Kmlwx
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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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I think we might end up being just a BIT too far south for the meat and potatoes. But we'll continue to monitor. Maybe it shifts around.
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SPC and the GFS seem to like Sunday afternoon. It looks like the best threat/parameters may reside to our north, but we are at least close enough to monitor now.
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Important to remember that surface wind doesn't necessarily indicate what's going on higher up...and vice versa I suppose
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6z NAM nest actually looks okay for the DC area later today. I'm sure we'll see some storms pop - we'll see who gets lucky.
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CIPS extended range is really honking in the 168hr time frame for a severe event from the Mid-Atlantic to the SE/Gulf Coast areas.
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DCA is probably getting ROCKED right now.
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That wind core is going to go right over DCA...
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@yoda - They used to use the 65mph level a ton in the 90s and 2000s. Seems they like to use the 10mph intervals now. Still not seeing any northern extension. Going to be close for me. I fully expect these clouds will stick around long enough to sour my chance to see the comet tonight.
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I may get grazed here in the Hanover/Arundel Mills area unless there is some more development on the northern end.
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Interestingly - mesoanalysis actually has a relative minimum of DCAPE locally. Better numbers to the north and south. Not so great right around the DC metro.
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Definitely not saying it hasn't happened - but I thin those numbers are much more common with warnings (before the criteria was changed to 1 inch hail). In the old days I remember seeing 65mph a lot too with warnings and watches. But 70 for wind and 1-1.5 for hail is about even with the average severe watch around our parts.
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Those are pretty standard numbers for out severe tstm watches IMO.
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Wow. Early meso with high probs. Nice.
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12z NAM nest is a whiff for the DC area
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Some of the high res models are unusually robust for today (on the reflectivity maps). The ARW, ARW2 and the NMM all are lighting the area up pretty good this afternoon.
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Lovely...can I stay on vacation for another 2 weeks then?
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Coming back from vacation tomorrow. Are we tracking anything upcoming in the near future, or is it just wall to wall heat?
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If nothing else, at least it has made for some interesting radar watching today. Too bad not every day of heat waves can result in this. Weather has been excessively boring lately.
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Man...I wish every day of a heat wave would behave like this. Great little storm in Arundel Mills.
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This stuff forming around DC, if it's not relatively intense - may preclude a stronger threat later due to cooling of the air from rain.
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It's pretty cloud filled here in Colesville, MD. Some light returns are starting to show up on radar locally as well.
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The CU field is mentioned in the latest mesoscale discussion. SPC thinks that the area of CU running from the DC area up to SEPA may be a corridor for new development. Also mentions the surging outflow from the storms to the north and east. On visible sat, the field in general looks a little more agitated now. The outflow is clearly visible on the satellite images as it is just barely into the NEern tip of Maryland and into Delaware.
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I think we have to hope that the outflow from the Philly activity can join up with some of the boundaries like the bay breeze and such around us to trigger stuff. Dews have some down at some stations in the area - still high along the bay.
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Visible satellite of that Philly cluster looks like a nuke went off! They are getting walloped.
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5000 SBCAPE on mesoanalysis.
