Eskimo Joe

Yup. Then it was gone in a week.

Yup. We've really devolved into a winter climate more akin to Georgia or South Carolina.

Overnight GFS showing a rapid strengthening of the polar vortex after this episode. Yikes.

I think we know where this is headed folks

Am I missing something, or do the 12z Euro/ENS and GEFS just dump all the cold air out west and just torch the east coast.

Well said Bob. Good luck to your backyard this winter.

I'd take a continuous series of light to moderate events that don't erode a block, vs one "big dog" storm that melts off in 4 days. Snow-on-snow is the best!

Yes that's definitely occurring. Hopefully we can get the PDO to return to a more neutral if not slightly positive state in the long term.

To be clear, I'm not debbing on this winter. We have several favorable factors working in our favor thus far, and as @WxUSAF has noted these torches advertised in the medium to long range have been muted as we close on the date.

While I hope to be wrong, I agree. We're investing a lot of hope in an early SSWE and the past 10 years have largely been putrid for snow lovers in this subforum.

Oof, not good to see.

With our climate becoming increasingly hostile to snow each winter, we need as many things to go right as possible.

18z GFS/GEFS shows a legitimate fail mode for us, and one that I'm always concerned about happening. The trough dumps out west, flexes the southeast ridge, and we just torch while the central and western US score. Hope this is just a fluke.

My goals before Christmas: Outstanding: multiple snow events, whether all advisory/warning/combination of these Great: One warning level snowfall event. Good: One advisory level snowfall event Bad: No snow Shut the Blinds: patterns fails and we get back to zonal puke