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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Possible rotation near Antietam?
  2. Kmlwx
    Latest HRRR has initiation around the metros around 18z.
  3. Kmlwx
    12z HRRR also looks good. I'm in so far for today. Pending meltdown runs that take it all away, of course
  4. Kmlwx
    11z HRRR is really nice for a lot of us. I'd take that in a heartbeat. @nw baltimore wx - hope you're staying cool! Power outages are no fun. My family was without power for something like 6.5 days after the blizzards in 2010 and like 5 or so after the derecho.
  5. Kmlwx
    NAM nest sucks except for a lone supercell-type storm that goes right over DC. Distinct possibility some of us blank on all 3 days...
  6. Kmlwx
    That might end up being one of the sole severe reports in this CWA.
  7. Kmlwx
    Pity meso.
  8. Kmlwx
    Line bowing out in SCentral PA might get into NE Maryland.
  9. Kmlwx
    Weird warning polygon on that cell. Wonder if it's an error.
  10. Kmlwx
    Hail marker showing up in Frederick County on the developing cell. Maybe it can be a cap breaker. ETA: Annnnnnd it's gone
  11. Kmlwx
    I'm starting to lean towards the bust side of things.
  12. Kmlwx
    It's to account for the complex in WV it seems.
  13. Kmlwx
    I'm starting to hope for the weenie stuff - outflow triggering stuff for us, cold pool establishing etc
  14. Kmlwx
    I just hope we don't end up going 0 for 3. Be nice to track a nice storm rolling through the area even if not my own BY.
  15. Kmlwx
    This is a big factor for sure. Extended tracking always makes busts more painful. Imagine having a D8 severe outlook go poof once it hits day 1
  16. Kmlwx
    Most recent HRRR runs are pretty pitiful for some of us.
  17. Kmlwx
    Thus far the models with the intense activity remaining in PA have been correct. Still early, though. That DC split is looking MIGHTY so far
  18. Kmlwx
    The other nice thing is the severe weenies tend to not have a meltdown when storms don't work out. We move on after complaining a little bit. Not speaking for everyone - but there's a lot more of a "what happens happens" mentality with severe.
  19. Kmlwx
    The only difference is we tend to not crash the forum during severe season
  20. Kmlwx
    Not a particularly robust meso discussion.
  21. Kmlwx
    Cell going up near Hancock
  22. Kmlwx
    Ah - the good old "SEE TEXT" - that was an amazing example of how tough to predict severe can be. Some of our most memorable events I feel like are underforecast by SPC from leads.
  23. Kmlwx
    Wooo - some of what I read is sticking (finally). I've come so far since 2006.
  24. Kmlwx
    The way I've seen it explained - the bars (horizontal) coming from the left side of the sounding indicate that the sounding is heavily contaminated (I guess from lift/precip???)
  25. Kmlwx
    Just south of FDK tomorrow - contaminated obviously
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