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Glad to see you back Joey!
  17. Eskimo Joe
    IMO, 93L needs to be at least a PTC. Several ASCAT passes show it's healthy, has a tightening circulation and isn't getting disrupted by anything (shear, etc.).
  18. Eskimo Joe
    We have a lot of DCAPE. Going to be some good wind reports today and some interesting multicell clusters.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    80% on the meso: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md1310.html
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Yup, beefy SBCAPe/DCAPE = localized woo storms.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Truly a hit-or-miss day. With SBCAPE well over 4,000 j/kg regionally the risk for numerous wet microbursts existed so the watch box is more than justified. Amazing how it's so varied across the area. In Reisterstown, we've got about 4 or 5 storms bubbling up around us but nada falling from the sky.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Man it would be sick if something triggered right around sunset. Get a nice overnight light show.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Grew up in Philly. Big urban watersheds that flash quickly and have killed folks swimming in the creeks or fishing. The spike on discharge in Frankford Creek right now is something you only see during tropical storms.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    SPC issues Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 03:00 UTC Tues, 7/7
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Radar estimates crossing 3" now.
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