Kmlwx
-
Posts
13,108 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Kmlwx
-
It's broken right now - should congeal as it comes east. Could intensify further. We'll see. Per mesoanalysis - the best combo of ingredients is currently sitting a hair west of DC proper. And then running north and south.
-
Pressure surge behind the line is intensifying. 4mb rises in 2 hours.
-
It seems to reduce the tornado wording a touch from the watch probabilities but yeah the "rapid increase" text is nice.
-
Actually was a 19z sounding from LWX https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/19103119_OBS/ Shear is (as expected) very impressive. Instability is present - but nothing ground breaking.
-
The watch probs in our watch and the one to the south would seem to indicate we could go moderate. I'm not sure it'll happen but if there's an event this could be it - especially with potential high impact on Halloween.
-
You've gotta wonder with those watch probabilities if hatching could be introduced at 20z.
-
Agree - but more fuel for the fire.
-
Those are absurd probabilities for Halloween. 30% of EF2+ whoa... "A couple of intense tornadoes possible"
-
17z HRRR brings a nice looking updraft helicity swath through western parts of the DC area. Like western Montgomery County.
-
Yeah today could be a legit deal if we get more than just a bit of sunshine. Line is already taking shape nicely. Lots of wind reports with it already - which is impressive given that it's going through relatively low population density areas.
-
Yeah I don't see any sustained clearing - but definitely some pockets where the sun could pop out. Any sun could really boost instability so we max potential.
-
If we get sun I wonder if we get an outlook upgrade at 20z. I doubt it - I think we are at the max SPC would go for a late season event. But it's never out of the question.
-
Satellite shows some pockets of clearing ahead of the line associated with the tornado watch. Question will be whether that becomes clouded over more with stuff popping ahead of the line...or will the clearing sustain and move over our area later on. In my mind, any clearing is just bonus instability.
-
The RAP has 47kts of 0-1km shear for a time in some areas this PM. That's legit.
-
Pretty good slug of rain in the Rockville/Potomac area right now. Hope we can get a peak of sunshine or two to boost instability even more. Let's go big.
-
WOW - That is a bold Outlook from SPC for this late in the year. Let's shoot for a moderate at 20z
-
That's a pretty strongly worded meso discussion for October on the east coast.
-
RAP (FWIW) has like 1000 CAPE. Instability has been trending upward more. A few days ago I thought we'd be lucky to get 500J/KG
-
I pulled a sounding from the 12z 3km NAM and it had a 500 value for 0-1km SRH it was 800 for 0-3km I think. That's absurd. 40+kts of shear in the 0-1km range.
-
EF-5 tracing the beltway during the end of rush hour. Mark my words.
-
That's probably broadbrushed due to the general large area of risk. Maybe more of a CYA than anything. But large 5% TOR can sometimes be a prelude to a little 10% area being introduced later. I think Reed Timmer was a bit much last night...
-
What product is that?
-
There was a tornado watch just south of LWX in October of last year (10/11)
-
@mappy - WOW SO JUDGEY. ALL TORNADOES ARE DANGEROUS. How dare you undermine QLCS cutie tornadoes.
-
@yoda - I'm in for "interesting weather" other than what we've been getting lately with just sun or rain. I'm *not* in for a widespread damaging event. LWX in typical fashion will find a way to issue 30+ SVRs tomorrow though (I kid in good fun)
