ma blizzard

dam now thats a cold airmass! any speculation as to 850/925 temps with something like that? I'd guess the airmass was super cold in the lowest lvls, maybe only mixing to 950 or 925 that day? I mean if you were mixing to 850, it would have to be ~ -35 C during peak heating or something .. crazy

18z NAM looks solid even for pike region for an inch or two if the rates are there tmrw morning .. a little elevation will be helpful of course

verbatim NAM is prob advisory snows ORH hills .. maybe with good rates could erase the 1-2 C warm layer from surface to 950 mb NW of 90/495 and pick up an inch or two then again NAM is the coldest guidance too

2.61" in the rain gauge .. most of the 0.7" of sleet/zr from last night has melted

31.8/30 mostly over to freezing rain now with sleet mixing in with heavier radar returns

30.6/29 sn/pl/zr mix .. mostly sleet tho, some nearly pea size

30.3/28 sleet/freezing drizzle mix starting to get a little ice accretion

32.2/28 mostly snow grains but some legit flakes in there as well in heavier bursts

yeah temps have been steady for the past few hours but DPs continue to drop, down to 39/24 imby ORH went from 36/27 to 37/20 over the last hour

39/28 temp fall has slowed but still DPs continue to drop 2-3 degrees / hr

Not ideal but it is what it is .. wish we still had the milford pd family ones

Can we lock in the ARW? I was waiting for it to have a weenie run seems legit - temps dropping into the teens at 12z on 4/15

Definitely a very good point - and if it were earlier in the season I would totally be in favor of that happening. As y'all know, often times in these situations the magnitude of the cold is underdone and the tendency to displace/modify it is overdone. Having said that, it is tough to find any cons for this set-up other than the fact its mid April! Some of pros: -Nearly ideal wind direction for low lvl CAA from the N/NE, also at like 20-30 kts just above the surface -Strong High pressure situated in a great spot in Quebec that is nosing into Maine - nice CAD signature -Advecting in dp in the 0s and 10s from Maine throughout the day Sunday .. has to be one of the more impressive low dp feeds I've ever seen in an icing situation Honestly would't surprise me if it took until later in the morning Monday to really dislodge the sub freezing air nw of 495/90

18z NAM coming in colder again .. but check out the 850 temps and how they are modified by the terrain. Really cool stuff highlighting how the cold air drains /banks against the terrain in areas east of the ORH hills, CT valley, and Hudson valley