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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Looking north from Columbia
  2. Kmlwx
    More boundaries getting tossed out around the area. Looks like something sitting along Virginia Route 7 - with this much fuel some storms could definitely go big briefly. Should be mostly pulse stuff.
  3. Kmlwx
    Structure from a distance looks really nice - even an anvil maybe starting. Will upload the timelapse to Youtube later on once it finishes.
  4. Kmlwx
    There's a fast moving outflow boundary coming NE from the storms in VA. That could ignite some additional storm development into the metro areas. Radar is looking pretty lit up to the west and southwest.
  5. Kmlwx
    I can see the storm SW of York, PA from my apartment in Columbia. Looks decent from here - have a hyperlapse running on it right now.
  6. Kmlwx
    The wind gust product on the COD model page shows that line packing 50-55kt winds.
  7. Kmlwx
    18z NAM nest brings a bow echo type complex on a direct hit through the metro area tomorrow PM.
  8. Kmlwx
    12z and 18z NAM were pretty consistent with sending a significant cluster of storms across the region on Monday afternoon. I realize it is laughable to use this product - but both also had a strong UD helicity swath somewhere in the region (different places on each run). Monday has potential to be a decent severe day if the front doesn't clear the area too quickly.
  9. Kmlwx
    I was just driving down to my parent's house from Columbia and when I was heading west on the ICC I saw the big storm in the distance...I always underestimate how far you can see in the sky. I figured it was in MoCo already - pulled up Radarscope and saw it was still out along the Blue Ridge. Looks like it's falling apart now. Might not bring any relief to areas east.
  10. Kmlwx
    Did you check the username
  11. Kmlwx
    What do you mean? Like radar site? I'd use KLWX and the local tdwr locations at the airports. If you mean app - Radarscope for mobile devices and GR (all products) grlevelx.com
  12. Kmlwx
    HRRR's when the line was starting to form didn't even have it.
  13. Kmlwx
    WIsh we had monster shear.
  14. Kmlwx
    Storm near CHO is going big time.
  15. Kmlwx
    Somebody didn't calibrate.
  16. Kmlwx
    Now we just need a heat clearing derecho at the end of this horrid stretch.
  17. Kmlwx
    Tree down on house in Forest Glen
  18. Kmlwx
    Nice wind core with the warned storm
  19. Kmlwx
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1434.html
  20. Kmlwx
    Mesoscale Discussion 1434 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Areas affected...northern VA...MD...DE and southeast PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111651Z - 111815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon. A few damaging gusts are possible and trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are beginning to develop over the higher terrain of central and northern VA into southeast PA. Cloud cover across this area has not been as much of a hindrance compared to areas to the north, and temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s to low 90s F with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F. Midlevel lapse rates are rather poor, but this warm and very moist airmass is resulting in MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This area lies on the southern periphery of modest effective shear of 20-30 kt, with high PW values approaching 2 inches. Upper forcing for ascent will modestly increase as the upper shortwave trough shifts eastward toward the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians later this afternoon, but overall severity/organization will be limited somewhat in the absence of steep midlevel lapse rates and strong deep layer flow. Nevertheless, some forward propagating clusters will be possible through storm and outflow interactions, which could result in a few strong/severe gusts through the afternoon. Convective trends will be monitored and a watch may become necessary in the next few hours. ..Leitman/Grams.. 07/11/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
  21. Kmlwx
    Surprised there's not a pity meso yet with all the pop up general showers and storms around.
  22. Kmlwx
    Should be a bit faster moving so that might be one thing that prevents massive flooding. Reflectivity on some of the model output looks good - but yeah seems like an isolated day for actual severe.
  23. Kmlwx
    Calm down you two.
  24. Kmlwx
    Wasn't speaking for location specifics - more the fact that each time I've looked at them this year they've shown like tiny little cells or nothing at all for most of our events.
  25. Kmlwx
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019071012&fh=6 one of 'em
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