Kmlwx

Adding as well that we have to remember DC/Baltimore aren't traditionally "snow towns" - sure we go on runs but the trick is to set expectations in check. Enjoy the snow falling as much as you can - and you'll find that going from a 12 inch storm to a 6 inch storm doesn't hurt nearly as much. Life is just too short to hand wring when we just aren't a snow region.

Nope - I feel pretty locked in to a 5+ inch storm which while would be "disappointing" I love to see snow fall and I love tracking. My NFL team lost in humiliating fashion this year and my other hobby (plane spotting) has a super low success rate outside of airshows too. I'm looking forward to seeing flakes falling and a nice blanket of snow. Since the upper end of this in MBY is not a true HECS (2ft+) while more snow is always better - I'm fundamentally treating this as though I'll be happy with 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, (you get the point) inches. I actually think it would be cool to encase it in sleet too. But cold powder is fine too. I just want it to snow more than an inch or two. I think that's essentially a lock in MBY.

Ya'll are so predictable...just saying

And some of it ends up being because in the biggest snowstorms, snow is pushed into school parking lots. Not excusing "needless" closures by any means - but I know that was a major thing after the 2010 storms.

TEAL74 flight (Recon) is airborne and feet wet off the west coast for their mission.

"At least it's not hour 300+" But that would be a wild progression. Imagine this weekend's storm, icebox cold, a 1-2 inch refresher or cartopper on Thursday and then a deform beatdown the following weekend.

I think you are right - though we haven't necessarily done that in a while. And there will always be those that just ignore the separated threads anyway. Every now and then I think some folks on here want to treat it more as a fast-paced Discord server rather than a message board/forum.

"The trend is really alarming for MBY" "Hate to see this" "It's trending so bad for MBY"

This is incredibly eloquent and well-written. As always, @North Balti Zen - great post! I think @bncho's ceiling is certainly so much higher than folks like me - just gotta get past the "growing pains" part of an AmericanWx user/weather enthusiast

Also I think people underestimate how much time the younger folks have in HS/college to spend on the forums - again....that was me in the past. I can barely stay up past 9pm anymore....and having a full time+ job takes up all other time. I'll never forget being weenie tagged on Eastern. Put me in my place REAL quick.

I don't think we will ever have a true solution for model run PBP organization. The solutions are either too strict or too loose. It's too hard to find a middle ground. On one side, I'd LOVE during storm times to see model PBP restricted to a group of like 10 perhaps trusted people (and have red taggers exempt from any restrictions, of course). That probably won't work though... I'm all for encouraging a friendly environment - but there seems to be this sense that the youngsters feel they need to post as much as possible when they are excited to inflate their post counts. Quality over quantity folks! Being first doesn't get you extra credit or anything. Like I've said before...I was in your shoes before too...a lot of us were, in fact. But you've just got to reign it in a bit. @DDweatherman - I was in no way, shape or form "blasting teenagers" by the way. But there is a recurring theme going on and for those of us that ARE standing on the sidelines reading - it really, really, really clutters the main thread. I know you know that you and I were BOTH guilty of being kids in the past. But perhaps you and I have taken different approaches to this. Not saying one way is better than others - but as a POSTER, I all but try to disappear in the winter unless I'm posting obs during the storm. Posting fast and furiously and bantering in the storm thread is contributing nothing if it's lacking in quality.

Gotta love this... I'm not watching the models roll in other than here so I assume Randy is correct? But I won't jump to conclusions.

Seems like there's been some hints on guidance of a potential snowpack refresher of like an inch or two on or around Thursday of next week. We can tackle that once the first storm is "out of the way"

Some people have different post per page settings. Not only that, I’d think many people use the “show latest posts” so they won’t miss your post. I’m not sure you’ll lose many or any post views from positioning is my point! Unless I’ve missed like 10+ pages, I always try to read through all the stuff I’ve missed

Probably supercomputer time being limited. It might be shared with other tasks.

If it was truly from a weather app - it was probably generated on model output with little or no human input.

Surface temps are not the ultimate determining factor for ratios though. You can be 15 degrees at the surface and have poor ratio flakes.

Matches with what I'm seeing!

I did try T-Mobile home internet too. I’m a nerd and actually have all of these connections available.

@LongRanger moving this here but just curious what you are seeing with the NWS cert. i have looked via a FiOS connected desktop and not seeing what you’re seeing. Also checked via T-Mobile phone and iPad as well as a Verizon connected cell. Also tried with all extensions disabled, both with and without custom DNS settings. I just cannot duplicate the invalid cert you are seeing. And actually add an Xfinity connection now too showing valid.

I get the sense that some of our younger and newer posters feel like the more they post, that they will literally "will" the storm closer. Friendly annual reminder that your post count means nothing. We have established "regulars" here with post counts well under what you'd think. Sure, many of us are in the thousands. But who cares? Take it from somebody who grew up on Eastern and then here....you will not gain any favor with people by beating the same horse over and over and over and over again - and posting 3 word posts all day and night. It clutters the thread. Most of us have gone through the phase you are going through. It will either snow or it won't, It's okay to be excited...but you don't have to reply to EVERY post. And not EVERY post needs to be morphed into an inside joke. Sit back and learn a little. Enjoy the hunt. It's okay to read a bit more than you post. THINK about whether you REALLY need to be post every time you go to hit the reply button. In all likelihood (and I mean this in a lovingly/mentoring way) your post will, in the realm of things, be barely a speck in terms of significance.

Maybe it was Master of Disaster My memory isn't what it used to be in my youth

This sounds much more tame than your doomsday ice storm scenario from year's past. I vaguely remember you mentioning things like toilets not flushing because of power failure at wastewater treatment facilities and such. Maybe I am misremembering

I think @Eskimo Joe - outlined a emergency management nightmare scenario a few years ago as it pertained to ice. It was a true horrific narrative if I remember...

It could be a myriad of things. But also - things that are on like decadal cycles may be to blame. Consider that the modeling tends to be more stable at range for southern stream dominant systems. For many years now there has been a lot of northern stream influence - which the models objectively (not subjectively) are worse at predicting.