Kmlwx
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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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WTOP weather forecast mentioned storms with damaging winds and flooding rains for tomorrow - SPC is not impressed lol.
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May just be selective memory - but I feel like mod risks bust for us less often than ENH. I think they are way more willing to throw out an ENH vs a moderate for us - they are (with a few exceptions) only willing to put out a mod for us when something like a derecho or high end tor risk day seems in the bag.
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Honestly I feel like I've seen it go both ways. We've had plenty of days of being in a low end slight or "See Text" before marginal was a thing that turned out to be pretty impressive days (nothing derecho - but just higher end stuff in general). On the flip side - we've definitely seen days of high end slights or even moderates go completely up in smoke. Usually it's cloudcover or capping or whatever. Always something to blow the forecast.
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Models don't look terrible. Could be some interesting storms to watch this PM.
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NAM is back to being decent around 21z Saturday for parts of the area. Mid level lapse rates look pretty sucky...but too bad we don't get SE winds like that with many of our events.
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That's what NAM sim radar looks like at 84 hours.
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We've seen it on model soundings a few times I'm sure.
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That NAM run would seem to indicate the battleground between good action and boring will be the Potomac River. It's the NAM at range, though.
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Pretty meh and quiet overall.
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EJ has been much more bullish on events this year so far.
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Well there's your problem then... I'm not familiar with the CE up there but I cannot believe he would say something like that. When you're at a funnel point like that it's going to flood catastrophically when you get that much rain in a short amount of time.
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Yeah the amount of people on social media saying "ENOUGH IS ENOUGH SOMETHING NEEDS TO BE DONE TO PREVENT THIS" is kind of surprising to me. Do people not know how powerful water is? The topography and layout of Ellicott City is conducive to tragic flooding like this. If you for example create barriers somewhere (assuming they hold and are effective) - you probably cause a flood someplace else next time. Was just in a tweet thread with a person who keeps insisting that "we shouldn't have to just accept it and deal with it - something needs to be done this time" - The user kept talking about "better drainage" - yeah...not going to work with topography like that and 10 inches of rain.
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Have barely seen any rain here IMBY. Pretty incredible what has been unfolding to the north in Ellicott City.
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LOL the latest HRRR has a tiny spec of 85kts on the wind gust product. Doubtful.
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Yeah...I'd love to see some more easterly component to the entire complex.
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You can kind of see a DC split opening up
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We need to hope for a good cold pool I guess to sustain/strengthen this line.
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Special soundings.
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Is that your call? All aboard the severe bus!
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I'm kind of giddy about the radar at this point. It looks very very promising to the NW of the region.
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There' some showery junk forming down near Harrisonburg and Staunton in VA. Hopefully that's not the start of popcorn stuff ruining the instability.
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Could be me being a wx weenie but I think the current radar matches the HRRR better than the NAM snoozer.
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Warmth is building even up into Johnstown, PA and Pitt area. It's just this little wedge we are still dealing with. Needs to breakup relatively soon to juice us up.
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Also interesting to note that MCD highlights areas that are very stable so far (locally in the DC/Baltimore metros.)
