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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Ehhh I dunno if we'll be able to pull a mod risk this year. Thursday does continue to bear watching. SPC discussion on it didn't sound super tasty though.
  2. Kmlwx
    Wow - look at the severe analogs from CIPS from the GEFS (last night's 0z) - this is for THURSDAY
  3. Kmlwx
    Day 3 slight already
  4. Kmlwx
    It's a stats thing more than anything. Areas that DO receive hail are actually very isolated. It just seems like "every other place gets hail other than X location" because you're looking at a small geographic area. This is similar to why SPC forecasts are for "severe within 25mi of a point" I would bet that if you plotted hail reports from a statistically relevant period - the areas within the city boundaries have a similar return period than other areas. TL;DR - Hail in unusual in general in any area within our region.
  5. Kmlwx
    About as lame of a 3pm radar as you could get.
  6. Kmlwx
    Now we have one lol
  7. Kmlwx
    Seems to be the deb from a few days out usually. Though NAM usually goes too hardcore. Also when the FV3 and old GFS were running in parallel - I noticed on the COD website that the FV3 consistently put out lower supercell composite numbers.
  8. Kmlwx
    We are pretty close to the convective temp that @Eskimo Joe indicated. College Park is reporting a dew down to 63.5 - most stations are higher around here though.
  9. Kmlwx
    Sorry. The only thing I'm hearing is that we are in for an outbreak.
  10. Kmlwx
    Yeah hodographs on the 12z NAM soundings for Thursday look awfully tasty.
  11. Kmlwx
  12. Kmlwx
    12km NAM for Thursday (at range) looks pretty robust. Bears watching as SPC has been hinting about the timeframe.
  13. Kmlwx
    A few of the stations in the area have ticked the dewpoints down a bit. Still pockets of 70+ but some have come down to the mid 60s if that makes a difference.
  14. Kmlwx
    Seems likely we'll get there. Sunshine still seems to be ample.
  15. Kmlwx
    Good news is sunshine appears to be plentiful.
  16. Kmlwx
    Latest NAM nest rolling in doesn't look half bad on the satellite view.
  17. Kmlwx
    The HRDPS goes pretty bonkers for this afternoon/evening
  18. Kmlwx
    Pattern does seem to look good for multiple days of storms at least within the general area as a whole (not speaking specifically about severe). I don't see any elevated odds for anything like a derecho or big outbreak. CIPS does seem supportive of a severe threat for the next 4-5 days or so, though. Give me a nice cluster of storms forming a cold pool.
  19. Kmlwx
    June can still be friendly to us - if we can get some decent cells to fire today it could be okay for some area. But yeah - region-wide event today looks unlikely.
  20. Kmlwx
    Day of Destruction
  21. Kmlwx
    Wow look at NAM nest for tomorrow PM
  22. Kmlwx
    Are you bullish on this threat window?
  23. Kmlwx
    CIPS was down from around late afternoon yesterday until this morning. Looks like the 0z run did not come out properly. We'll have to wait for the 12z run for any new information from that side of things. The severe weather CIPS page (which only runs at 0z) won't refresh until tomorrow morning it seems.
  24. Kmlwx
    Nice to see GEFS being so robust on that.
  25. Kmlwx
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