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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Yea 00z tonorrow is big for me, need euro et al on board.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Man all we need to see is the GFS and EURO hold serve.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    You got any sauce for those of us stuck on mobile?
  4. Eskimo Joe
    When the GFS and Euro put ~1,000 SBCAPE for your area, yoi know you're staring at a potentially good event. If this holds, we definitely are looking at something fascinating.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    This is a great visualization of the expansive nature of the system as it moves up our way.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Shush. If they go D2 MOD then I'll agree. We can still fail on this in so many ways and I'm not going to be in 100% until 00z Monday but so far I'm liking what I'm seeing.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    I'm getting kind of excited now. These are all good trends up here.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Plenty of ways we can fail on this event, from timing to crapvection to clouds, etc but theres a high ceiling as well.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Yea that'll work this time of year. We just need a bit of SBCAPE and some sun to help the storms get rooted at the surface. This isn't some rotted out 1012mb low, it's going to be rapidly maturing so it won't take much.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Gotta wait and see what happens tomorrow and tomorrow night but so far I like what I see.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    If you have Twitter, follow Alicia. She's a wealth of synoptic knowledge
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Monday is so close to a big event in these parts. Slow thing down by about 2 to 5 hours and it could be really interesting.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Wow at the NAM....its stupid silly. Even half of what it's showing would be enough for an ENH risk level event here.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    NAM going just bonkers down into MS/AL. Like STP close to 10 bonkers.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    It would be a legit MOD or maybe HIGH risk day.
  16. Eskimo Joe
  17. Eskimo Joe
    HR84 on the 06z GFS is nice.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Here's ur answer from an SPC met:
  19. Eskimo Joe
    IIRC, CIPS is weighted towards GEFS from HR 72 and out which is a good.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    All good points, none of which will likely be resolved until about <12 hours out. We're just going to have to look for trends, timing, etc an monitor upstream conditions. If we see an overperforming event in Dixie Alley with discrete action ahead of the main line, all bets are off and it could be the event of the spring. If it's QLCS mess behind stratiform rain then we fail.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Flip side....it rains a lot and we get a QLCS that wrecks the trees because of saturated soil. Either way, the Sunday PM to Monday midday is looking busy in these parts.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Monday is starting to look interesting up even towards Baltimore and Frederick. It's going to be interesting to see how Sunday plays out down south...if things go as planned down there then we probably stand a good chance of seeing a decent line move through.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Posted by a met who I believe works for Mt Holly WFO
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Bring us home
  25. Eskimo Joe
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