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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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LWX discussion is pretty bullish for later in the week too.
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Latest day 2 outlook extends slight to the coast
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Good to see even early-ish in the season there isn't a shortage of chances...even if it isn't high end. It's still very early.
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Bullish is what I like to hear.
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Would be a fun night if that were to verify.
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The 12z 12km NAM also looks kind of good for overnight Sunday into Monday...but we all know how nocturnal stuff usually works for us. Unless that speeds up to be Sunday afternoon it probably won't be much.
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LWX in their early AM discussion seems very bullish despite them also mentioning uncertainty for late next week. Too far out to say anything for now.
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Luckily it's 8 days away.
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Way out there - but the GFS has a decent setup it seems for next Friday...
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Instability will be the question mark with Friday. Shear should be more than sufficient. Looks like a chance later in the weekend maybe too. (Sunday?)
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Friday will probably be all about the CAPE. If the CAPE is too low it'll probably be a pencil thin line of gusty showers.
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Wow - you're right it looks really nice.
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We are still pretty early season. Though I guess La Plata was an April event. Friday would seem to me to be the better option for now.
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Meh
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Still looks like Monday holds some marginal potential for severe. Probably a good shot at a few rumbles of thunder at least. LWX mentions storms in their PM forecast discussion. Nothing looks particularly robust - so certainly no outbreaks or widespread severe for us.
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I'm not in yet - just making that clear
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The only times it is acceptable for dews to be above 60 is when it will bring a severe risk. #ChangeMyMind The setup doesn't look super robust but at least it's something to track.
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The old GFS has some severe risk maybe next week.
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Get ready for ample bugs and humidity. Hopefully we get some nice, warm (but not hot) and non-humid weather before the inevitable happens.
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That's hail according to LWX. ETA: Weird - the system took the wrong quote. My bad Lessburg!
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Warning in effect for parts of the metro area.
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I had hail in Columbia just before 9pm. Smaller than pea sized - a few good CG strikes too. That's a win in my book.
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NAM 3k was pretty dry if not completely dry for a lot of locations in our area.
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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
Kmlwx replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Gotcha. Honestly - it's weather enthusiasts being weather enthusiasts. I don't think you can fault people for tracking what they love. But that's just me. I don't know your wife and am sorry she suffers from SAD. But I'm going to track weather regardless of whether it's convenient for others. I don't feel as though that's insensitive. Just my two cents though. We are cool - I get what you are saying. I'm just not sure a weather forum should cease tracking weather just because it doesn't match the season. -
The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand
Kmlwx replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Totally understand - and mods I apologize for derailing the thread a bit. Using this logic I could also say it's a bit insensitive to hope for warmth because I suffer from horrible allergies. I like warm weather - but everyone has their likes/dislikes. Of course we like snow - honestly that is the biggest reason EUSWX and AmWx were created - snow tracking. Most people on here will track exciting weather - whether it's wind, storms, hurricanes or snow. But it's still astronomical winter for a few days. Let the snow weenies chase snow. I'm still keeping on eye open for flakes. None of it is intended to "wrong" you or "bully" you.