Eskimo Joe

I think you get 3" of snow from this.

12z GFS now has a surface low off the Jersey coast, which allows precip to fill in better. Looks like 0.5" QPF line bumps back from Delaware to the Harford/Cecil County line.

That thing is the Lucy of CAMs. Always the warmest, driest model it seems.

It's a solid run for sure.

3:30 pm was when Mt. Holly would push their products. You always wanted to see the crawl on the lower third go "...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE GREATER DELAWARE VALLEY..." Pure magic.

Wild Guess: NWS just modified the winter weather advisory for DC and I-95 south. Wonder if they're going warnings for Carroll, NW Baltimore, and NW Harford?

Can't wait to see the mesonet snow depth maps for this one. Really excited for this event.

Even better when you can loop their old Christmas play lists: https://twcclassics.com/audio/playlists-christmas-2009.html

Real weenies know to play old TWC music from good winters of yore while watching models come in. It's the real magic.

Great post from @wxmvpete

Wonder if the advisory gets bumped west to Frederick County?

12z NAM would imply that BWI, DCA, and IAD get to 100% of their December snowfall climo.

12z NAM/HRRR would imply a solid 4" - 6" for York, Lancaster, and Lebanon counties. Might be a last minute victory here folks.

This is a great write up by Tomer Burg on what the HRRR may be sniffing out