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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    The CFS weeklies with this look could be interesting for us
  2. Kmlwx
    Cherry picked but just for lulz - it's one of those panels from the NCAR AI convective site. That site seemingly tends to run overly robust to say the least. https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ
  3. Kmlwx
    Would fit well with our little local "tornado alley" down near EZF and across the bay into the La Plata/Southern Maryland area. Seems some of the guidance (not that it matters much at this range) wants to push the main threat to our south. That AI convective NCAR page is honking a bit for the Fri-->Sat timeframe though.
  4. Kmlwx
    If nothing else - instability looks better than prior events so far this year. Still so far out - we'll see. (my famous two words)
  5. Kmlwx
    Still out in the long range...but the GFS would seem to suggest the doldrums may be coming to an end. CIPS is also starting to latch onto increased severe potential out beyond 200 hours. The 06z GFS run had decent parameters on SEVERAL days out in the long range.
  6. Kmlwx
    I have one eye on the May 17-18 time period. GFS has periodically been showing decent parameters and shear. But of course...it's WAY out there in fantasy range.
  7. Kmlwx
    Could be a a bit of both. But in my 33 years of living in the area (stints in different spots but mostly the same spot near Colesville, MD) I have seen hail larger than pea size ZERO times....in 33 years. The largest hail I've ever seen at any location was maybe marble sized and it was not at my normal home location. So what's the explanation for Colesville, MD lacking hail? Willing to run with the bay influence that Eskimo Joe mentioned...but I'd venture a guess that if you were to take a similar sized area as "Baltimore City" proper, you'd probably find pretty similar hail statistics in the general DC/Baltimore region. Of course, there will likely be anomalies here or there but on average I'd bet it's similar region wide.
  8. Kmlwx
    Adding...of course if you compare all areas vs your tiny area. You're going to get a sense that hail is "tons more common" but you need to compare your slice of land to a similar sized plot to get any accurate apples to apples comparison.
  9. Kmlwx
    Large hail is a rare event in ANY given location. You're biased because it's your backyard. Think about why the SPC probabilities are "within 25 miles of a point" The probs are never "damaging wind at your exact location" Even factoring in the city boundaries, it is not a lot of geographical space.
  10. Kmlwx
    40% chance of t'storm watch.
  11. Kmlwx
    The storm that went over MBY cooled me down from 85ish down to 66. It's already back up to 70 now with the sun back out. Dewpoint is steamy...
  12. Kmlwx
    Other than the storms along the Mason/Dixon line last weekend, it's seemingly been a really, really, really quiet stretch for severe on the east coast. Looks like Tue is going to be focused well to our north and west and it peters out by Wednesday. I'm not sure I'm seeing any appreciable "big signal" to exit the boring period. I've been peaking at the long range stuff and CSU/CIPS/NCAR stuff and don't really see anything on the horizon. Similar to winter, it's possible a smaller event comes into focus once it gets to short range view...but for now we are snoozing!
  13. Kmlwx
    Some major damage over the weekend in parts of the area it seems. Saw big branches and debris along I-70 from PA into Maryland. Looks like things will be relatively quiet - maybe a window for some strong storms next Tue or so.
  14. Kmlwx
    This looks to be turning into exactly what the HRRR forecasted most of the day (save for a few runs). Looks like big time cells go WAY south of the metro areas and then a mod-heavy batch of rainfall sweeps through for the rest of us with some embedded thunder. Credit to the HRRR for actually seemingly getting the idea right way earlier today and sticking to it for the most part. Save for a few off runs last night and one or two during the day today - it held pretty steady once it trended away from the Maryland/DC area Uh tracks.
  15. Kmlwx
    Looks like a big shield of stratiform rain with embedded thunder
  16. Kmlwx
    Good amount of lightning with that stuff so far. But pretty compact cells that have that "struggling updraft" look to them. We'll see if they can grow upscale.
  17. Kmlwx
    Radar presentation from LWX is kind of odd - unusual to see a big area of precip and then stuff embedded in it.
  18. Kmlwx
    Already lightning even with the mini cells/showers. WV having a heck of a day...
  19. Kmlwx
    My "goal" is elevated thunderstorms at this point. Still can get that with low dew points at the surface.
  20. Kmlwx
    Looks like 17z will have a Warn-on-Forecast domain run centered over West Virginia.
  21. Kmlwx
    Perhaps not dry - but I wouldn't bank on severe if you're going by the HRRR up here. HRRR could be wrong, of course.
  22. Kmlwx
    HRRR continues to prefer well south...it might still be trending south with the activity too... If I was just going off of the HRRR, I'd probably stop even saying the Potomac as the dividing line...more like somewhere between I-66 and I-64.
  23. Kmlwx
    HREF also focuses most UH tracks south of the Potomac. I think this is reasonable given those areas are much more likely to be south of the boundary and perhaps more susceptible to surface-based convection. Not ruling out storms for MBY - but I'm less enthused up this way (for now).
  24. Kmlwx
    HRRR is focusing the most intense activity south of the Potomac. NAM nest looks better for MBY...and all that to say it's still probably elevated stuff.
  25. Kmlwx
    I saw some breaks in the clouds on the way into work this morning.
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