Eskimo Joe

NBM jumped significantly. Near record snowfall south of DC to RIC.

With so many events, we tend to see the 06z guidance waffle or dry up. With the 06z Euro et al beefing up, it's a great sign. We're almost at the point where a "fail" would only be 4" - 8".

E/E rule!

Saw a couple questions about blizzard potential. We'd need a coastal to rapidly deepen as it pulls away. None of the guidance currently suggests that, so it looks like that is off the table with this event.

With such a sustained, power ful press of arctic air coming down, I'm not sure how further north this climbs. In some sense, this reminds me of the December 2009 snow event for PA. There was the last second nudge north that brough warning level snowfall (6"+) to the southern tier, but the cutoff was sharp. In eastern PA, Allentown was almost smoking cirrus while it was piling up in Philly and Lancaster.

That's a prime setup for us to win big time.

Latest qpf from the National Blend of Models.

Oh wow that's classic for a KU event in these parts.

What an awesome batch of overnight runs. To make things even better, I get to be on a panel at IMD today that moderate by Dr. Louis Uccellini.

It's the PTSD talking. I get it.

It was great. No complaints.

Good catch. Euro may be trying to do that thing where it slows the storm down but it's longer in length and that allows everyone to win.

Yup. Numerous members now have double digit hits regionwide.